|
cinci zoo sniper posted:There also seems to be more confusion than I would expect to be on what I consider Clancychat. To me, Clancychat is any conversation on military particulars that is removed from the currently observed events by either a significant passage of time, or a lengthy chain of assumptions. What counts as current, significant, or lengthy here I leave to my discretion on an individual basis. And also I assume any nuclear/natoboots/hussars speculation related even to current events, because that gets into bad territory without even needing multiple chains. But yeah about the other stuff, I appreciate the focus on current events even if this thread took my probationary innocence (for mostly reasonable reasons). With the polarization surrounding this war it's so easy to get drawn into a tribalistic shouting/trolling match about some tangential subject. Having a thread mostly free of such is one of the reasons I'm still happy for this gay old comedy forum, despite occasional urges to waste my time in other ways. GABA ghoul posted:Why is it so hard for Russia to appointment a supreme commander for the entire northern front/the zoo of different militaries? I understand that everyone prefers to run their own little fiefdom, but surely Putin can just force them to? Why do the gangster republics even have independent command at all? It's hard to be a successful supreme commander when the very goal of the 'special military operation' aren't well-defined. Putin could find the most brilliant master of strategy to take command and make him look like a fool by giving him an impossible and/or poorly defined task. "Demilitarize Ukraine, take all major cities and kill all the nazis" is not a very tangible goal. Also, I suspect that Putin, like most dictators, does this weird mix of micromanagement and aggressively vague leadership. Having to both carry out tasks like "I want you to send missiles to these places on this day to show strength", "I want these units to attack this city until it is taken, and no rotations!", "I want daily attacks against this city, find a way" - and also not have anything specific about entire oblasts or the long-term planning of the operation, means that focus inevitably becomes the specifics and giving the appearance of doing what everyone thinks the dictator wants in the vague areas. Then there's whole "no competitors" angle with supreme commanders that achieve their goals (or fail gloriously at it) being inherently dangerous to a dictator in the aftermath of a war. In addition to this, local commanders can mess up so badly that it makes the supreme command look bad. For all we know, there have been one or more competent commanders in charge, but due to bad luck, bad underlings and/or political interference, they ended up near an open career window and a subsequent free fall. Dictators generally ruin military operations unless they're rare geniuses, incredibly lucky and/or actually decent commanders themselves. Putin is neither, so I don't think it is surprising he can't find good leadership. Even decently functioning democratic meritocracies have trouble finding good military leaders. The mechanics of political power are just inherently at odds with appointing, empowering and trusting the most competent commanders. History is full of wars where there's a succession of failson generals on both sides until one sides lucks out and gets a good one for long enough that it matters. Finally, Shoigu seems to be really bad at his job. That's good for Ukraine and the world, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shoigu ends up being central to some racist 'dolchstoss' mythology in the aftermath of a Russian fiasco. He's not an ethnic Russian, he's inept and he's eminently placed to take much of the blame. Tuvans being Lamaist buddhist doesn't help in this regard, as China probably wouldn't mind a scapegoat connected to that particular cultural heritage. But now I'm already heading down a tangent. TL;DR - there are so many factors working against the appointment and empowerment of a competent supreme commander, that it would be much more surprising to see one emerge than the current situation.
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 12:54 |
|
|
Russian media is reporting that the DNR and LNR are "calling for immediate referenda" on annexation
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:03
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1571768614373523457?s=20&t=0O_gY8RfagNlJHg01TWRKA Seen this making the rounds: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1571844807059816448?s=20&t=0O_gY8RfagNlJHg01TWRKA
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:05
|
|
|
I thought Russia did eventually appoint something like a supreme commander and it did not last long. Am I completely wrong here? Or is that supposed to be above even the scope of Ukraine?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:10
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Not many details but a bit more trustworthy than randos on twitter ISW reporting this as well: quote:Ukrainian forces are continuing to establish positions on the east bank of the Oskil River. A Russian source reported that fighting is ongoing in eastern Kupyansk, indicating that Ukrainian forces are consolidating prior gains.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault on Kupyansk.[15] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai posted footage of Ukrainian personnel driving a tank over a pontoon bridge at an unspecified location and claimed that Ukrainian forces control an unspecified location on the east bank of the river.[16] Footage posted on September 17 shows Ukrainian forces operating on the Oskil River in a boat and receiving Russian artillery fire before advancing to the east bank.[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18 Of course, not exactly an unbiased source, but probably indicative of some progress along that front. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Sep 19, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:10
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:From the responses, it sounds like you always need to take this guy's tweets with a big grain of salt. It would be nice if Ukraine keeps advancing, though. Been following the Kherson situation very closely on a daily basis since the the big counter offensive petered out near Izyum. Fwiw, the Ukrainians are making slow but measurable progress. Some of the specifc claims in that tweet remain unverified but the inverse of Ukrainian success isn't showing up in pro Russian mil bloggers and tweeters. This suggests that the Ukrainians continue to hold and slowly expand on their control on the Russian side of the Inhulets. The claims made by the tweet are suspect in that until the Ukrainians do evict the Russians from key crossing points like Davydiv Brid, no major movements are possible and most of the "news" coming out of those areas just involve heavy shelling by both sides. It's probably why "the bulge" hasn't really deepend for weeks. The interruptions from the damaging the dam upriver and Russian attacks on those sites make it difficult and dangerous for them to move the numbers needed to really turn the screws on the Russians. By the same token though, the Russians have also been unable to really take advantage of the limited flooding that has occurred to push the Ukrainians back to their side of the river which would probably be required to stabilize their situation in the long term. Feels inevitable at this point that the Russians will crack some time in the future.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:14
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Russian media is reporting that the DNR and LNR are "calling for immediate referenda" on annexation Would this be so that if Ukraine pushes in past the 2014 boundaries of the DNR and LNR, Russia can claim Ukraine has "invaded Russia", maybe as part of a justification for more mobilization and rallying domestic support?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:14
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:Seen this making the rounds: The Guardian is reporting this as well: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/russia-no-longer-has-full-control-of-luhansk-as-ukraine-recaptures-village If the Russians no longer have full control over Luhansk Oblast, that could be symbolically significant indeed.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:19
|
|
|
Dolash posted:Would this be so that if Ukraine pushes in past the 2014 boundaries of the DNR and LNR, Russia can claim Ukraine has "invaded Russia", maybe as part of a justification for more mobilization and rallying domestic support? Pretty much. They were also wanting to do that to the other occupied areas but they took too much time and now Ukrainian counteroffensives made them moot.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:24
|
|
|
Bug Squash posted:Zhukov himself was stripped of most responsibility and kept in the backwaters due to Stalin fearing his popularity. Putin is just preempting this by preventing the very possibility of a successful general. Successful generals are more of a "nice to have" than "needed" for successful military activities. Sun Tzu - Edited by Putin
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:26
|
|
|
Dolash posted:Would this be so that if Ukraine pushes in past the 2014 boundaries of the DNR and LNR, Russia can claim Ukraine has "invaded Russia", maybe as part of a justification for more mobilization and rallying domestic support? If there are renewed calls for annexation occurring now, it is likely they are hoping that the fig leaf of Russian ownership will deter the retaking of the area. Honestly, that time is well past if it was ever even a consideration.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:27
|
|
|
Dolash posted:Would this be so that if Ukraine pushes in past the 2014 boundaries of the DNR and LNR, Russia can claim Ukraine has "invaded Russia", maybe as part of a justification for more mobilization and rallying domestic support? It's sorta this, but they're going to claim they are protecting ethnic Russians anyway. They already do. Russia has always tried the "one weird trick" of international diplomacy. They don't really give a poo poo about international norms but think the rest of the world does. They think that creating the framework of legal defensibility, no matter how flimsy or transparent, will create internal doubt in western governments.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:29
|
|
|
PederP posted:And also I assume any nuclear/natoboots/hussars speculation related even to current events, because that gets into bad territory without even needing multiple chains. Correct. Nuclear stuff has its own rule due to me still having flashbacks from a real rough nuke chat night during 2014 Crimea invasion (~5 pages per hour for the entire night, just about nuclear Armageddon), and so does WW3 stuff - here I’m guilty of just being lazy enough to lump it all into Clancychat during my interventions. FishBulbia posted:Russian media is reporting that the DNR and LNR are "calling for immediate referenda" on annexation I haven’t done any thorough teledumpster diving today, but the conversation seems to be turning in the direction of “if they are Russia, Ukrainians can’t attack”, most notably pushed by Simonyan today. I’m reading this as a tacit admission of unease over theoretical Kharkiv battlegroup push the easternmost point of Ukraine, hugging the Russian border, and just Maginot lining “LPR”. Rocko Bonaparte posted:I thought Russia did eventually appoint something like a supreme commander and it did not last long. Am I completely wrong here? Or is that supposed to be above even the scope of Ukraine? That never moved past the rumour stage, if I believe. People were speculating which general is being now held responsible for at-the-time slow progress in Donbas. Dolash posted:Would this be so that if Ukraine pushes in past the 2014 boundaries of the DNR and LNR, Russia can claim Ukraine has "invaded Russia", maybe as part of a justification for more mobilization and rallying domestic support? Not yet, Russia formally considers these territories to be sovereign nations.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:31
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:It's sorta this, but they're going to claim they are protecting ethnic Russians anyway. They already do.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:35
|
|
|
There's also the possibility that the demand for immediate annexation is coming from the "leaders" of LNR and DNR looking at the speed at which Kharkiv got swept through and are realizing that "later" is a lot riskier than they thought.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:36
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:It worked for Crimea in that it gave everyone the cover of a ~totally valid and legal referendum~ as a reason not to do anything about russia blatantly annexing a part of its neighbor so they're cargo culting the referendum as the one weird trick now. In reference to the Crimea, the issue there was more "what are you planning to do about it" more than a legal fait accompli. Ukraine was not able to stop Russia then, and Ukraine's allies and partners were very much not willing to do anything. The limited sanctions that did get put in place are more than I would normally have expected.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:40
|
|
|
Rocko Bonaparte posted:I thought Russia did eventually appoint something like a supreme commander and it did not last long. Am I completely wrong here? Or is that supposed to be above even the scope of Ukraine? Didn't he get shrapnel in the rear end on his first day at the front?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:44
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:There's also the possibility that the demand for immediate annexation is coming from the "leaders" of LNR and DNR looking at the speed at which Kharkiv got swept through and are realizing that "later" is a lot riskier than they thought. That does seem plausible. Up until recently, they were probably confident that the rest of Donetsk Oblast would be taken by Russia sooner or later. Now, that's looking less likely than ever, and Ukraine has even started retaking parts of Luhansk Oblast. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:46
|
|
|
Bug Squash posted:Putin is just preempting this by preventing the very possibility of a successful general. This seems… problematic when embarking on a major military effort against a tough and determined opponent.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 19:52
|
|
|
Zwabu posted:This seems… problematic when embarking on a major military effort against a tough and determined opponent. Not when everyone is telling you they are going to immediately roll over and surrender to you within a matter of days.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:07
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:There was an operable camp at Auschwitz accepting deported Polish Jews in loving May of 1940. The above statement is incorrect. In May 1940, 300 local Jews living in the Oświecim area were ordered to clean and tidy the barracks and grounds into early June 1940. The stammlager, Auschwitz I, was indeed built starting in 1940, however Auschwitz II, Birkenau, was not begun until mid-1941. The former was primarily a labor camp while Birkenau was an extermination camp. (There was also Auschwitz III/Monowitz.)  In the article pictured above, the authors note "the first prisoners in Auschwitz concentration camp were German political prisoners from Sachsenhausen on May 20" in 1940, who got numbers 1-30 and were housed in Block 1. On the next page, it notes "the first transport of 728 Polish political prisoners arrived from Tarnów prison on June 14, 1940." Originally the main camp was intended to be a transit camp for 10000 Polish prisoners to be sent onwards to camps "in the depths of the Reich", however this purpose changed - Auschwitz was to be expanded as a concentration camp, particularly after Himmler's visit in March 1941, where he ordered it to be expanded to a capacity of 30,000, and a new camp to be built to house 100,000 PoWs. The new camp construction, Birkenau, did not *start* until fall 1941. Some sources say the first transports of Jews to the camp began in December 1941, with the first confirmed transport arriving on 15 February 1942 from Bytom and these arrivals were all killed in gas chambers. Source: "Auschwitz 1940-1945", vol. 1, published by the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum, 2000. Part of my reference shelf:   So before you suggest I am in any way, shape or form some kind of Holocaust denier, please consider it is possible you are perhaps dealing with people who have been studying it for quite a few years and are more familiar with the subject than you are and have been fighting online anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial. I used to have a lot more reference works but on moving to Denmark in 2017 I donated most of it to the Toronto Holocaust Center. quote:I don’t know if the poster I quoted was trying to back up in some way Michael Tracey’s insane claim that the United States caused the genocidal behavior of Nazi Germany Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Sep 19, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:07
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1571931717866520577
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:12
|
|
|
The FSB letters were all real.  (This is the actual distributor of them, who cites anonymous dissenters from within.)
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:14
|
|
|
I'm not sure if this has been posted already https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1569716895905107969?t=8FeoD2FgpQ1tye5XcUo3Jw&s=19 Russia probably still has substantial available $/€ reserves, but they can't keep this up indefinitely.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:24
|
|
|
I'm prepared to do my part by not turning on my central heating until it gets really cold outside 
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:39
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:I'm prepared to do my part by not turning on my central heating until it gets really cold outside I live in apartment that’s +25 on the day before heating season starts.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 20:49
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I live in apartment that’s +25 on the day before heating season starts. Do you live like directly above a restaurant kitchen, or like, next door to a blast furnace? They turned on office heat here today, some guys came and checked the radiators. I can control my own office’s temperature but a lot of other rooms are set automatically - I think it’s supposed to be on 20 this year, but the guys setting it up didn’t know anything about the central controls. I set my house temperature to 16, compared to a typical 19 for most rooms and 21 for bedroom, so let’s see how tolerable that is. I also got an email today telling me that the car charging price for my network is going to "increase significantly". There have been price increases before but I’ve never gotten an email about it, so I guess it’s going to be bad. Fortunately for me I charge at home most of the time, but for anyone not doing home charging, electric cars are going to cost more to refuel than all hybrids, and even better diesels, starting Oct 1 in much of Europe.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:10
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Do you live like directly above a restaurant kitchen, or like, next door to a blast furnace? Nah, just a few years old building designed by architects familiar with the local weather and central heating scheduling. On the note of your house temperatures, 21 is way too much for bedroom. Optimal, from sleep quality perspective, bedroom air temperature is 16-19 degrees. I would normally suggest setting everything to that range basically, except living room and home office (20-22), and bathroom (23-25).
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:19
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1571949385080254465 This spring is going to be absolutely wild.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:30
|
|
|
saratoga posted:https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1571949385080254465 Aeroplanes have been so much on the table that it has developed an allergy to them.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
saratoga posted:https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1571949385080254465 The war is going to transition from rusted Soviet hand-me-downs, to more-modern Russian and NATO equipment, to shiny American M1s and A10s like it's the last few turns of a game of Civ
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
The US has so many M1s in storage might as well give them a home where they can be put to active use.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:34
|
|
|
I'll wait for evidence of them on the battlefield https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1571960205881282560?s=20&t=9SJUyl8DjDCx1Z0roU2P9A
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:39
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:The US has so many M1s in storage might as well give them a home where they can be put to active use. the problem, apparently, is that M1s are designed around the "infinite money hose" and "near-infinite logistics capability" the us military enjoys hence the recent statement they've gotta show they can maintain them before the US is going to send them over
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:41
|
|
|
Saw a video (no visible gore, a long range tank engagement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPsgqzQW8Ps) and it got me on a reflective mood. I was a conscript about 15 years ago and felt that I got a pretty good training all things considered. Like it felt modern in a sense that the old stories of pinnacle of soldier tactics being digging a hole in a forest and sitting there freezing while waiting for the enemy walk into a fire zone like it's a rerun of WW2 wasn't the be-all end-all. Sure there was a lot digging holes and freezing in them but the meat of the training was in mechanized warfare, combined arms, and things like that. But loving hell, after watching that video I got a feeling that I would be all but useless on a modern battlefield. And I'm not even meaning my current beer belly getting in the way! Like looking at those Ukrainians launching drones and achieving unbelievable amount of situational awareness. Sure the terrain was flat and good for drones but still. I have a feeling that most of what I've been trained at and learnt aren't really applicable anymore. Didn't see a single drone in my time. From a lowly corporal's understanding of matters (so not very much!), it sure seems like warfare is going through a yet another revolution. Ukrainian military has done great things since starting reforms after 2014 but I'd guess that even they weren't prepared how much of a game changer just cheap from the shelf drones were. They were put on a toughest spot imaginable but some how pulled through and seem now to be succeeding. It will be interesting to see after the war (hopefully soon!) how the lessons and new innovative learnt by the Ukrainians will spread and be taught to NATO militaries.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:46
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Aeroplanes have been so much on the table that it has developed an allergy to them. I'll go on record predicting that Ukraine will have authorization to receive either US M1s or Korean K2s by the end of December 2022, and F-16s by the end of March 2023. Germany will find excuses not to provide Leopards and the UK can't produce Challengers fast enough. Tank Ammo chat: That Russian T-90M having ammo from the 1980's is important because it means Russia either has very little of or is otherwise just not using newer ammunition. Their older APFSDS ammunition used tungsten as the penetrator; the newer uses depleted uranium, like Western tanks. DU APFSDS have significantly greater armor penetration; tungsten-based APFSDS struggle to penetrate M1 tanks (and I assume other modern Western MBTs as well). In other words: if Ukraine gets M1s Russian tanks will struggle to disable/destroy them using direct fire cannon. This is more than a little bit speculative, is contingent on many, many things, etc., but I thought others itt might find it interesting.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:47
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:I'll wait for evidence of them on the battlefield To... do what with? Aren't these basically T-55s?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:I'll wait for evidence of them on the battlefield This took a bit too long for my liking (like what 4-5 months since the initial news about it), but at least the military is getting at least some upgrades.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:50
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:the problem, apparently, is that M1s are designed around the "infinite money hose" and "near-infinite logistics capability" the us military enjoys The logistics would certainly be interesting. I guess probably repair bases in Poland or related country and then cycle them back and forth, similar to how they're refurbishing T-72s. To make any sense at all they'd have to commit to giving a lot though. If its just 20 or something like that it isn't going to be worth the trouble to keep the running. 200 and it starts to look more worthwhile.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 12:54 |
|
|
saratoga posted:The logistics would certainly be interesting. I guess probably repair bases in Poland or related country and then cycle them back and forth, similar to how they're refurbishing T-72s. Just earlier this year Poland signed a contract for purchasing 250 M1s, I would figure they'd be interested in maintaining them long-term.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2022 21:54
|
|
