|
QuarkJets posted:Dude you know that's not true Actually.... http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/06/republicans-order-trump-win-presidential-debate-dumped.html quote:Private polling in both parties is showing that Donald Trump’s decline is much worse than is currently being reported. The situation is so dire that if Trump doesn’t turn it around at the second debate, the Republican Party is planning to abandon him.
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 11, 2024 04:19 |
|
|
Don't tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:41
|
|
|
GalacticAcid posted:The only person I hate as much as I hate Rick Santorum is George W Bush. Cheney, Huckabee, and Cruz are strong contenders for me. I think hate Huckabee the most, despite the fact he's irrelevant even by Santorum standards.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:42
|
|
|
Ego-bot posted:Actually.... They're not going to do that. But I'm wondering what the hell could show him doing WORSE than 'behind or even in every swing state and a few that aren't swing states and also down by like 6 nationally'.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:42
|
|
|
Night10194 posted:They're not going to do that. There's a nonzero chance (read: unlikely, not impossible) of his ceiling being 35% of the popular vote, which means a potential gaining seats in the House.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:45
|
|
|
Phone posted:It's this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:45
|
|
|
I wonder what's the difference between the public polls and private ones? It sounds like the latter are painting a genuinely different story.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:46
|
|
|
AtomikKrab posted:If he bombs this one he won't do the third, and that will end him.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:46
|
|
|
Night10194 posted:I wonder what's the difference between the public polls and private ones? It sounds like the latter are painting a genuinely different story.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:47
|
|
|
It's way too late for the GOP to abandon Trump. They might've been able to do it before Labor Day, but the Trumpies have built themselves into such a frenzy of "he's totally winning you guys!!!!" that doing it now would basically shatter the party. When Trump loses, the Trumpies are going to need to blame his loss on something that isn't them, and the GOP cutting off funding would basically put a giant flashing arrow over their heads. They're going to go through the motions and pretend that everything is fine, and when the election is over they're going to pretend like he never existed.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:48
|
|
|
I mean if they tried to cut the Trump bait it would be a sign they are extremely stupid, the kind of ineptitude that could get you nominee Donald Trump.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:52
|
|
|
I can't even picture what abandoning Trump in favor of the GOP downticket races would look like. If it's obvious Trump is going to lose it would destroy turnout and doom any close downticket race. They have no choice but to push Trump forward.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:54
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:And Tallahassee is only arguably a city? oh yeah, tallahassee
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:54
|
|
|
I become more convinced every day that Trump has still just been a Clinton plant this entire time. There's more evidence backing that than any of the other bullshit conspiracies thrown around this year.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:56
|
|
|
Yeah there was talk of the GOP dumping him in August as well, but I guess they saw the steady rise in his polling coupled with the steady drop in hers, and decided to stick with it. Even dropping him then would have been bad news - dropping him now would make the US a one-party state for the next many years. I want to say "and obviously they're aware of this" but I keep overestimating the GOPe so I won't.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:56
|
|
|
A real concern rooted in reality (versus my pipe dream where the house flips) is that Clinton has been careful to treat Trump on his own versus attaching him to the overall GOP machine. So all of the republicans coming out of the woodwork to publicly announce their endorsement of Clinton is cute and whatnot, but Nameless House Republican #173 is still getting voted in come November 8. The retrospectives from this election are either going to be "we had to thread a needle from space" or "we wasted so much time threading a needle from space when we could have just gone ham to flip as many seats as possible because the presidential race was on lockdown since the GOP primary".
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:57
|
|
|
I can't really blame the campaign for doing everything it could to make sure an idiot fascist doesn't take over the most powerful country on the planet.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 06:59
|
|
|
Night10194 posted:I can't really blame the campaign for doing everything it could to make sure an idiot fascist doesn't take over the most powerful country on the planet. Yeah this isn't about one political machine trying to wrangle an advantage over the other at this point, it's about preventing an actual adult child from getting nuclear weapons.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:05
|
|
|
Phone posted:A real concern rooted in reality (versus my pipe dream where the house flips) is that Clinton has been careful to treat Trump on his own versus attaching him to the overall GOP machine. So all of the republicans coming out of the woodwork to publicly announce their endorsement of Clinton is cute and whatnot, but Nameless House Republican #173 is still getting voted in come November 8. But the other thing is that you don't really have to pin Trump to all these down-ticket races. He's going to depress turnout for the GOP considerably and that's going to affect the down-ticket to the point where taking the House is well out of "pipe dream" territory and somewhere between "long shot" and "even odds". Like, there is no question that the Dems will win the House popular vote this year - the only question is if they win enough to overcome gerrymandering. According to PEC right now they're about 2-3 points short.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:05
|
|
|
Phone posted:A real concern rooted in reality (versus my pipe dream where the house flips) is that Clinton has been careful to treat Trump on his own versus attaching him to the overall GOP machine. So all of the republicans coming out of the woodwork to publicly announce their endorsement of Clinton is cute and whatnot, but Nameless House Republican #173 is still getting voted in come November 8. I'm think they should stick to caution. It's easy to attack Trump without pissing many voters off. If you attack all Republicans based on Trump it is a lot easier for Republicans to spin that into Democrats attacking Republican voters. If they attack just Trump I think a lot of Republican voters will just stay home, but if those voters feel they personally are being attacked they will come out for sure. They tried to do this already with the basket of deplorables comment but it didn't really stick.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:06
|
|
|
EDIT: So the senate is pretty much guaranteed for us right?Queering Wheel posted:I become more convinced every day that Trump has still just been a Clinton plant this entire time. There's more evidence backing that than any of the other bullshit conspiracies thrown around this year. I've been saying this since the primaries, but I don't think I truly believed it until recently. When all the other possibilities lead to spiraling depression over how awful things are, it's the only one I can really put faith in.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:07
|
|
|
Otteration posted:From page 195 or whatever, but WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THE drat LLAMAS Crowsbeak posted:So which song was best in all the Fallout games? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPzICHxXoQ
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:11
|
|
|
Eh, disagree on the "deplorable" one; that one is now some badge of honor because people had to go all the way to merriam-webster.com to figure out what they were being called. But yeah, I agree with you that down ticket stuff should hypothetically sort itself out. My only fear is that Clinton dunks on him from half court so hard that it somehow depresses Democratic voter turnout in spite of them actually having a GOTV apparatus.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:11
|
|
|
Phone posted:Eh, disagree on the "deplorable" one; that one is now some badge of honor because people had to go all the way to merriam-webster.com to figure out what they were being called. People love voting for a winner. You don't need to worry about this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:13
|
|
|
Phone posted:My only fear is that Clinton dunks on him from half court so hard that it somehow depresses Democratic voter turnout in spite of them actually having a GOTV apparatus.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:14
|
|
|
Phone posted:Eh, disagree on the "deplorable" one; that one is now some badge of honor because people had to go all the way to merriam-webster.com to figure out what they were being called. Real elections don't work like that one old episode of The Simpsons. When one candidate is overwhelmingly winning in the polls, their supporters are more likely to turn out, and candidates that are losing hard see their supporters' turnout depressed.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:20
|
|
|
the deplorables thing was a linguistic killshot of the highest order that will be discussed for years to come it IMMEDIATELY paid dividends because the media didn't even have time to revv up the 47% equivalency engine before millions of Trumpenproles proudly donned the mantle of deplorable and used this new enthusiasm to call all the reporters stupid zionist oven-ready globalist jews even if that didn't happen, Pence on live TV not being able to denounce David Duke because the interviewer used that word would've been enough it sits there, happily being used by half of the GOP to wedge itself off from the other half that were content to pretend the deplorables didn't exist fallout song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_4cnUhQ6rs
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:24
|
|
|
Eletriarnation posted:Anyone who hasn't should watch Ken Burns' documentary on jazz, which is available to watch for free on PBS' website. I can't really do it justice with a short description, but after watching you'll understand how unlike any genre that came before jazz is uniquely American and full of innovation that continues to have great influence on other genres in the modern day. Makes for great ambience if you have it on while you're doing something else too. This is a huge and late derail but I met Ken Burns backstage of the Nightly Show (RIP) when I got a VIP tour because my best friend Felonious Munk was on a few episodes and I went to one of the tapings he was on.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:27
|
|
|
Epic High Five posted:the deplorables thing was a linguistic killshot of the highest order that will be discussed for years to come I agree with everything in this post, until your very last point. My good sir, this cannot stand. https://youtu.be/ICcoOtqYVYY
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:29
|
|
|
Pyroxene Stigma posted:I agree with everything in this post, until your very last point. My good sir, this cannot stand. i didn't say it was the best  it's just a good one best is big iron and it was already posted i like the Marty Robbins version more than the Cash version.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:33
|
|
|
The Shortest Path posted:EDIT: So the senate is pretty much guaranteed for us right? Nothing is guaranteed and no one's won poo poo. If we've got the presidency, we need the Senate. If we've got the Senate, we need to try for the House. Volunteer.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:39
|
|
|
Don't forget that there are districts that literally don't have Democratic candidates. Like mine. 
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:41
|
|
|
Koyaanisgoatse posted:And to build on that, all it took was Trump keeping his mouth shut and Hillary getting pneumonia to take things back to post-Republican Convention levels. We can't assume that the race is "over" until November 9th Early September is not early October in a Presidential Election cycle. The two moments are literally incomparable and besides which Hillary currently has a much stronger lead by every metric right now then she did on September 11. A much more solid metric due to early voting currently going in full force, not to mention the massive voter registration drive. Both are objective measurements which have already shown a massive advantage toward Hillary. Trump has run out of time and the second debate is going to be the final nail in the coffin. We are very nearly at the point where anyone continuing to Arzy in this thread is simply being an obstinate moron. That being said that is all strictly referring to the Presidency. The Senate can currently go either way so absolutely be concerned about that. Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 07:44 on Oct 7, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:41
|
|
|
Kilroy posted:They want to make sure Trump isn't elected above all else, even if it means giving the GOP a hand. I can see the logic in that, since Trump would be a disaster and also even as a straight-ticket Dem voter I don't want to live in a one-party state. It would be nice if the GOP could get its act together even if I personally probably would still not vote for them. I live in a fully blue state, and it owns. Now if only florida could send us some of its water Also, if they dump Trump, I wouldn't be shocked if he tells his loyalists to stay home on election day The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 07:46 on Oct 7, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:44
|
|
|
A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Don't forget that there are districts that literally don't have Democratic candidates. Like mine. You ever think of running? In Arizona, I think we've got someone on the ballot for pretty much every race. Even the unwinnable ones.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:46
|
|
|
The Oldest Man posted:Yeah this isn't about one political machine trying to wrangle an advantage over the other at this point, it's about preventing an actual adult child from getting nuclear weapons. Thing is if the GOP isn't properly crushed they won't learn the lesson and we'll get another racist idiot running for POTUS in 2020 and they might even win if they are a slightly better candidate than Donny. Like you only need a poorly timed recession and a slightly less gooberish Mike Pence and suddenly an ex-gay advocate transhater who wants to bomb Iran is running the WH with the support of the entire legislative branch.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:52
|
|
|
if ur gonna run in a no-hope district, promise stuff like a thousand years of socialism and godless liberal darkness who knows maybe people will appreciate your honesty as an outsider willing to tell it like it is
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:53
|
|
|
The Shortest Path posted:I've been saying this since the primaries, but I don't think I truly believed it until recently. It just makes perfect sense the more I think about it. There's so many arguments favoring this theory. - It's no secret that Trump used to be friends with the Clintons, and even donated a lot of money to their foundation. It's strange that he would switch sides to the Republican party. It's not so crazy to think that he did it as an elaborate plan to destroy the GOP from within and help his friend Hillary earn the Presidency, something she's worked so hard for. He only started getting significantly involved in politics in 2011, when he began pushing the birther crap. This was just after the 2010 election, when the racist Tea Party movement happened and Republicans won bigly. Trump correctly read what the Republican base was becoming, and the birther stuff was an easy in. Then he just waited until where we are now. The electorate is more diverse than ever, and the GOP base is whiter and angrier than ever before. 2016 was the perfect time to make his move. - In the primaries, he really didn't focus on Hillary as much as he could have. He spent a lot of time DESTROYING the other Republican hopefuls. Right now the GOP's presidential candidate pool is a smoldering crater. None of them are going to win in 2020 or beyond that. The only people you could make an argument for are Pence, Cruz and Kasich. Ted Cruz is extremely ugly and unlikeable, Pence has way too much baggage to win an election, and Kasich will never make it through a primary now that the Republican base is truly a basket of deplorables. Why would Trump want to hurt his party so much? Because he's a Clinton plant, that's why. - He's relying on the RNC to do his campaign stuff so that he can weaken it. By being forced to take care of all his campaign stuff, it just drags the RNC down and means that they can't support downticket races as well as they could have otherwise. - That one good month he had when he kept his mouth shut and slowly caught up to Clinton? Just more strategy. He couldn't make it TOO obvious that he was deliberately trying to lose, and he knew that keeping quiet and acting normal would get enough moderate Republicans to jump on and boost his numbers. - As much as we like to think Trump is an idiot, you have to have an above average level of intelligence to play the game as well as he has in his career. He's a piece of poo poo, no doubt, but he's very good at moving money around, passing the bill onto other people, playing the bankruptcy game and so on. It's clearly something that he enjoys doing. Why not play another game and try to take out an entire political party? I wouldn't be surprised if this whole thing started with Bill thinking that Trump could never pull off such a plan, and Trump privately challenged him to a bet or something. But that's just my speculation.
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 07:53
|
|
|
Counterpoint: He might just have Alzheimers, like his dad
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 08:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 11, 2024 04:19 |
|
|
Trump's townhall yesterday was something else Excerpt of the hardball questions he got: quote:How do I get a job?
|
|
#
?
Oct 7, 2016 08:04
|
|
