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Bernie no in cali is down to 78, I assume based on the vapors of the Oregon win.
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May 18, 2016 13:35
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Gibberish posted:Honestly, if you didn't go for Bernie YES on Oregon, you probably should take a step back and stop using PredictIt, because you either have no idea what the political landscape in America is like or you suck at predicting. How some people thought Hillary winning by 15 based on one poll being legit is beyond me. There's really no better state for Bernie than Oregon, besides Vermont.
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May 18, 2016 13:36
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Bernie no in cali is down to 78, I assume based on the vapors of the Oregon win. It's been in the low 70s all week, was in the 60s last week.
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May 18, 2016 13:40
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e_angst posted:drat. Looks like the MOV might actually tip. Deschutes County flipped from a Clinton win to a Sanders win, and some other county-level results are gonna put it over the line. I'm selling at a giant loss. Go long, $650... I felt silly cashing this out at like 47c (NO shares) but I know that if I had held, I wouldn't have sold them at yesterday's high of 90, so I'm glad I got out of this market. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 13:53 on May 18, 2016 |
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May 18, 2016 13:45
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EngineerSean posted:It's been in the low 70s all week, was in the 60s last week. Wow. Thats delusional, isn't it?
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May 18, 2016 13:57
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Wow. Thats delusional, isn't it? I thought so  I also think these are markets that will likely trade much higher in the future 
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May 18, 2016 14:09
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Unless a miracle happens I'm done with PI. Been a fun ride.
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May 18, 2016 15:48
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cheese eats mouse posted:Unless a miracle happens I'm done with PI. Been a fun ride. But how will you make back your money unless you triple down? Almost all my money is in long term markets now because I have a tendency to try and play the market's expected plays and burning cash in the short term.
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May 18, 2016 15:57
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I'd prefer to have my Tuesday nights back.
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May 18, 2016 16:21
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OR MOV NO killed the $50 I put into PredictIt in Feb http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/ Over 10pts now for MOV RIP $50 lol Throwing last $10 from selling MOV NO to CA YES on Bern lol. ThndrShk2k has issued a correction as of 16:28 on May 18, 2016 |
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May 18, 2016 16:22
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Ugh, gently caress this. This MoV market is too slow and I already lost some money on it last night. I'm out.
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May 18, 2016 16:23
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I sold out almost everything at 20c last night, taking a decent loss on the position. If shares get down to 4/5c, I'll buy some lottery tickets. I def didn't expect Hillary to keep Multnomah tight, but when the big dump came in at 11:50 PT or whenever, and bernie had taken ~62% of the added votes (just above the required +18-20% margin range for the more liberal counties to keep it sub 10%), I knew it looked bad. Obviously prices had already knee jerk collapsed by then though Reading the last few posts, how do other people here think about allocation? I rarely put more than ~15% of my pot into any given market until results are out and something is cruising to a win, and I push that cap up to maybe ~30% to collect bits. But that's just intuition based, and sometimes I blow through it since I have no hard rules. Do other ppl have a strategy for this?
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May 18, 2016 16:36
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Unless it's a really good bet, that's a nice strat to avoid getting wiped. I put in way more than I'd normally care to invest in OR MOV NO and it wiped my gains. Back to square 1, but at least I'm not in the red.
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May 18, 2016 16:52
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Yeah I'm (usually) careful to limit my exposure to any one market unless it's a done-deal and I'm vacuuming up pennies. But even that strategy isn't safe
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May 18, 2016 17:01
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Well I killed all my KY money and then some on the MOV. Complete hubris.
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May 18, 2016 17:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Well I killed all my KY money and then some on the MOV. Complete hubris. Same!
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May 18, 2016 17:25
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Necc0 posted:Yeah I'm (usually) careful to limit my exposure to any one market unless it's a done-deal and I'm vacuuming up pennies. But even that strategy isn't safe i highly discourage this. the pennies aren't worth the nonzero risk--ever.
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May 18, 2016 17:45
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Abel Wingnut posted:i highly discourage this. the pennies aren't worth the nonzero risk--ever. It really depends. If it's literally a done deal and just waiting for someone on the other end to mash the 'CLOSE MARKET' button then it's worth it. If it's a  done deal like Trump RNOM then no stay far far away.
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May 18, 2016 17:54
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thethreeman posted:I sold out almost everything at 20c last night, taking a decent loss on the position. If shares get down to 4/5c, I'll buy some lottery tickets. I def didn't expect Hillary to keep Multnomah tight, but when the big dump came in at 11:50 PT or whenever, and bernie had taken ~62% of the added votes (just above the required +18-20% margin range for the more liberal counties to keep it sub 10%), I knew it looked bad. Obviously prices had already knee jerk collapsed by then though You could just follow something like the kelly formula to size your bets but it requires you to be able to accurately handicap your chances of winning and that is really loving difficult to do in political prediction markets. Like does a +8 over 5 polls in the past two weeks translate to a 92% chance of winning? How do you price demographics?
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May 18, 2016 18:09
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Vox Nihili posted:Well I killed all my KY money and then some on the MOV. Complete hubris. Yea, last night was a very hard lesson in humility. Oregon MOV was my first market to ever max out. Hell, shortly after the big up-swing I managed to cash out all some shares so that I would at least break even for the night. Then I said, no, I was gonna go big. I got out this morning, but far far too late. On final tally, I managed to turn $760 (the amount I'd deposited since last clearing my account, all played in Oregon) into a mere $145.01 (the size of the check they're mailing me now that I'm clearing my account out again).
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May 18, 2016 18:20
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As of last night when I checked, there was $3.4m traded in the Kentucky market on PredictIt $2.3m traded in Oregon, $1.2m traded in Oregon MoV, $500k in Kentucky MoV
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May 18, 2016 19:27
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Arkane posted:As of last night when I checked, there was $3.4m traded in the Kentucky market on PredictIt Yeah they're making p. good money
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May 18, 2016 19:35
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Yessssssss DO IT BERNIE: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/18/bernie-sanders-kentucky-recount-oregon-trump-megyn-kelly If I win $650 off this (with my tiny investment) I'm going to laugh my rear end off.
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May 18, 2016 19:41
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I'm all in on BERNIE.NO in California <-----------------------
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May 18, 2016 20:44
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I put in a buy order for Bernie NO in Cali for 72 figuring I'd get it filled eventually. It already got filled. Bernie mania lives.
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May 18, 2016 23:27
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I put in my sell order of Hillary in KY at .99 literally the minute the state was called for her last night. I'm still not even close to first in line and shares are currently available at .95. I hate these people.
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May 19, 2016 01:02
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Same but .74 Let's do this
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May 19, 2016 01:23
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Aliquid posted:I put in my sell order of Hillary in KY at .99 literally the minute the state was called for her last night. I'm still not even close to first in line and shares are currently available at .95. I hate these people. WELCOME TO THE PAIN ZONE, FRIEND 
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May 19, 2016 01:23
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Necc0 posted:WELCOME TO THE PAIN ZONE, FRIEND i'm a veteran of Dem Missouri but i'm also dumb
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May 19, 2016 06:33
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i don't wanna know if it's not but i think it's super cool that is a secret of mana reference
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May 19, 2016 06:34
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OAquinas posted:You can make a quick 10% by buying B5 NO in the Trump/Clinton poll. She's currently at +5.7, so it would take apocalyptic overnight poll numbers to sink that in 47 hours. lol edit: I bought some B5 NO's at 5c as a lottery ticket though. edit2: don't bet on polls. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 14:34 on May 19, 2016 |
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May 19, 2016 14:27
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Welp! That's what I get for betting against Lord President Trump. Edit: and those polls were pretty damned apocalyptic. I love the Trump +5 one...with 21% undecided. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 17:26 on May 19, 2016 |
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May 19, 2016 14:38
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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion: You Are Racist > just ctrl-F "marx" and get ready to have your mind blown > PredictIt : Don't Bet On Polls
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May 19, 2016 14:48
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chuck grassley re-election is below 80 for some reason 
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May 19, 2016 19:28
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Joe Biden apparently has a higher chance to win the presidency (7%) than he does to win the Democratic nomination (6%). I'm not saying you should bet on these, I just thought it was funny.
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May 19, 2016 19:55
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so what you're saying is we need a BIDEN.3RDPARTY.YES to bid on, then?
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May 19, 2016 20:10
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I'm bettin' on some polls!!!
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May 20, 2016 02:56
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No! Don't!!!
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May 20, 2016 03:03
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm bettin' on some polls!!! no don't stop.
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May 20, 2016 03:13
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 16:20 |
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm bettin' on some polls!!! 
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May 20, 2016 03:17
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