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Sono posted:What the hell have they pissed away $400 million on? Logikv9 posted:Walker, various drugs to forget about Walker's loss They said "none of it was on presidential politics", so it's probably just various local/state races.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:53
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Samurai Sanders posted:Do Iowans really understand the vast power over elections they have been given, and for no good reason that I know of? They barely know how to spell the name of their state and they can only do that because it's a four letter word and one of the syllables tells you what the first letter is
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Feb 1, 2016 23:54
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Donald Trump posted:You look at all of the things that are bad-- I'll give you an example. And this isn't part of what I was going to say, but I ride down the highways and somebody makes those guard rails. You know the guard rails. The ones that sort of go like this [demonstrates with hand] that are always bent, rusted and horrible. Did you ever see more than like 20 feet which isn't corroded, or bent or the heat, if it gets too hot, it just crushes. Now they've been selling this thing for 25 years. Why doesn't someone stop them and get something that works. Because they don't know; they don't know what's happening. Somebody made a lot of money on that. They don't know what is happening. If he never said that you're the best impersonator of all time. Please keep posting nonTrump statements like this instead of just repeating him. Those other posts are peanuts, but this one, terrific.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:54
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Samurai Sanders posted:Do Iowans really understand No.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:57
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Donald Trump is currently sitting at 68% at Predictwise. It's coming.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:57
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Samurai Sanders posted:Do Iowans really understand the vast power over elections they have been given, and for no good reason that I know of? Haven't they deliberately set it up to always be first just so people will pretend Iowa matters once every four years?
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Feb 1, 2016 23:57
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Samurai Sanders posted:Do Iowans really understand the vast power over elections they have been given, and for no good reason that I know of? They either don't understand it at all or they understand it way too much and get all snooty like they've earned the right. edit: also, Trump winning Iowa is at -310 on 5dimes right now, Hillary is only at -305... Hmm. Nolan Arenado fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Feb 2, 2016 |
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Feb 1, 2016 23:58
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Carrasco posted:They said "none of it was on presidential politics", so it's probably just various local/state races. This is legitimately more frightening than any other alternative.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:59
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OctoberBlues posted:They either don't understand it at all or they understand it way too much and get all snooty like they've earned the right. Last week NPR did a story on the history of why Iowa and New Hampshire are the primary states. Their answer: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Feb 2, 2016 00:00
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Montasque posted:Donald Trump is currently sitting at 68% at Predictwise. So am I 
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Feb 2, 2016 00:02
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greatn posted:The day... When Edgar comes back I got this joke btw
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Feb 2, 2016 00:03
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Just a reminder: we have a bipartisan TV/IV caucus thread for tonight!
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Feb 2, 2016 00:03
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How can Trump have a son that looks like that and a daughter like Ivanka
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Feb 2, 2016 00:06
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Blue Blood in Iowa's hood Lives down south and it's understood. Jeb!'s there just to be low energy. 'Nother one of the Bush family. Trump's in charge of Our days and our nights. Trump's in charge of Our wrongs and our rights. So I say I want Trump's in charge of me.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:07
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Samurai Sanders posted:Do Iowans really understand the vast power over elections they have been given, and for no good reason that I know of? The thing is the power of being first is overstated. On the Republican side there doesn't seem to be much evidence it influences the eventual outcome because it favors religious conservatives. If a candidate is not significantly Evangelical but still wins it's a good signaling mechanism, but overall the influence on later events doesn't appear isn't significant. Likewise on the Democratic side you have the obvious example of Obama's victory in Iowa followed by a defeat in New Hampshire. It's important to win at least one early state, but which one doesn't appear particularly important, is what I draw from the data.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:09
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"Martin O’Malley is not going to win the Democratic caucuses. Donald Trump will probably not finish behind Carly Fiorina." - Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com
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Feb 2, 2016 00:10
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Montasque posted:Donald Trump is currently sitting at 68% at Predictwise. aaahhhhhhhhAAAAHHHHH Donald Trump Donald Trump Six foot 20 killing Jeb! for fun
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Feb 2, 2016 00:11
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Logikv9 posted:This is legitimately more frightening than any other alternative. It's not a new strategy for them. It's also why the continued talk of the death of the GOP is premature
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Feb 2, 2016 00:14
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Doctor Spaceman posted:It's not a new strategy for them. It's also why the continued talk of the death of the GOP is premature It isn't, but I hadn't actually seen the full dollar amount that they throw at those local elections. It's also the reason why the House is going to be solid GOP for a long time. Democrats suck on the local level. Just awful.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:16
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Brannock posted:Lips that look like two worms loving, blonde, astonishingly rich, incest rumors swirling around his family... "Listen, I know Robb Stark. I met him in Winterfell, and I beat him in a duel with real swords. Very low-energy, his only supporters are losers like the Crannogmen."
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Feb 2, 2016 00:16
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The X-man cometh posted:"Listen, I know Robb Stark. I met him in Winterfell, and I beat him in a duel with real swords. Very low-energy, his only supporters are losers like the Crannogmen." so when the red wedding?
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Feb 2, 2016 00:22
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Thump! posted:aaahhhhhhhhAAAAHHHHH He'll save the children but not the Muslim children
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Feb 2, 2016 00:23
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Montasque posted:Donald Trump is currently sitting at 68% at Predictwise. Actually he's at 74%. The percentages below the chart are more recent.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:24
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Montasque posted:So if Trump does win tonight it looks like the Koch machine is finally going to unleash hell on him: Oh good it'll be nice to have trump drag their names through the mud too
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Feb 2, 2016 00:25
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Jewel Repetition posted:Actually he's at 74%. The percentages below the chart are more recent. My god...
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Feb 2, 2016 00:26
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That's still not a completely secure position though. If you want to understand why, flip two coins. If both are tails, Trump loses.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:28
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Hearing Palin saying it wasn't even a close decision on whether to endorse Trump or Cruz is just beautiful.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:28
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Donald Trump posted:You look at all of the things that are bad-- I'll give you an example. And this isn't part of what I was going to say, but I ride down the highways and somebody makes those guard rails. You know the guard rails. The ones that sort of go like this [demonstrates with hand] that are always bent, rusted and horrible. Did you ever see more than like 20 feet which isn't corroded, or bent or the heat, if it gets too hot, it just crushes. Now they've been selling this thing for 25 years. Why doesn't someone stop them and get something that works. Because they don't know; they don't know what's happening. Somebody made a lot of money on that. They don't know what is happening. im actually stumped by this one. look at me, ma, stumped by the trump.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:29
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nachos posted:Oh good it'll be nice to have trump drag their names through the mud too
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Feb 2, 2016 00:30
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Hearing Palin saying it wasn't even a close decision on whether to endorse Trump or Cruz is just beautiful. I'm just hear to watch Ted Cruz squirm really...
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Feb 2, 2016 00:31
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Mark Levin has been complaining about how Iowa and the other initial states are small and don't matter and the all the nation needs to vote to decide on the true nominee. I wonder what this implies about Ted Cruz's chances tonight as perceived by Master Shake?
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Feb 2, 2016 00:31
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Subvisual Haze posted:Mark Levin has been complaining about how Iowa and the other initial states are small and don't matter and the all the nation needs to vote to decide on the true nominee. Mastershake meltdown = bad, bad, bad for Cruz.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:33
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Subvisual Haze posted:Mark Levin has been complaining about how Iowa and the other initial states are small and don't matter and the all the nation needs to vote to decide on the true nominee. i mean i agree that the opinions of americans who actually live in urban centers are far more important than... lets call it "empty garbage country"
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Feb 2, 2016 00:33
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nachos posted:Oh good it'll be nice to have trump drag their names through the mud too Koch brothers want to add their names to the very large Stumped 420 list
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Feb 2, 2016 00:34
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Koch brothers won't attack using their names, it'll be under a couple different names like Americans for <concern_troll> Rights and each entity will hammer away at one point Who knows if it will work? Kochs power is in 100k grants to schools and townships and the like with a resource they want to exploit. Give the people on top a hefty pile of cash and odds are they'll let you loot the place. They've got some sinister plans at the school I work at but there's a big push back against the administration accepting any of their money
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Feb 2, 2016 00:34
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Jewel Repetition posted:That's still not a completely secure position though. If you want to understand why, flip two coins. If both are tails, Trump loses. Like in 2012, 538 gave Romney a 10% chance to win the general, which Nate Silver later said "Was the probability that all the statistical evidence was wrong," and that comparing Romney's chances to a roll of a ten-sided die was a gross oversimplification.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:35
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If Ted fuckin Cruz, the most evangelical fuckhead of all evangelical fuckheads in recent memory, who launched his campaign from fuckhead U, Liberty fuckin University cannot manage to win the early evangelical contest of Iofuckinwa, a state that Rick fuckin Santorum won in recent memory, then he should probably retire from politics immediately because he is very very bad at it.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:36
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Isn't there something about how this isn't how probability actually works when it comes to predictions based on polling? um nate silver is an idiot dipshit loser, dont you know where you are?
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Feb 2, 2016 00:36
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Feb 2, 2016 00:37
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uncurable mlady posted:If Ted fuckin Cruz, the most evangelical fuckhead of all evangelical fuckheads in recent memory, who launched his campaign from fuckhead U, Liberty fuckin University cannot manage to win the early evangelical contest of Iofuckinwa, a state that Rick fuckin Santorum won in recent memory, then he should probably retire from politics immediately because he is very very bad at it. Conversely, if he gets beaten out by a guy who said "Two Corinthians" and got mixed up on the difference between a communion plate and an offering plate, well, that sure says something.
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Feb 2, 2016 00:39
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