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Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

other tampa goons back me up on this because i don't remember the details very much but we had like, a sting operation against uber drivers in our city and so the state government disbanded the entire city-level regulatory agency that regulates that poo poo and passed a law saying nobody can restrict uber stuff on a city level, under the guise of passing "state-level regulations" for how uber must certify drivers for "consistency across the state," which, surprise!, were basically what uber was already doing

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Just-In-Timeberlake
Aug 18, 2003
http://www.clickhole.com/article/je...SocialMarketing

quote:


Jeff Bezos Just Tossed A Nail-Studded Baseball Bat On The Floor Between The Mayors Of Pittsburgh And Kansas City And Asked Who Really Wants The Second Amazon HQ

NEWS
Posted Oct. 24, 2017
LIKE
The mayors of Pittsburgh and Atlanta about to fight.
As Amazon executives review bids placed by cities who want to house the company’s second headquarters, it’s anyone’s guess who will win out. But we may now have a clue who the early frontrunners are: Tech insiders are reporting that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos just tossed a nail-studded baseball bat on the floor during a meeting with the mayors of Pittsburgh and Kansas City and asked them to prove how much they want the second Amazon headquarters.

Industry experts say the civic leaders initially laughed off Bezos’ suggestion, but are now taking it seriously after the executive poured himself a glass of fine bourbon, took one long sip, and simply said, “Thousands of highly skilled jobs that will need filling.”

According to reports, Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto was in the process of pleading with Bezos, insisting that surely there must be another way to decide this without appealing to man’s baser instincts, when Kansas City Mayor Sly James cut in to insist that neither man would ever consider harming the other, no matter how great the opportunity. James trailed off mid-sentence when Bezos rang a bell and the mayor of Tampa Bay entered the room on all fours like a dog, apparently blinded from a recent eye trauma, to shakily hand Bezos a cigar that the e-commerce mogul immediately lit as he kicked his feet up onto his desk.

“Maybe I’ll just go with Tampa then,” Bezos said through puffs of his Arturo Fuente, which caused James and Peduto to steal quick glances at the bat between them.

The infrastructure investments Amazon has promised to make in its city of choice alone explain why both mayors are now hesitantly inching closer to the bat, sweat forming at their temples. Insiders say that Mayor James has finally taken off his sports coat and glasses, though he reassured Mayor Peduto that it was simply because the room was warm and in no way because the jacket would limit his range of motion to deliver blows of a nail-studded baseball bat.

Sources have confirmed that Bezos had grown tired of the mayors’ dithering, telling them that this was all “rather unfortunate” and making his way toward the door. But, just as he was about to exit the room, the mayors both lunged toward the bat with everything they had, so it looks like both cities are still totally in contention for HQ2.

Good on you, Pittsburghers and Kansas Citians, you’ve definitely picked leaders that are in it to win it. We wish both cities luck in proving they’re worthy of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


infernal machines posted:

they have magic.

i've seen articles about theoretical peer-to-peer info sharing from vehicles in the area, completely ignoring how there's nothing even approaching a standard for autonomous sensors, data formats, etc.

I read a journal article that was basically the opposite: entirely focused on just how goddamn hard the processing and communications arrangement would be because it is basically race conditions all the way down, clock sync is nearly impossible, and packets aren't the only thing that can collide. I seem to recall it also concluded that complexity goes up faster than exponentially with vehicle and lane count and that attempting to scale by adding computation units was likely going to be counterproductive due to the additional race condition checks that would be required.

I wish I had saved it. I think it was in one of the IEEE journals.

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

ate all the Oreos posted:

p much. lots of people, even smart people who should know better, think machine learning is some exponential process that one day will just hit the part of the curve that flies off to infinity and suddenly we'll have god-AI.

from what i've heard from actual researchers though, there's tons and tons of saddle points and local minima and all sorts of other random bullshit in that graph that computers constantly get stuck in, and we're not even sure what lies beyond that bullshit (if anything)

https://twitter.com/danevandyck/status/751447473407684609

(he cannot)

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

Cybernetic Vermin posted:

this'd be a huge derail to get into discussing very deeply, but this is a wide-ranging assumption that it is somewhat invisible to people; deep learning techniques have had a of success when getting data thrown at them, but there is no actual argument or proof why they must necessarily keep going towards perfection in every scenario we imagine, such as self-driving cars

that is, there may be a combinatorial explosion inherent in the self-driving task when mapped onto the deep learning structure (i.e. neural networks of some simple topologies), and they may never improve to the level people keep expecting. sure we are seeing progress now, but it may be approaching perfect self-driving only in the way you can approach going to the moon by climbing higher in a tree

it's not, "they perfectly self-drive", it's, "they self-drive 10x better than peeps"
not a low bar, not an impossibly high bar. w/o rain, I think googcar is getting close (and only googcar)

we knew that as soon as you poke a single goddamn thing combinatorial explosions fall out in neural net land, and we've known that since the 60's. but backprop already is a O(n^(2r)) to O(rn^2) speed improvement anyhow per minibatch so you know

EIDE Van Hagar
Dec 8, 2000

Beep Boop

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

don't forget the best part: magical intersection management



goddamn think about how terrifying that would be to experience

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

qirex posted:

66% of downtown sf traffic citations are issued to tnc drivers [estimated to be 20% of traffic], the bulk of them are for stopping where they shouldn't and driving in the bus/taxi lane

if you know anything about the sfpd they pretty much don't enforce traffic laws like ever so the reality is far, far worse

holy moly

infernal machines
Oct 11, 2012

we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

Shifty Pony posted:

I read a journal article that was basically the opposite: entirely focused on just how goddamn hard the processing and communications arrangement would be because it is basically race conditions all the way down, clock sync is nearly impossible, and packets aren't the only thing that can collide. I seem to recall it also concluded that complexity goes up faster than exponentially with vehicle and lane count and that attempting to scale by adding computation units was likely going to be counterproductive due to the additional race condition checks that would be required.

I wish I had saved it. I think it was in one of the IEEE journals.

yeah, it pretty obviously doesn't work for low-latency realtime poo poo like organizing traffic flow, but i've seen this poo poo come up every year or so like clockwork since the darpa grand challenge was a thing

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

C.H.O.M.E posted:

goddamn think about how terrifying that would be to experience

the grannykiller intersection design

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

ate all the Oreos posted:

p much. lots of people, even smart people who should know better, think machine learning is some exponential process that one day will just hit the part of the curve that flies off to infinity and suddenly we'll have god-AI.

from what i've heard from actual researchers though, there's tons and tons of saddle points and local minima and all sorts of other random bullshit in that graph that computers constantly get stuck in, and we're not even sure what lies beyond that bullshit (if anything)

in constraint satisfaction problems, they even have a phase diagram spelled out like in physics and poo poo, with a region in the phase diagram where Nature basically says "lol go gently caress yourself"

crabrock
Aug 2, 2002

I

AM

MAGNIFICENT






ate all the Oreos posted:

p much. lots of people, even smart people who should know better, think machine learning is some exponential process that one day will just hit the part of the curve that flies off to infinity and suddenly we'll have god-AI.

from what i've heard from actual researchers though, there's tons and tons of saddle points and local minima and all sorts of other random bullshit in that graph that computers constantly get stuck in, and we're not even sure what lies beyond that bullshit (if anything)

it will reach a limit, and then the smarty smart mans at the computer factory will write a new code and it will be better.

i think even flawed computer driving machines will kill fewer people than people currently do.

Munkeymon
Aug 14, 2003

Motherfucker's got an
armor-piercing crowbar! Rigoddamndicu𝜆ous.




...And You Will Know Us by the Trail of the Dead would be a good motto for Tesla

infernal machines
Oct 11, 2012

we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.
https://twitter.com/danevandyck/status/751490901252329472

no poo poo


bob dobbs is dead posted:

it's not, "they perfectly self-drive", it's, "they self-drive 10x better than peeps"
not a low bar, not an impossibly high bar. w/o rain, I think googcar is getting close (and only googcar)

when you can stop qualifying that statement it'll stop being an impossibly high bar.

post hole digger
Mar 21, 2011

hifi posted:

the type of people that eat pico de gallo.

look at how stupid you are

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

qirex posted:

if you know anything about the sfpd they pretty much don't enforce traffic laws like ever so the reality is far, far worse
yea you can run reds infront of them and they'll just shake their head. literally see it happen constantly

about the only time i see them do enforcement is like hov lane near bryant at 4pm, or the harrison-3rd st shitshow usually has a traffic cop.

tho you can p much drive in the bus-only lanes there, since there's like 100 cars infront of you and after you that they aren't going to pull you over

infernal machines
Oct 11, 2012

we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

crabrock posted:

it will reach a limit, and then the smarty smart mans at the computer factory will write a new code and it will be better.

this is a religious belief at this point. it's a statement of pure faith

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

crabrock posted:

i think even flawed computer driving machines will kill fewer people than people currently do.

hope they can see through all inclement weather and understand missing pavement delineation and damaged signs like a human can or else it's a total nonstarter

b/c right now it looks like you'd need strong ai to do those things lol

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

C.H.O.M.E posted:

goddamn think about how terrifying that would be to experience

that's not even the scariest computer driving gif, I remember seeing a different one that tried to find a way to eliminate red lights entirely by tweaking follow distances so that intersecting traffic would be able to zip between vehicles without anyone involved slowing down

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

infernal machines posted:


when you can stop qualifying that statement it'll stop being an impossibly high bar.

i saw a googcar self-driving around last week in mountain view during the moderate rain. it's not like they gently caress off at the sight of rain like they did 4 years ago

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/5-things-we-learned-from-waymos-big-self-driving-car-report/

e: generally, I believe that there exist impossible limits to computation

the impossible limits to computation are not, "can drive a car", otherwise people wouldn't be able to do it

more like, "3-sat at alpha=4.8whatever in polytime"

Arcteryx Anarchist
Sep 15, 2007

Fun Shoe
oh and im suddenly reminded, with respect to the whole argument about self driving cars improving traffic, that the efficiency of perfectly coordinated traffic vs independent actors is already a topic of study and the improvement is barely enough to matter to everyday people because traffic will still exist, there's just a like a slight improvement to throughput, and they're mad about having to sit in traffic at all

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

bob dobbs is dead posted:

i saw a googcar self-driving around last week in mountain view during the moderate rain. it's not like they gently caress off at the sight of rain like they did 4 years ago

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/5-things-we-learned-from-waymos-big-self-driving-car-report/

e: generally, I believe that there exist impossible limits to computation

the impossible limits to computation are not, "can drive a car", otherwise people wouldn't be able to do it

more like, "3-sat at alpha=4.8whatever in polytime"

i don't think anyone here believes that self-driving cars are impossible, just that the timeline for them becoming reality on a commercial scale is more like 30 years rather than the 3 to 5 musk et al seem to think

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

bob dobbs is dead posted:

i saw a googcar self-driving around last week in mountain view during the moderate rain. it's not like they gently caress off at the sight of rain like they did 4 years ago

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/5-things-we-learned-from-waymos-big-self-driving-car-report/

lol that is "moderate rain" for mountain view

not even umbrella weather for anywhere that gets real rainfall intensities

also it's low speeds on millimeter-mapped surface streets and it still entirely relies upon pavement marking detection which water on a roadway fucks up royally, assuming it's properly maintained in the first place


the best was the intersection improvements goin on at two san antonio cross streets right near the googcar facility: they were building new signal mast arms so for a couple of months there were two sets of signals up w/ the new ones taped over

as you can imagine the self driving cars had a really hard time w/ this - i saw one sitting in a left turn lane and spend the entire protected turn cycle thinking about what it was lookin at while all the cars behind it lost their poo poo

crabrock
Aug 2, 2002

I

AM

MAGNIFICENT






infernal machines posted:

this is a religious belief at this point. it's a statement of pure faith

i'm carrying around a computer in my pocket that is cheaper and more powerful than the one i bought in high school. why are you so sure it's impossible? I'm not saying there won't be a ton of death/failure along the way, but somebody will eventually get it good enough.

flakeloaf
Feb 26, 2003

Still better than android clock

ate all the Oreos posted:

p much. lots of people, even smart people who should know better, think machine learning is some exponential process that one day will just hit the part of the curve that flies off to infinity and suddenly we'll have god-AI.

from what i've heard from actual researchers though, there's tons and tons of saddle points and local minima and all sorts of other random bullshit in that graph that computers constantly get stuck in, and we're not even sure what lies beyond that bullshit (if anything)

self-awareness immediately precedes self-destruction

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

crabrock posted:

i'm carrying around a computer in my pocket that is cheaper and more powerful than the one i bought in high school. why are you so sure it's impossible? I'm not saying there won't be a ton of death/failure along the way, but somebody will eventually get it good enough.

it needs to be able to beat humans at the things humans are good at: intuitive understanding of things it has never seen before in less than ideal conditions for its sensors, including missing huge amounts of crucial identifying information

if you can do that you can entirely replace humans at many other things than driving

flakeloaf
Feb 26, 2003

Still better than android clock

prediction: nobody who is currently qualified to drive a car will be relieved of that responsibility by a car-driving computer

except perhaps for someone testing a car-driving computer who gets run over and can't drive anymore but htat's not really where i was going with that

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde
we don't even automate trains

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

if you can do that you can entirely replace humans at many other things than driving

which, again, is probably not impossible, it's just decades away

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

also since you obliquely brought up moore's law with the whole computer in your pocket thing i might as well mention that it's gonna be real interesting to see what happens when we finally slam up against the physics wall at the end of silicon in a few years

BangersInMyKnickers
Nov 3, 2004

I have a thing for courageous dongles

ate all the Oreos posted:

which, again, is probably not impossible, it's just decades away

I don't think its something we will see in our lifetime beyond maybe some novelty expensive poo poo

crabrock
Aug 2, 2002

I

AM

MAGNIFICENT






trains also don't kill 35,000 people a year in the US, so there's not a ton of need... but also there are systems in place that automate parts of driving the train

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

we don't even automate trains

lots of automated lines in copenhagen, barcelona, paris, sao paulo metros, where the peeps in the train are for customer service, not doing anything

there's also 2 orders of magnitude less cost savings, something like that. how many train drivers do you know? how many car drivers?

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

crabrock posted:

trains also don't kill 35,000 people a year in the US, so there's not a ton of need... but also there are systems in place that automate parts of driving the train

they probably would [kill tons of people] if they didn't have a ton of safety mechanisms and strict training and the stuff that we very explicitly don't do for cars but could that would be much more immediate and much more effective at saving lives

BangersInMyKnickers
Nov 3, 2004

I have a thing for courageous dongles

ate all the Oreos posted:

also since you obliquely brought up moore's law with the whole computer in your pocket thing i might as well mention that it's gonna be real interesting to see what happens when we finally slam up against the physics wall at the end of silicon in a few years

doped diamond transistors most likely. That stuff is still in its infancy but its working really well in high power applications where performance actually improves as internal temps increase

infernal machines
Oct 11, 2012

we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

crabrock posted:

i'm carrying around a computer in my pocket that is cheaper and more powerful than the one i bought in high school. why are you so sure it's impossible?

why do you think that's in any way related to whether autonomous vehicles will be practicable as envisioned?

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
we actually pretty much hit end of moore's law for cpu's

gpu's still skipping along fine

infernal machines
Oct 11, 2012

we monitor many frequencies. we listen always. came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. it played us a mighty dub.

ate all the Oreos posted:

which, again, is probably not impossible, it's just decades away

it's all popular science zeplins and rocketplanes and gyrojets are the future style bullshit. by the time the technology exists to make it work as envisioned it'll be solving a problem that no longer exists or has changed som much as to make it an impractical solution

crabrock
Aug 2, 2002

I

AM

MAGNIFICENT






ate all the Oreos posted:

also since you obliquely brought up moore's law with the whole computer in your pocket thing i might as well mention that it's gonna be real interesting to see what happens when we finally slam up against the physics wall at the end of silicon in a few years

nah that wasn't the point, more of a "people will find a way to do what seems impossible now, at some point."

I mean you're arguing that having a computer drive around streets is like trying to travel faster than the speed of light. It's a task that could be accomplished even with technology that exists right now. It wouldn't be pretty and it's definitely not ready to be used in that way, but if some totalitarian state dictated that only driverless cars were allowed from now on, we'd make it work.

also the answer to the moore's law thing is "more cores! totallycountscanthearyoulalala"

personal air travel is pretty much always gonna be future poo poo because of all the problems you cite +3d

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

ate all the Oreos posted:

which, again, is probably not impossible, it's just decades away

it's not even realistically achievable w/ our current understanding of science, which is why google et al attempted to brute force it via 3d mapping

you could accurately claim that we're closer to figuring out cold fusion

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Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

crabrock posted:

nah that wasn't the point, more of a "people will find a way to do what seems impossible now, at some point."

I mean you're arguing that having a computer drive around streets is like trying to travel faster than the speed of light. It's a task that could be accomplished even with technology that exists right now. It wouldn't be pretty and it's definitely not ready to be used in that way, but if some totalitarian state dictated that only driverless cars were allowed from now on, we'd make it work.

also the answer to the moore's law thing is "more cores! totallycountscanthearyoulalala"

as i said earlier nobody here thinks it can't be done, just that the technology for it to be done well (let alone on a large cost-effective scale) won't be available for decades at best.

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