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Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

You can fly over the pole.

Not without crossing the Canadian or Icelandic FIR

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...utm_name=iossmf

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Discendo Vox posted:

What time do markets open in Russia?

I would wait for American market to open for poo poo to kick really in, meaning 9:30am EST.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Mokotow posted:

Not without crossing the Canadian or Icelandic FIR

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...utm_name=iossmf

Huh, TIL. Africa it is.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Shes Not Impressed posted:

It's about 10am.
Still have a good 10 hours of fighting before poo poo hits the fan there.

The ruble might go batshit though before then.

Thanks. CommieGIR can we get zenrus in the OP?

https://zenrus.ru/

(plus any more official sites folks would recommend)

Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

Mokotow posted:

https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg

Just like this account, I’m watching these two flights that have restricted airspace ahead. Unless some special exception is made, they’ll need to turn around, refuel and… gently caress, I don’t know, go through Africa or round way around through Asia?

Do commercial airlines ever say “gently caress it” and go through restricted airspace anyway?

I mean, it’s a bad idea, but I don’t know what kind of response the Canadians would actually mount.

Rincewinds
Jul 30, 2014

MEAT IS MEAT
Edit: Sorry, fake, should been obvious.

Rincewinds fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Feb 27, 2022

busalover
Sep 12, 2020
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498046970614599682

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

You can fly over the pole.

Not a very nice way to treat a pole, imo.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




cinci zoo sniper posted:

I would wait for American market to open for poo poo to kick really in, meaning 9:30am EST.

Although in reflection, MOEX will definitely close trading way before that. It's going to crash immediately on opening into a failsafe state.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

TheRat posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGHBHJbQLbU is a clip of one blowing up in syria. It's bonkers

Ummm, so if the Russians were travelling with a group of these in formation, things would be really bad for them if a single TOS launcher got hit?

Vietnom nom nom
Oct 24, 2000
Forum Veteran

punk rebel ecks posted:

Pretty shocking to see how the consensus about him has changed:

https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1497697588254212096

Meh, you can't judge a take like that yet anyway.

Zelensky stuck around Kyiv and was steely faced, which when rallying your country against an invader is certainly important, so props to him for that. But the decisions he made in the run up to the conflict, including questions over mobilization, distribution of forces, military leadership choices, etc. etc. The public just doesn't have a clear picture of any of that yet, we likely won't have a full accounting for years if not decades.

Zelensky could easily have been making fundamental errors, and the Russians just ended up shooting themselves in the foot harder.

We just don't know.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

quote:

王毅阐述中方对当前乌克兰问题的五点立场
2022年02月27日05:08 | 来源:人民网-人民日报
小字号

  本报北京2月25日电 2月25日,国务委员兼外长王毅应约分别与英国外交大臣特拉斯、欧盟外交高级代表博雷利和法国总统顾问博纳通电话,重点就乌克兰局势深入交换意见。王毅阐述了中方对乌克兰问题的基本立场,概括为以下五点:

  一、中方主张尊重和保障各国的主权和领土完整,切实遵守联合国宪章宗旨和原则。这一立场是一贯的,也是明确的,在乌克兰问题上同样适用。

  二、中方倡导共同、综合、合作、可持续的安全观。认为一国的安全不能以损害他国安全为代价,地区安全更不能以强化甚至扩张军事集团来保障。冷战思维应当彻底摒弃。各国的合理安全关切应予尊重。在北约连续五轮东扩情况下,俄罗斯在安全方面的正当诉求理应得到重视和妥善解决。

  三、中方一直关注乌克兰问题的演变,目前的局势是我们不愿看到的。当务之急是各方保持必要克制,避免乌克兰现地事态继续恶化甚至走向失控。平民的生命财产安全应当得到有效保障,尤其要防止出现大规模人道主义危机。

  四、中方支持和鼓励一切有利于和平解决乌克兰危机的外交努力。中方欢迎俄罗斯和乌克兰尽快举行直接对话谈判。乌克兰问题的演变有着复杂历史经纬。乌克兰应当成为东西方沟通的桥梁,而不应沦为大国对抗的前沿。中方也支持欧方与俄罗斯就欧洲安全问题进行平等对话,秉持安全不可分割理念,最终形成平衡、有效、可持续的欧洲安全机制。

  五、中方认为联合国安理会应当为解决乌克兰问题发挥建设性作用,要以地区和平稳定为重,以各国普遍安全为重。安理会采取的行动应当给紧张局势降温而不是火上浇油,应当有利于推动外交解决而不是使局势进一步升级。鉴此,中方历来不赞成安理会决议动辄引用授权动武和制裁的第七章。

  王毅说,中国作为安理会常任理事国和负责任大国,始终忠实履行自身国际义务,为维护世界和平稳定发挥建设性作用。在和平与安全问题上,中国是纪录最好的大国。我们从未侵略他国、从不搞代理人战争、从不寻求势力范围、从不参与军事集团对抗。中国坚持走和平发展道路,致力于构建人类命运共同体。我们将继续坚定反对一切霸权强权,坚定维护广大发展中国家特别是中小国家的正当合法权益。

  《 人民日报 》( 2022年02月27日 03 版)

quote:

BEIJING, February 25. On February 25, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a telephone conversation with British Foreign Secretary Truss, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Borrell, and French Presidential Adviser Bona, focusing on in-depth exchanges of views on the situation in Ukraine. . Wang Yi expounded China's basic position on the Ukraine issue, which can be summarized in the following five points:

1. China advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and earnestly abide by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. This position is consistent and clear, and it applies equally to Ukraine.

2. China advocates a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept. It is believed that the security of one country cannot be at the expense of compromising the security of other countries, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military groups. The Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned. The legitimate security concerns of States should be respected. Under the circumstance of five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands should be taken seriously and properly addressed.

3. The Chinese side has been paying attention to the evolution of the Ukraine issue. The current situation is something we do not want to see. It is imperative that all parties exercise necessary restraint to prevent the situation in Ukraine from worsening or even going out of control. The safety of life and property of civilians should be effectively guaranteed, especially to prevent large-scale humanitarian crises.

Fourth, China supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. China welcomes direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible. The evolution of the Ukraine issue has complex historical latitudes and latitudes. Ukraine should be a bridge between East and West, not a frontier of great power confrontation. China also supports the EU and Russia to conduct equal dialogues on European security issues, uphold the concept of indivisibility of security, and ultimately form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism.

5. The Chinese side believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue, and should focus on regional peace and stability and the general security of all countries. Actions taken by the Security Council should cool tensions rather than fuel them, and should facilitate a diplomatic solution rather than further escalation. In view of this, China has always disapproved of Security Council resolutions that frequently invoke Chapter VII, which authorizes the use of force and sanctions.

Wang Yi said that as a permanent member of the Security Council and a responsible major country, China has always faithfully fulfilled its international obligations and played a constructive role in maintaining world peace and stability. When it comes to peace and security, China is a major power with the best record. We have never invaded other countries, never engaged in proxy wars, never sought spheres of influence, and never participated in military bloc confrontations. China adheres to the path of peaceful development and is committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind. We will continue to firmly oppose all hegemonic powers and firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries, especially small and medium-sized countries.

It's a considerable amount of puffery of course - India would be extremely interested to know that China has never invaded any countries; this is a live issue still today - but the point is that China wants to maintain Soviet-style moral high ground messaging on Ukraine whereas Russia seems to be going off-message on that whole "indivisibility of security in Europe" 'totally reasonable security buffers' détente theme it was playing not all that long ago, rather than ranting about the overthrowing the Maidan junta to the UN

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Concerned Citizen posted:

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498036418299453441

russian financial system looking a little wobbly, crisis of confidence going on

That's what you call a good old-fashioned bank run. grab as much devalued cash as you can before its gone.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I would wait for American market to open for poo poo to kick really in, meaning 9:30am EST.

US futures markets open Sunday at 23:00 UTC and will show where things are going.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Vietnom nom nom posted:

Meh, you can't judge a take like that yet anyway.

Zelensky stuck around Kyiv and was steely faced, which when rallying your country against an invader is certainly important, so props to him for that. But the decisions he made in the run up to the conflict, including questions over mobilization, distribution of forces, military leadership choices, etc. etc. The public just doesn't have a clear picture of any of that yet, we likely won't have a full accounting for years if not decades.

Zelensky could easily have been making fundamental errors, and the Russians just ended up shooting themselves in the foot harder.

We just don't know.

At the same time, always question anything that the NYT puts out.

Ashmole
Oct 5, 2008

This wish was granted by Former DILF
:siren: ik note: i'll kill on sight for any ww3 drivel in reply to this :siren:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498023555975450626?t=ZL6m8dEcVWKgU6ic4hZOOQ&s=19

Somebody fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Feb 27, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Situation in south still aint great.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498048091588595712

One road into Mariupol now basically

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Show me one photo of a Ukrainian or a member of NATO in territorial Russia, I dare you.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




The_Franz posted:

US futures markets open Sunday at 23:00 UTC and will show where things are going.

Currency will start moving around midnight as well, yeah. I was leaning into the direction of "full scale of damage will on be quantifiable once investors get to yank their poo poo".

Vietnom nom nom
Oct 24, 2000
Forum Veteran

The_Franz posted:

US futures markets open Sunday at 23:00 UTC and will show where things are going.

Australia's foreign exchange market opens in ~20 minutes. Things will start to get spicy then.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

Situation in south still aint great.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498048091588595712

One road into Mariupol now basically

Wasn't Berdyansk seized yesterday?

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Vietnom nom nom posted:

Australia's foreign exchange market opens in ~20 minutes. Things will start to get spicy then.

Japan also announced they are blocking Russian financial trading

LastCaress
May 8, 2004

bonobo

cinci zoo sniper posted:

You can fly over the pole.

Poland also closed airspace :colbert:

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498041936573349890

I have no idea how the UA is arranging logistics. There's still some amount of commuter traffic in between the cities...? I guess they're achieving it somehow.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498041936573349890

I have no idea how the UA is arranging logistics. There's still some amount of commuter traffic in between the cities...? I guess they're achieving it somehow.

It's their homeland and they don't need directions like the Russians lol

This is very good news.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Pook Good Mook posted:

Show me one photo of a Ukrainian or a member of NATO in territorial Russia, I dare you.

I mean that sounds like a fairly easy thing to acomplish. Think you need to limit your terms a bit more than that.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute
Denmark is sending 2700 M72 EC LAW, the newest weapon in the Royal Danish Army. It's strongly implied its our entire stock.

Trump fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Feb 27, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Wasn't Berdyansk seized yesterday?

They bypassed it and went toward the airport, so I thought it might be another one of those finger wide advances where they can't hold anything. This basically confirms that Ukr isn't holding the South East as well.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498041936573349890

I have no idea how the UA is arranging logistics. There's still some amount of commuter traffic in between the cities...? I guess they're achieving it somehow.

Cool OPSEC

TheBuilder
Jul 11, 2001
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!

I hope this dumb motherfucker steps in to moving traffic and gets squashed by a mass transit vehicle.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Man Plan Canal
Jul 11, 2000

Listen to the madman

Dante posted:

It was a joke more in line of "well we assume the people not-in-shelter are representative for the people in shelter". I do empirical analysis for a living, a N of 2000 is perfectly acceptable for a presidential poll and when you order polls you generally order for a round number.

Professionally, I've polled around 700,000 respondents in the last few years as parts of various projects. An N of far less than 2000 would be fine to saturate their target cells given their described sample frame, and given a 91-6 split on the parameter of interest, the classical margin of error is all but irrelevant anyway, a minuscule sample would be fine.

My reason for raising the round number is because it's very improbable to end up with a round number of respondents. Of course you target round numbers, but typically with CATI as a modality you have multiple calls going in parallel and so even if you turn off the tap at a round number, you end up with the last few calls trickling in. It would be very uncommon to call respondents serially such that you could actually say "I have 2,000, now I'm done". This is further complicated by mid-call attrition, and if they actually attempted to disqualify e.g. non-citizen respondents or minors. It's not necessarily a sign that it's fake -- they could very well have called in sequence one call at a time, or they could discard respondents after N=2,000 (this is not principled, since it is typically presumed that respondent order is exchangeable, and also why throw away valid data, but it wouldn't be a big deal), or they could have a true N different than N=2,000 and just reported the rounded number as pollsters sometimes do.

I was just responding from a framework of "Wow, it seems insane they're doing a poll in these conditions. Would I believe this poll?" and based on what I've seen the only major red flag is the odd round number, everything else seems in keeping with best practices and I wouldn't have any huge concerns from a TSE point of view.

RE: Your edit about selection issues -- it isn't necessarily. Low response rate is extremely common (and indeed more common in wealthier countries). It does inflate your risk of high total survey error, but only if there is differential nonresponse that correlates with the outcomes of interest conditional on the strata you're weighting to. Risk of displacement in Ukraine varies surely by age, sex, and location within the country, but they are stratifying for these. The weights create a design effect (which inflates variance / total MOE but polling firms only report classical MOE and there's also a deflationary pressure on the MOE because of how lopsided the parameters of interest are). Again I would be concerned about differential non-response by maternal language and past political allegiance but the former depends on how many maternal Russian speakers there are in the regions polled so it may not be a big deal. The latter would just be impossible to solve right now.

And then there's the smell test: based on past RATF in other settings, is this plausible? Answer: Definitely. So it passes the sniff test for me.

Man Plan Canal fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Sep 26, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

They bypassed it and went toward the airport, so I thought it might be another one of those finger wide advances where they can't hold anything. This basically confirms that Ukr isn't holding the South East as well.

Ah, I see. There was alleged intel of 2k marines landing in Mariupol' whereabouts, so maybe that was Berdyansk capture - shallow perimeter control by convoy, and then overkill amphibious assault.

-Anders
Feb 1, 2007

Denmark. Wait, what?

Trump posted:

Denmark is send 2700 M72 EC LAW, the newest weapon in the Royal Danish Army. It's strongly it basically our entire stock.

drat, I would have thought it was older AT-4s

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD

Mokotow posted:

Not without crossing the Canadian or Icelandic FIR

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...utm_name=iossmf

I think you've misunderstood what FIRs are - they aren't the same as airspace. It's just a way to divide up whose air traffic controllers are responsible for monitoring etc. Airspace in the context of banning flights is the upwards projection from your national territory and territorial waters. A lot of the Canada &Icelandic FIR is above international waters and so they are fine to fly through.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1497879767227543553

quote:

“Simple kit is best,” one senior defence source said. “That means secure communications and night vision equipment, handheld anti-tank and anti-air craft missiles, and of course ammunition.”
“Ukraine’s forces will be using between four and 10 times what they would expect to use from exercises, and the less well-trained may be using more still,” he added.
Getting the supplies to Ukrainian forces is also a challenge. In the lead-up to Russia’s attack on Thursday, Nato allies could deliver equipment by air or land, direct to military depots. But Ukraine’s skies are now dominated by Russian fighter jets, and Nato allies have said they will not provide air cover as that would effectively mean declaring war on Moscow. Many Ukrainian airfields have also been rendered unusable by missile strikes.
As a result, future deliveries will have to move in more covert conveys through contested territory, most likely from Poland which shares a 535km border with Ukraine and has been the main destination for the Nato troops deployed to its eastern flank this year.
On Saturday, there were reports that airborne Russian forces had landed in western Ukraine, potentially complicating deliveries further.
“Nothing has been cut off by the Russian advance,” a senior western intelligence official said. “There’s a broad range of . . . political and military assistance that can still be provided.”
There are some simple guidelines such aid convoys will probably follow, defence sources say. Trucks will need to avoid moving in bumper to bumper convoys and travel at a variable pace so they are harder to track and attack, and carry air defence weapons such as Stinger missiles and multi-barrel machine guns to deter Russian jets.
“The important thing is guard the handovers, get the supplies to the right place and then disperse them. You can’t just deposit in a depot,” said the defence source. “It’s complex but not difficult.”
Such operations become harder if field units are encircled — as may soon happen to Ukrainian troops fighting in the east of the country.
“Ukraine’s tactical units started the conflict with 10 days of munitions and that will now have been reduced,” said Jack Watling, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There is more in stockpiles but it has to be moved out to operational units . . . tricky if they are being surrounded.”
The last challenge is perhaps the most complex of all: what to do if Kyiv is taken, the Zelensky administration falls and Ukraine’s army and territorial reserve fragment into a mosaic of resistance forces, armed militias and civil movements.
“Nato only works with governments,” another western intelligence official said.
Weapons might also fall into Russian hands and be turned against the resistance. Poland, although it recently signed a tripartite security agreement with Ukraine and the UK, might balk at remaining a base for supplies in such a confusing scenario.
“It is one thing to accept refugees, as Poland is so commendably doing now,” said a senior former western intelligence official. “But it is another thing to shift weapons clandestinely across a border at night — an action Russia might view as a casus belli.”
Western experience of supporting rebel movements — be that in Central America or Afghanistan in the 1980s, or Syria in this century — has been fraught with legal, political and ethical controversy. The one country that has made it a central tenet of its military strategy is Iran, which has cultivated and sustained a network of allies across the Middle East, analysts said.
Sustaining resistance movements “can be a highly dynamic process as the conflict evolves often unexpectedly”, Raine said.
Nor is there any recent precedent of western countries supporting the resistance movement of an internationally recognised government in exile. The last time that happened, analysts say, was during the second world war, when Charles de Gaulle rallied the French resistance from London.
“If the government falls, Zelensky will need to escape Kyiv for Lviv or Poland,” said the defence source. “There is a large and rich Ukrainian diaspora that can provide support. He represents hope, and the promise that Ukraine will return. It’s important that he survives.”

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

-Anders posted:

drat, I would have thought it was older AT-4s

Or the old Carl Gustav that was replaced.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

punk rebel ecks posted:

Pretty shocking to see how the consensus about him has changed:

https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1497697588254212096

the extra dumb thing about this is that zelensky has been impressively navigating an absolute nightmare of a political situation for a long time now, certainly far before this all popped off. Even if you didn't think he was great, he was doing solidly well with a totally hosed up situation.

Zelensky since the invasion though has definitely been about as effective and inspiring as any leader could actually hope to be when getting invaded by a nuclear-armed super power

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Ah, I see. There was alleged intel of 2k marines landing in Mariupol' whereabouts, so maybe that was Berdyansk capture - shallow perimeter control by convoy, and then overkill amphibious assault.

https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1498005055613685762?s=20&t=0oH4Ws0TjKye0Qe5PytVow

Some reporting that Mariupol is already surrounded.

I'm sure that city isn't surrendering though.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Dancing in those shoes prepared Zelensky for the trials of war

https://twitter.com/swordsjew/status/1498050747950415876?t=j5g3moH6LSL16rdl4J-tjw&s=19

Full video. It feels like a fever dream.

https://youtu.be/kgOSrw9Q8rc

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

TheRat posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGHBHJbQLbU is a clip of one blowing up in syria. It's bonkers

allahu akbar indeed, good fuckin lord

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