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Another Person posted:i feel like, especially since 2010, tactical voting has gained more and more currency as an idea online than it really deserves merit for, definitely more discussion than it sees practice. it is a somewhat academic stance to take towards voting, one which very few in the electorate can be bothered with due to the prerequisite research that you need to invest in to get anything out of, and due to the fact that you are effectively gambling on believing that the electorate will not change in any radical fashion compared to the previous election. ie, will turnout change, will a new divisive issue develop, will there be a local scandal, etc. you are basically hoping that the projection someone has made based on last election holds true in this election. some real black box voting, where the only thing that matters to a vote is the strategy and not the policies, people or events that might drive such a decision. it is a psephologists game, and nobody elses. If you have worked a seat for a while, have a bank of data and a ground game you can make huge inroads by squeezing for tactical votes. It can take a couple of election cycles to work though. Back when I was a campaign manager we were hammering four districts with a tactical vote message, it didn't really land and we lost by a 0.3%. At the next election we deployed the same message updated with "if just 300 voters had switched blah blah" and we achieved a huge swing in those areas, we still lost but that's politics. For a long while this was the only way the Lib Dems ever won a seat and they use the tactic extensively to this day. Hang around politicos and it won't be long until you hear about once of their infamous bar charts. I would 100% vote tactically for the Lib Dem in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal. It has more chance of delivering a Labour government than any other action I can take. Obviously I will be off campaigning elsewhere because who cares about that seat, if by some quirk of fate Labour take it it is very unlikely to be anything to do with campaigning on the ground. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Sep 26, 2019 |
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Sep 26, 2019 16:01
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brian posted:i mean i'd wait for a lot more corroborating evidence before taking any 'jess phillips under attack' story at face value hmm yes, because there's certainly no precedent for female Labour MP's being attacked, must be some else afoot.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:03
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Just like to point out Ken Clarke and Amber Rudd both voted to gently caress over the tory party conference. What a week.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:03
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Because they are a spiteful lot i really hope the tories keep voting Boris down because they want to keep his streak going
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Sep 26, 2019 16:03
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Tactical voting is bullshit that preserves rigid political hegemony. If you're in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal then still vote Labour. For all you know the majority of people voting Lib Dem are doing exactly the same. Maybe Labour doesn't win that seat this time but an increased vote share helps move the dial and makes them viable contenders next time round.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:05
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Another braingenius move from Cummies that is sure not to backfire and give Corbyn a fantastic platform to look good on.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:05
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Hey KFC_UKI, etc.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:06
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Necrothatcher posted:Another braingenius move from Cummies that is sure not to backfire and give Corbyn a fantastic platform to look good on. Boris is too busy thinking about No Deal Brexit to fulfill his actual governmental role.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:07
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sebzilla posted:I'm busily telling all my weirdo middle class hippy XR-type friends in my constituency of Stroud who might vote for Molly Scott Cato (Green) that they should tactically vote Labour to keep the Tories out. Following the thread logic I should be... encouraging them to follow their hearts, vote Green, split the anti-Tory vote and let David Drew's 600ish majority evaporate? I mean, if they give the slightest poo poo about the environment then surely they should be 100% on board with Labour's environmental policy?
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Sep 26, 2019 16:08
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Aramoro posted:hmm yes, because there's certainly no precedent for female Labour MP's being attacked, must be some else afoot. yes but there's also a precedent for her misrepresenting the facts in regards to her being attacked, specifically around an attack on her constituency office, which I believe turned out to not be unrelated to politics and her IIRC I didn't even say she was wrong just that you should look for corroborating evidence, that shouldn't be deserving of your lovely hyperarrogant megamoralising shtick that you do every five minutes
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Sep 26, 2019 16:11
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Another Person posted:Interesting international taxation info. That's cool, thanks! My initial doubts were mostly surfacing after I've discovered that SalesForce has decided to expand its Irish operations while it originally had announced they were going to expand the UK one - they bought 2 city blocks in Dublin and are currently building a gigantic "SalesForce Tower", with a new EMEA HQ officespace and apartment blocks meant at least in part for employees. I was wondering how many other large companies are going to go that route with Brexit looming at the horizon.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:12
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Aramoro posted:hmm yes, because there's certainly no precedent for female Labour MP's being attacked, must be some else afoot. She's a known liar, and you're a known disingenous bad poster.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:14
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Necrothatcher posted:Another braingenius move from Cummies that is sure not to backfire and give Corbyn a fantastic platform to look good on. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if they picked Raab as he's both expendable and most willing to instigate a fist fight with a pensioner.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:15
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https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1177238784674603010 lol Rachel Johnson calling her own brother a corrupt poo poo. And regardless of the politics of the guy who called Jess a fascist it will be blamed on the left, just as every neo nazi twitter oval office is blamed on Jeremy Corbyn.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:16
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Hilarious how both Johnsons siblings have now taken turns throwing him under the bus. You have to be truly awful for something like that to happen.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:21
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Rarity posted:Tactical voting is bullshit that preserves rigid political hegemony. If you're in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal then still vote Labour. For all you know the majority of people voting Lib Dem are doing exactly the same. Maybe Labour doesn't win that seat this time but an increased vote share helps move the dial and makes them viable contenders next time round. This is ignorant of the short term losses that are incurred by that. The LDs have in the past year done a lot of legwork in loving the Tories as hard as they can. You might not like their policies but at this point if the Tories say "up" the LDs will say "down" out of spite. Given how badly hosed the LDs were under coalition (yes, with their consent), they'd probably self immolate before they ever even went near one with the Tories again. If people doesn't vote Lib Dem in a LD/Tory Marginals and we have the catastrophe of another Tory majority with the Tories leaving the EU with No deal as a result, the short term consequences are dire. (The long term consequences are also absolutely dire, but we'll at least pretend that overhauling the way we think about voting is a priority above this) There is a point where ideological voting should fall to practicality and I think this is probably the most stark example of that. If you live in a Tory marginal beat the goddamn Tories first.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:24
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Eagerly looking forward to this week's podcast
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Sep 26, 2019 16:24
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The lib dems absolutely will not gently caress the tories and they will absolutely agree with them 100% on everything, including brexit if it got them back into power.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:25
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CyberPingu posted:Eagerly looking forward to this week's podcast Special Guest: Boris Johnson (that's the reason he's not doing the PMQ).
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Sep 26, 2019 16:25
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How did I not see this clip of Bernard Jenkins on Newsnight? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXvD4bNAEVc He is such a piece of poo poo.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:26
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Natural 20 posted:This is ignorant of the short term losses that are incurred by that. You have a lot more faith in the lib dems not being cowards and backstabbing labour to side with the tories than me
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Sep 26, 2019 16:27
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Natural 20 posted:beat the goddamn Tories first. Agreed, which is why you don't vote Lib Dem
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Sep 26, 2019 16:27
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On the flip side I'd rather have a yellow tory than a blue tory in parliament just for things like todays vote on the recess for the tory party conference.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:29
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This is probably not kind to say but I think Bozo was attracted to that Arcuri woman because she looks alarmingly like him with a better haircut.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:30
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Yes there are a lot of situations where you can 'tactically' shift votes away from the tories, but if you're shifting them to the lib dems, you're just shifting them to a party who are only going to enter a coalition with the tories, so you're effectively voting for the tories. I feel like the tactical voting angle is more often than not the 'electability' argument writ large. You just have to convince the electorate of an area that it's a tory / lib dem contest, and disillusioned labour voters will stay home or vote for one of the wankers. You're telling people not to vote for someone because nobody votes for them, which lowers the number of people voting for them, and continues the cycle of despair and polls saying not to bother trying to flip the seat. Whereas if everyone who wants a fairer country got out and voted for the party they want, they could swing a whole bunch of supposedly safe seats,at least if people weren't throwing their votes at the Pissbirds instead. Bobby Deluxe fucked around with this message at 16:36 on Sep 26, 2019 |
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Sep 26, 2019 16:31
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CyberPingu posted:Eagerly looking forward to this week's podcast Thanks! Anything specific you like about it or think we could do better?
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Sep 26, 2019 16:32
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Natural 20 posted:This is ignorant of the short term losses that are incurred by that. This is more complicated than it seems because of the nature of the Lib Dems' opposition to the Tories. They're trying to cannibalise them, stripping away as many Cameron Conservatives as they can. They won't prop up Johnson, but only because they see an opportunity for themselves to become a robber-baron right-wing government like the one that pushed us to the brink from 2010 to 2015. They're dangerous because they're offering superficial answers to deep-rooted problems while continuing the policies and mindset that got us into this whole mess in the first place. Think of the Lib Dems, the BXP, and the Tories as engaged in a three-way civil war for the future of the British right and you won't go far wrong.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:33
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Miftan posted:You have a lot more faith in the lib dems not being cowards and backstabbing labour to side with the tories than me It's not about that, it's about Labour having the highest number of MPs if at all possible so their seen as having the moral right to govern. As someone mentioned a page ago Labour - 300, Tories - 299, LDs - 51 is a far better result than Labour 300, Tories 300, LDs - 50. Darth Walrus posted:This is more complicated than it seems because of the nature of the Lib Dems' opposition to the Tories. They're trying to cannibalise them, stripping away as many Cameron Conservatives as they can. They won't prop up Johnson, but only because they see an opportunity for themselves to become a robber-baron right-wing government like the one that pushed us to the brink from 2010 to 2015. They're dangerous because they're offering superficial answers to deep-rooted problems while continuing the policies and mindset that got us into this whole mess in the first place. Think of the Lib Dems, the BXP, and the Tories as engaged in a three-way civil war for the future of the British right and you won't go far wrong. This is also true, the Lib Dems have always tried to look both ways but right now they are tacking squarely right. I think people saying that Swinson is throwing away her seat by comparing Scottish to English nationalism are missing the point entirely. She won't convince nationalists, except maybe some right of centre remainers, she is looking for the Tory votes. Might put some dosh on her holding if the odds are decent actually. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Sep 26, 2019 |
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Sep 26, 2019 16:33
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brian posted:yes but there's also a precedent for her misrepresenting the facts in regards to her being attacked, specifically around an attack on her constituency office, which I believe turned out to not be unrelated to politics and her IIRC I mean you say that but read any of the news articles around it right now and scroll down to the comments and you'll find plenty of support for people attacking MPs. On balance is seems entirely believable that someone would attack Jess Phillips.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:35
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Aramoro posted:I mean you say that but read any of the news articles around it right now and scroll down to the comments and you'll find plenty of support for people attacking MPs. On balance is seems entirely believable that someone would attack Jess Phillips. dude just stop, you're not this clever manipulator you think you are
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Sep 26, 2019 16:36
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Absolutely gently caress the Lib Dems, but we're facing a possibility of a newly total-fascist Tory party collapsing the economy and having a mandate for absolute terror. FPTP is FPTP, it's poo poo but it's going nowhere for now. Tactical voting is unfortunately a must for many of us. You maintaining your personal electoral purity won't feel as comforting when you watch foreign nationals being dragged off to internment camps en masse and the NHS is sold to the US for a tuppence.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:37
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https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1177169194556755971 drat I keep accidentally selling weaponry to Saudi Arabia even after I was ordered to stop this is so embarrassing
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Sep 26, 2019 16:40
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Comrade Fakename posted:Absolutely gently caress the Lib Dems, but we're facing a possibility of a newly total-fascist Tory party collapsing the economy and having a mandate for absolute terror. FPTP is FPTP, it's poo poo but it's going nowhere for now. Tactical voting is unfortunately a must for many of us. You maintaining your personal electoral purity won't feel as comforting when you watch foreign nationals being dragged off to internment camps en masse and the NHS is sold to the US for a tuppence. mate that has been happening for 9 years with tactical voting
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Sep 26, 2019 16:40
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I voted Lib Dem in my marginal Con/Lib constituency (West Oxford) to get rid of a conservative MP, and I'll likely do so again. The Lib Dems may be yellow tories, but they're still a different party to the blue tories and that matters when it comes to parliamentary numbers, forming a government, parliamentary shenanigans like the last few months.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:41
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Comrade Fakename posted:Absolutely gently caress the Lib Dems, but we're facing a possibility of a newly total-fascist Tory party collapsing the economy and having a mandate for absolute terror. FPTP is FPTP, it's poo poo but it's going nowhere for now. Tactical voting is unfortunately a must for many of us. You maintaining your personal electoral purity won't feel as comforting when you watch foreign nationals being dragged off to internment camps en masse and the NHS is sold to the US for a tuppence. I mean you'll get that if you vote Lib Dem too it's just whoever is Lib Dem leader by then will just act as a heat sink for all the bad poo poo happening while their coalition partners do exactly what you're describing.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:42
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brian posted:dude just stop, you're not this clever manipulator you think you are Are you trying to say you think it's more likely Phillips has fabricated this?
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Sep 26, 2019 16:42
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Comrade Fakename posted:Absolutely gently caress the Lib Dems, but we're facing a possibility of a newly total-fascist Tory party collapsing the economy and having a mandate for absolute terror. FPTP is FPTP, it's poo poo but it's going nowhere for now. Tactical voting is unfortunately a must for many of us. You maintaining your personal electoral purity won't feel as comforting when you watch foreign nationals being dragged off to internment camps en masse and the NHS is sold to the US for a tuppence. The libs are absolutely going to bolster the tories as long as they have the numbers along with the DUP, even if Labour are the largest non majority party.
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Sep 26, 2019 16:43
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Aramoro posted:Are you trying to say you think it's more likely Phillips has fabricated this? no again, you are not a conversational wizard and your bullshit is incredibly apparent
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Sep 26, 2019 16:43
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maybe next time the lib dems can get a 10p tax on plastic bags to really make it worthwhile
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Sep 26, 2019 16:43
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Aramoro posted:Are you trying to say you think it's more likely Phillips has fabricated this? Are you doing a bit or something?
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Sep 26, 2019 16:45
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