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Harold Fjord posted:both are interesting but I agree that the latter is more likely to be common in this election and is more specifically relevant to what's going to happen down-ballot So, we saw an example of this in 2016 with what became known as Panera districts. 23(?) districts went from Romney->Clinton but still sent a Republican to the House. Flipping the bulk of those districts blue was the backbone of the Dem takeover in 2018. Ballot splitting for 2020 features two questions, I think. 1. What happens to the freshman reps in the actual Panera districts? Trump is on the ballot and he wasn't on 2018. Do they hold those seats? 2. What will happen in Trump->Biden districts with GOP incumbents? Anyone who tells you they know the answer on that is lying, of course, but it helps to disaggregate the two for speculation.
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Jun 17, 2020 20:34
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Paracaidas posted:So, we saw an example of this in 2016 with what became known as Panera districts. 23(?) districts went from Romney->Clinton but still sent a Republican to the House. Flipping the bulk of those districts blue was the backbone of the Dem takeover in 2018. The generic house ballot is pretty much tracking the Biden lead, so it seems likely that Democrats are likely to hold their 2018 gains, if it stays that way.
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Jun 17, 2020 20:43
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I am curious about Cunningham in 1-SC, that win was a real confluence of mistakes by the R candidate and some excellent wedgework from Cunningham. The new R candidate is a generic trumplicker.
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Jun 17, 2020 20:57
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Discendo Vox posted:I am curious about Cunningham in 1-SC, that win was a real confluence of mistakes by the R candidate and some excellent wedgework from Cunningham. The new R candidate is a generic trumplicker. The Post and Courier and Charleston had a great write-thru on what happened with the Cunningham victory. It was a lot more than just offshore drilling that sunk Katie Arrington: https://www.postandcourier.com/poli...cb20045be1.html Also, his opponent now has been sniffing around SC politics in some form for several years now. She finally got elected to a State House seat a few years back. She also tried to primary Lindsey Graham in 2014. She's also the first woman to graduate from The Citadel. Strong candidate by Republican terms, but yes, a total Trump bootlicker.
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Jun 17, 2020 21:11
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so the bolton book has started to leak and holy gently caress its bad. i am curious how much it will effect polling.
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Jun 17, 2020 21:13
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so the bolton book has started to leak and holy gently caress its bad. i am curious how much it will effect polling. It's going to make great fodder for Lincoln Project ads, but there's a point at which Biden hits a ceiling, and I don't know if any of the voters Trump has left will care about this - because the ones who do have already abandoned him for much better reasons.
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Jun 17, 2020 21:16
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:It's going to make great fodder for Lincoln Project ads, but there's a point at which Biden hits a ceiling, and I don't know if any of the voters Trump has left will care about this - because the ones who do have already abandoned him for much better reasons. true but like you said, its gonna be a hell of an ad. also i dont think trump has hit his floor yet but we will see.
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Jun 17, 2020 21:18
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it might convince the endangered Republican foreign policy voter to stay home
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Jun 17, 2020 21:19
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:it might convince the endangered Republican foreign policy voter to stay home yeah. i think this will probably piss off the hawk types and poo poo enough to stay home. idk we will see as more of the book comes out.
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Jun 17, 2020 21:22
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Bolton book is hot garbage and anyone saying Bolton is speaking sincerely forgets how much of a liar and a lunatic he is. Take everything with a massive brain of salt
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Jun 17, 2020 21:28
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Bolton book is hot garbage and anyone saying Bolton is speaking sincerely forgets how much of a liar and a lunatic he is. Take everything with a massive brain of salt bolton is a vengeful rear end in a top hat who has made a career out of ruining his bureaucratic enemies through leaks, speaking sincerely isn't in his vocabulary but leaking stuff to hurt people he doesn't like is very much in it
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Jun 17, 2020 21:41
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Gonna get my name changed to "A massive brain of salt" 
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Jun 17, 2020 22:24
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I stand by my statement 
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Jun 17, 2020 22:34
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Bolton book is hot garbage and anyone saying Bolton is speaking sincerely forgets how much of a liar and a lunatic he is. Take everything with a massive brain of salt How so? As far as I’m concerned Bolton’s is an awful neoconservative but at the same time he isn’t stupid. He’s strongly against foreign intervention and doesn’t want anyone using the government for purely personal gains. Like Trump.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:45
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Gabriel S. posted:How so? I've got some real bad news for you about what Bolton believes in.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:46
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I've got some real bad news for you about what Bolton believes in. its poorly worded but i read that as a "bolton likes to dish it out, not so much take it" w/r/t "foreign intervention" it is probably incorrect to ascribe any noble motives to bolton, but neocons have been one of the parts of the republican party that most consistently despise trump so there's likely some ideological clash there
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Jun 17, 2020 22:48
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I've got some real bad news for you about what Bolton believes in. I know what he believes in and it’s ridiculous American Exceptionalism but I don’t think he’s a pathological lier like Trump. Edit - Maybe his claims about Trump aren’t true but I’d be hesitant to dismiss them outright. On the other hand I’d throw Don Jrs book straight into trash. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Jun 17, 2020 |
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Jun 17, 2020 22:49
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evilweasel posted:its poorly worded but i read that as a "bolton likes to dish it out, not so much take it" w/r/t "foreign intervention" I don't think anyone would describe Bolton as "against foreign intervention" because foreign intervention is literally his favorite thing and his entire foreign policy playbook. It's actually Trump that is leagues apart from the typical neoconservative in that he is actively against foreign intervention, Venezuela aside (and its not clear that he even knows where Venezuela is). I think it is true though that he is a skilled political knife fighter who is very interested in making Trump look bad.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:49
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I don't think anyone would describe Bolton as "against foreign intervention" because foreign intervention is literally his favorite thing and his entire foreign policy playbook. I think it is true though that he is a skilled political knife fighter who is very interested in making Trump look bad. he likes being on the giving end of foreign intervention, he (probably) dislikes america being on the receiving end of foreign intervention (e.g. what russia did)
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Jun 17, 2020 22:51
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well, he's against foreign intervention in a lot of countries, because that would distract from the primary goal of invading Iran.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:52
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“Against foreigners” is more accurate
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Jun 17, 2020 22:53
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evilweasel posted:he likes being on the giving end of foreign intervention, he (probably) dislikes america being on the receiving end of foreign intervention (e.g. what russia did) Yea, Bolton is definitely not a fan of Russia. I don't know if I'd call him a "pathological liar" but he is making a very particular argument with his book (Trump is uniquely unfit and I was one of the adults in the room who tried to reign him in! I quit and wasn't fired) while also trying to politically shank him out of revenge, because he is also legendarily petty.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:54
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Yea, Bolton is definitely not a fan of Russia. yeah i dont think he's a pathological liar because that's just not an effective trait: bolton is dangerous to his internal enemies because he finds damaging, true things and leaks them. if he leaked christie was sent for a big mac sort of damaging stories that weren't actually true, he'd have lost his ability to get his leaks published when and where he wants them.
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Jun 17, 2020 22:58
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On the one hand, gently caress Bolton; but on the other, eh, Bolton. I hate how Trump has made heroes out of total villains.
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Jun 17, 2020 23:39
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Chalk another up to I don’t think Bolton would lie about anything trump related. He already knows this book will be picked apart legally and in the public sphere, motives and terrible politics aside I’d be fairly sure he was careful about that. Now with his own bits of information like “I was the adult in the room!” Yes I can believe he would say whatever he wants to make himself sound good. I imagine he had a narrative throughout the book much like many have already. “I’m not dumb I know trump was a character but I thought I could work with him / help him see this point of view etc” “It started to become clear he was not interested etc” “He only followed Fox News / himself” “I tried to convince him!” “I quit/ was fired”
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Jun 17, 2020 23:51
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issuing correction on a previous post of mine, regarding the war criminal John Bolton. you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to him"
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Jun 18, 2020 00:36
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My take on the John Bolton book: 1) John Bolton is an utterly repellent human/walrus hybrid 2) No one should give him a dime for this book, because all it proves is that he cared more about making money off of Trump's criminality and incompetence than actually getting it out into the public sphere 3) That said, the leaks from this book will occupy Trump for another couple weeks' worth of rage-tweeting about how much he hates Bolton's mustache and his stupid dumb poopy face and how he FIRED HIM LIKE A DOG Verdict? let_them_fight.gif
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Jun 18, 2020 00:53
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:issuing correction on a previous post of mine, regarding the war criminal John Bolton. you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to him" Just to clarify - I’m not defending him. I’m just saying I believe what he is saying.
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Jun 18, 2020 01:19
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teacup posted:Chalk another up to I don’t think Bolton would lie about anything trump related. He already knows this book will be picked apart legally and in the public sphere, motives and terrible politics aside I’d be fairly sure he was careful about that. yeah. i dont think bolton lied about much outside the standard "i was the smart one" poo poo. dudes a loving monster imperialist rear end in a top hat but i think he probably hates the fact that trump would sell out his own country and etc because i do think Bolton does view himself genuinely as a patriot(with all the hosed up poo poo attached) and is probably disgusted by trumps various actions but since he is a gross ghoul, he wants to make money off of it. basicaly i believe the book but i'll wait for the twitter threads or audible points/sale if i ever want to read it.
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Jun 18, 2020 01:19
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I wonder if Trump will fire Pompeo for passing a note to Bolton that Trump was full of poo poo. He's done even more immature things.
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Jun 18, 2020 02:23
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FiveThirtyEight has dropped its first “polling average” of the race, showing Biden with an lead average of 9 points: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/ Interesting to note is that this is not a forecast from them quite yet. Their math shows Biden winning with 368 EVs to Trump’s 170 EVs. The entire article is carefully worded, saying that the race could (and will) inevitably tighten. No word on when they will drop their forecast model showing percentages and daily EV totals.
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Jun 18, 2020 14:01
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Get ready for some angry tweets https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1273738133839007751
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Jun 18, 2020 23:19
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Vice News has Republicans insiders on background telling them that their internal polls are pretty much as bad as what the public polls are saying, and that if the election were to be held today it would be a wipeout where they'd lose the WH, the Senate, and lose more seats in the House: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xg8wya/trumps-poll-numbers-are-so-bad-the-gop-is-starting-to-panic-about-a-wipeout The big take aways:
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Jun 19, 2020 17:36
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DutchDupe posted:They are seeing significant erosion among seniors and Gen-Xers Boomers' lead addled brains will drive them forward forevermore.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:41
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DutchDupe posted:Strategist from both parties expect Doug Jones and Martha McSally to lose. Notable that McSally appears to be considered even more DOA than Cory Gardner in CO. Probably doesn't help that Hickenlooper keeps making monumentally stupid, unforced errors.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:43
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I feel bad for Doug Jones. Been a dead man walking for 3 years.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:45
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I feel bad for Doug Jones. Been a dead man walking for 3 years. He still punked the poo poo out of Jeff Sessions and pantsed the Alabama GOP; he did what we needed him to do.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:51
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I feel bad for Doug Jones. Been a dead man walking for 3 years. If it's any consolation, Jones has maintained a positive net approval rating which is a pretty stunning achievement considering how liberal he is compared to Alabama. Still dead man walking but he did what he could. Maybe he can be Biden's AG if Biden wins.
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Jun 19, 2020 18:07
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I feel bad for Doug Jones. Been a dead man walking for 3 years. Still a good gig: $174K/year for three years access to the speaking circuit / lobbying / consulting gigs for the rest of your life people will address you as "Senator"
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Jun 19, 2020 18:36
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DutchDupe posted:Vice News has Republicans insiders on background telling them that their internal polls are pretty much as bad as what the public polls are saying, and that if the election were to be held today it would be a wipeout where they'd lose the WH, the Senate, and lose more seats in the House: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xg8wya/trumps-poll-numbers-are-so-bad-the-gop-is-starting-to-panic-about-a-wipeout yeah. its still early but i think trump is probably hosed. there will be more crisis, one of my worries is there are going to be protesters outside trumps ejacularium tomarrow and than the cops and such will go bug gently caress on them.
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Jun 19, 2020 18:42
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