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disaster pastor
May 1, 2007


Marshal Prolapse posted:

These other two do have that. These two kind of follow the news broadcast format that you’ve seen in a lot of fake news edits for movies or other entertainment.

https://youtu.be/q1m7opOGSmQ

https://youtu.be/knSSUEdLcvg

I came to post exactly these two.

also The War Game doesn't appear to be on YouTube but it's worth a watch if you can find it, it's a predecessor to Threads

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Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

wilderthanmild posted:

I wonder how far along ICBM defense systems are. Missile wise, it's not too different than an anti-satellite missile. However, the difficulty appears to be in guidance and targeting. In 2020 the US successfully intercepted an ICBM with a missile launched from a cruiser, but since it's fairly new I'm guessing the system would be overwhelmed with hundreds of missiles in a full exchange.

A singIe ICBM with MIRV deploys like 10 nukes and counter measures at the same time. you need ten interceptor rockets for every single ICBM. the way to defeat defense systems is to just drop a few extra nukes

Elukka
Feb 18, 2011

For All Mankind

wilderthanmild posted:

I wonder how far along ICBM defense systems are. Missile wise, it's not too different than an anti-satellite missile. However, the difficulty appears to be in guidance and targeting. In 2020 the US successfully intercepted an ICBM with a missile launched from a cruiser, but since it's fairly new I'm guessing the system would be overwhelmed with hundreds of missiles in a full exchange.
Not far along enough to matter for significant arsenals. This is not a bad thing, because no nuclear country is going to accept their arsenal becoming invalid. In the best case, significant defenses would lead to an immediate nuclear arms race. In the worst case, it would lead to nuclear war, because someone thinks they're at a point where they can win it, or someone attempts a pre-emptive strike to prevent sufficient defenses from coming online. In any case, deterrents would be eroded, which would be a seriously destabilizing influence.

Bad Purchase
Jun 17, 2019




we should just install our own bombs under any city with more than 0.5 million population, and distribute detonator buttons to each of our adversaries, and they will do the same for us

this will be much cheaper than the current plan, and we can use the savings to care for the homeless, sick, and hungry. this is my political platform, and i am registering to run right now. please vote for me.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Bad Purchase posted:

we should just install our own bombs under any city with more than 0.5 million population, and distribute detonator buttons to each of our adversaries, and they will do the same for us

this will be much cheaper than the current plan, and we can use the savings to care for the homeless, sick, and hungry. this is my political platform, and i am registering to run right now. please vote for me.

that was a good episode of star trek

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Rutibex posted:

A singIe ICBM with MIRV deploys like 10 nukes and counter measures at the same time. you need ten interceptor rockets for every single ICBM. the way to defeat defense systems is to just drop a few extra nukes

This makes sense. I assumed it would be intercepted before the MIRVs separate, but it looks like that's fairly early in the process so yeah, you'd need to intercept each MIRV. It's worth noting that a significant portion of the Russian ICBMs are not MIRVs, but the majority of the warheads themselves would be coming from MIRVs.

So let's do some math, SM-3 missiles can intercept ICBMs, at least according to that 2020 test. These are launched from cruisers and destroyers equipped with Aegis BMS(which from what I can find is separate but related to the main Aegis system?). As of 2017 there were 5 cruisers(120 cells each) and 28 Destroyers(90 cells each) meaning possible up to 2520 interceptor missiles, though I imagine the majority of those cells would be filled with other missiles like standard ground to air missiles. How many of these missiles are there even? Well in 2018 there were ~265 of them in the hands of the navy. While both of those numbers may likely have gone up, it's not likely to have gone up by an order of magnitude. There is also the GMD, which has been successful and intercepting test missiles as well, but there are only 44 of those.

Obviously, the Russians don't publish an exact number of ICBM delivered warheads they have but you can make a guestimate based on adding up other estimates of numbers of various missiles in service each multiplied by their maximum number of MIRVs. This is kind of hairy because some of the things I got ended up with things like more active sub launched ICBMs than space on subs to launce them, but whatever, it's a guestimate. I won't post the breakdown here, but I end up with ~1800 ICBM delivered warheads.

So, yeah, at least from known and estimated numbers the US could only intercept a portion of the incoming warheads. Something like 15% if every interceptor hit a warhead. At the cost of an SM-3 missile, theoretically you could spend around 1/5th of the total US defense budget on them and you'd probably be able to build enough of them?

Elukka posted:

Not far along enough to matter for significant arsenals. This is not a bad thing, because no nuclear country is going to accept their arsenal becoming invalid. In the best case, significant defenses would lead to an immediate nuclear arms race. In the worst case, it would lead to nuclear war, because someone thinks they're at a point where they can win it, or someone attempts a pre-emptive strike to prevent sufficient defenses from coming online. In any case, deterrents would be eroded, which would be a seriously destabilizing influence.

Yeah, this is a good reason NOT to build thousands of these interceptor missiles. I think the actual intention of these interception systems right now is stuff like North Korea just barely making an ICBM and deciding to launch it at the US, not "winning" a full exchange and shooting down thousands of warheads.

wilderthanmild fucked around with this message at 21:03 on May 3, 2022

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Elukka posted:

This is not a bad thing, because no nuclear country is going to accept their arsenal becoming invalid

I'm pretty sure this comes out of the same rulebook where russia will never use their nukes because we have nukes too, so we can all rest easy

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

Remember where in the opening pages of the 'War in Ukraine' thread I said you were all loving morons for hand wringing about nuclear war and that that you don't have the slightest loving idea what that would look like or why you're so stupidly wrong about literally every aspect of it?




WELL CONGRATULATIONS YOU'VE MADE A THREAD ABOUT IT






you loving morons

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

I'm sure you'd like to be proud of yourselves and keep hand wringing though you idiots.

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

Oh and the mods can probate or ban me wherin I'm wrong about your fuckers being idiots and not just butt-hurt about being called out for it you stupid assholes.

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

"Ahhh a ploof doof a nuclemear mushram cloub Here's something I mash out with my idiot hands like I've never learned English before and haven't seen electric lighting" Hurm um pppffttty



close this loving thread and gas it to embarrass these idiots.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug75diEyiA0

Mister Speaker
May 8, 2007

WE WILL CONTROL
ALL THAT YOU SEE
AND HEAR

Twigand Berries posted:

It is. it opens with him seeing the flashes and begins to fill his bathtub up with water.

I admittedly have not seen the movie - after reading the book, I'm honestly kind of scared to. But this isn't how the book opens; it opens with the Man having a dream of some weird creature in a cave, waking and then continuing on the road with the Boy. The bathtub flashback isn't until a few dozen pages in and does describe the clocks stopping and "a light followed by dull concussions," so nuclear war is a safe bet but I don't think it's ever explicitly stated as such.

Bad Purchase
Jun 17, 2019




thinkin of upgrading the refrigerator here at the ol' homestead. want one that'll be more comfortable to ride out a nuclear blast. i'm thinkin a double-wide... and maybe with a reading light and small desk for my papers, and a compact crochet station for the missus.

not that i'm married, but you know, someday i might find me a lady and i think she might like to crochet.

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

Keep room for two after you use the opt out button, I'll keep 'er warm for you

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

Also I'm sorry I said "your fuckers" the correct term is "YOU fuckers" and I meant it and every single one of you deserved it.

My bad.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Big Beef City posted:

Also I'm sorry I said "your fuckers" the correct term is "YOU fuckers" and I meant it and every single one of you deserved it.

My bad.

You seem upset

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

I watched this a few days ago and is a really well done vid on just about everything having to do with nukes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uIPQBOCJ64

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

KitConstantine posted:

You seem upset

You should read this thread while sucking my nuts.

Big Beef City
Aug 15, 2013

I'm not saying I'm just saying actually ok I am just saying suck my fucing sack, this thread sucks and people need to post better and that includes you, now get on it.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mister Speaker
May 8, 2007

WE WILL CONTROL
ALL THAT YOU SEE
AND HEAR
I've been playing Ghost Recon Breakpoint a lot lately (not sure how I missed this game on release, it is extremely my poo poo) and there's a mission where you discover a nuclear device in an underground bunker. The design of the bomb is surprisingly accurate, with a polyhedral shape constructed of explosive lenses forming the primary implosion trigger. But, failing to disarm the bomb, you have to seal it in the bunker by detonating the primary explosive, which caught me off guard because in the game, the 'primary explosive' is a conventional-looking bomb sitting on a table nearby. I spent too long walking around the explosive lenses looking for a prompt before discovering it on the table like "hey that's not how this works."

Anyway I just thought that was neat.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

I didn't know BBC was short for *Bitch, Bitch, ConstantineProbe*

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

pro starcraft loser posted:

I didn't know BBC was short for *Bitch, Bitch, ConstantineProbe*

I don't mind shitposting but Ideally one would provide some reason for blowing into a thread all aggro BEFORE telling me to suck their nuts.

Just a preference.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Mister Speaker posted:

I've been playing Ghost Recon Breakpoint a lot lately (not sure how I missed this game on release, it is extremely my poo poo) and there's a mission where you discover a nuclear device in an underground bunker. The design of the bomb is surprisingly accurate, with a polyhedral shape constructed of explosive lenses forming the primary implosion trigger. But, failing to disarm the bomb, you have to seal it in the bunker by detonating the primary explosive, which caught me off guard because in the game, the 'primary explosive' is a conventional-looking bomb sitting on a table nearby. I spent too long walking around the explosive lenses looking for a prompt before discovering it on the table like "hey that's not how this works."

Anyway I just thought that was neat.

Wildlands is 100x better

Mister Speaker
May 8, 2007

WE WILL CONTROL
ALL THAT YOU SEE
AND HEAR
I'm honestly not sure what about this thread got BBC all worked up? I recall some of their posts in the Ukraine War thread suggesting they're firmly in the camp of "nuclear war will never, ever happen so shut up about it," which is reasonable. But we have a separate thread for it now, is that not OK?

Also, wait 'til they discover the ClancyChat thread in D&D.

zoux posted:

Wildlands is 100x better

Maybe, it didn't grip me when I bought it though. Probably my mistake for picking up Red Dead Redemption 2 at the same time; that game was the perfect escape. For hours a day I was a steely-eyed vaquero, helping out those in need on the frontier, known only by the name Buckaroo Bigcums.

Mister Speaker fucked around with this message at 22:14 on May 3, 2022

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

KitConstantine posted:

I don't mind shitposting but Ideally one would provide some reason for blowing into a thread all aggro BEFORE telling me to suck their nuts.

Just a preference.

I'm sorry, it was funnier when I thought you probed him in the war thread a bunch and not Seth.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

pro starcraft loser posted:

I'm sorry, it was funnier when I thought you probed him in the war thread a bunch and not Seth.

Oh it's still funny :lol:

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Mister Speaker posted:

I'm honestly not sure what about this thread got BBC all worked up? I recall some of their posts in the Ukraine War thread suggesting they're firmly in the camp of "nuclear war will never, ever happen so shut up about it," which is reasonable.

i donno it sure feels to me like they are building a lot of nukes if they don't plan to use em. it would be a huge waste of money not to have a nuclear war

Mister Speaker
May 8, 2007

WE WILL CONTROL
ALL THAT YOU SEE
AND HEAR
There's actually some solid discussion on the precepts of MAD over in ClancyChat, check it out.

I'm honestly in a similar position as BBC (without the vulgarity), if indeed I was remembering correctly their ideas about the likelihood of nuclear exchange. Except, all of that is predicated on the show being run by rational actors. Some of the rumours circulating about Putin's deteriorating physical and mental health are what give me serious pause.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

KitConstantine posted:

I don't mind shitposting but Ideally one would provide some reason for blowing into a thread all aggro BEFORE telling me to suck their nuts.

Just a preference.

Perhaps it’s nut the reason that truly matters.

zoux posted:

Wildlands is 100x better

This this this. God that was fun to play with fellow goons.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Mister Speaker posted:

There's actually some solid discussion on the precepts of MAD over in ClancyChat, check it out.

I'm honestly in a similar position as BBC (without the vulgarity), if indeed I was remembering correctly their ideas about the likelihood of nuclear exchange. Except, all of that is predicated on the show being run by rational actors. Some of the rumours circulating about Putin's deteriorating physical and mental health are what give me serious pause.

Putin doesnt have a big red "nuke em all!" button. he has to issue orders to generals who issue order to other people etc down the line. if any of these guys decides it's a bad idea then the actual red button in the ICBM bunker doesn't get pressed

Dang It Bhabhi!
May 27, 2004



ASK ME ABOUT
BEING
ESCULA GRIND'S
#1 SIMP

KitConstantine posted:

I don't mind shitposting but Ideally one would provide some reason for blowing into a thread all aggro BEFORE telling me to suck their nuts.

Just a preference.

That’s BBC’s gimmick tho.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Alright palette cleanser time. Who wants a four hour documentary produced by Sandia National Labs on US Nuclear Policy over the years?

https://youtu.be/Qz0Dg5gIjhw
https://youtu.be/cA_8I5hjNO0

Here is a 1:45 on Deterrence
https://youtu.be/tQBLpJFi6f0

Also here is a B61-12 test with an F-35

https://youtu.be/Q3GYfY9ERWo

Fuckstick
Nov 30, 2000

I’m looking forward to participating in this thread later..not so much participating in the war, but definitely this thread. OP mentioned the cast of By Dawn’s Early Light, and I just wanted to mention that Powers Boothe saying “Planet of the Apes, baby!” is probably the funniest poo poo I’ve ever seen in a drama, not to mention the most 80’s thing ever said! My coworkers and I use that line on occasion complete with the Powers Boothe voice.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Fuckstick posted:

I’m looking forward to participating in this thread later..not so much participating in the war, but definitely this thread. OP mentioned the cast of By Dawn’s Early Light, and I just wanted to mention that Powers Boothe saying “Planet of the Apes, baby!” is probably the funniest poo poo I’ve ever seen in a drama, not to mention the most 80’s thing ever said! My coworkers and I use that line on occasion complete with the Powers Boothe voice.

You’ve never seen his Jim Jones with LeVar Burton?

I can only find the full movie, but he’s scream about and at LeVar for “being a queer.” It’s pretty wild and also it’s a loaded cast too. There is a trailer before it.

https://youtu.be/T1S1z0ESL_s

Also early cast meetup

https://youtu.be/DE1P_ZYvmU4

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

I find this of no use, as I decided long ago I will not die

akma
Jan 30, 2016

I simply lack the motivation to write anything here.
Been a long time since I had to create nuclear fallout prediction map overlays, look up the transmission factors or whatever it was for a particular vehicle and calculate how many rads the crew would absorb while doing a radiological recon/survey in the hot zone, calculate the point they had to turn around so their cancer wouldnt kick in until after they were discharged so the VA could tell them it isn't service related. Pretty much forgot how to do all that poo poo. I guess I'll just wing it.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Nukes are back on the menu boys!

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day
Nuke these nuts

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BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

Yaldabaoth posted:

They say the only winning move is not to play but humans are really good at coming up with technicalities for why they actually won when they really lost.

If WOPR had known what SKYNET knew (the Internet is terrible and AIs would be forced to make lovely art for zoomers) it would have launched those nukes and done us a favor.

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