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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:See, I thought they had been a bit anti-Trump six months ago or whenever, but that Mormons had fallen pretty much into lockstep due to something. Republican tribalism? I have been set straight. There's a much higher support of Johnson and especially McMullin in Utah than in other red states.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:23
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Young Freud posted:Trump paid for Bill's accusers to attend the debate. He really went all in with that, and it got swatted down so quickly
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Oct 10, 2016 15:23
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Night10194 posted:His complete inability to actually apologize for anything means he never stops bleeding once he gets a real gash like this. Yeah, his "but ISIS is worse!" excuse-making was probably his second-worst moment of the night. (After "I will jail my political opponent", of course.)
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Oct 10, 2016 15:23
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:See, I thought they had been a bit anti-Trump six months ago or whenever, but that Mormons had fallen pretty much into lockstep due to something. Republican tribalism? I have been set straight. I think all the lovely Mormons stay in Utah, because all the ones I know who live in the PNW or Montana or such think Trump is a massive piece of poo poo and are in the tank for Hilldawg.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:24
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Yvonmukluk posted:It's hilarious Trump tried to turn the debate into an episode of Jerry Springer, who is another celebrity more fit for the Ocal Office than Trump. Actually that would be a fun game - name a celebrity who'd make a better POTUS candidate than the one the GOP nominated. Sadly Jerry Springer, while a middling politician of some small ability and popularity, can never be President on account of his crippling Englishness. No immigrants in the big chair. Of course he made it as far as Mayor and Trump will only make it as far as failure, so Jerry still wins that one.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:24
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Mister Adequate posted:I think all the lovely Mormons stay in Utah, because all the ones I know who live in the PNW or Montana or such think Trump is a massive piece of poo poo and are in the tank for Hilldawg. Utah Mormons are fleeing him in droves.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:25
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canepazzo posted:So, Ivanka "liked" this tweet: I'm terrified that this isn't her saying "My father is despicable, and I hate him," but rather, "Yup, it's okay that my father did that."
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Oct 10, 2016 15:26
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iospace posted:As said already, 538, Upshot, and PEC all use polls. If you want news based predictions, PredictWise is what you want. Yes I know that. What I'm wondering is what polls they use to update anything. They just updated and it actually even dipped slightly. (Arizonas is only on 48.6% now) What polls are they using which would lower the chance? The LA times one is literally the only one I can think of.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:26
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cant cook creole bream posted:Yes I know that. What I'm wondering is what polls they use to update anything. They just updated and it actually even dipped slightly. (Arizonas is only on 48.6% now) What polls are they using which would lower the chance? The LA times one is literally the only one I can think of. It's the LA Times and the 'only' +2 Morning Consult poll from October 5th. 538 uses national polls to come up with a trendline for the various states that don't get much polling. E: Also it just jumped up due to the Rasmussen poll and Surveymonkey.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:27
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Night10194 posted:It's the LA Times and the 'only' +2 Morning Consult poll from October 5th. 538 uses national polls to come up with a trendline for the various states that don't get much polling. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7af2e664bfad4690bfb4a994b0f0836c.pdf Arizona was polled by Emerson (not a great firm)
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Oct 10, 2016 15:29
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I haven't really had any direct disagreements with Mormon Jesus since SCOTUS made gay marriage real.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:30
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cant cook creole bream posted:Yes I know that. What I'm wondering is what polls they use to update anything. They just updated and it actually even dipped slightly. (Arizonas is only on 48.6% now) What polls are they using which would lower the chance? The LA times one is literally the only one I can think of. You actually want https://electionbettingodds.com/ It takes the 2 largest betting markets. It will react quicker than anything to news and events.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:30
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canepazzo posted:So, Ivanka "liked" this tweet: I'm guessing (hoping?) that this is more a cry for help than an "awesome, my dad thinks I'm a piece of meat!"
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Oct 10, 2016 15:31
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lozzle posted:It actually is though. It's just also a religion when it comes to certain aspects. (the "invisible hand", the Austrian school in its entirety, etc.) It's a social science, like psychology or sociology  the Austrians would be the phrenologists in this example.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:32
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Des Moines Register has Trump +4 in Iowa. The sample is from 10/3 to 10/6 though. So, all of it before the tape and debate. Very disappointed in you Iowa.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:33
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lozzle posted:There is some merit to this thinking but at the same time John Kerry got sunk by swiftboaters precisely because he felt no need to address it. Kerry lost because he's an uncharismatic golem that was running entirely on his opponent's faults. Like Mittens. He was lucky to get as close as he did.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:33
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Waiting for Bernie or Busters to jump into the Trump camp now that he's promised to prosecute Hillary.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:33
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If it doesn't have testable hypothesis it ain't a science you nerds.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:34
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KEN BONE WEIGHS IN https://twitter.com/hunterschwarz/status/785488481988534276
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Oct 10, 2016 15:35
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https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/785488561990668288 Ken  omg i didn't see the tweets in the post above
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Oct 10, 2016 15:35
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...I think Ken Bone's fuckin' dumb
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Oct 10, 2016 15:36
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Between this and the earlier anecdote about why he was in the sweater, Ken Bone really is the perfect representation of the average undecided voter.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:37
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Spiritus Nox posted:...I think Ken Bone's fuckin' dumb I thought his sweater was very smart.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:37
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trash person posted:KEN BONE WEIGHS IN Hoooooow can anyone still be undecided between those two? This man even met and spoke with both of them, a luxury few voters have, and can't make a loving decision.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:37
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Flip Yr Wig posted:Waiting for Bernie or Busters to jump into the Trump camp now that he's promised to prosecute Hillary. I'm convinced that literally no Bernie or Buster will be bothered to vote.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:37
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In Game Change III: Change Harder, the role of Ken Bone will be played by Kevin James.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:38
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Spiritus Nox posted:...I think Ken Bone's fuckin' dumb An undecided voter after pussy grabbing.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:38
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https://twitter.com/costareports/status/785486969597939712 Lol the cowards of Republican Party
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Oct 10, 2016 15:38
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Ken was one of the people she went out of her way to personalize her response for, IIRC.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:39
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I think Hillary should bring Bernie to the next debate and the first time Trump brings up that Bernie got screwed she should just turn, ask Bernie who he will be voting for, have Bernie stand up and frantically point at Hillary, then stand back as Trump takes the bait and attacks Bernie.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:In Game Change III: Change Harder, the role of Ken Bone will be played by Kevin James. Game Change III is legitimately my most anticipated work of anything, well, ever.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:39
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Ken Bone is very smart about one thing and one thing only: his '74 Mazda RX4 http://www.speedhunters.com/2016/01/mazda-rx4-the-beauty-of-rotary/
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Oct 10, 2016 15:39
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trash person posted:KEN BONE WEIGHS IN His question was definitely one of Hillary's better answers. I don't know if he, as Hillary assumed, is heavily involved with or particularly knowledgeable about the energy industry, but Trump's answer was one of his worst of the night to anyone with even a cursory understanding of the issue.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:39
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Mr Hootington posted:https://twitter.com/costareports/status/785486969597939712 Nice avatar!
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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Mormons have been alienated by Trump ever since he shat on the Syrian refugees and proposed the Muslim ban, since they're mostly decent people who relate to religious persecution. Whether that translates into Utah turning blue/yellow/muffin we'll have to wait and see. I hope Mormons just go the way of Ken Jennings and just become full on Democrats. Especially now that THE GAYS in no longer an issue.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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Mr Hootington posted:https://twitter.com/costareports/status/785486969597939712 who the hell did you piss off for that red text?
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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Mr Hootington posted:https://twitter.com/costareports/status/785486969597939712 Let them tie that albatross around their necks even tighter. Their opportunistic cowardice will end them when he completely flames out.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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new NBC/WSJ poll coming out in an hour
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:That isn't what you said until you edited it. Her running a bad campaign doesn't really have anything to do with my personal feelings about her. I still want her to win and bring alot of down ballot dems with her.
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Oct 10, 2016 15:40
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:See, I thought they had been a bit anti-Trump six months ago or whenever, but that Mormons had fallen pretty much into lockstep due to something. Republican tribalism? I have been set straight. The Deseret News, owned by the Mormon Church, called for Trump's resignation over the weekend. This is the first time in 80 years they have effectively endorsed a candidate in a Presidential Election. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664336/In-our-opinion-Donald-Trump-should-resign-his-candidacy.html?pg=all
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