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If Carson does start bombing, then Trump YES for hitting the November number looks cheap.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:40
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pathetic little tramp posted:The 22%+ market already fell apart, I had bought NOs around 25 and now I'm wondering if I should sell off at 65, which I'm sure is the ceiling for now, or stick to my guns and wait until the end of the month when it's up at 99. Sell, the market has probably overreacted and you can lock in solid profits.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:40
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I just sold my Carson NO into this spike. I only wish I had more than 25 of them. I would, or sell half of them if you have a lot. Dammit, trying to do the same thing.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:42
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Zeta Taskforce posted:If Carson does start bombing, then Trump YES for hitting the November number looks cheap. If Carson actually does crash his people probably split between Huck, Cruz, and Rubio. He's the un-Trump of the moment.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:51
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eh Carson certainly had a bit of a peak today and will settle out, but now that their is blood in the water hes toast IMO.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:52
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I put in a large buy order for Carson 22% NO at .60. It'll probably never drop down there but the market has been weird. Carson's decline begins now, but how fast it'll happen is anyone's guess.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:01
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Yeah I just bought Carson YES at 34 with the order to sell at 36, we'll probably see that happen if this doesn't become MEGASCANDAL 2000. edit: This is after I sold my Carson NO profit.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:03
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I'm grabbing a bunch of cheap carson first to drop out shares in the hopes that this spirals completely out of control. I just don't see how a book tour candidate lasts very long under pressure and I can't see anyone else dropping out while Carson faces a shitstorm. There is going to be a massive hole at the top that other candidates will be looking to fill in anticipation.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:14
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holy moley
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Nov 6, 2015 19:14
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The Iowa caucus market has gone unhinged as well, lots of overreactions. Edit: Beaten, but in on Cruz No re: above.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:15
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Gyges posted:If Carson actually does crash his people probably split between Huck, Cruz, and Rubio. He's the un-Trump of the moment. If Carson crashes hard I think Cruz benefits the most, less so Huck because he is a has been. To disclose, I am heavily invested in Cruz hitting his number, about 20% of my portfolio is in there, my current heaviest bet. But there will be a lot of spoils to go around that everyone will benefit short term. Just for fun, I bought some Carly dropping out next at 2. I know she won't, but it's better than spending $5 on a lottery ticket and its fun to see that she was just a flash in the pan.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:18
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nachos posted:I'm grabbing a bunch of cheap carson first to drop out shares in the hopes that this spirals completely out of control. I just don't see how a book tour candidate lasts very long under pressure and I can't see anyone else dropping out while Carson faces a shitstorm. There is going to be a massive hole at the top that other candidates will be looking to fill in anticipation. It's because he's an insane book tour candidate that he'll weather this. He might not be leading the pack anymore, but it's going to take a while for him to drop down to the kiddie table. His entire campaign is being the soft spoken black guy who says what the people want to hear. He can't win the primary, but he'll certainly be making enough wing nut money to stick around for a while longer. Same as Huck. If Rubio gets his legs taken out, Cruz's dark machinations will be all but complete. It's loving insane that he's the 2nd most likely to win this poo poo now.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:29
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I'm not willing to call Cruz a genius yet. I'm not. I can't.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:38
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This Carson counter-swing is incredible.
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Nov 6, 2015 20:37
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Yep, glad I listened to the thread and sold at 65 (thought I wish I'd held out to 40 on the other side).
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Nov 6, 2015 20:47
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Why is there a "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" market? Seems pretty redundant with the Hillary for President market.
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Nov 6, 2015 20:49
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HisMajestyBOB posted:Why is there a "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" market? Seems pretty redundant with the Hillary for President market. What about when Hillary reveals herself to be a man? This market hedges against that.
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Nov 6, 2015 20:52
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I think the woman on the 10 dollar bill market is some kind of money laundering scheme. There's no news about it every, but it has crazy swings from Tubman to Roosevelt pretty often.
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Nov 6, 2015 20:55
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HisMajestyBOB posted:Why is there a "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" market? Seems pretty redundant with the Hillary for President market. The "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" is logically valued at "Will Fiorina be elected?" plus "Will Hillary Clinton be elected?" (so 0+100%)
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Nov 6, 2015 20:55
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Nintendo Kid posted:The "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" is logically valued at "Will Fiorina be elected?" plus "Will Hillary Clinton be elected?" (so 0+100%) Yet its PredictItValue is "PredictItValue of Hillary being elected" * 0.95, makes you think. Or maybe it's ("PredictItValue of Hilary being elected" + "PredictItValue of Carly being elected") * 0.9, I'm not sure.
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Nov 6, 2015 21:02
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HisMajestyBOB posted:Why is there a "Will a woman be elected President in 2016?" market? Seems pretty redundant with the Hillary for President market. It started back in May when Elizabeth Warren was totally running and Palin was still thinking about the joys of the clown car. Which would have made it a question of if Hillary, Warren, Fiorina, or Palin would win. I think there were a couple other women's names kicking around then too. Alternatively Predictit has some Grade A gossip on Jeb and the true nature of his exclamation mark, or were really hoping for a Caitlin Jenner run to really gently caress with the market.
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Nov 6, 2015 21:20
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EngineerSean posted:Yet its PredictItValue is "PredictItValue of Hillary being elected" * 0.95, makes you think. That's just the likelihood of a gender reassignmrnt in the meantime, of course.
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Nov 6, 2015 22:29
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Vox Nihili posted:That's just the likelihood of a gender reassignmrnt in the meantime, of course. thats how I read it too
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Nov 6, 2015 22:34
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Time to buy in on Louisiana! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZQVCFVVVE0
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Nov 6, 2015 23:07
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Mods pls make this gif the background of Election Erection
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Nov 6, 2015 23:08
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Aliquid posted:Time to buy in on Louisiana! I have 50 shares on Republican NO, but forgive me, I know next to nothing other than tomato's co-worker from LA said Edwards was a sure thing. Is this new information like a bombshell just went off, or is this something that has been kicking around forever?
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Nov 6, 2015 23:41
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It's been kicking around for a while, but no one's ever been able to figure out that he missed a vote (a vote to honour veterans!) to answer a call from a prostitute yet.
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Nov 6, 2015 23:46
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Big Ben just had a really bad press conference so it might be a good opportunity to take advantage of some swings in various markets against him
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Nov 7, 2015 01:08
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nachos posted:Big Ben just had a really bad press conference so it might be a good opportunity to take advantage of some swings in various markets against him I violated the sacred rule of do not play polls by buying some NO for him to be above the 22% threshold. His peak is clearly here, or at least, will have peaked by the end of the month and he should decline as Trump, Rubio, and others pick up the rest. I know people say the base won't care about the absurd poo poo that he's saying, and if it were him running against a democrat, you're right. But this sorts of bizarre revelations and inability to handle media scrutiny do hurt his ability to compete with other Republicans, and enough people will abandon him for a new flavor of the month (tm).
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Nov 7, 2015 05:04
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JosefStalinator posted:I violated the sacred rule of do not play polls by buying some NO for him to be above the 22% threshold. His peak is clearly here, or at least, will have peaked by the end of the month and he should decline as Trump, Rubio, and others pick up the rest. Go ahead and play polls. There is right way and a wrong way. The wrong way is to make big bets near the close that could go either way depending on what poll hits or what old poll gets dropped. But at this point out, with this much time there is skill involved. It isn't pure chance. But even then don't go big. Last month I made a decent amount of money betting that Carly had peaked. I lost some thinking that Carson wouldn't win the CNBC debate. What I try to do is to spread it around wide, don't make any big bets, don't buy all at once, even if you really like something, and don't be afraid to sell at a loss in case you realize at some later point you were wrong. It's better to miss out on upside if it means you limit your exposure to downside. Carson at 22 will probably resolve as a NO. I did well playing with it today, but I think it's fairly priced right now. I'm out of it entirely as of now and won't get back in until one side becomes cheaper for a dumb reason, or until one side becomes mathematically probable.
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Nov 7, 2015 05:52
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I have 50 shares on Republican NO, but forgive me, I know next to nothing other than tomato's co-worker from LA said Edwards was a sure thing. Is this new information like a bombshell just went off, or is this something that has been kicking around forever? I ended up converting my LA = Dem approach into a pure arbitrage play. There's only two candidates in this final round, but Dem No + Rep No only adds up to .94-.97, depending on the hour. Yes, please, I'll gladly buy dollars in two weeks for 95 cents today. However, the Democrat win is still a good play. Just buy whatever is cheaper between D Yes and R No.
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Nov 7, 2015 22:24
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Tomato Burger posted:I ended up converting my LA = Dem approach into a pure arbitrage play. There's only two candidates in this final round, but Dem No + Rep No only adds up to .94-.97, depending on the hour. Yes, please, I'll gladly buy dollars in two weeks for 95 cents today. I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Keep in mind that they take a 10% cut on winnings. You don't really feel it so much when you do a normal bet, you either win or lose, but especially on arbitrage plays it really matters. If you make 2 opposite bets you are locking in a 100% loss and a 10% loss. On today's numbers, say you got the Dem NO and Republican NO for 25 and 70 and buy 100 shared of each and Edwards wins. Your first bet loses $25. Your other bet wins $30. But you only see $27 of that. You are up by $2. If it goes the other way, your first bet wins $75. You will see $67.5 of it. Your second bet loses $70. After fees, you are actually down $2.50. Lesson being arbitrage is fine, but unless you can cover all options for less than 90 cents, it's hardly worth it.
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Nov 8, 2015 03:33
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Hmm, that is an interesting point that I hadn't considered. When I was structuring the arbitrage scenario I was thinking of what factors I may have missed. I just lopped 10% off of my calculated outcome, but neglected to consider the "winning .75 per share" vs. "winning .25 per share" concept, as there is no offsetting negative fee for losses. Time to run the numbers again, thanks for the heads up!
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Nov 8, 2015 04:44
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Hmmm... you're very right. My initial calculations were that I would clear $11 x 0.9 = $9.90. With a $208 investment, I had figured for a locked in 4.7% gain. Running the numbers now I'm up $4.57 with a D win or down $5.57 with a D loss. Definitely not arbitrage anymore. Assuming a 75% chance of a D win (based on current market prices and my initial research) then I have an expected value of $2.03 = 1% return. And thus ends my foray into PredictIt arbitrage. Thanks for setting me straight.
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Nov 8, 2015 04:53
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I really need to get around to uploading my arbitrage spreadsheets to this thread. Always assume the worst case scenario if you're arbitrating.
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Nov 8, 2015 06:39
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My GOP NOM NO portfolio is 50% Rubio and 40% Cruz and I feel super lovely about it.
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Nov 8, 2015 07:18
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Rubio Yes is the only thing keeping my portfolio in the black ATM Other than Louisiana going D
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Nov 8, 2015 07:22
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Aliquid posted:My GOP NOM NO portfolio is 50% Rubio and 40% Cruz and I feel super lovely about it. I felt lovely about BIDEN RUN NO but I'm not playing what my heart wants on these.
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Nov 8, 2015 07:23
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Patriots over prostitutes
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Nov 8, 2015 07:24
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User Error posted:Patriots over prostitutes imma make money on that poo poo, at least
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Nov 8, 2015 07:38
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