|
pathetic little tramp posted:Ah poo poo I forgot to cancel my sell order and sold my Starbucks question shares at 45 a piece! Now I don't have any skin in the game other than "Kasich will be ignored" Kasich is gettin' pretty wordy lol
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 03:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 22:37 |
|
|
Necc0 posted:Kasich is gettin' pretty wordy lol Haha yep, he's demanding a whole lot of extra talking time and Jeb ain't stoppin him. Maybe I should sell just before it closes and lose 6 cents a share. edit: I thought they closed the talks the most market at the beginning of the debate, poo poo if I'd know it stays open I'd have made some flips. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 03:44 on Nov 11, 2015 |
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 03:20
|
|
|
Yeah Kasich got shut down and Starbucks is nowhere to be seen.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 04:19
|
|
|
Linking has made YES way cheaper. If you add up all the yesses for the FNB debate for who gets the most talking time, it only adds up to 75
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 04:34
|
|
|
Kasich got a lot of time there. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 04:55
|
|
|
Some online polls are starting to trickle in showing Carson down a bit, but he's been pretty quiet at the debate tonight. I'm feeling a bit better about my Carson.NO poll bets.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:17
|
|
|
Wanamingo posted:I really want to dump all my shares and put the money into buying yes on the Starbucks question, but I'm not going to because I know it's a dumb idea. Hooray, I managed to learn my lesson after the last time I dumped all my money into one market.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:27
|
|
|
Wooo! 11/10/2015 11:26 PM Closed FBNDEBATE.STARBUCKS 329 $1.00 $153.10 ($15.310) $313.690
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:37
|
|
|
hell yeah cruz Cruz: 13:35 Kasich: 11:51 Trump: 11:19 FIorina: 11:00 Rubio: 10:20 Paul: 10:06 Bush: 9:50 Carson: 9:22 Given they were aiming to give everyone equal time, I had thought the strategy up front was just to buy everyone priced less than $0.125... Zeta Taskforce posted:Linking has made YES way cheaper. If you add up all the yesses for the FNB debate for who gets the most talking time, it only adds up to 75 But wow, this was the strategy edit: according to Politico: http://www.politico.com/blogs/live-from-milwaukee/2015/11/who-got-the-most-time-215732
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:37
|
|
|
Whooooops. Shouldn't have bet on StarbucksYes.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:48
|
|
|
VladimirLeninpest posted:Whooooops. Shouldn't have bet on StarbucksYes. For what it's worth, I was surprised too. It would've been a stupid as hell question, and it's not often you lose money by underestimating the political discourse in this country.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 05:51
|
|
|
I bought Starbucks Yes and flipped it for 10 bucks. And then that fucker Ted Cruz went and loving talked the most. Fuuuuuuck, that all but zeroed out my bet.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 06:50
|
|
|
A huge part of me is relieved Kasich didn't speak the most. That was a real nail biter. I way overpaid for my 45 NO shares. But another huge part of me is kicking myself for selling the 100 Cruz at 6. I bought 110 of them at 4 and he didn't talk a lot in the first half, but gently caress. I didn't see that one coming.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 07:13
|
|
|
3 minutes 24 seconds of speaking time in one segment. That's insane nowadays. I'm all tied up in Rubio NO and Cruz NO for the nomination and so I can't daytrade but drat if I'm not nervous about my long-term position now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 07:24
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:3 minutes 24 seconds of speaking time in one segment. That's insane nowadays. I've been tempted to buy Rubio No for the nom because his Yes is clearly overweight, but I'm afraid it's just going to keep going up for the foreseeable future.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 18:45
|
|
|
Overnight returns show debate viewership of just 13.5 million. Good thing I sold all of my 15m+ shares!
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 19:39
|
|
|
I've got entirely too much money wrapped up in LAGOV, but news keeps looking better and better for JBE, and prices keep staying the same... http://winwithjmc.com/archives/6863 quote:(1) Consistently higher turnout – For each of the three days of early voting, it has been consistently been higher than it was in the primary. Cumulatively, you’re talking about a 35% increase in early voting turnout (119,381 versus 88,184 in the primary); It seems like we should assume 100% of "independents" or "undecideds" will vote R, given what's happened in other recent state-level elections with high Independent numbers. But as long as JBE holds 48-50+% in the polls (which, to be clear, is not what the quote says, but has been true in all of the recent polls), this looks like a close but near certain win. High D and black voter turnout is only helping. Setting myself up for a big disappointment if JBE's support breaks the other way, but it seems like he performed well in yesterday's debate
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 21:50
|
|
|
thethreeman posted:I've got entirely too much money wrapped up in LAGOV, but news keeps looking better and better for JBE, and prices keep staying the same. I'm in way too much on JBE myself, but I've been mostly able to unwind my ill-fated arbitrage position from a few days ago, and at a small gain. If JBE yes (R No, technically) slides up into the 75-80 range, then I'll close out some more of my position and be sitting pretty. I'll still hold some R No all the way to the end, but I'd rather it be like 1/4 of my current position.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2015 22:20
|
|
|
i hav 25 39c r yes because im dumb 
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 05:46
|
|
|
I don't use PredictIt, but I'd bet that O'Malley gets the biggest post debate bump in the new markets for the Democratic debate, sheerly by the fact that he has way more room to bite into the "don't know/undecided" folks, while Hillary and Sanders aren't likely to move much.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 18:20
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:I don't use PredictIt, but I'd bet that O'Malley gets the biggest post debate bump in the new markets for the Democratic debate, sheerly by the fact that he has way more room to bite into the "don't know/undecided" folks, while Hillary and Sanders aren't likely to move much. Would be nice if he hadn't just posted a pre-debate 5. But if one assumes that this is his "new normal" then it might be a good bet. It's a complete crapshoot, really.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 18:26
|
|
|
Yeah outliers really make any market that relies on polls a good deal more painful.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 18:36
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:I don't use PredictIt, but I'd bet that O'Malley gets the biggest post debate bump in the new markets for the Democratic debate, sheerly by the fact that he has way more room to bite into the "don't know/undecided" folks, while Hillary and Sanders aren't likely to move much. you have tons of posts in this thread talking about your bets
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 18:59
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:you have tons of posts in this thread talking about your bets He doesn't use PredictIt, he uses MediaPredict
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 19:12
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:you have tons of posts in this thread talking about your bets I use different sites.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 19:14
|
|
|
The Democratic race is so stable compared to the Republicans that is is actually more of a gamble. With the Republicans, its a better than even bet that either Trump or Carson will lose, Carson has a 29 poll that is an outlier that will likely drop. But the Dems, one weird poll will throw it off. Case in point, Chafee losing, which should have been mathematically impossible. Speaking of polls, Edwards leads Vitter by 22 points. I'm in way too heavy so I will probably sell some depending on how big of the bump, but this looks good. http://www.wwltv.com/story/news/2015/11/12/uno-poll-edwards-leads-vitter-in-runoff-by-22-points/75650382/
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 19:16
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:I use different sites. Milk Malk posted:He doesn't use PredictIt, he uses MediaPredict my bad. in other news, I'm buying Rubio NO at .49, which has to be inflated.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 19:52
|
|
|
 This market is hilariously imbalanced, too. The top 
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 20:17
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:my bad. in other news, I'm buying Rubio NO at .49, which has to be inflated. If they're pushing linked contracts to existing markets already then the primary markets are not far off. Good idea. edit: The just sent out an email quote:Dear Trader, IT BEGINS 
Necc0 has issued a correction as of 20:34 on Nov 12, 2015 |
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 20:27
|
|
|
I too am betting for Sperm Count Out
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 21:10
|
|
|
I'd play Supreme Court Death Pool, but there's no end date so you're waiting until one of them actually quits, which is even less predictable than the who'll drop out next markets. Still, probably a good idea to get in on them before they're linked or the masses up the prices. Then sell.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 21:54
|
|
|
I just bought a ton of NOs for cheap in the supreme court market
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 22:59
|
|
|
Just remember The Notorious RBG is almost certainly next via retirement.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2015 23:02
|
|
|
Oh really? *Concocts potion, puts voodoo doll of Justice Breyer next to gavel made of bones*
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 02:47
|
|
|
If we're using dark magics to encourage justices to vacate their seat, please invoke the spirits responsibly so that the court flips to a more reasonable tone.
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 03:55
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Just remember The Notorious RBG is almost certainly next via retirement. You should be more optimistic! Theoretically Scalia could have a heart attack tomorrow!
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 03:56
|
|
|
Check out the recent exchange between Stupak and a "bleck" character: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/438/Will-Marco-Rubio-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination#data
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 06:37
|
|
|
Wow, Rubio No at 48c.
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 08:26
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:Check out the recent exchange between Stupak and a "bleck" character: I should start choosing which markets to bet on by how dumb the comments are. Ideological flame wars = there's money to be made.
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 08:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 22:37 |
|
|
To me, the Rubio NO's are way too optimistic. He's the likeliest candidate, sure, but 50%? Nah I have like $2k in various Republican Nom No's at this point 
|
|
#
?
Nov 13, 2015 15:53
|
|