|
Feelings about Cruz YES in Iowa? Currently at 55 and I feel if he has a place for his soapbox it's in their caucus, but with him showing strong against Trump there I'm personally not sure where this is gonna go. We haven't seen them lock horns yet. edited for too many "theres" StevePerry has issued a correction as of 20:14 on Nov 24, 2015 |
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 20:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 10:38 |
|
|
He's at 9/5 on Betfair (obviously a much thinner market but whatever) just to give you an idea of how far off Predictit is right now. His problem is there are two months left. There's too much time for them to abandon him and rush to some other flavor of the month. It's possible and his price will definitely spike if you're day trading, but I wouldn't buy and hold. Speaking of thin markets, how much action is there on Predictit at the moment in the major markets and what's the max deposit amount? They're blocking my location even though I'm a US citizen etc etc.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 20:42
|
|
|
Adar posted:Speaking of thin markets, how much action is there on Predictit at the moment in the major markets and what's the max deposit amount? They're blocking my location even though I'm a US citizen etc etc. Each market has a data section that will show you both today's volume and total market volume. Max deposit is $850 per market. ninja edit: Well I don't know what the max DEPOSIT is but you can't put more than $850 in any one market. ninja x2 edit: PredictIt also isn't allowed in Washington or Nevada
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 20:52
|
|
|
Adar posted:His problem is there are two months left. There's too much time for them to abandon him and rush to some other flavor of the month. It's possible and his price will definitely spike if you're day trading, but I wouldn't buy and hold.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 21:00
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:Each market has a data section that will show you both today's volume and total market volume. Max deposit is $850 per market. Definitely ironic for Nevada.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 21:03
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Definitely ironic for Nevada. Brick and mortar casinos have a monied interest in making sure all gambling in the state goes through them.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:29
|
|
|
More new markets: *It's almost certain that Assad will still be in power by next year. *Gov shutdown is harder to call
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:07
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:ninja x2 edit: PredictIt also isn't allowed in Washington or Nevada I'm in Washington and I'm using it just fine.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:14
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:*It's almost certain that Assad will still be in power by next year. Watch half of RSF lose their shirts after Assad has a heart attack on New Year's Eve.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:16
|
|
|
Ah I misread the Assad market. It has him remaining in power through 2016. That's much less certain.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:47
|
|
|
So how does buying shares work when a market is first created work? I put in a buy offer on the rep dropout market and it said there were no shares available.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 01:30
|
|
|
Flippycunt posted:So how does buying shares work when a market is first created work? I put in a buy offer on the rep dropout market and it said there were no shares available. By submitting an offer it will automatically create a counter-offer that someone else can purchase. So for example if there aren't any yes shares available you can create an offer to buy them at $.40. When you do this it will create shares of no which someone else can purchase for $.60. If someone buys one of those shares then both accounts on both sides are charged for the shares, creating the full $1 contract. When a market first opens people will constantly edge up other people's offers until both sides meet each other and they start selling.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 01:38
|
|
|
Flippycunt posted:So how does buying shares work when a market is first created work? I put in a buy offer on the rep dropout market and it said there were no shares available. When a market is open someone puts in a buy offer on yes or no and a corresponding offer goes up on the other side. So if I put up an offer to buy Yes at 45, what gets put up by Predictit is a Yes Sell at 45 and a No Buy at 55. The offer then sits there until someone decides to either sell enough of their Yes shares at 45 to fill your request or someone decides to purchase enough No at 55 to equal your request of Yes at 45.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 01:40
|
|
|
Gyges posted:When a market is open someone puts in a buy offer on yes or no and a corresponding offer goes up on the other side. So if I put up an offer to buy Yes at 45, what gets put up by Predictit is a Yes Sell at 45 and a No Buy at 55. The offer then sits there until someone decides to either sell enough of their Yes shares at 45 to fill your request or someone decides to purchase enough No at 55 to equal your request of Yes at 45. Note that if you're not the closest to the Latest Price, you can easily sit there waiting weeks or months before this actually happens. That's what you see when you go to the "Prices" page; a big list of all of these hopeful offers waiting for the other side of the trade to come along.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 02:27
|
|
|
Thanks, that makes sense.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 03:52
|
|
|
Hillary No shares in the Dem Nominee market are down in the mid to low teens right now, how likely do you guys think they are to rebound a few cents?
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 06:20
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Hillary No shares in the Dem Nominee market are down in the mid to low teens right now, how likely do you guys think they are to rebound a few cents? Its a coin flip but even at 14 cents, honestly it is overpriced. The only thing propping it up is fanatical Bernie supporters. You might eek out a few cents on a short term fluctuation, but if it goes down a few cents, then you have lost 1/4 of your value. Unless she dies in the next 6 months the long term value of this contract will be zero. I see it as highly speculative with limited upside.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 06:45
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:Its a coin flip but even at 14 cents, honestly it is overpriced. The only thing propping it up is fanatical Bernie supporters. You might eek out a few cents on a short term fluctuation, but if it goes down a few cents, then you have lost 1/4 of your value. Unless she dies in the next 6 months the long term value of this contract will be zero. I see it as highly speculative with limited upside. On the other hand there are a lot of things that she could say or do that could provide a temporary spike. I bought at 16 right before the linked contracts took effect because I thought it'd take a turn upward but I definitely don't plan to cancel my sell order at 20.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 07:20
|
|
|
Rnom is getting linked December 1. I recently bought a bunch of nos, I'm curious to see how things shake out. I haven't really played in any linked markets yet.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 17:38
|
|
|
Oh great, I just got back in on Romney YES  Cruz has been climbing all week to the detriment of Rubio. I'm invested in NO on Both so it's a wash but it's still interesting.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 17:43
|
|
|
User Error posted:Rnom is getting linked December 1. I recently bought a bunch of nos, I'm curious to see how things shake out. I haven't really played in any linked markets yet. Cool, I have $2200 in the RNOM market, all NOs. I have NOs for almost everyone except for Cruz, who I like (the odds of being the candidate, not as a candidate, gross, gross). The prices are still good IMO for guys like Christie, Kasich, and Jeb!. Christie/Kasich NO for 91 implies 9% chance for the nomination. Jeb! implies 15%. Those are all waaay too high. Also, the Presidential market looks like it's linking Dec 3. The prices there seem out of whack too. You can buy Hilary for the same price as just buying Democrat to win in the Which Party Will Win market. With Republians at 40% to win, it doesn't make sense for someone like Trump to 16% to win. That'd imply there's a 40% chance he wins the Nom.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 17:54
|
|
|
User Error posted:Rnom is getting linked December 1. I recently bought a bunch of nos, I'm curious to see how things shake out. I haven't really played in any linked markets yet. I just got cashed out of the Reb FBN debate and had $200 burning a hole in my pocket. I just dumped it all on RNom No's. The value of every NO seems to be falling but they are still all overpriced, and I should get virtually all my available funds back in a week.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 18:35
|
|
|
For some reason the site won't accept any more purchase requests for Warren No on the Dem Nom market for me. It keeps telling me that I don't have the funds or the bid would take me past $850. But I've got way more than enough and currently only have 350 or so shares at 99 each.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 19:12
|
|
|
Gyges posted:For some reason the site won't accept any more purchase requests for Warren No on the Dem Nom market for me. It keeps telling me that I don't have the funds or the bid would take me past $850. But I've got way more than enough and currently only have 350 or so shares at 99 each. The site is just helping you beat inflation with your investments. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 19:18
|
|
|
Wow, Cruz and Rubio Yes are taking a huge hit with the impending contract linking.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 22:01
|
|
|
*does a fistpump*
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 00:41
|
|
|
JohnnyPalace posted:Wow, Cruz and Rubio Yes are taking a huge hit with the impending contract linking. I was wondering about that. Can someone explain why linking would drive people to drop their shares?
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 00:51
|
|
|
Paper With Lines posted:I was wondering about that. Can someone explain why linking would drive people to drop their shares? Prior to linking, when there was a contract with lots of outcomes, like R-Nomnination, it was costly to bet No on high probability outcome events because it tied up lots of money for a long time. It led to contracts where if you added up all the Yes's they would add up to over 100%, sometimes over 200%. With linking, if you buy No shares in a second contact, the amount of risk you are taking doesn't go up. It might even go down some, and you can buy a lot more No positions without tying up more of your money. No becomes more desirable. Remember Econ 101 when the demand of something goes up, the price will go up too. Because No is now more desirable, it becomes more expensive, Yes has to become less expensive. Note that there is still nothing forcing all the Yes outcomes to add up to 100%, but without the distortion that makes multiple buying No so costly, the markets will equalize. If the Yes outcomes used to add up to 200% and later they will add up to 100%, on average the price has to drop by half. Traders seeing this preemtively sold their overpriced Yes shares anticipating this and people who had uninvested money are buying No anticipating a quick return.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 01:12
|
|
|
Paper With Lines posted:I was wondering about that. Can someone explain why linking would drive people to drop their shares? More likely it's driving people to buy "no"s instead. Both actions have the exact same effect behind the scenes.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 04:18
|
|
|
I've got like $1100 freeing up on $1600 worth of bets on December 1 and I'm sure there's a lot of people in my shoes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a ton of action in the week after. Make twenty bucks an hour watching CSPAN.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 06:12
|
|
|
Gitmo market hasn't reacted to Obama signing NDAA 2016 yet FYI
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 15:21
|
|
|
There's a new market titled "Will Turkey invoke NATO's Article 4." PredictIt has been coming out with awesome markets lately.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 16:45
|
|
|
Fun yes but not a lot of action to be found there. Turkey's territorial integrity isn't (and won't be) compromised.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 17:01
|
|
|
That's a big ol' NO imo, thanks for the update. EDIT I didn't bite, it's already at 5-95. This is probably a market full of smarter than average people because there's no cult of personality or NewsMax articles involved.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 17:05
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Fun yes but not a lot of action to be found there. Turkey's territorial integrity isn't (and won't be) compromised. Ya, obviously Turkey doesn't have anything to worry about, but all Article 4 says is they want to talk. For this question, it doesn't even have to be about Russia. Turkey already invoked Article 4 over the summer. This would be similar to the Webb Indy Run where for that, all he had to do was change his party affiliation. Will this question resolve to a yes? I doubt it, but there is plenty of opportunity to play the swings.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 17:15
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Fun yes but not a lot of action to be found there. Turkey's territorial integrity isn't (and won't be) compromised. Some very perfunctory research shows that they don't really have to be threatened to use Article 4. Further, Turkey is pretty much the only country that invokes the article, and it has done so a few times.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 20:02
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Some very perfunctory research shows that they don't really have to be threatened to use Article 4. Further, Turkey is pretty much the only country that invokes the article, and it has done so a few times.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 20:22
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Well if that's how it works, did you pick up any cheap Yes? No, it's already up to 20c in theory but literally no yes offers open. Some articles online also indicate Turkey immediately called an emergency NATO meeting the day of the incident, so I'm a bit confused about where things actually stand now. Now would be an excellent time to lowball with No offers, though. Edit: would need to be a meeting between today and the end of the year, so meetings two days ago wouldn't count.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 20:34
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:That's a big ol' NO imo, thanks for the update. YES has gone from .05 to the mid .20's. I could have quadrupled my money, lol still incredibly low volume, though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 26, 2015 22:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 10:38 |
|
|
Necc0 posted:Gitmo market hasn't reacted to Obama signing NDAA 2016 yet FYI Yeah, but look at the rules. "The U.S. shall hold no detainees at the Guantánamo Bay Detention Facility, according to official statement of the Obama administration, at any point prior to Barack Obama's departure from the office of president. This Market may close prior to the end date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met." He could still do some EO stuff on January 19th or whatever, right?
|
|
#
?
Nov 27, 2015 05:24
|
|