COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Stickman posted:

Just keep in mind that that these estimates are almost always VE vs detected infection. Since breakthroughs have a significantly higher rate of asymptomatic or very mild infection, VE against any infection is going to lower.

On the other hand, the initial discussion was about effects on transmission and breakthrough infections tend to also have a lower secondary attack rate. That probably puts their effective VE back up in the 85-90% range in terms of effects on outbreak transmissions (at least for a few months after vax).

Have we featured this paper in this thread?

quote:

Competing Interest Statement

DWE declares lecture fees from Gilead outside the submitted work. No other author has a conflict of interest to declare.

I�ll let Smriti Mallapaty at Nature summarize it.

quote:

COVID vaccines cut the risk of transmitting Delta � but not for long

People who receive two COVID-19 jabs and later contract the Delta variant are less likely to infect their close contacts than are unvaccinated people with Delta.

The first study to look directly at how well vaccines prevent the spread of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 brings good news and bad.

The study shows that people who become infected with the Delta variant are less likely to pass the virus to their close contacts if they have already had a COVID-19 vaccine than if they haven�t1. But that protective effect is relatively small, and dwindles alarmingly at three months after the receipt of the second shot.

The findings add to scientists� understanding of the vaccination�s effect on curbing Delta�s spread, but are �both more and less encouraging�, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious-disease researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

Previous studies have found that people infected with Delta have roughly the same levels of viral genetic materials in their noses regardless of whether they�d previously been vaccinated, suggesting that vaccinated and unvaccinated people might be equally infectious. But studies also suggest that vaccinated people are less likely to spread the virus if they subsequently catch Delta: their levels of nasal virus drop faster than do those of unvaccinated infected people, and their nasal swabs contain smaller amounts of infectious virus.

The latest study examined the effect of vaccines on transmission more directly. It analysed testing data from 139,164 close contacts of 95,716 people infected with SARS-CoV-2 between January and August 2021 in the United Kingdom, when the Alpha and Delta variants were competing for dominance.

The authors found that although the vaccines did offer some protection against infection and onward transmission, Delta dampened that effect. A person who was fully vaccinated and then had a �breakthrough� Delta infection was almost twice as likely to pass on the virus as someone who was infected with Alpha. And that was on top of the higher risk of having a breakthrough infection caused by Delta than one caused by Alpha.

Unfortunately, the vaccine�s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus.

A reduction was also observed in people vaccinated with the jab made by US company Pfizer and German firm BioNTech. The risk of spreading the Delta infection soon after vaccination with that jab was 42%, but increased to 58% with time.

Delta vaults ahead

�There�s a step-change with Alpha versus Delta, but then there�s also a change over time,� says co-author David Eyre, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, UK. The results �possibly explain why we�ve seen so much onward transmission of Delta despite widespread vaccination�.

But the results also offer the �intriguing possibility that if you do run a booster campaign because you want to protect individuals, it may also have this effect of reducing transmission,� says Eyre.

Booster campaigns raise a new uncertainty, says Stephen Riley, an infectious-diseases researcher at Imperial College London: �whether the same waning of protection from infectiousness will occur after the third dose�.

The study has not yet been peer reviewed.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Oct 7, 2021

# ? Oct 7, 2021 17:27

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# ? May 24, 2024 16:43

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

The standard legal and statistical definition for orphanhood has been in operation since it was publicly debated and resolved in the UK 240 years ago.

# ? Oct 7, 2021 17:27

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

another USDA news release

quote:

Confirmation of COVID-19 in a Binturong and a Fishing Cat at an Illinois Zoo

Contact:
Marquita Bady
marquita.bady@usda.gov

Washington, D.C., October 6, 2021 -- The United States Department of Agriculture�s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) today announced confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in a binturong and a fishing cat at a zoo in Illinois. These are the first of either species confirmed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States.

Samples from a variety of species at the zoo, including the binturong and fishing cat, were collected and tested after a tiger at the facility showed signs of the virus.

Samples from the binturong and fishing cat tested presumptive positive at the University of Illinois Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory and the case was confirmed at NVSL. NVSL serves as an international reference laboratory and provides expertise and guidance on diagnostic techniques, as well as confirmatory testing for foreign and emerging animal diseases. Such testing is required for certain animal diseases in the United States in order to comply with national and international reporting procedures. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) considers SARS-CoV-2 an emerging disease, and therefore USDA must report confirmed U.S. animal infections to the OIE.

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in a small number of animal species worldwide, mostly in animals that had close contact with a person with COVID-19. At this time, routine testing of animals is not recommended. State, Tribal, local and territorial animal health and public health officials will work with USDA and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to make determinations about whether animals should be tested for SARS-CoV-2, using a One Health approach.

USDA will announce cases of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in animals each time the virus is found in a new species. Confirmed cases in animals are posted at https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_one_health/sars-cov-2-animals-us.

While additional animals may test positive as infections continue in people, it is important to note that performing this animal testing does not reduce the availability of tests for humans.

We are still learning about SARS-CoV-2 in animals. Based on the information available, the risk of animals spreading the virus to people is considered to be low.

People with COVID-19 can spread the virus to animals during close contact. It is important for people with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to avoid contact with pets and other animals to protect them from possible infection.

For more information about COVID-19 and animals and recommendations for pet owners and people who work around animals, visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/animals/pets-other-animals.html

For more information about how and when to test animals, visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/animals/animal-testing.html and https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/faq-public-on-companion-animal-testing.pdf

# ? Oct 7, 2021 17:58

Phigs: Jan 23, 2019

enki42 posted:

If cases are legitimately decoupled from hospitalization and deaths (I'd add long term consequences as well), how is that giving up? The problem with the decoupling argument is that too many places have been too eager to declare that it's happening before the data is actually showing it's occurring to a significant enough degree, but if it was achieved, why care about cases?

There's probably no realistic scenario where deaths get to 0, and deaths and severe outcomes are absolutely too high in many places right now to say "boom, decoupled. Covid is over!", but saying absolutely zero worldwide deaths ever is the only acceptable outcome is putting blinders on to any negative consequences of lockdowns and restrictions.

To give a hypothetical, if we got to a place where outcomes for COVID, including prevalence of oncoming symptoms were equivalent to influenza (note that I'm absolutely not saying that COVID is currently just the flu, or saying that it reducing severity to that level is a certainty or even likely, just as a thought experiment), would reducing it's prevalence even further be worth adopting some of the more restrictive measures that China adopts? (widespread surveillance, media control, more omnipresent and harsher policing)

Well the difference for me is NSW can say it has some handle on cases so lets open up a bit. Opening up when you're making record cases and still going up feels like giving up. If you're going to do a staged unwinding of lockdown each stage should require stabilization so you actually know where you stand. If you just constantly burn through stages because of arbitrary timelines or vaccine % then you have no idea which stage did what. There's no control, there's no analysis, it's just giving up the idea of containment and hoping the poo poo doesn't hit the fan too hard. If you want to give up covid-zero that doesn't mean you should give up the idea of covid-[acceptable number], and how can you target a number unless you gradually ease up until you hit it?

EDIT: And by "target a number" I mean whatever number allows our hospital system to still function, since that appears to be the acceptable line. And it's hard to know what that number is until we approach it. And shooting past it accidentally is a terrible outcome.

Phigs fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Oct 7, 2021

# ? Oct 7, 2021 18:29

enki42: Jun 11, 2001; #ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

Yeah I'm by no means saying that abandoning adjusting NPIs based on Rt without ample, ample evidence that cases and hospitalizations are completely decoupled makes sense, and ANY removal of NPIs regardless of case counts needs to be gradual and allow time to measure the impact of that removal before moving onto the next step.

My only point is that there's reasonable approaches that aren't "full lockdown anytime there's a case until you're at zero cases", and I suppose case counts are less important if there's certainty that long-term / severe outcomes are nearly entirely decoupled from cases.

The decoupling thing is less relevant for sure right now though, because it's pretty clear there's no country that has decoupled to that degree. I just reject the statement that it's necessary to control cases even if things are genuinely decoupled.

# ? Oct 7, 2021 18:36

Lampsacus: Oct 21, 2008

enki42 posted:

Yeah I'm by no means saying that abandoning adjusting NPIs based on Rt without ample, ample evidence that cases and hospitalizations are completely decoupled makes sense, and ANY removal of NPIs regardless of case counts needs to be gradual and allow time to measure the impact of that removal before moving onto the next step.

My only point is that there's reasonable approaches that aren't "full lockdown anytime there's a case until you're at zero cases", and I suppose case counts are less important if there's certainty that long-term / severe outcomes are nearly entirely decoupled from cases.

The decoupling thing is less relevant for sure right now though, because it's pretty clear there's no country that has decoupled to that degree. I just reject the statement that it's necessary to control cases even if things are genuinely decoupled.

I find it incredible there is a dearth of public discourse on what happens after it's decoupled. The virus will mutate again, the vaccines and boosters will lose most/all effectiveness and reinfection will start skyrocketing again. Because it'll be endemic. I can only reckon that the lack of focus on 'what happens next' is because the present situation is still too big and scary, and fair enough too! But my gxd, we're living in this twilight world where decoupling is such an honest, beautiful goal but also is low key obviously not the end of this. I don't know, maybe I'm being neurotic. Or maybe everybody else is v confident boosters will kept us safe forevermore.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 01:05

Levitate: Sep 30, 2005; randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENI�RE IN ME

Smeef posted:

China is not a great comparison for 'what should X country do'. Yes, they have done an amazing job of getting and keeping Covid under control despite it originating there, spreading there for months before it was recognized, having a billion people, etc.

However, China has a few things in its favor that a lot of countries do not have and cannot just switch on overnight. It doesn't discount Chinese performance, but it does limit the transferability of the lessons.

All that said, this does not mean that the alternative to Zero Covid is Let'er Rip. I don't think anyone in this thread is suggesting that. I think everyone laments that we can't have more decisive and effective responses in many places. But people are rightly recognizing that some of the proposed solutions are basically fantasies.

I appreciate your posts on this and it's noticeable to me that no one is really responding to them. I feel like your points about China not being a good model for the US to follow for a variety of reasons (not the least that the US population just simply did not and does not take it as seriously as the Chinese population) are important and people are just ignoring them or handwaving it away.

If the US wants to somehow to get to "COVID zero" it needs to find a path that's quite a bit different than China IMO

# ? Oct 8, 2021 01:32

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

Lampsacus posted:

The virus will mutate again, the vaccines and boosters will lose most/all effectiveness and reinfection will start skyrocketing again.

That isn�t the average thing that happens with vaccines.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 01:45

poll plane variant: Jan 12, 2021; by sebmojo

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

That isn�t the average thing that happens with vaccines.

It's happened like 4 times in Marek's!

# ? Oct 8, 2021 02:14

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

One fine point I want people to keep in mind is that the domain of mutations that covid can make such that they dodge vaccines and still are able to infect humans is not infinite. There are only so may ways you can reconfigure a protein in a way that it still binds to a cell.

(Knocks on wood) we aren't suddenly going to see a mutation that makes covid novel again and resets the clock on effective vaccines/existing immunity.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 02:24

Lampsacus: Oct 21, 2008

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

That isn�t the average thing that happens with vaccines.

cr0y posted:

One fine point I want people to keep in mind is that the domain of mutations that covid can make such that they dodge vaccines and still are able to infect humans is not infinite. There are only so may ways you can reconfigure a protein in a way that it still binds to a cell.

(Knocks on wood) we aren't suddenly going to see a mutation that makes covid novel again and resets the clock on effective vaccines/existing immunity.

Oh, OK. I'm pretty uneducated on this sort of thing so thank you for the clarification.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 02:31

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

poll plane variant posted:

It's happened like 4 times in Marek's!

Yeah, now think about why your example is an obscure poultry virus instead of any common human disease, and what that says about how frequently that is the case.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 02:31

poll plane variant: Jan 12, 2021; by sebmojo

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Yeah, now think about why your example is an obscure poultry virus instead of any common human disease, and what that says about how frequently that is the case.

That's just the flashy example but the flu does it yearly

# ? Oct 8, 2021 02:58

Evis: Feb 28, 2007; Flying Spaghetti Monster

Levitate posted:

If the US wants to somehow to get to "COVID zero" it needs to find a path that's quite a bit different than China IMO

Is there a way to do that in the environment of �individual freedom� that exists in the US and Canada etc? Without restricting communications or movement I don�t see a way to do it. You can do a few things like hand out free HVAC systems with HEPA filters or free masks, but you can�t even get people to use them. It seems like we simply lack the ability to deal with any large problem such as this because it�s impossible to herd cats.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:03

StrangeThing: Aug 23, 2021; by Hand Knit

Side note, I find it loving hilarious that people are praising China for their COVID response (in some cases rightly so) while in the same breath ignoring the complete gently caress-ups in China that resulted in the virus itself spreading outside its borders, including cracking down on doctors and other experts who wanted to speak out about it.

This isn't some bullshit "China virus" argument, so don't both replying with that nonsense, but when it comes to virus response every single country has hosed up on some level. China's gently caress-ups came earlier rather than later.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:08

poll plane variant: Jan 12, 2021; by sebmojo

StrangeThing posted:

Side note, I find it loving hilarious that people are praising China for their COVID response (in some cases rightly so) while in the same breath ignoring the complete gently caress-ups in China that resulted in the virus itself spreading outside its borders, including cracking down on doctors and other experts who wanted to speak out about it.

This isn't some bullshit "China virus" argument, so don't both replying with that nonsense, but when it comes to virus response every single country has hosed up on some level. China's gently caress-ups came earlier rather than later.

I 100% thought this was going to be their Chernobyl moment where the rigidity and paranoia of their authoritarian system is exposed and crumbles, but instead they managed to recover from those mistakes and run the best response in the world while the West slid into an absolute self-parody of libertarian ideals of "freedom". The US has totally and suicidally divorced itself from reality and everyone else is following our lead.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:25

Levitate: Sep 30, 2005; randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENI�RE IN ME

Evis posted:

Is there a way to do that in the environment of �individual freedom� that exists in the US and Canada etc? Without restricting communications or movement I don�t see a way to do it. You can do a few things like hand out free HVAC systems with HEPA filters or free masks, but you can�t even get people to use them. It seems like we simply lack the ability to deal with any large problem such as this because it�s impossible to herd cats.

I mean honestly yes this is probably the most accurate

Things could be done better but I don't really see a way for the US to stamp out COVID entirely due to the nature of its people at the very least

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:26

StrangeThing: Aug 23, 2021; by Hand Knit

poll plane variant posted:

I 100% thought this was going to be their Chernobyl moment where the rigidity and paranoia of their authoritarian system is exposed and crumbles, but instead they managed to recover from those mistakes and run the best response in the world while the West slid into an absolute self-parody of libertarian ideals of "freedom". The US has totally and suicidally divorced itself from reality and everyone else is following our lead.

Speak for yourself. My state of Victoria has a higher vaccination rate than your entire country.

"Recover from those mistakes"...sure, but the rest of the world deals with the fallout of their mistakes. This is a global pandemic because of many countries, but let's be absolutely clear: China is as guilty as any other country when it comes to the global spread of COVID.

quote:

Caijing, a business magazine, published an explosive interview with an anonymous health expert who acknowledged that officials in Wuhan delayed warning the public that the virus could spread from person to person. �Why was no human-to-human transmission found?� the headline asked.

Caixin, an influential newsmagazine, detailed how health officials concealed early evidence that the virus showed striking similarities to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which caused a deadly global outbreak in 2002 and 2003. �When was the alarm sounded?� it asked.

quote:

Within weeks, the authorities began tightening their grip, instructing both the state-run news media and more commercially minded outlets to limit negative stories, even on topics that once seemed straightforward, such as the economic impact of the virus.

The crackdown worsened after the death on Feb. 7 of Li Wenliang, a doctor who was silenced by the police after he tried to warn about the mysterious virus. Millions of people took part in an online revolt and demanded free speech, hailing Dr. Li, who had contracted the virus, as a hero for speaking out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/business/media/coronavirus-china-journalists.html

Let's not forget that when pointing at other countries and saying "why can't you be like China".

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:43

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

poll plane variant posted:

That's just the flashy example but the flu does it yearly

Flu doesn't spontaneously mutate year to year. Influensa is just an entire genus of viruses. Bird flu one year is a different species of virus than swine flu another year. H1N1 and H3N2 and so on all refer to different entire species of flu (that further complicate things because they can cross breed freely and trade sections). Flu is an example of there being a hundred million years of evolution creating hundreds of related similar diseases that we get over and over, not the case of a vaccine causing new viruses to arise out of a single viral line.

(You aren't even right about merak's being an example, the vaccine largely has remained effective, and the change has been it's gotten worse in unvaccinated birds.)

# ? Oct 8, 2021 03:57

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

StrangeThing posted:

Speak for yourself. My state of Victoria has a higher vaccination rate than your entire country.

"Recover from those mistakes"...sure, but the rest of the world deals with the fallout of their mistakes. This is a global pandemic because of many countries, but let's be absolutely clear: China is as guilty as any other country when it comes to the global spread of COVID.

Do you seriously think any other country would contained COVID before it left their borders? Sure, a good response could have, but it's a pretty big mind pretzel to argue that China letting happen what it's clear that every other country on Earth would have let happen somehow makes them just as responsible for the global COVID as the countries exporting virus and variants for the past 18 months (and making zero COVID that much harder for the countries actually trying it).

E: I mean, the whole thing is a non-sequitor for the current state of the world anyway.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 04:03

fosborb: Dec 15, 2006; Chronic Good Poster

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Flu doesn't spontaneously mutate year to year. Influensa is just an entire genus of viruses. Bird flu one year is a different species of virus than swine flu another year. H1N1 and H3N2 and so on all refer to different entire species of flu (that further complicate things because they can cross breed freely and trade sections). Flu is an example of there being a hundred million years of evolution creating hundreds of related similar diseases that we get over and over, not the case of a vaccine causing new viruses to arise out of a single viral line.

(You aren't even right about merak's being an example, the vaccine largely has remained effective, and the change has been it's gotten worse in unvaccinated birds.)

cool, what's your prepared answer to tdap

, since we're just going to apparently ignore flu vaccines, and how we're flying blind this year because no one got it last year due to NPIs

# ? Oct 8, 2021 04:15

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

cr0y posted:

One fine point I want people to keep in mind is that the domain of mutations that covid can make such that they dodge vaccines and still are able to infect humans is not infinite. There are only so may ways you can reconfigure a protein in a way that it still binds to a cell.

(Knocks on wood) we aren't suddenly going to see a mutation that makes covid novel again and resets the clock on effective vaccines/existing immunity.

Probably not suddenly, but I wish the domain were well‐constrained.

Platystemon posted:

This was a comforting argument to many in May of 2020, but the fact is that the solution space to this problem is vast and there�s no fundamental reason that SARS‐CoV‐2 can�t explore it for what is on human timescales a long time.

(source)

SARS‐CoV‐2 has its spike and many variants thereof. SARS‐CoV has a distinct spike, and look at that, almost ninety percent similarity. Those virologists chose the name for a reason. They are both members of genus Betacoronavirus, subgenus sarbecovirus

Also in the genus Betacoronavirus, but now subgenus embecovirus, we have OC43 and HKU1, viruses that sometimes cause �the common cold�. Their spikes aren�t all that similar to SARS‐CoV‐2�s, but they target different receptors than it, and they remain more similar than the spikes of Alphacoronaviruses 229E and NL63 (also common cold culprits).

So far this makes sense. The genetic relationship works as we would expect.

Now here�s the interesting thing. NL63�s receptor? It�s angiotensin‐converting enzyme 2, same as SARS‐CoV and SARS‐CoV‐2. It has less chemical similarity to their spikes, yet it opens the same lock.

I�m not suggesting that SARS‐CoV‐2 is going to carbon‐copy NL63�s spike and end up with an antibody‐evading monster. I am suggesting that it is foolhardy to believe that laws of chemistry put hard limits on how much the spike can differ from its present construction and still gently caress us up.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 04:17

StrangeThing: Aug 23, 2021; by Hand Knit

Stickman posted:

Do you seriously think any other country would contained COVID before it left their borders? Sure, a good response could have, but it's a pretty big mind pretzel to argue that China letting happen what it's clear that every other country on Earth would have let happen somehow makes them just as responsible for the global COVID as the countries exporting virus and variants for the past 18 months (and making zero COVID that much harder for the countries actually trying it).

E: I mean, the whole thing is a non-sequitor for the current state of the world anyway.

Read what I'm posting, not what you think I'm posting. I'm saying that China willfully and deliberately quashed information that could help contain COVID at the beginning of the outbreak.

Has their response since been effective? Insofar as it has prevented COVID at the expense of human rights, then yes. You can quibble about whether you not you think it's worth it, and that's fine, but at the beginning of this pandemic China absolutely neglected to prevent it as much as they could have done, and in that sense they share guilt with the rest of the world.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 04:46

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

poll plane variant posted:

I 100% thought this was going to be their Chernobyl moment where the rigidity and paranoia of their authoritarian system is exposed and crumbles, but instead they managed to recover from those mistakes and run the best response in the world while the West slid into an absolute self-parody of libertarian ideals of "freedom". The US has totally and suicidally divorced itself from reality and everyone else is following our lead.

The first few months of the pandemic � before it had really gone global�� it really felt like a regime collapse in China was possible. I have never seen the kind of public fury towards the government, so much that it seemed to be overwhelming censorship efforts. Even party members I know were saying gently caress this poo poo, it's over. It's hard to believe in hindsight, and I don't recall ever seen any stories about it.

Then the rest of the world completely poo poo their pants. Xi rebounded, crushed a lot of the dissent that had spoken up, and is now stronger than ever.

Evis posted:

Is there a way to do that in the environment of �individual freedom� that exists in the US and Canada etc? Without restricting communications or movement I don�t see a way to do it. You can do a few things like hand out free HVAC systems with HEPA filters or free masks, but you can�t even get people to use them. It seems like we simply lack the ability to deal with any large problem such as this because it�s impossible to herd cats.

I made an effort post earlier about how I think there was a window of opportunity for Trump or a Republican president to frame Covid in the right way, push through the kind of major reforms necessary to combat it, and maintain the popular support needed.

Also, while I don't think it would have worked in the face of a virus that spreads as Covid, there are plenty of precedents for cultural interventions to stop epidemics. Efforts to stop the 2014 (?) Ebola outbreak in West Africa were up against enormous cultural barriers, some not unlike what we see in the US, and had the additional challenge of taking place in a geography with very low state capacity. Foreign medical experts and interventions were distrusted. Cultural practices included behaviors that greatly increased spread, such as burial ceremonies that involved physical contact with the dead. Ultimately interventions partnered with anthropologists and adapted approaches to the local context � something that many in this thread seem incapable of conceiving. They courted local leaders like village elders. They developed cultural sensitive alternatives that reduced risk. They redesigned aspects of the medical interventions that were scaring the poo poo out of people. For example, at first temporary medical camps were surrounded by opaque sheets. People would enter alive, escorted by ominous workers in weird equipment, and then dead bodies would come out. Not surprisingly, people would rather run or hide than submit themselves to that.) Some of my details on this may be sketchy because I'm recalling from memory.

You can imagine a similar approach in the US, though I honestly think Trump singlehandedly played a unique role in making it impossible. Instead of evangelicals being a stronghold of Covid-eating death cultists, Trump could have leveraged evangelical leaders to play a positive role in their communities.

Even if Trump had done the right thing, I sometimes feel like American officials and public health experts are especially terrible at understanding and communicating to Americans. I don't live in the US, maybe the actual experience has been different. But to me it seems like CDC and others thinks they can hold a formal press conference, wave around a peer reviewed paper, and expect the public to react in a rational way.

At this point, though, I don't know what the US can do that would really crush Covid. The government does not have the policies that allow it to take the right actions and doesn't have the spine to push through the policies needed. If it did, the SCOTUS would undermine it. If the SCOTUS let it pass, the public is so hosed that it would still be a monumental battle.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 05:11

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

StrangeThing posted:

Read what I'm posting, not what you think I'm posting. I'm saying that China willfully and deliberately quashed information that could help contain COVID at the beginning of the outbreak.

Has their response since been effective? Insofar as it has prevented COVID at the expense of human rights, then yes. You can quibble about whether you not you think it's worth it, and that's fine, but at the beginning of this pandemic China absolutely neglected to prevent it as much as they could have done, and in that sense they share guilt with the rest of the world.

I read what you wrote and I'm continuing to say that this part is ridiculous:

StrangeThing posted:

This is a global pandemic because of many countries, but let's be absolutely clear: China is as guilty as any other country when it comes to the global spread of COVID.

Your adjustment to "they share guilt with the rest of the world" is absolutely true. However, a counterfactual world where they did not do their early cover up is extremely unlikely to look much different in terms of global spread because almost all of the rest of world were utterly inept at contain COVID once they had it within their borders (esp the US and Europe when it comes to resources:ineptness ratios). A counterfactual world where more large countries cooperated to successfully control COVID would make the world look very different right now.

E: And similarly for a counterfactual where COVID started in, say, the US and the initial outbreak was not covered up.

Smeef posted:

The first few months of the pandemic � before it had really gone global � it really felt like a regime collapse in China was possible. I have never seen the kind of public fury towards the government, so much that it seemed to be overwhelming censorship efforts. Even party members I know were saying gently caress this poo poo, it's over. It's hard to believe in hindsight, and I don't recall ever seen any stories about it.

Then the rest of the world completely poo poo their pants. Xi rebounded, crushed a lot of the dissent that had spoken up, and is now stronger than ever.

I had forgotten about that! It makes you wonder what would have happened if the rest of the world hadn't demonstrated their utter inability to protect their citizens.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Oct 8, 2021

# ? Oct 8, 2021 06:42

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1446280306814816261

:confuoot:

i guess???

# ? Oct 8, 2021 12:11

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1446280306814816261

i guess???

# ? Oct 8, 2021 13:08

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1446280306814816261

i guess???

Good for them, if it's true? I remain pretty skeptical of any self-reporting from the CCP.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 15:39

redbrouw: Nov 14, 2018; ACAB

We have zero cases (that I know of)!

# ? Oct 8, 2021 21:51

IT BURNS: Nov 19, 2012

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1446280306814816261

i guess???

Not according to several people I know in Harbin, Guangzhou, Xiamen, and other cities that are back on lockdown...

# ? Oct 8, 2021 22:20

HelloSailorSign: Jan 27, 2011

Lampsacus posted:

Oh, OK. I'm pretty uneducated on this sort of thing so thank you for the clarification.

There are many aspects to the pathogen-host immune system interaction that goes on that determines on how something can go long term.

First off, it would be extremely, extremely unlikely that a SARS CoV-2 strain would pop up that is so vastly different than what we had just seen that would wind up negating all previous protection. If you go ten years into the future and analyze a strain, it probably could be significantly different than, say, Alpha, such that immunity gained to Alpha would be measly in the face of the Kappa Kappa Kappa variant. However, it is highly likely that in the event we're dealing with endemic COVID (and that's my expectation worldwide) that everyone is exposed to a variant that's within a few variant of concern names, which means they'll likely have significant protection against that new variant while not necessarily being completely immune. There's a bit of a clarification point here, the difference between a sterilizing immunity (you never get infected) vs. a significantly lowered morbidity/mortality rate due to previous immune history. Where we are right now in the pandemic, I'm losing interest in hearing about case numbers and instead am far more interested in clinical outcomes. 1000 people with prior protection (vaccine, previous infection) becoming "infected" and being counted as cases is largely irrelevant if we don't also take into account the clinical outcomes. 1000 cases with 2 hospitalizations and 1 death is a very different thing from 10 hospitalizations and 5 deaths, is a different thing from 0 hospitalizations but 150 cases of multiple months of debilitating illness and long term problems. This is in part due to the still atrocious state of testing across the US and the fact that vaccines will increase the chance you have very minor to no clinical signs from catching COVID, meaning you're not going to go off and get tested. I would care more about cases if we had consistent, regular, population level testing regimens. We do not.

This is a distinction point in the influenza discussion. Yes, influenza likes to mutate. However, one of the issues is that the first influenza you're exposed to is going to influence the types of antibodies and their binding sites going forwards, which means each individual may be better or worse at different years depending on the first one they were exposed to. You'll find reading on this under the discussions of "original antigenic sin" (which there's some argument that's too imprecise) or antigenic seniority.

Second, we expect there to be a waning sterilizing immunity over time, and honestly for respiratory pathogens you don't largely expect super high sterilizing immunity from systemic vaccination (getting shot in the arm) in the first place. That we got a surprisingly large amount with the mRNA vaccines was a happy surprise. First, this is because if you maintained a sterilizing immunity to every pathogen you ever encountered, your blood would turn into a viscous gloop and you would be dead from it just being all antibodies. That's why we have memory cells that, when the pathogen comes back, they can ramp up production of the appropriate antibodies quickly and destroy the invader. While this does give the pathogen a little time to replicate, it's usually not much. Additionally, those memory cells have a bit of mutation going on in them which tends to make them make antibodies that are still effective against future variants. Our immune system was designed to cope with viral mutation to an extent. And second, it's because respiratory pathogens replicate in respiratory cells, which means they can replicate there before being detected by systemic immunity. If we had good local immunity, that helps out with a sterilizing immunity.

Note here you might see people discussing whether or not COVID can torch the cell mediated immune system (antibodies are part of the humoral immune system). That's.... unlikely. I won't say impossible, because it's still possible. But it doesn't really match the overall observation of a lack of new badness in those who were infected over 1.5 years ago. This does not appear anywhere near the, say, immune amnesia thing of measles.

The immune system and infectious disease are extremely difficult topics to understand and master. It is very easy to see something and think it means the end of everything. It is very easy for people who know a little bit to be more dangerous than useful. And, it is very difficult for normal people to understand that research, medicine, and public health are nasty businesses and that someone who was good in one thing means little to nothing in something else, that it takes years to reach a true consensus, and that being affiliated with a well-known institution doesn't mean that person is actually good.

# ? Oct 8, 2021 23:40

GutBomb: Jun 15, 2005; Dude?

I�ve seen a new batch of chud misinformation on Twitter the past couple days saying that Pfizer�s FDA approval for Comirnaty is a separate thing from the �Pfizer Vaccine� and it�s not even active until 2023. I know it�s fake, and the purpose is to muddy the waters and make things confusing for people, but these things usually have one nugget of truth that�s been completely misinterpreted/bent out of shape so it resembles truth but isn�t anywhere near it.

Anyway, does anyone know what this poo poo is based on so when my stupid family members tell me about it I can rip it to shred with facts? I looked at the FDA approval letter for comirnaty and the only mention of 2023 is when some child study is supposed to be complete but the letter is pretty clear that it�s the vaccine that�s been circulating from the start and not a new product so the chuds misinterpreting / misrepresenting the letter would be surprisingly transparent.

# ? Oct 9, 2021 14:18

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

GutBomb posted:

I�ve seen a new batch of chud misinformation on Twitter the past couple days saying that Pfizer�s FDA approval for Comirnaty is a separate thing from the �Pfizer Vaccine� and it�s not even active until 2023. I know it�s fake, and the purpose is to muddy the waters and make things confusing for people, but these things usually have one nugget of truth that�s been completely misinterpreted/bent out of shape so it resembles truth but isn�t anywhere near it.

Anyway, does anyone know what this poo poo is based on so when my stupid family members tell me about it I can rip it to shred with facts? I looked at the FDA approval letter for comirnaty and the only mention of 2023 is when some child study is supposed to be complete but the letter is pretty clear that it�s the vaccine that�s been circulating from the start and not a new product so the chuds misinterpreting / misrepresenting the letter would be surprisingly transparent.

Renaming a drug makes it legally a different drug, for record keeping, but it's the same thing as when the drug had no brand name. Like if there was some drug trial for some heart medicine and it was just called "heart medicine 000-12" and then they released it as "ceabrin" or some drug sounding name the records would stop showing anything about 000-12 and only show ceabrin. They wouldn't need to be 30 years later and tracking it as 000-12 . If you had to answer how many doses were delivered you could give a clear answer instead of having to count in like, all the trial stuff where people got like quarter doses and double doses and ambiguous stuff unless the request requested both drugs.

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/qa-comirnaty-covid-19-vaccine-mrna

Comirnaty has the same formulation as the FDA-authorized Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and can be used interchangeably to provide the COVID-19 vaccination series without presenting any safety or effectiveness concerns. The products are legally distinct with certain differences that do not impact safety or effectiveness.

# ? Oct 9, 2021 14:49

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

GutBomb posted:

I�ve seen a new batch of chud misinformation on Twitter the past couple days saying that Pfizer�s FDA approval for Comirnaty is a separate thing from the �Pfizer Vaccine� and it�s not even active until 2023. I know it�s fake, and the purpose is to muddy the waters and make things confusing for people, but these things usually have one nugget of truth that�s been completely misinterpreted/bent out of shape so it resembles truth but isn�t anywhere near it.

Anyway, does anyone know what this poo poo is based on so when my stupid family members tell me about it I can rip it to shred with facts? I looked at the FDA approval letter for comirnaty and the only mention of 2023 is when some child study is supposed to be complete but the letter is pretty clear that it�s the vaccine that�s been circulating from the start and not a new product so the chuds misinterpreting / misrepresenting the letter would be surprisingly transparent.

Footnote ten in the FDA authorization letter for Comirnaty:

quote:

The licensed vaccine has the same formulation as the EUA-authorized vaccine and the products can be used interchangeably to provide the vaccination series without presenting any safety or effectiveness concerns. The products are legally distinct with certain differences that do not impact safety or effectiveness.

The differences, as I understand them, are the labelling and the included documentation.

Some of the clinical trials have completion dates in 2023. Pfizer is committed (legally and otherwise) to continue to check up on the trial participants through that time and submit reports to the FDA some months after that. The vaccine is fully approved now, yes, but followup is important. These particular final reports are unlikely to be page turners, but for some drugs we�re still finding things out years later.

# ? Oct 9, 2021 14:53

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

The all-new 2022 Ford F350 King Ranch Crew Cab with extra lift and full infotainment suite optional will also be an unofficial designation until it is proven that it can be a most perfect emblem of everything wrong with this country as well. When it is proven is can truly terrorize and waste within acceptable standards and limits is when it becomes the all-new 2022 Ford F350 King Ranch Crew Cab, even though it is identical to the model that passed testing under a different name

# ? Oct 9, 2021 17:37

MadJackal: Apr 30, 2004

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmZSBA8gbWM

Every single time news like this comes out, there's a chance it catches on in the public and I basically lose one of the options I can offer to my more stubborn patients. Way more people globally will die from "vaccine hesitancy" over national level decisions to pause COVID vaccines than will die from tweaking the age recommendations until they're perfect.

# ? Oct 9, 2021 17:38

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

What's the latest on Pfizer's expected submittal for under fives

# ? Oct 9, 2021 18:12

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Hello Covid thread. I was away dealing with some more medical emergencies and doing my best not to lose any more weight. Some of the conversations I have reviewed so far got pretty lovely, but after skim reading I don't need anyone needs a boppin. Please try to treat each other a little more like human beings though. I'll be trying to keep up more now that I'm feeling healthy again but KEEP CALM and :justpost:

# ? Oct 9, 2021 19:56

Castaign: Apr 4, 2011; And now I knew that while my body sat safe in the cheerful little church, he had been hunting my soul in the Court of the Dragon.

Professor Beetus posted:

Hello Covid thread. I was away dealing with some more medical emergencies and doing my best not to lose any more weight. Some of the conversations I have reviewed so far got pretty lovely, but after skim reading I don't need anyone needs a boppin. Please try to treat each other a little more like human beings though. I'll be trying to keep up more now that I'm feeling healthy again but KEEP CALM and

Welcome back Prof.

# ? Oct 9, 2021 23:28

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 24, 2024 16:43

Kaal: May 22, 2002; through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Professor Beetus posted:

Hello Covid thread. I was away dealing with some more medical emergencies and doing my best not to lose any more weight. Some of the conversations I have reviewed so far got pretty lovely, but after skim reading I don't need anyone needs a boppin. Please try to treat each other a little more like human beings though. I'll be trying to keep up more now that I'm feeling healthy again but KEEP CALM and

Glad you're feeling better. Class is back in session! 🤪

# ? Oct 10, 2021 00:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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