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They're not retweets, they're quoting Lavrov statements to show their position hasn't changed. 100% chance of a Russian veto.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:09
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So once Syria falls, what country is the next domino?
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Jul 19, 2012 15:33
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truth masseuse posted:So once Syria falls, what country is the next domino? The United States.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:34
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truth masseuse posted:So once Syria falls, what country is the next domino? There is no other domino, the gulf countries have been rallied and every revolution this point forward has been successfully subjected.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:36
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truth masseuse posted:So once Syria falls, what country is the next domino? People are looking at Iran and Lebanon but I can't see it happening. Syria is the last wave of the revolution breaking away. Once Assad goes, that's the middle east for the next couple of decades.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:37
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az jan jananam posted:They're not retweets, they're quoting Lavrov statements to show their position hasn't changed. You have to
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Jul 19, 2012 15:37
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Unless Sudan turns out to be real, this is probably it. Not ruling out Sudan until we get real news from there.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:38
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Capt Murphy posted:You have to The Russians really hate America. This can't be stated enough, it's not a cliche from the movies. Anything America does or support, it has to be opposed. They loving hated abstaining from Libya and wished they never did that.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:39
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I'm waiting for Lebanon to explode. It's been too long without some stupid war. Hezbollah are going to be pissed when whatever happens in Syria is over. And we haven't gotten electricity for almost... 3 weeks I think? Aoun is still causing trouble, and I don't think backup generators/motors are going to last for a few months straight.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:39
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Patter Song posted:Unless Sudan turns out to be real, this is probably it. Sudan is more likely to devolve into a war with South Sudan again since no one can play nice and share the oil wealth. Lebanon wouldn't be so much an Arab Spring revolution as a total sectarian poo poo show. Honestly, Iran is an interesting candidate if you think there's any life left in the 2009 movement. Jordan maybe? But the monarch there has been moving toward reform, same with Morocco.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:45
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HGH posted:And we haven't gotten electricity for almost... 3 weeks I think? Aoun is still causing trouble, and I don't think backup generators/motors are going to last for a few months straight. The electricity thing is getting everyone's hackles up, especially now when the air conditioning cuts off and we all wake up in sweltering heat. No wonder major events tend to happen in the summer. What's Aoun's stance on current events?
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Jul 19, 2012 15:57
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Capt Murphy posted:Jordan maybe? But the monarch there has been moving toward reform, same with Morocco. A friend of mine just returned from Jordan and said that things were relatively calm. A lot of Jordanians that she talked to (mostly students) seem to think that they can pressure the king into transitioning to a constitutional monarchy without resorting to major bloodshed.
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Jul 19, 2012 15:59
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Al-Saqr posted:There is no other domino, the gulf countries have been rallied and every revolution this point forward has been successfully subjected. There's still the Palestinian territories; there could be some settling out of things there. I'd love to see the Arab Spring move northeast into the former Soviet Union, bringing down Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and maybe even Belarus. And of course, I've probably mentioned it a half dozen times here but since I knew two kids from there in high school during their war for independence, I've always had an eye towards just how utterly lovely Eritrea has gotten. It's ranked worse than North Korea in press freedom. Seriously? Then again, an impoverished nation with no press freedom probably means most don't even know the Arab Spring is taking place.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:00
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Political unrest could flare up at any moment as long as there is widespread discontent. It might keep bubbling under for some time, but what the Arab Spring taught is that even the slightest event could trigger mass demonstrations that end up forcing the governments to yield. However, west is not going to encourage civil unrest in any of the remaining Arab countries. Just Iran.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:01
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Guardian Liveblog posted:3.31pm: Russia and China have again used their veto to block a UN security council resolution on Syria. This means the observer mission will not continue. 
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Jul 19, 2012 16:03
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I know it's slightly off topic but aren't most fo the revolutions leaving Muslim Secular groups in control of the countries? IE Egypt etc.. or are they actual democracies? Basically who would be in control of Syria when the government did fall.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:05
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Russia can kiss their naval port in Tartus goodbye when this all plays out. And then they'll be at an even greater strategic disadvantage compared to NATO. 
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Jul 19, 2012 16:10
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Zeno-25 posted:Russia can kiss their naval port in Tartus goodbye when this all plays out. And then they'll be at an even greater strategic disadvantage compared to NATO. If they had turned on Assad the moment things got nasty, they might have been able to keep it with a new regime. By supporting him, they guaranteed that the first thing a new government will do is tell them to get out, now.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:12
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Hollis posted:I know it's slightly off topic but aren't most fo the revolutions leaving Muslim Secular groups in control of the countries? IE Egypt etc.. or are they actual democracies? Basically who would be in control of Syria when the government did fall. They have started a progress of democratization. It's never an overnight change, and it could also fail, it remains to be seen. Eg. Turkey is still continuing that progress despite of having a head start, they did have a few military coups along the way though... Iraq and Afghanistan have also shown how difficult it can be, but then the new form of government was brought to them at gunpoint.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:13
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Golbez posted:If they had turned on Assad the moment things got nasty, they might have been able to keep it with a new regime. By supporting him, they guaranteed that the first thing a new government will do is tell them to get out, now. And you think Assad would have let them stay, then? Besides, there's nothing that a few billions in foreign aid can't buy. The new Syria's coffers will be empty, and she needs to rebuild her army if she wants Golan back some day. And USA is not going to assist in that.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:17
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Nenonen posted:Besides, there's nothing that a few billions in foreign aid can't buy. The new Syria's coffers will be empty, and she needs to rebuild her army if she wants Golan back some day. And USA is not going to assist in that. If there's one thing 100% for sure, is that the new administration will be neither interested in a strong army or returning the Golan heights, do you really think their gulf paymasters (who are flirting with Israel) want either of these? Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 16:20
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Nenonen posted:And you think Assad would have let them stay, then? quote:Besides, there's nothing that a few billions in foreign aid can't buy. The new Syria's coffers will be empty, and she needs to rebuild her army if she wants Golan back some day. And USA is not going to assist in that. Israel was a very useful boogeyman for Assad. Will the Syrian people place that ahead of all of the other rebuilding of their country that will need to be done? I think the people of Syria will remember exactly how Russia treated them, both in the UN and materially.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:24
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Ambassador Rice basically said she is giving up on the Security Council and that America will work outside of the UN to "pressure" Assad. She called today "A dark day in Turtle Bay" which I am sure will end up in a history book somewhere
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Jul 19, 2012 16:27
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Somehow I don't know how Syria can successfully topple Assad without the next stop to regime change being Iran. The US government has been harping on this since Bush/Cheney was in office and the anti-Muslim momentum in the US hasn't cooled down at all. The Ayatollah has been a sore point for the US for over 30 years and I'm sure if there is any possible opening to cause "regime change" the US will take it.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:27
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Assad has appeared promoting one of the new ministers, so he's still alive.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:28
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Brown Moses posted:Assad has appeared promoting one of the new ministers, so he's still alive. has appeared where, damascus or latakia?
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Jul 19, 2012 16:29
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Highspeeddub posted:Somehow I don't know how Syria can successfully topple Assad without the next stop to regime change being Iran. The US government has been harping on this since Bush/Cheney was in office and the anti-Muslim momentum in the US hasn't cooled down at all. The Ayatollah has been a sore point for the US for over 30 years and I'm sure if there is any possible opening to cause "regime change" the US will take it. You're saying this like you expect active regime change, like Iraq, rather than assistive (Libya) or passive (Egypt). America has no interest in a war in Iran right now, despite what some desperate hawks are saying.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:31
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Highspeeddub posted:Somehow I don't know how Syria can successfully topple Assad without the next stop to regime change being Iran. The US government has been harping on this since Bush/Cheney was in office and the anti-Muslim momentum in the US hasn't cooled down at all. The Ayatollah has been a sore point for the US for over 30 years and I'm sure if there is any possible opening to cause "regime change" the US will take it. Yeah, that's not going to happen. Domino theory always has been and always will be a terrible metaphor for geopolitics. Iran had a period of unrest, but the regime managed to get through it with a little applied brutality and the support of religious conservatives who make up a huge chunk of the country. Also, Iran has periodic elections, which gives the elected leadership a veneer of credibility. There won't be a violent uprising again until maybe the next elections, if they are perceived to have been stolen.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:32
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sullat posted:Yeah, that's not going to happen. Domino theory always has been and always will be a terrible metaphor for geopolitics. Iran had a period of unrest, but the regime managed to get through it with a little applied brutality and the support of religious conservatives who make up a huge chunk of the country. Also, Iran has periodic elections, which gives the elected leadership a veneer of credibility. There won't be a violent uprising again until maybe the next elections, if they are perceived to have been stolen. This is true, especially given how the last parliamentary elections had a reasonably high turnout that means the Iranian regime isn't quite on it's way to a fresh uprising.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:34
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:People are looking at Iran and Lebanon but I can't see it happening. Syria is the last wave of the revolution breaking away. Once Assad goes, that's the middle east for the next couple of decades. Lebanon is considered unstable? I thought they were pretty okay?
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Jul 19, 2012 16:36
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Al-Saqr posted:has appeared where, damascus or latakia? Damascus, it wasn't live though.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:38
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Thanks for the new thread title, rear end in a top hat! I jumped up and down when I saw it and Assad's wife is totally fine. Did some searching around and it appears she fled to Russia after the attacks in Damascus. That's going to be huge for the rebels morale, and make the regime look extremely weak. I can't see this thing lasting more than a few weeks. Assad could just leave the country, but that opens the door for a government takeover. Edit: My memory failed me. Duck was Assad's nickname from his wife, not for his wife. Whoops. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 16:42
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Golbez posted:Russia had a choice - they could have been on the right side of history, they chose not to be. If Assad won, Russia would have remained, but Russia has stuck with Assad long past the point of, "I think this might peter out." Their switching sides, even after Homs, could have really assisted the rebels to an earlier victory, thus perhaps allowing them to stay in Tartus. But by continuing to support Assad, all they have done is guarantee they will be evicted moments after a new government takes over. My question was, do you think that Assad would have let Russian stay if they betrayed him? Assad is still in charge of the army, he could evict the Russians at any time he wishes. quote:Israel was a very useful boogeyman for Assad. Will the Syrian people place that ahead of all of the other rebuilding of their country that will need to be done? And what, would they sue for peace and let Israel keep a part of Syria? No loving way. Syrian opposition hates Assad just as much as they hate Israel. 
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Jul 19, 2012 16:43
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I think it would be the supreme irony for the Russians if most of Syria falls into the FSA's hands, while Assad controls the coastline. They enter into negotiations and the FSA is fine with Assad's rump state, but they want a port city region and Assad ends up giving them Tartous. Lavrov would be loving livid if that happened.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:43
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5er posted:Lebanon is considered unstable? I thought they were pretty okay? Lebanon is always unstable, moreso now.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:46
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Nenonen posted:My question was, do you think that Assad would have let Russian stay if they betrayed him? Assad is still in charge of the army, he could evict the Russians at any time he wishes. quote:And what, would they sue for peace and let Israel keep a part of Syria? No loving way. Syrian opposition hates Assad just as much as they hate Israel.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:48
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Golbez posted:Sue for peace? So far as I can recall there hasn't been open war between Israel and Syria for 30 years. There's no peace to sue for, it's there, just don't rock the boat further. Without a dictator needing to create a boogeyman, hopefully whomever takes over will realize the priorities lie inward, not outward. "Peace", in that Israel is illegally occupying and colonizing land that belongs to Syria.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:49
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Some serious blowback from Britain and France regarding the security council vote. From the Brits British UN Ambassador posted:"Russia and China are failing in their responsibilities as permanent security council members," Lyall Grant said, adding that the proposed resolution is supported by almost every group internationally. The French a bit more to the point French UN Abmassador posted:The French ambassador, Gérard Araud, was even more criticial, declaring that "'history will prove [Russia and China] wrong, and it will judge them". I'm not sure of the longterm ramifications of this, but it's become very clear that Russia has seriously isolated themselves over Syria. China of course gives zero shits about human rights, so that shouldn't be surprising to anyone.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:51
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az jan jananam posted:Lebanon is always unstable, moreso now. Lebanon is stable when at least one militia and/or foreign army trying to overthrow the government.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:51
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Capt Murphy posted:I'm not sure of the longterm ramifications of this, but it's become very clear that Russia has seriously isolated themselves over Syria. China of course gives zero shits about human rights, so that shouldn't be surprising to anyone. The different stances are pretty interesting. I find China's opposition somehow less offensive than Russia's, simply because it's totally blanket, singleminded: They always vote against interfering in internal issues, no matter who we're talking about. They don't care what side the US or NATO are on. Russia, on the other hand, is just treating this as the world's deadliest pissing match. They support Assad primarily because NATO doesn't like him. China's opposition is cold and robotic. Russia's is childish and vindictive.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:55
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