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SexyBlindfold posted:sooo is this the endgame or what? all of a sudden the FSA is in control of the iraq/syria border and making gains in damascus It's really too early to tell, but it's certainly exciting.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:28
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Lots of different rumors about Manas Tlaff returning to Damascus after his "vacation" to France...
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Jul 19, 2012 21:40
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MothraAttack posted:Lots of different rumors about Manas Tlaff returning to Damascus after his "vacation" to France... Dude's setting himself up as some sort of Syrian DeGaule, isn't he?
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Jul 19, 2012 21:43
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Young Freud posted:Dude's setting himself up as some sort of Syrian DeGaule, isn't he? If DeGaule was a former Nazi Official then yes.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:44
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Zeroisanumber posted:It's really too early to tell, but it's certainly exciting. Exciting is a really depraved way to describe a bloody civil war. This war is a tragedy and nothing good will come of it.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:44
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Authorman posted:Exciting is a really depraved way to describe a bloody civil war. This war is a tragedy and nothing good will come of it. "Nothing good will come of it" implies the status quo was better; most people would say the fall of the Assad regime is "something good." What follows is unpredictable chaos, but at least it won't involve the Assads.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:47
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Authorman posted:Exciting is a really depraved way to describe a bloody civil war. This war is a tragedy and nothing good will come of it. Removing a murderous dictator who has been conducting full scale military operations on cities full of civilians: Not a good thing.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:48
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Young Freud posted:Dude's setting himself up as some sort of Syrian DeGaule, isn't he? More like Darlan.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:49
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Tlaff is most likely returning to his death or imprisonment at this rate (if he's really returning at all), especially following reports the FSA have seized some air force intelligence buildings and blocked the highway to Homs.
MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 21:53
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Some of the longer term impacts of this are going to be pretty interesting just in terms of the precidents being set, although some of them are not being set for the first time, but just cemented further. The responsibility to protect is pretty much dead, the reset button looks more foolish than ever and the UNSC is more broken than ever. I certainly hope this comes to an end soon, because the region really can't afford Syria to turn into a failed state. Edit: I'm guessing the 120 tanks thing from yesterday never really happened since we haven't heard anything more. Not to mention 120 tanks would be a logistical nightmare for the FSA right now.
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Jul 19, 2012 21:54
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J33uk posted:The responsibility to protect is pretty much dead
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Jul 19, 2012 22:02
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Wait, I thought Tlass defected?
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Jul 19, 2012 22:06
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Volkerball posted:Edit: Truthers in Syria Ugarit just posted this. quote:Regime forces deployed Republican Guard units in the capital and shelled many central neighbourhoods with helicopters, while heavy clashes were reported all over the capital. State-run media outlets reported the news of the assassination of members of the cell tasked with tackling the revolution in an explosion that targeted their meeting hall today. However, the demise of the members of the cell was confirmed late May, and the announcement came only to justify the shelling of the capital, and to urge pro-regime sectarian militias to take to the streets. Pro-regime militias did answer the call and have started attacking civilians in anti-Assad neighbourhoods; more than 34 civilians so far. I'll wait for some more info before I buy it, but between State media being so quick to break the story in its entirety, the new Minister of Defense being named right off the bat, and the earlier report from the CNN reporter in Damascus, it's possible those men could have been dead for a while. VVVV I think both Iraq and Rwanda are on a much better road into the future than they would be had the status quo been maintained. It's not so much the removal of a tyrant as it is creating an environment where reform and change are possible that really has the benefit. Obviously it's no silver bullet, and things certainly can get worse, but at least the Syrian/Rwandan/Iraqi people are the ones molding it, not some deranged maniacs who have no connection with their people. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 22:07
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Golbez posted:"Nothing good will come of it" implies the status quo was better; most people would say the fall of the Assad regime is "something good." What follows is unpredictable chaos, but at least it won't involve the Assads. The status quo before the revolution will still be better than what comes after for quite some time. Before Assad turned his guns on his people Syria was not a war torn hellhole. Before he butchered his own people there was no danger of religious and ethnic minorities being 'cleansed'. Volkerball posted:Removing a murderous dictator who has been conducting full scale military operations on cities full of civilians: Not a good thing. Does Saddam Hussein's being brought to justice alone make up for the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq? Does the removal of Hutu Power in Rwanda alone make up for many Hutus being ethnically cleansed in return and the many millions subsequently killed in the Congo? Have post-war Iraq or post-genocide Rwanda been good things or could it be that something more than removal of a tyrant is needed for it to not continue to be a tragedy. Authorman fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 22:10
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Re: the inside job: Remotely possible but utterly brazen. I read a report from one witness nearby who did hear explosions, though, and they speculated it occurred in a secured bunker. And yeah, Tlaff defected and had some scathing things to say about Assad, but now some people are reporting a mysterious return. Who knows if this is just propaganda or if we're seeing a "Saif reappears!" type situation.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:13
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Authorman posted:Before he butchered his own people there was no danger of religious and ethnic minorities being 'cleansed'. I still look at it this way: There are three options: * Evil dictator stays; things stay bad. * Evil dictator goes; things get worse. * Evil dictator goes; things get better. Seeing as how only one of the three allows for things to get better, I (as a white privileged blah blah blah  ) see it better to get rid of the dictator and deal with the following chaos than allow him to sit there for another 40 years and then continue the dynasty.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:21
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Perhaps all of them are bad and no matter what the war would still be a tragedy and people shouldn't be busting out the popcorn and kicking back to watch this generation's version of CNN Gulf War coverage.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:25
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J33uk posted:Edit: I'm guessing the 120 tanks thing from yesterday never really happened since we haven't heard anything more. Not to mention 120 tanks would be a logistical nightmare for the FSA right now. Of course it didn't happen, it'd be an entire tank regiment and that wouldn't just be a footnote in the twitter feed. One third of a tank division's gear falling into rebel hands, whether they could use them or not, would be a huge event if only for them being able to sabotage them out of order. These rumours of war seldom are precise or accurate. One claim from Wednesday made by a rebel commander was that a helicopter was shot down in a Damascus suburb, but when a reporter asked the local activists from that urb, they knew nothing about it. So who knows. Maybe a helicopter was shot down somewhere, it doesn't sound too unlikely, but rumours as vague as that are hard to either verify or deny.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:27
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Authorman posted:The status quo before the revolution will still be better than what comes after for quite some time. Before Assad turned his guns on his people Syria was not a war torn hellhole. Before he butchered his own people there was no danger of religious and ethnic minorities being 'cleansed'. Ah yes, pre-revolution Syria. An idyllic country in which the majority of the country could eke out a meager living while the state, organized around a single kleptocratic family and run by a single sect, grew fat and rich. Where citizens rested comfortably knowing that the rubber-stamp single-party parliament did its best to enforce the whims of its leader for life, and be doubly assured that those who ran afoul of him would be (at least) beaten, jailed and tortured, if not much, much more. You're forgetting that the responsibility for ALL of these hosed up and horrible events associated with the uprising lies with Assad. When this thing started, people weren't immediately resorting to violence or demanding that he step down- only some very modest political and economic reforms. Assad met their demands with force, and after months of demonstrations being raked with machine gun fire, someone finally decided it was time to start shooting back. You're also forgetting that authoritarian regimes stoke or suppress sectarianism to their own benefit. Assad portrayed himself as some sort of watchful guardian over sectarianism because it basically put the survival of religious/ethnic minorities in connection with his own. This is not new- look at how Mubarak treated the Copts in Egypt, or Saddam's relationship with the Sunnis/Shia', etc. This entire "apres mois, le deluge" style of governing is a tired play out of a worn book, and only underscores the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of those who think "stability" is the only thing a society can aspire to. If you asked your average anti-government Syrian if they could go back to that "stability," I doubt few would take you up on it. At least now they're acting as actual interested parties in their own future- a shame that it had to happen through force of arms since Assad was so intransigent as not to reform on his own.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:28
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What's not undeniable is that tanks are rolling in to the city and the regime has given civilians a 48-hour assault on the rebels warning.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:28
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Perhaps when trying to work out whether or not the status quo in a country is so terrible that it's worth risking full blown civil war to change, the principle res ipsa loquitor applies.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:29
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Tlass' return to Syria was reported earlier today and his brother in Paris said it was false, so unless someone has something solid it's still up in the air. I've put together a new post with videos about activists handling UXO, the silly geese!
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Jul 19, 2012 22:29
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Authorman posted:Perhaps all of them are bad and no matter what the war would still be a tragedy and people shouldn't be busting out the popcorn and kicking back to watch this generation's version of CNN Gulf War coverage. Tell that to an Egyptian. It's only a terrible tragedy if they died in vain. These people are fighting and dying for a cause they believe in, and you're making GBS threads all over them because you feel it's not worth it. IF the Assad regime falls, and IF 20, 40, 50 years from now, that revolution results in a government that the Syrian people firmly believe in as a whole that benefits them all, then those people will be remembered as the heroes who shaped the nation. That's what I'M watching. You can discredit them for inciting war with a government they disagreed with, and you can discredit us for making a point to stay informed about developments in the area, but it's grossly out of touch with reality.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:37
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Authorman posted:Perhaps all of them are bad and no matter what the war would still be a tragedy and people shouldn't be busting out the popcorn and kicking back to watch this generation's version of CNN Gulf War coverage. So if all the options are lovely I'll take the one with the chance for any change whatsoever. What is the preferred snack for watching an evil regime fall, if not popcorn? Pizza? Go native and eat hummus?
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Jul 19, 2012 22:39
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Volkerball posted:You can discredit them for inciting war with a government they disagreed with, and you can discredit us for making a point to stay informed about developments in the area, but it's grossly out of touch with reality. Well then it's a good thing nobody's doing either of those things. You know you can admit that a civil war is a tragedy without condemning its participants, right?
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Jul 19, 2012 22:43
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Golbez posted:So if all the options are lovely I'll take the one with the chance for any change whatsoever. Get some Lebanese Taverna. One of my Syrian friends always said Lebanese food is just Syrian food with better marketing.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:45
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Popular revolts don't always resolve all issues so that everyone can live happily ever after, just look at Iran. This doesn't mean that the thousands of Persians who died to oust Pahlavi did so in vain, but it's just as hard to imagine their current form of government being a lasting arrangement as it is to imagine the clerics giving up their authority peacefully.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:55
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suboptimal posted:You're forgetting that the responsibility for ALL of these hosed up and horrible events associated with the uprising lies with Assad. Of course they do, when did I say otherwise? This is a tragedy that he started and no matter the outcome Syria has been and will continue to be hosed. I am not laying judgement on Syrian rebels doing what they have to do to survive nor am I spitting on their democratic aspirations. The status quo of not civil war will always be better than civil war, but guess what sometimes people get their choices made for them. My posts have been directed at war cheerleaders like zeroisanumber and golbez who are treating coverage of the war as gladiatorial matches being played out personally for them, like Band of Brothers but for realsies. The type of posts that if you played around with the subjects wouldn't look out of place in a tviv thread. Volkerball posted:That's what I'M watching. It's not TV, it's HBO. Golbez posted:So if all the options are lovely I'll take the one with the chance for any change whatsoever. You AREN'T taking the option. No matter how many times you retweet those awesome pictures of blown up bodies or post NATO afteractions to your facebook wall, you are not part of the revolution. Your tribalism is demeaning to everyone involved and supporting blue team over red team even when red team has killed way more people still does not make you moral.
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Jul 19, 2012 22:56
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^^^^^Cleared up. Yes, Syria is hosed, but at least this route presents a path to get unfucked. Juffo-Wup posted:Well then it's a good thing nobody's doing either of those things. You know you can admit that a civil war is a tragedy without condemning its participants, right? Yeah, I get that, and I put terrible before tragedy to kind of sidestep that, admittedly poorly. If I'm taking this out of context and strawmanning, I'll stand corrected, but quote:The status quo before the revolution will still be better than what comes after for quite some time. Before Assad turned his guns on his people Syria was not a war torn hellhole. Before he butchered his own people there was no danger of religious and ethnic minorities being 'cleansed'. Authorman posted:Perhaps all of them are bad and no matter what the war would still be a tragedy and people shouldn't be busting out the popcorn and kicking back to watch this generation's version of CNN Gulf War coverage. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 22:56
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Authorman posted:You AREN'T taking the option. No matter how many times you retweet those awesome pictures of blown up bodies or post NATO afteractions to your facebook wall, you are not part of the revolution. Your tribalism is demeaning to everyone involved and supporting blue team over red team even when red team has killed way more people still does not make you moral. I'm sure this paragraph makes sense, but not in any dimension I'm aware of.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:03
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These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated....oh wait, no, never mind, turns out you should just roll over for the regime because revolutions are too messy. Don't worry about all your dead friends, I'm sure they'd be cool with it, they probably wouldn't want you to make a fuss anyway.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:04
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I don't know how you guys can TV/IV this, it's an international nightmare. This is really bad for US/China/Russia relations, and it seems like things will get a lot more violent before this is over. As for morality, it really does break down when you are living in a world where "might is right" rules supreme. Most individuals are spared from a reality grounded on that rule, but nation-states exist by it. Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 23:05
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If/when Assad is ousted , does anyone else think it will be another situation like Egypt where the military takes control? Yes, Egypt had free elections and are drafting a new constitution but the military still has a huge influence. Basically, do you think that the military will take over in the interim like Egypt with possible Russian support. I think the big key thing here is Russia as I could see them backing a regime with military support.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:08
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Hollis posted:If/when Assad is ousted , does anyone else think it will be another situation like Egypt where the military takes control? Yes, Egypt had free elections and are drafting a new constitution but the military still has a huge influence. Syria isn't Egypt. Egyptians are fairly unified as "Egyptians", with the protests that toppled Mubarak being The Regime/Military vs the People (there were acts of solidarity between Christians and Different Muslim Sects). In Syria power is more tied with ethnicity and there has been less solidarity.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:12
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Volkerball posted:It sounds like he thinks the smart thing to do would've been to continue under Assad's regime without standing up, and since they didn't do so, The smart thing to do would be to not kill innocent protesters. Assad didn't do the smart thing and he is going to lose his political position and likely his life. And because he did a dumb thing thousands of people have lost their lives and potentially thousands more will continue to, if Alawites become a targeted minority because of their association with the regime. The protesters had no reasonable suspicion that peacefully protesting would result in thousands of deaths and a civil war. Unlike what you really seem to want me to believe no blame can fall on them.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:14
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Hollis posted:If/when Assad is ousted , does anyone else think it will be another situation like Egypt where the military takes control? Yes, Egypt had free elections and are drafting a new constitution but the military still has a huge influence. There will be a junta. If Tlass is returning from France, I am guessing he is likely optimistic he can lead it, if Assad is cast down / killed. The disenfranchised incumbent military would look for familiar leadership.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:16
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McDowell posted:Syria isn't Egypt. Which is somewhat amusing, since they were for a short time the same country.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:22
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The latest video from the FSAHelp channel, how to make a flamethrower https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azsncjYRTuw
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Jul 19, 2012 23:24
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Brown Moses posted:The latest video from the FSAHelp channel, how to make a flamethrower How relevant/closely attached is the FSAHelp to what organisation exists in the armed groups? Because flamethrowers are what you build if you are expecting to be caught up in really intense building-to-building urban combat.
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Jul 19, 2012 23:36
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McDowell posted:Syria isn't Egypt. Egyptians are fairly unified as "Egyptians", with the protests that toppled Mubarak being The Regime/Military vs the People (there were acts of solidarity between Christians and Different Muslim Sects). In Syria power is more tied with ethnicity and there has been less solidarity. There's also been limited dissent in Egypt as a result. There's been a little bit of fear-mongering about the Muslim Brotherhood being too religiously extremist, but all in all, the country seems to be pretty firmly behind Morsi, and he's been given some breathing room to move forward. I don't think this will be the case in Syria. I doubt the honeymoon will last nearly as long because with so many different groups of people with so many different expectations, it's going to be extremely difficult to appease all of them without stepping on any toes. Syria has the highest potential of any Arab Spring nation yet to follow up their revolution with another one against the interim government. It's not going to be enough to say, "OK, these guys are in charge now." Authorman posted:The smart thing to do would be to not kill innocent protesters. Assad didn't do the smart thing and he is going to lose his political position and likely his life. And because he did a dumb thing thousands of people have lost their lives and potentially thousands more will continue to, if Alawites become a targeted minority because of their association with the regime. Not trying to misinterpret your beliefs. Legitimate misunderstanding until you clarified. I agree, though I hope the Alawites won't get a target painted on their back. Not optimistic about it after seeing the fighting somehow consistently get more and more brutal, and az jan jananam has brought up the level of hatred for the Alawites that is present in some segments of the FSA several times. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 23:37
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