|
Capt.Whorebags posted:So Scromo has just announced that we're receiving 4 million extra Pfizer doses from UK in the next month. Along with the 0.5m from Singapore, maybe the odds are in fact shortening for an election in the next couple of months. He will go with a narrative of "on track for re-opening" or similar with the usual "don't change horses now" crap. He'll "open the country up" then quickly roll an election to ride the sudden high as boomers and tradies are allowed to slam pints of tooheys and have bets on "the dogs" in the sports bar.
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 16:00 |
|
|
so what do we do when in two (or six) months when the vaccines have worn off? the stuff coming out of israel seems to indicate that this 'well, screw it, open it up' plan will just kick us in the teeth soon anyway. the lockdown sucks and i'm losing my mind but i don't think this is the right way forward. do we just keep getting boosters every 2-3 months? do vulnerable people who can't get vaccinated or have lung issues or whatever just have to kind of deal with it?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:34
|
|
|
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/infections-up-but-hospitalisations-down-britain-s-post-vax-hopes-20210831-p58nnd.html UK is a guide to what's coming if it'd open it all up. Deaths and hospitalisations are way down sure because of 80% vaccination rate of all eligible but still got 100 people dying a day. Thats..... twice a bad flu season maybe for the UK? Also factor into this that AstroZenica looks like reduces efficacy very slowly if at all and within two months is in fact better than Pfizer long term and the UK was mostly AZ CAT INTERCEPTOR fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Sep 3, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:45
|
|
|
it's fine I'm sure we'll build extra capacity into our health system to deal with it so there will be no flow on effects
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:47
|
|
|
Horizon Burning posted:so what do we do when in two (or six) months when the vaccines have worn off? the stuff coming out of israel seems to indicate that this 'well, screw it, open it up' plan will just kick us in the teeth soon anyway. the lockdown sucks and i'm losing my mind but i don't think this is the right way forward. do we just keep getting boosters every 2-3 months? do vulnerable people who can't get vaccinated or have lung issues or whatever just have to kind of deal with it? This is my biggest concern- By the time "everyone" is vaxxed, what about those (like myself) who were in the first intake? We're gonna be forever chasing this thing round and round playing catch up.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:49
|
|
|
StrangeThing posted:I agree. curious as to why zero deaths is unrealistic when states outside of nsw and vic seem to be handling it just fine?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:51
|
|
|
The things is, the problem is, and bear with me here, but, the issue is really that all these questions are too hard and I think I speak for all of us here when I say we all want to leave the house, and also I don't loving care about the edge cases like the immunocompromised, children, waning immunity, etc because, and I'm going to tie this back into where I began, because all that's just too hard to deal with.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 04:53
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:curious as to why zero deaths is unrealistic when states outside of nsw and vic seem to be handling it just fine? Two-week quarantines to cross state borders is not a realistic long-term solution.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:07
|
|
|
Horizon Burning posted:so what do we do when in two (or six) months when the vaccines have worn off? the stuff coming out of israel seems to indicate that this 'well, screw it, open it up' plan will just kick us in the teeth soon anyway. the lockdown sucks and i'm losing my mind but i don't think this is the right way forward. do we just keep getting boosters every 2-3 months? do vulnerable people who can't get vaccinated or have lung issues or whatever just have to kind of deal with it? They (probably) don't "wear off" entirely - the recent studies suggest Pfizer's protection against symptomatic illness wears down, but they should still be effective at largely preventing hospitalisation. CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/infections-up-but-hospitalisations-down-britain-s-post-vax-hopes-20210831-p58nnd.html Pretty much bang on - UK averages about 40-something flu deaths per year if you smooth it out across the whole year. But flu deaths don't happen smoothly across the year, they're largely clustered in winter, and the fact that the UK is recording this many deaths at what should be the safest time of year doesn't bode well for four months' time. CelestialScribe posted:Two-week quarantines to cross state borders is not a realistic long-term solution. Not just two week quarantines, but constant snap lockdowns whenever a case trickles through, which will happen more and more frequently once NSW and Victoria open up and start seeing much higher case numbers.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:20
|
|
|
freebooter posted:But flu deaths don't happen smoothly across the year, they're largely clustered in winter, and the fact that the UK is recording this many deaths at what should be the safest time of year doesn't bode well for four months' time. Hopefully this might one thing in our favor - a slightly seasonal aspect coming into summer may slightly curtail spread and buy us time to vaccinate before next winter. Not a race though.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:27
|
|
|
freebooter posted:They (probably) don't "wear off" entirely - the recent studies suggest Pfizer's protection against symptomatic illness wears down, but they should still be effective at largely preventing hospitalisation. what's the definition of symptomatic illness? there's so much crap to wade through online that it's hard to find stuff that isn't being pushed by weird q-types. the stuff i'm curious about is how it relates to the weird issues one can get from covid. the brain and organ symptoms, etc. sure, people might not be ending up in hospital, but if everyone's wandering around asymptomatically while carrying something that might still mess you up for a very long time in unexpected ways, that you might carry unknowingly (or over-confidently) to vulnerable friends and family, well...
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:34
|
|
|
Horizon Burning posted:what's the definition of symptomatic illness?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:37
|
|
|
Odds for a 2021 election is a 4 to 1 bet. FYI Scomo winning the leadership spill was a 10 to 1 bet versus Dutton, Bishop.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:40
|
|
|
Good Crikey piece on the division between the locked down states and the free states: https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/09/03/two-counries-border-closures/ Horizon Burning posted:what's the definition of symptomatic illness? there's so much crap to wade through online that it's hard to find stuff that isn't being pushed by weird q-types. the stuff i'm curious about is how it relates to the weird issues one can get from covid. the brain and organ symptoms, etc. sure, people might not be ending up in hospital, but if everyone's wandering around asymptomatically while carrying something that might still mess you up for a very long time in unexpected ways, that you might carry unknowingly (or over-confidently) to vulnerable friends and family, well... You're not going to get long COVID unless you also get symptomatic illness, I think. And it's unusual in the first place. I agree that it's not ideal. I don't want to catch the loving thing whether I'm vaccinated or not. Unfortunately in the long run it doesn't seem like we'll have a choice.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 05:44
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:curious as to why zero deaths is unrealistic when states outside of nsw and vic seem to be handling it just fine? The only possible way that can happen is extreme lockdowns at the mere hint of an infection and a worldwide eradication of Covid. Which - in this case use VIC as an example rather than the clusterfuck of NSW and just LOLNO to worldwide eradication - still may not work because Delta is proven to be pretty good at escaping and wont be acceptable once a large proportion of the population is vaccinated. Zero deaths wont happen quote:what's the definition of symptomatic illness? Quick and not exactly great definition - illness that affects the person with detectable symptoms. quote:they should still be effective at largely preventing hospitalisation. So far I'm not aware of any real evidence effectiveness in keeping people out of hospital wanes to any real degree. Pfizer and AstroZenica are both over 90% efficacy for that. For being vaccinated I suspect the real issue would be long covid and so far.... doesnt really look like thats a thing for vaccinated people? quote:I agree that it's not ideal. I don't want to catch the loving thing whether I'm vaccinated or not. Unfortunately in the long run it doesn't seem like we'll have a choice. CAT INTERCEPTOR fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Sep 3, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:00
|
|
|
StrangeThing posted:Sure. But it's unrealistic, and will decimate the tourism industry. That's a real thing to consider. Mate, two words: plague resorts.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:33
|
|
|
CelestialScribe posted:Two-week quarantines to cross state borders is not a realistic long-term solution. why not? it works to protect people, if you've got an urgent need to cross (or are an elite footballer lol) you can get an exemption. it's inconvenient for travel but there's nothing stopping that being the new normal. why is it always that the new normal involves the vulnerable dying rather than an inconvenience to the wealthy? 
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:43
|
|
|
Interstate commerce is mostly either train or truck. Just have them switch the engine/cab at the border with no human interaction with the incoming people. Then the drivers who were bringing goods in turn around and leave, while the "clean" drivers take the goods the rest of the way. Or to the next border, where the process occurs again. EDIT: and, of course, the leaving drivers take the poo poo which was being delivered into their state so they aren't just driving back without a load. Megillah Gorilla fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Sep 3, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:48
|
|
|
Freight by giant cable car networks No humans required.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:51
|
|
|
just launch the freight out of a cannon from one city to the next samurai pizza cats style
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 06:54
|
|
|
Solemn Sloth posted:just launch the freight out of a cannon from one city to the next samurai pizza cats style
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:05
|
|
|
Let's get some Elon hyperloops in AU ayythatbastardken posted:curious as to why zero deaths is unrealistic when states outside of nsw and vic seem to be handling it just fine? I would like to visit my family in WA as a fully vacced Victorian over Christmas without having to quarantine
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:07
|
|
|
freebooter posted:And I'm pretty sure this is exactly what will happen. It doesn't matter what was "agreed to" at national cabinet, none of that's binding. The states have acted independently all throughout the pandemic and that's not about to change now. Yeah. That agreement was made as a bragging point for Scotty at the time he was backslapping Gladys for refusing to lockdown Sydney, a stance which had already aged like milk within a couple of weeks of the meeting.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:07
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:why is it always that the new normal involves the vulnerable dying *polkadot man voice* god i hope we do
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:07
|
|
|
hanyolo posted:
ok, how many dead people is that visit worth? 1? 10? 100?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:09
|
|
|
Megillah Gorilla posted:Interstate commerce is mostly either train or truck. That would be incredibly impractical to try and organize at scale unfortunately for a whole bunch of reasons.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:13
|
|
|
What if we created a city out of garbage in the middle of the outback and put all the unvaccinated people there?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:14
|
|
|
Periphery posted:What if we created a city out of garbage in the middle of the outback and put all the unvaccinated people there? ah, mr deputy pm. welcome to the forums.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:15
|
|
|
Periphery posted:What if we created a city out of garbage in the middle of the outback and put all the unvaccinated people there? No need. We already have facilities built on a number of neighbouring islands.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:18
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:why not? it works to protect people, if you've got an urgent need to cross (or are an elite footballer lol) you can get an exemption. it's inconvenient for travel but there's nothing stopping that being the new normal. The many cross border communities might have a different perspective on this?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:25
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:ok, how many dead people is that visit worth? 1? 10? 100? When everyone has had the opportunity to vaccinate, then whatever the number ends up being among the unvaccinated.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:26
|
|
|
hanyolo posted:When everyone has had the opportunity to vaccinate, then whatever the number ends up being among the unvaccinated. So that includes people who cant vaccinate for valid medical reasons?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:28
|
|
|
NPR Journalizard posted:So that includes people who cant vaccinate for valid medical reasons? Seems like that will be the case. A fully vaxxed person has done everything they can before they travel interstate. Testing on departure and arrival is fine too.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:34
|
|
|
Bill Posters posted:The many cross border communities might have a different perspective on this? they can pick a side and stick with it hanyolo posted:Seems like that will be the case. A fully vaxxed person has done everything they can before they travel interstate. Testing on departure and arrival is fine too. estimates are ~5% of the population are immunosuppressed at any given time (mostly cancer patients). why do they deserve to die for your family holiday?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:46
|
|
|
CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/infections-up-but-hospitalisations-down-britain-s-post-vax-hopes-20210831-p58nnd.html My AZ blood is so thick delta can't break through.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:53
|
|
|
thatbastardken posted:they can pick a side and stick with it That's how we do it for all other things we vaccinate against? Should WA close their border everytime they detect someone with the flu, hepatitis, etc?
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 07:59
|
|
|
Periphery posted:And that's why it's important that people ask the politicians what level of death is acceptable. start with the federal and nsw cabinets
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 08:00
|
|
|
hanyolo posted:That's how we do it for all other things we vaccinate against? Should WA close their border everytime they detect someone with the flu, hepatitis, etc? yes
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 08:07
|
|
|
hanyolo posted:That's how we do it for all other things we vaccinate against? Should WA close their border everytime they detect someone with the flu, hepatitis, etc? those things aren't as contagious as covid, and hell, maybe they should.
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 08:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 16:00 |
|
|
Senor Tron posted:That would be incredibly impractical to try and organize at scale unfortunately for a whole bunch of reasons. no similar argument against giant cannon, i note
|
|
#
?
Sep 3, 2021 08:12
|
|