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Gibberish
Sep 17, 2002

by R. Guyovich
You're going in hard on that Iowa Caucus Cruz NO

I respect that

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Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Tell me how to make money...

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
My thread is so ugly now ugh

Memories though :h:

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

a cop posted:

Tell me how to make money...
  • Deposit money on site
  • wait for media frenzy
  • dispassionately analyze situation
  • bet against the frenzy
  • Profit

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Necc0 posted:

My thread is so ugly now ugh

Memories though :h:

Someone posted in the republican primary thread, just adblock "/css/rfa.css?1408492538" on "forums.somethingawful.com"

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

For this advice, please give me your hot picks, after you make them, so that I may piggyback.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

a cop posted:

Tell me how to make money...

When in doubt bet on Trump and against Jeb!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Hot pick: bet against Rand on all the minor states where there isn't much money. You can get Noes for 80-95c. Bet against him for second place, too. There are still a few believers out there. Even if there aren't Yes orders out, they will occasionally show up and fill hundreds at a time, so putting your own No orders up top can pay off anytime a Paulbot decides to cash in their purestrain/bitcoin.

You won't make a ton but it's a guaranteed return.

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Safe betting there. And you can safely replace Paul with Sanders in just about any state south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
My portfolio is pretty evenly mixed between Sanders NO - guaranteed 500 bucks, Cruz NO - possibly 500 bucks, and Christie DROPOUT - highly unlikely but if it hits, lots of bucks.


What I'm saying is diversify. Sanders NO is like a treasury bill, put all the money you can't lose in it.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

pathetic little tramp posted:

What I'm saying is diversify.

Yup. I'm involved in ten separate markets right now, but that may be my limit. Getting harder to keep track of everything.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

If Hillary doesn't win Iowa I'm all wiped out..

huge pile of hamburger
Nov 4, 2009
of all the other markets that you can make easier and less risky money on, why the gently caress would you blow your wad on iowa

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

watwat posted:

of all the other markets that you can make easier and less risky money on, why the gently caress would you blow your wad on iowa

I thought it was a sure thing!!! /Help!

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

a cop posted:

I thought it was a sure thing!!! /Help!

You should have bought for like Florida or Massachusetts, is Super Tuesday/after super tuesday markets are open.

huge pile of hamburger
Nov 4, 2009

a cop posted:

I thought it was a sure thing!!! /Help!

sell now and get in the obama approval market

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
I don't really get why you would sell your shares on a confident bet instead of keeping them and cashing out at $1.00? It's fun to read this thread but I could never actually bet money because I clearly don't understand how the market works.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

a cop posted:

I thought it was a sure thing!!! /Help!

The perils of taking adar's advice...

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

FourLeaf posted:

I don't really get why you would sell your shares on a confident bet instead of keeping them and cashing out at $1.00? It's fun to read this thread but I could never actually bet money because I clearly don't understand how the market works.

Confidence is relative. There are some instances where you're near-certain on a market's outcome, but most of the time you can still be surprised. Taking profits early cuts out the risk.

Other times you don't want to wait five months or whatever for a market to close so you take a small hit on your profits to get the money back early (and make more money in the meantime).

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

a cop posted:

I thought it was a sure thing!!! /Help!

yeah just read this thread for mad money hot stock tips. few weeks ago some berners were driving down hillary's arkansas price so there was a bunch of free money there. it's mostly a waiting game

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

FourLeaf posted:

I don't really get why you would sell your shares on a confident bet instead of keeping them and cashing out at $1.00? It's fun to read this thread but I could never actually bet money because I clearly don't understand how the market works.

I call it the 'heart attack' margin. If a market is largely resolved and I'm sitting above $.95 I'll sell just because those last pennies aren't worth the odds of someone keeling over from a heart attack or whatever. That and it's better to take the majority of your money earned early so that you can turn it around into other bets and make even more money.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Necc0 posted:

I call it the 'heart attack' margin. If a market is largely resolved and I'm sitting above $.95 I'll sell just because those last pennies aren't worth the odds of someone keeling over from a heart attack or whatever. That and it's better to take the majority of your money earned early so that you can turn it around into other bets and make even more money.

After I lost a couple hundred of my Bidenbux on CNN rolling over to let Fiorina into a debate after confirming and announcing that she had not qualified, the heart attacks feel like they're waiting around every corner.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
I should change the thread title to 'One in the Hand > Two in the Bush'

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

BTW, you can still get Rand Iowa Winner Noes at 95c a pop. 5% gain in two weeks is... Reasonable!

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Necc0 posted:

I should change the thread title to 'One in the Hand > Two in the Bush'

One in the Rand > Two in the Bush

Commie NedFlanders
Mar 8, 2014

Vox Nihili posted:

BTW, you can still get Rand Iowa Winner Noes at 95c a pop. 5% gain in two weeks is... Reasonable!

50% gain is reasonably nice

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Commie NedFlanders posted:

50% gain is reasonably nice

Yeah but where can I find that??

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

Vox Nihili posted:

Yeah but where can I find that??
Hillary YES in Iowa.

Seriously a cop: A lot can happen, and will happen, in the next twelve days. Polls galore will rain down upon us. The market goes into panic mode the day of elections and that may get you a price you can live with.

Trump markets are super fun. When you shake the Hillary albatross you should get into that.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

I'm still holding onto my Cruz YES shares in Iowa and betting on what is supposed to be a superior ground game, so that's how I'm planning on doubling my money, although it has been a tough week for me. And why no Iowa polls for over a week? How long does it take to call a few hundred people up and tell me what they said?

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Zeta Taskforce posted:

I'm still holding onto my Cruz YES shares in Iowa and betting on what is supposed to be a superior ground game, so that's how I'm planning on doubling my money, although it has been a tough week for me. And why no Iowa polls for over a week? How long does it take to call a few hundred people up and tell me what they said?
I bought in with Cruz the Ooze. Ground game.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Also polls and news cycles are fleeting. Cruz is well-entrenched there and I expect (uhh, hope) that he's due for one more bounce before the voting begins. But the main thing is ground game and getting asses to the precincts.

I suspect the market is reacting positively to Trump because of the Palin endorsement. But a general rule of politics is that endorsements and running mates cannot help you with voters -- they can either hurt you or have no effect. You'll get a quick bounce but then it dissipates. And in the end when Palin ran as veep it might have ultimately hurt McCain slightly, though I think there's some debate about that.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Oh God lmao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7irdneFZQFk

Y'all are right. They really are betting money on what they read at Infowars and hear on AM talk radio.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Omi-Polari posted:

Oh God lmao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7irdneFZQFk

Y'all are right. They really are betting money on what they read at Infowars and hear on AM talk radio.
What the gently caress is this? PredictIt Fox News?

edit nope literally InfoWars, you weren't joking

i say swears online has issued a correction as of 17:42 on Jan 21, 2016

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

Omi-Polari posted:

Oh God lmao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7irdneFZQFk

Y'all are right. They really are betting money on what they read at Infowars and hear on AM talk radio.

Its up to 23 views. How much of that is us?

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Now, that being said, my political predictions are usually wrong.

But Merkel staying on in 2016 seems like a pretty safe bet.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Dumped my ~1200 Cruz Iowa noes over the past 12 hours. Averaged probably 8c in profit a share. It's been fun, but I'm not sticking around to see this one out.

Commie NedFlanders
Mar 8, 2014

Betting for unlikely things is a good strategy too if there's a long time frame and you can buy shares at less than 5 cents.

Like even something nearly impossible will fluctuate prices, if you buy thousands of shares of "aliens invade earth" at 3 cents and put an open offer to sell at 5 cents, you can just sit and wait and at some point some dummies will push up r price and you make a cool 66% profit

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Vox Nihili posted:

Dumped my ~1200 Cruz Iowa noes over the past 12 hours. Averaged probably 8c in profit a share. It's been fun, but I'm not sticking around to see this one out.

Agreed, I'm seeing if I can get to 10c profit a share, but Iowa still has the potential to get funky just because of the caucus system. The polls we're already seeing are tracking his decline, but will that decline be severe enough by the next set of polls?

Commie NedFlanders
Mar 8, 2014

Watching right wing garbage media is a good way to measure the group psychology and beliefs and expectations of morons with too much spending money.

If you know how right wingers think, it's easy to bet against their stupid reactions to things

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

:siren: Pay attention to your poo poo!!

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