Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Security forces killed 2 people in eastern Saudi Arabia yesterday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-saudi-shiite-deaths-idUSBRE88Q05920120927

tekz posted:

imagine asking friends and families of 9/11 victims how unbiased they are towards Al-Qaeda.

That's sort of the point. It gives the perception of a very specific group of people.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 11:55

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 11:07

Red7: Sep 10, 2008

Xandu posted:

This collection should have been outsourced to a Pakistani organization capable of conducting research in FATA. Women should have been used (and trained, if necessary) to ensure data could be collected from women.

That literally is the The Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy's "Drone Attacks�A Survey" paper which has unfortunately disappeared from the internet.

The CIA's Covert Predator Drone War in Pakistan, 2004�2010: The History of an Assassination Campaign posted:

But in the spring of 2009 a poll was carried out in the targeted FATA tribal area
by the Pakistani-based Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy that was to
change the debate. The responses were extraordinary and not what the pollsters expected.
They clearly demonstrated that those who live in areas where the Taliban have closed
girls schools and cinemas, executed �adulterers� and �spies,� killed local chieftains, and
enforced strict Sharia law are more inclined to support the American drone strikes. Among
other unexpected results, the poll found that:

� Only 45 percent of those Pashtuns questioned felt that drone strikes brought fear and
terror to the common people.
� 52 percent of those questioned felt the strikes were accurate.
� 58 percent said the strikes did not cause anti-Americanism.
� 60 percent felt the militants were damaged by the strikes.
� 70 percent felt the Pakistanis should carry out strikes of their own against the
militants.

The pollsters also found that �The popular notion outside the Pakhtun (Pashtun) belt that
a large majority of the local population supports the Taliban movement lacks substance.�
Most importantly the study rejected the notion that the drone strikes are seen as a violation
of Pashtun lands or Pakistani sovereignty. On the contrary, one of the authors claimed �I
asked almost all those people if they see the US drone attacks on FATA as violation of
Pakistan�s sovereignty. More than two-third said they did not. The US is violating the
sovereignty of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, not of Pakistan.� An anthropologist involved in
the study claimed of the local Pashtuns, �they feel powerless toward the militants and they
see the drones as their liberator.�

The results of the poll, the first of its kind carried out in this region that has born the
brunt of the strikes, would seem to indicate that many Pashtun tribesmen welcomed the
strikes even if the rest of their countrymen did not. A similar study carried out by World
Public Opinion found that a whopping 86 percent of residents in the Pashtun-dominated
North West Frontier Province (NWFP) supported the Pakistani government while only six
percent supported the Taliban. This report also found that �NWFP respondents were more
likely than others to see local Taliban and Islamist militants as critical threats to Pakistan.
They were more inclined to see the Pakistani Taliban as holding a nationwide takeover as
an objective, and to see this as a real possibility.�

# ? Sep 27, 2012 12:17

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

Red7 posted:

That literally is the The Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy's "Drone Attacks�A Survey" paper which has unfortunately disappeared from the internet.

There might be a reason that it's disappeared: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011613931606455.html

quote:

As a matter of fact, the only known survey "on the ground in FATA" at the time was carried out by a "letterhead organisation" named the Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy whose conclusions can fairly be described as deeply unreliable and dubious. It claimed that 55 per cent of respondents in a survey it carried out in "parts of FATA that are often hit by American drones" (among which it curiously included Parachinar, which has never been hit and whose overwhelmingly Shia population is deeply hostile to the virulently anti-Shia Taliban) did not think that the attacks caused "fear and terror in the common people"; 52 per cent found them "accurate in their strikes"; and 58 per cent did not think they increased anti-Americanism.

The survey got much play in the media, quoted among others in both the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times. Its conclusions were found particularly agreeable by proponents of drone escalation and the label of an "institute" gave them an ostensibly academic pedigree. Few wondered why the survey's claims were so at odds with known public opinion in the wider region where, according to a Gallup/Al Jazeera poll conducted around the same period, only nine per cent of people showed support for the drone attacks. Those who did wonder, such as the journalists I spoke to in Peshawar, were universally dismissive. But the Institute had served its purpose and, typical of many LHOs, it vanished after a year (Web Archive shows that its website only existed between 2008-2009).

Ironically, Aryana's claims were discredited just a year later by a survey in FATA by an institution no less enthusiastic about the drones. A poll conducted by the NAF and Terror Free Tomorrow found that 76 per cent of respondents opposed the drone attacks; 40 per cent held the US most responsible for the violence in the region (as opposed to seven per cent for al-Qaeda and 11 per cent for the TTP); 59 per cent considered suicide attacks against the US forces justified; 48 per cent believed the drones mainly killed civilians (only 16 per cent thought otherwise); and 77 per cent said their opinion of the US would improve if it withdrew its forces (72 per cent if it brokered Middle East peace).

# ? Sep 27, 2012 12:25

Red7: Sep 10, 2008

haha, that might explain it then! The AIRRA web site is still around though, with the report on it now I've looked (or summary or something anyway...), even if it hasn't been updated since 2011.

Red7 fucked around with this message at 12:46 on Sep 27, 2012

# ? Sep 27, 2012 12:34

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

Red7 posted:

That literally is the The Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy's "Drone Attacks�A Survey" paper which has unfortunately disappeared from the internet.

I never saw the original paper, but considering it was a survey conducted in such a volatile area, I wonder what methodology and sampling techniques were used. Just glancing over the article, I have a suspicion this was not conducted in a scientifically viable manner. I'm not talking about the result summary, just the science behind it.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 12:37

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Today it's been reported that a "Syrian rebel chief abandons uprising", after a group of supposed FSA members defected back to the regime at a press conference in front of the tolerated opposition in Damascus. Unfortuantly when they were hiring the actors to play these opposition members they forgot one had already confessed to being a terrorist 6 months ago, and yet was back as a FSA commander rejoining the regime. I've blogged the details of it here.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 16:18

Pimpmust: Oct 1, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Today it's been reported that a "Syrian rebel chief abandons uprising", after a group of supposed FSA members defected back to the regime at a press conference in front of the tolerated opposition in Damascus. Unfortuantly when they were hiring the actors to play these opposition members they forgot one had already confessed to being a terrorist 6 months ago, and yet was back as a FSA commander rejoining the regime. I've blogged the details of it here.

Look at how wrong you are :colbert:

I heard from my dear intelligence community friends at the Guardian comment section that FSA members must be defecting in droves, scores higher than reported and that they suffer so large losses that the rebellion might in fact already be over - the western media is simply hiding the TRUTH and refusing to show BOTH SIDES of this conflict!

Russia Today every day!

Now after writing all that I'll just go out and shoot myself in the head for fun :suicide:

# ? Sep 27, 2012 16:56

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

If they're going to lie about something like that wouldn't it be useful to ensure a minimum baseline of competence from the people setting it up?

# ? Sep 27, 2012 16:58

Pimpmust: Oct 1, 2008

Speaking of the Guardian there's this up now on the Live article:

quote:

21m ago
FSA claims 'decisive' battle in Aleppo

The Free Syrian Army announces the start of the 'battle of determination' in the Syrian city of Aleppo #AlArabiya #Syria #Assad
27 Sep 12

Reply
Retweet
Favorite

The Free Syrian Army has announced the start of what it claims will be a "decisive" battle for Aleppo. Our colleague Mona Mahmood called Bashir al-Haji, commander of Tawheed brigade in Aleppo, via Skype, and asked him to explain. The sound of the shellfire could be heard as he spoke.

The decisive battle for Aleppo started at 4pm local time. We wanted to suprise the Syrian army which had started to creep forward towards the southern neighbourhoods. The Tawheed brigade was enticing the Syrian army forward to face all the fighting brigades in the city.

We have been reconsidering this a battle for a week. The plan to launch the battle today was top secret, and now the mosques in Aleppo are praying for the FSA.

There are 6,000 fighters of the Tawheed brigade taking part in the battle now, in addition to a few other brigades like al-Fatah and Ahfad al-Fatiheen for the Turkmen. We have prepared good ammunition for the battle, we have confiscated a lot of weapons from Masaken Hananou belonging to the Syrian army. We have Russian weapons used by the regime and we will use them against the Syrian army.

After every liberation of a military barracks, we confiscate weapons to attack the Syrian army � we are killing them with their [own] weapons. Though we wish that the Syrian army will fight on the ground we know that they will resort to aerial shelling to support their army. In fact, the planes have never stopped striking the city. They have been shelling for almost 24 hours and they get even more active if there is any action by the FSA.

He denied that the FSA had proclaimed "decisive" battles for Aleppo before.

We are not aiming to liberate the whole of Aleppo with this battle but to regain control of most of the city and get back as many neighbourhoods as we can.

It is a retaliation battle against regime's forces and to get a foothold at the centre of the city where there are security bases for the Syrian army. Fighters of the FSA are no longer scared of the planes, they are treating them now like guns.

We are doing our best to launch our attacks and battles in areas empty of civilians. We are helping civilians who need to get out of the site of fighting. We do not know how long the battle might last.

We only need anti-aircraft rockets to control the way from Aleppo to Damascus.

(emphasis mine)

The FSA seem to be cranking up the pressure a bit - or if nothing else, holding on for dear life.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:02

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Pureauthor posted:

If they're going to lie about something like that wouldn't it be useful to ensure a minimum baseline of competence from the people setting it up?

Possibly not use the same bloody name both times either.

I'll be watching the Aleppo channels closely, apparently Homs is kicking off as well.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:09

J33uk: Oct 24, 2005

The request for anti-air rockets at the end there is pretty interesting. I'm not sure if that's the sole thing preventing them from creating an area of control, but if they had a shot at disabling more of the regime's air power that would create quite the intimidation factor for anyone wondering if they're on the right side.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:27

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

If you replace all the FSA with peasants and anti-air missiles with crossbows, this reads like some history book.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:38

Miruvor: Jan 19, 2007; Pillbug

There's a similar story out today, the FSA has an airbase pretty much surrounded deep in the north-western territory that they effectively control, which is where most of the reports of downed aircraft have come from.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/world/middleeast/rebels-make-gains-in-blunting-syrian-air-attacks.html?pagewanted=all

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:48

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Miruvor posted:

There's a similar story out today, the FSA has an airbase pretty much surrounded deep in the north-western territory that they effectively control, which is where most of the reports of downed aircraft have come from.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/world/middleeast/rebels-make-gains-in-blunting-syrian-air-attacks.html?pagewanted=all

That's where they were using an OSV-96 to snipe at parked aircraft as well.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 17:51

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

CJ Chivers did a really good video piece from Idlib on the fighting there and how the FSA are doing things that's worth checking out
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/09/27/world/middleeast/100000001809375/fighting-for-idlib.html

# ? Sep 27, 2012 18:42

Invalido: Dec 28, 2005; BICHAELING

Brown Moses posted:

CJ Chivers did a really good video piece from Idlib on the fighting there and how the FSA are doing things that's worth checking out
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/09/27/world/middleeast/100000001809375/fighting-for-idlib.html

That was great.

Unrelatedly, I read your blog post with the videos of the DIY weaponry. What I think you call a "DIY recoilless rifle" is neither recoilless, nor likely to be rifled. To my eyes that doesn't appear to be an attempted improvised backblast weapon at all. It looks more like a failed attempt at making a breech-loaded gun/howitzer/mortar. Someone who knows Arabic ought to know better than I do though, if they give any technical information.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 20:02

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

In the opening of the video they mention "B-10", which I believe references the commonly used B-10 recoilless rifle. Obviously they've done a terrible job copying it, but I think it's what they were going for.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 20:13

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's one of those sequences of videos that is cute/horrible

Formation of the Battalion for Children in Aleppo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8dv-dkXJ7U

Training the Battalion for Children

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQ4rw3CemW0

Weapons of the Battalion for Children

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6XHWXjFhXg

One day they'll probably be old enough to fight with the FSA.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 20:36

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a DIY grenade launcher from Aleppo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLMS5L6rmY8

[edit] Here's some more kids playing at war in Rastan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBafcnflKJI

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Sep 27, 2012

# ? Sep 27, 2012 20:40

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Brown Moses posted:

Here's a DIY grenade launcher from Aleppo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLMS5L6rmY8

The total lack of reference of scale and the floor texture make it look like it's about six inches long. drat minituarists.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 21:02

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

And as a sidenote to everything, it appears that Nakoula Basseley of "Innocence of Muslims" fame has been arrested for violation of parole.

# ? Sep 27, 2012 23:37

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Apparently a lot of Aleppo is covered with pungent smoke right now. Speculation is that either a plastics factory caught fire or that the FSA is setting tire piles on fire in mass in an attempt to provide concealment from the Syrian Air Force.

Other than that there's not much news coming out of the city at the moment.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 01:46

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-28/us-withdraws-staff-from-tripoli-embassy/4285240

quote:

A US judge has ordered the alleged filmmaker behind a video that sparked protests across the Muslim world be detained without bond after being arrested in Los Angeles.

Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, the alleged director/producer of Innocence Of Muslims, appeared in court after being arrested for breaching the terms of his probation for a 2010 banking fraud conviction.

Huh, fraud you say? Didnt expect that.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 02:39

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

SynthOrange posted:

Huh, fraud you say? Didnt expect that.

He went to great lengths to try to hide the fact that he directed the film. The guy sounds like a scumbag.

The fact that he was out on parole for bank fraud was known day one of the big press coverage.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 02:41

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

Sorry, I glossed over that bit just among all the other crazy details of that whole affair. Bank fraud must have been the least remarkable of them.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 02:44

Ron Paul Atreides: Apr 19, 2012; Uyghurs situation in Xinjiang? Just a police action, do not fret. Not ongoing genocide like in EVIL Canada.

I am definitely not a tankie.

Brown Moses posted:

CJ Chivers did a really good video piece from Idlib on the fighting there and how the FSA are doing things that's worth checking out
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/09/27/world/middleeast/100000001809375/fighting-for-idlib.html

I'm both inspired and terribly saddened by the fatalism at the end. :smith:

They won't give up but they seem to think they can't win.

gently caress it's a messed up war. I wish there was something that could be done.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 05:05

SexyBlindfold: Apr 24, 2008; i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!

steve1 posted:

Are you Syrian or have you just spent time in Syria? On that note, are there any known Syrian SA posters?

I'm Syrian-Chilean :iamafag:
Like 4th generation though so don't ask me anything that's not related to how to make bitchin' kibbeh.

Also, anybody got any updates of the situation in Lebanon? I'd ask about Jordan too but nobody cares about Jordan, it's the Suriname of the ME.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 05:37

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

SexyBlindfold posted:

I'm Syrian-Chilean :iamafag:
Like 4th generation though so don't ask me anything that's not related to how to make bitchin' kibbeh.

Also, anybody got any updates of the situation in Lebanon? I'd ask about Jordan too but nobody cares about Jordan, it's the Suriname of the ME.

Western Sahara gets no love either.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 05:59

Kombotron: Aug 11, 2011

CommieGIR posted:

He went to great lengths to try to hide the fact that he directed the film. The guy sounds like a scumbag.

The fact that he was out on parole for bank fraud was known day one of the big press coverage.

I am pretty sure that his probation also said that he cannot be involved with computers. You know, because he is a convicted scammer.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 08:23

curried lamb of God: Aug 31, 2001; we are all Marwinners

It barely qualifies as MENA, but Kenya claims that they've captured the last al-Shabbab stronghold in Somalia:

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/kenya-says-somali-rebel-city-falls-fighting-near-beach/

# ? Sep 28, 2012 08:40

Pieter Pan: May 16, 2004; Bad faith argument here:
-------------------------------->

Heavy fighting in Syria's largest city

quote:

The major rebel group in the city -- the Tawhid Brigade -- says on its Facebook page that its members have entered the Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood to fight pro-government Kurdish gunmen.

Anyone an idea just how pro-government these Kurdish gunmen are?

# ? Sep 28, 2012 12:12

Munin: Nov 14, 2004

Volkerball posted:

Western Sahara gets no love either.

What's been happening in Mali? Last I heard people were pissed off at Islamists bulldozing everything but they were apparently to powerful to dislodge.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 12:21

Political Whores: Feb 13, 2012

Munin posted:

What's been happening in Mali? Last I heard people were pissed off at Islamists bulldozing everything but they were apparently to powerful to dislodge.

Not anything good.

The Islamists in power are implementing their particularly harsh version of Sharia law. In this case, 5 men who allegedly robbed a bus had a hand and a foot amputated.

The Economic Community Of West African States(ECOWAS)is planning to send troops, with the approval of the Malinese government, to help dislodge the Islamists.

Political Whores fucked around with this message at 12:33 on Sep 28, 2012

# ? Sep 28, 2012 12:29

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Pieter posted:

Heavy fighting in Syria's largest city

Anyone an idea just how pro-government these Kurdish gunmen are?

I believe their Facebook page claims it's the PKK, who said they'd ally against the FSA, so this might be pretty significant. Of course, today is overtime at the rumour mill, so who knows?

# ? Sep 28, 2012 12:41

Slashrat: Jun 6, 2011; YOSPOS

I must have missed something somewhere. What is PKK's beef with the FSA and why do they consider the existing regime preferable to anything resulting from a FSA victory?

# ? Sep 28, 2012 14:37

The MUMPSorceress: Jan 6, 2012; ^SHTPSTS; Gary’s Answer

Pieter posted:

Heavy fighting in Syria's largest city

Anyone an idea just how pro-government these Kurdish gunmen are?

It's a really weird world we live in when guerrilla squads have facebook pages.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 15:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Iran's Fars News Agency confuses The Onion with a real news organisation and reprints one of their stories (uncredited)

quote:

Gallup Poll: Rural Whites Prefer Ahmadinejad to Obama

TEHRAN (FNA)- According to the results of a Gallup poll released Monday, the overwhelming majority of rural white Americans said they would rather vote for Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad than US President Barack Obama.

"I like him better," said West Virginia resident Dale Swiderski, who, along with 77 percent of rural Caucasian voters, confirmed he would much rather go to a baseball game or have a drink with Ahmadinejad than spend time with Obama.

"He takes national defense seriously, and he'd never let some gay protesters tell him how to run his country like Obama does."

According to the same Gallup poll, 60 percent of rural whites said they at least respected that Ahmadinejad doesn't try to hide the fact that he's Muslim.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 15:51

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

Brown Moses posted:

Iran's Fars News Agency confuses The Onion with a real news organisation and reprints one of their stories (uncredited)

How the hell do these kinds of people always manage to be so awful and so laughable at the same time?

# ? Sep 28, 2012 15:54

cafel: Mar 29, 2010; This post is hurting the economy!

Slashrat posted:

I must have missed something somewhere. What is PKK's beef with the FSA and why do they consider the existing regime preferable to anything resulting from a FSA victory?

Maybe if the Turks are supporting the FSA then the PKK just feel inclined to oppose them?

# ? Sep 28, 2012 16:02

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 11:07

midnightclimax: Dec 3, 2011; by XyloJW

The FSA have stated that they oppose an independent kurdish region in Syria, and will fight Kurds to prevent it. At least according to some interview with Riad al-Asaad on a turkish blog, not sure if that's the official stance.

# ? Sep 28, 2012 16:13

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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