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Can someone give me a link to that site what tracks the change in candidate prices over time? It's NOT on PredictIt but somewhere else. Thanks!!
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Jan 26, 2016 22:30
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welp, snatching up some low price NOs for Rand getting in the debate. I have a hard time seeing Fox play fair when it comes to including Rand- if they game the system the way I suspect its gonna leave paulites a bloo blooing again- let's see some cherrypicking here, baby!
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Jan 26, 2016 22:45
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:welp, snatching up some low price NOs for Rand getting in the debate. I have a hard time seeing Fox play fair when it comes to including Rand- if they game the system the way I suspect its gonna leave paulites a bloo blooing again- let's see some cherrypicking here, baby! Right now Paulites are pointing to a politico article that says Paul is gearing up to make it, but honestly it would be so easy to cherry pick Paul out of this, I think it'd be nuts if they don't do it. Why include Rand Paul in your thing that you want to make money with? It's like building a car with a giant blade sticking out of the driver's seat.
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Jan 26, 2016 22:58
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I've got a 100 share buy order at 10c but I'm afraid of two things; A. it doesn't go that low because despite the Paulies driving the YES higher and higher there are enough "sensible" people realizing that Fox is holding the reigns on this horse, or B. it DOES go that low because of an announcement by Fox that Paul is in and I don't have the time or ability to cancel my buy and basically flush $10 down the drain.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:01
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pathetic little tramp posted:Right now Paulites are pointing to a politico article that says Paul is gearing up to make it, but honestly it would be so easy to cherry pick Paul out of this, I think it'd be nuts if they don't do it. Why include Rand Paul in your thing that you want to make money with? It's like building a car with a giant blade sticking out of the driver's seat. Politico’s source: quote:According to POLITICO’s calculations Politico doesn’t know which polls Fox will choose any more than you or I do.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:02
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:I've got a 100 share buy order at 10c but I'm afraid of two things; A. it doesn't go that low because despite the Paulies driving the YES higher and higher there are enough "sensible" people realizing that Fox is holding the reigns on this horse, or B. it DOES go that low because of an announcement by Fox that Paul is in and I don't have the time or ability to cancel my buy and basically flush $10 down the drain. Announcement is at 6 EST, so plan accordingly.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:04
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Platystemon posted:Announcement is at 6 EST, so plan accordingly. Again; I have a very hard time seeing Fox 'admit a mistake' by leaving him out of the FBN debate then including him on this one, especially when he's battling for scraps in the polls. I see their internal leadership leaning towards letting Trump have more time to speak then include the (5%) people's champ.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:12
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Well according to a random dude on PredictIt, apparently Fox already did some work with Google on some google trends thing and their publicity photo seems to be missing somebody. Not sure if that means anything.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:18
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:Again; I have a very hard time seeing Fox 'admit a mistake' by leaving him out of the FBN debate then including him on this one, especially when he's battling for scraps in the polls. I see their internal leadership leaning towards letting Trump have more time to speak then include the (5%) people's champ. Oh I agree. I had some lowball buy orders in, but I cancelled them when it became clear the market wouldn’t be going that way before the announcement. If you’re still holding out hope for 10¢ NO, though, that’s when to cancel if they don’t get filled.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:19
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Platystemon posted:If you’re still holding out hope for 10¢ NO, though, that’s when to cancel if they don’t get filled. I already managed to snag 26 when someone partially fulfilled my order- I put a second lowball in at 7c, let's see what happens 
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Jan 26, 2016 23:23
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Paul is in, there are no NOs left to buy. A pretty dumb move by Fox, honestly.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:03
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welp. $25 down the shitter :/ that being said I now have 208 shares thanks to those lowball offers being dumped off in the last 2 minutes
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Jan 27, 2016 00:03
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that was a bad bet bleh
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Jan 27, 2016 00:03
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watwat posted:that was a bad bet bleh Despite this beat I still feel like betting against Fox's ability to do anything "right" is incredibly EV+, especially when they have vested interest in the outcome.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:06
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pathetic little tramp posted:Well according to a random dude on PredictIt, apparently Fox already did some work with Google on some google trends thing and their publicity photo seems to be missing somebody. I assume every comment on predict it is pure manipulative hogwash aimed at driving the markets so they can flip their shares
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Jan 27, 2016 00:17
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drat you fox! My account is supposed to go up up up I'm not liking this down BS
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Jan 27, 2016 00:20
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:Despite this beat I still feel like betting against Fox's ability to do anything "right" is incredibly EV+, especially when they have vested interest in the outcome. Same with betting against Paulite optimism.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:32
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So there is now a "Will Trump attend the debate" market. He was just on CNN and and said he wasn't going.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:35
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Trump just announced at his press rally that he is likely skipping the debate Trump show up NO is pretty cheap at the moment.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:36
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Tump skipping is a  move, but so is announcing that he’s not two days before, and so is relenting
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Jan 27, 2016 00:44
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If you're nervous about putting money on Trump skipping the event, reminder that you can get 60 cent Nos for Trump on most speaking time. Covers the skip, and you're not necessarily screwed if Trump changes his mind.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:49
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watwat posted:So there is now a "Will Trump attend the debate" market. He was just on CNN and and said he wasn't going. Oh snap easy monies again
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Jan 27, 2016 00:50
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:If you're nervous about putting money on Trump skipping the event, reminder that you can get 60 cent Nos for Trump on most speaking time. Covers the skip, and you're not necessarily screwed if Trump changes his mind. Cruz will get the most speaking time, if this is a market I'm putting my money there
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Jan 27, 2016 00:51
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He's going, or will at least tease it tomorrow. Time to buy some cheap yes.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:53
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That was the quickest 250 dollars I've ever made, hell yes
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Jan 27, 2016 00:55
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pathetic little tramp posted:Trump just announced at his press rally that he is likely skipping the debate Trump show up NO is pretty cheap at the moment. Yeahhhh I just finished maxing out on Yes there. He does this nonsense every other debate. You can never be 100% sure with Trump, but I'm maybe 98% sure he'll be there.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeahhhh I just finished maxing out on Yes there. He does this nonsense every other debate. You can never be 100% sure with Trump, but I'm maybe 98% sure he'll be there. Wish you the best of luck, I'm out, bought in at 5 cents and sold on the way up. Probably didn't catch the peak, but that made up for some of my bad guesses and then some.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:56
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I'm going on the opposite track on this. He said he's not attending but when has he kept his word on anything? Trump has threatened to boycott debates 3 times now. This is about setting up a narrative where he can blame Fox for setting him up to fail or say that he still won even though the deck was stacked against him. Trump is smart enough to know that there will be headlines that new was afraid of a girl and that how can he negotiate with Putin or Mexico because they will be mean to him too. Every other candidate that shows up will attack him with impunity. He's doing some stupid twitter poll so what's going to happen is he will announce that the results came in for him to attend. He will say that people want to see him, they love him, he's doing it for them.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeahhhh I just finished maxing out on Yes there. He does this nonsense every other debate. You can never be 100% sure with Trump, but I'm maybe 98% sure he'll be there. yup agree. nothing pumps your base up more than saber rattling.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:00
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I think it's a good idea for him to skip since it allows 100% of the attacks to be directed at Cruz. Everyone on stage will gladly comply too. He's threatened to skip many times but I think this would be a good tactical move.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:03
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It would be a huge coup to give Cruz all the airtime just before Iowa. People would tune in for the controversy. Nah, ladies and gentlemen, this is the new Biden market.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:12
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Trump shares are way low for speaking time, it's either gonna be him or Cruz so that's a good return for a coin toss.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:13
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Yeah I'm not touching that Trump debate poll It's gonna be fast money but you can't stump the Trump and you know he's crazy enough to flip around
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Jan 27, 2016 01:15
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Vox Nihili posted:It would be a huge coup to give Cruz all the airtime just before Iowa. People would tune in for the controversy. Nah, ladies and gentlemen, this is the new Biden market. I think Cruz will get most speaking time even with trump in (there's no way I can see him not showing up for the debate, I heard an interview with him on ABC and they pressed him and he sounded pretty sure, he's just trying to keep his name in the headlines for as many days as possible before Iowa, he won't skip a chance to schlong everyone in a debate, he always does well after debates I could see trump taking the speaking time market because it's Fox News and Megan Kelly and there may be a lot of back and forth and blustering that will eat up the clock
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Jan 27, 2016 01:15
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IN A SHOCKING TURN OF EVENTS RAND PAUL STANDS IN SOLIDARITY WITH DONALD TRUMP AND ANNOUNCES HE ALSO WILL NOT ATTEND FNC DEBATE wouldn't that be nice **looks wistfully at 213 shares of NO**
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Jan 27, 2016 01:16
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Also seeing the Gain/Loss thing [+10.00] or more is such a loving endorphin rush god I love it
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Jan 27, 2016 01:16
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Commie NedFlanders posted:I think Cruz will get most speaking time even with trump in (there's no way I can see him not showing up for the debate, I heard an interview with him on ABC and they pressed him and he sounded pretty sure, he's just trying to keep his name in the headlines for as many days as possible before Iowa, he won't skip a chance to schlong everyone in a debate, he always does well after debates Trump participation market is where the action is now!
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Jan 27, 2016 01:17
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Vox Nihili posted:It would be a huge coup to give Cruz all the airtime just before Iowa. People would tune in for the controversy. Nah, ladies and gentlemen, this is the new Biden market. Dont forget to double dip by picking up cheap Trump debate speaking time shares. Racking up those cheapies.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:17
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There's a lot of moments for easy money with these new markets but there's also lots of chances to lose a bit. I don't want to deposit any new funds so I've been selling off old shares at a loss in order to get into the new markets and I lost a pretty penny on the gosh darn Rand Paul making it in the debate
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Jan 27, 2016 01:17
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Vox Nihili posted:Trump participation market is where the action is now! That's the easiest money IMO, and they are trading hot and fast, I'm trying to get as much as I can below 60 cents, if I can get enough cheap yes I can win all my lost Rand Paul money back
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Jan 27, 2016 01:19
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