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ecureuilmatrix posted:Unless I'm mistaken, it seemed like an effort at: Yeah that was pretty good tanking. Good use of spotters in the battle position. Slightly off topic: can anyone recommend a good Arabic vocabulary resource? I have a good grasp of the grammar and am familiar with some colloquial words, but I need to build up my vocabulary.
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Nov 11, 2012 00:53
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Bombadilillo posted:By that logic we wouldn't know at all that they tried Not sure why people are so keen on this "warning shots" idea. I'm assuming we know they fired because the U.S. Military takes a keen interest in things like Iranian jets intercepting our planes in international waters and We Have Our Ways. Warning shots aren't really A Thing in aviation these days, for a number of reasons: First, very few countries still load their aircraft cannon with tracers, so it would be pretty easy to not even see the warning shots. Second, most people who see an armed military aircraft join up on their wing know whoever sent it means business: if the intruder isn't deterred by the mere presence of a jet fighter, they already think you won't shoot them down. Third, firing at or near the sovereign instrumentalities of another country is an extremely dicey proposition and staggeringly likely to trigger a war. The fact that it's a drone makes the entire idea doubly hilarious because the RQ-1 is considered expendable when necessary and it's very hard to intimidate pilots who are in a trailer 8,500 miles away.
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Nov 11, 2012 01:09
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because they missed and we noticed they missed. How is it functionally different if its a 'warning shot' or a 'missed shot'
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Dead Reckoning posted:The big difference is actively trying to kill another aircraft and failing vs intentionally missing. I see what your getting at. And I am not arguing that it WAS warning shots. I just thought it sounded pretty weak that is must have been a missed shot because sucky planes Q.E.D. I don't think 'warning shot' is the alternative, more like 'being a dick' shot. Just a poke in the ribs, we see your drones we could shoot them if we wanted message to America. Not trying to scare a pilot that obviously isnt there. Is that not a possibility?
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Nov 11, 2012 01:19
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Bombadilillo posted:I see what your getting at. And I am not arguing that it WAS warning shots. I just thought it sounded pretty weak that is must have been a missed shot because sucky planes Q.E.D. You can do that perfectly well just by intercepting and buzzing the drone. Shooting and missing just makes you look really terrible at flying.
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Nov 11, 2012 01:24
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Alchenar posted:You can do that perfectly well just by intercepting and buzzing the drone. Good point. Still would it be the first time Iran went out of its way to overtly and oddly make a statement? Bombadilillo fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Nov 11, 2012 |
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Nov 11, 2012 01:26
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Assuming that they weren't patrolling but rather saw the Predator on ground based radar and then scrambled fighters. Who in the hell would scramble ground attack fighters with no air-to-air weapons except for a cannon to intercept aircraft?
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Nov 11, 2012 01:52
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Vladimir Putin posted:Assuming that they weren't patrolling but rather saw the Predator on ground based radar and then scrambled fighters. Who in the hell would scramble ground attack fighters with no air-to-air weapons except for a cannon to intercept aircraft? Like I said before, this was the IRGC, not the Iranian military. They are basically two separate entities, and the highest performance aircraft the IRGC possesses is the Su-25 (the rest of their air arm consists of prop trainers, transports, and helos.)
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Nov 11, 2012 01:57
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McDowell posted:They care but there isn't much they can do about it since this is supposed to be a new era for Popular Sovereignty and a practical test of the NeoCon Democracy Agenda. The Suez thing is actually even bigger - the Mubarak regime was FAMOUSLY poo poo at running the Suez Authority, to the point that it wasn't uncommon for freighters to not know how much they (/their company) would have to pay until they arrived at the drat canal. It would be difficult for the new government to do worse, even if they prove to be both pants-on-head moronic and irredeemably corrupt (neither of which there is much evidence for yet).
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Nov 11, 2012 02:21
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gvibes posted:Not sure where these photos came from, but some are really well done. Obviously, some are pretty grisly.  Is that a flare?
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Nov 11, 2012 03:19
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Looks like it.
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Nov 11, 2012 03:24
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Section 31 posted:
Yes. They started using flares on attack runs with consistency. I doubt its because of active attack, I think they are just afraid there might be a MANPAD since their attack runs are when they are most vulnerable.
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Nov 11, 2012 03:33
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farraday posted:Yes. They started using flares on attack runs with consistency. I doubt its because of active attack, I think they are just afraid there might be a MANPAD since their attack runs are when they are most vulnerable. That's standard procedure for NATO CAS aircraft. Come in for strafing/bomb run, peel off hard while punching off flare/chaff. You see it in A-10 strafing videos all the time.
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Nov 11, 2012 03:36
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MA-Horus posted:That's standard procedure for NATO CAS aircraft. Come in for strafing/bomb run, peel off hard while punching off flare/chaff. Yes, but the Syrian airforce is hardly the same and based on the last few months it has not been standard procedure here. It's a reaction to a new perceived threat, but videos of flares are a hall of a lot more common than videos of MANPAD attacks. Evidence of the effect of the few attacks we have seen on pilot confidence.
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Nov 11, 2012 03:42
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MA-Horus posted:That's standard procedure for NATO CAS aircraft. Come in for strafing/bomb run, peel off hard while punching off flare/chaff. They have to assume they are going to be attacked their most vulnerable point of their dive, so they always launch flares. C-130s do it as well as they drop their loads as a precaution.
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Nov 11, 2012 03:44
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Another thing to keep in mind with the Predator incident is that those SU-25 have no air-intercept radar (ie they can't detect something the size of a Predator on their navigation radar) and would therefore need to be guided to the Predator by a ground controller until they can get a visual fix. I agree that the most likely scenario is that some IRGC commander saw that some Western drones were regularly doing orbits off the coast in a particular area and decided to send up his SU-25s to try and grab some internal political points for splashing an instrument of the Imperialist Aggressors.
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Nov 11, 2012 05:16
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This seems more like saber-rattling for domestic reasons than anything else to me. Iran is going to talk to the US about their nuclear program, which is a sign of weakness. Sending the IGRC up to take a shot at a US drone is an easy way to send a signal of strength that is not going to cause serious outrage or get in the way of the talks.
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Nov 11, 2012 05:25
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-breaks-its-pledge-to-reform/2012/11/09/110299aa-2a9f-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story.html Nice to see their editorial board write this about Bahrain.
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Nov 11, 2012 08:41
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farraday posted:Yes, but the Syrian airforce is hardly the same and based on the last few months it has not been standard procedure here. It's a reaction to a new perceived threat, but videos of flares are a hall of a lot more common than videos of MANPAD attacks. Also I think dropping flares after a bombing run is one of those "just in case" type things. The Taliban arent really known for having many if any manpads but NATO jets still drop flares after a strafing run. Why? Just in case. And I'm sure NATO jets probably always fly with some air to air missiles as well even though the Taliban don't have an airforce. Why? Just in case 
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Nov 11, 2012 08:55
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The point is Syrian jets were not doing this in videos until recently, almost certainly because they have been losing a lot of jets to AA from rebels.
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Nov 11, 2012 09:27
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Vladimir Putin posted:These 'was in international airspace' or 'was in international waters' disputes between countries is the worst. When China is involved, it's easy: they're always, always full of poo poo. They basically claim the entire ocean anywhere near their borders is their 'territory' rather than the 15-20 mile limit the rest of the world uses.
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Nov 11, 2012 10:16
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-Troika- posted:When China is involved, it's easy: they're always, always full of poo poo. They basically claim the entire ocean anywhere near their borders is their 'territory' rather than the 15-20 mile limit the rest of the world uses. Per the UNCLOS, the internationally accepted limit is 12 miles...of course, every country in the world that borders the ocean has an exception or two that they hold to this, but that's the commonly accepted standard. And yeah, while pretty much everyone in East and Southeast Asia is bad about claiming poo poo beyond 12 miles, China is one of the worst:  Granted, that is discussing EEZs and not the 12 mile territorial limit, but it still speaks to China's mentality on maritime boundaries.
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Nov 11, 2012 10:34
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iyaayas01 posted:Granted, that is discussing EEZs and not the 12 mile territorial limit, but it still speaks to China's mentality on maritime boundaries. That's really a manifestation of the fact that they have to be careful not to admit in any way that Taiwan is not part of China though, so they absolutely cannot have a maritime border which appears to acknowledge a sovereign entity.
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Nov 11, 2012 10:51
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breaking news is that all the main players have signed an agreement to form the Syrian National Coalition (SNC.) quote:Anti-regime groups meeting in Doha sign intitial agreement to form united group called the Syrian National Coalition. Syrian opposition groups meeting in the Qatari capital have signed an initial agreement to form a united group called the Syrian National Coalition. Also they're calling for military and other aid as a priority. I believe Qatar and so forth will unilaterally submit this request now that the groups have fulfilled the US's request, especially with a christian as leader of the coalition. These are positive steps in my opinion. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Nov 11, 2012 |
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Nov 11, 2012 13:55
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Oh and Israel has fired warning shots into Syria in response to mortar shells hitting the Golan Heights. I don't think much will eventuate from that though.
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Nov 11, 2012 14:06
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 Here's the photo Drudge is using for that headline. It's from something totally unrelated that happened on Wednesday. http://news.yahoo.com/photos/explosion-seen-syrian-village-bariqa-close-ceasefire-line-photo-140045848.html quote:"A short while ago, a mortar shell targeted an IDF (Israel Defense Forces) post in the Golan Heights," said army spokeswoman Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich. "We answered with a warning shot toward Syrian areas. We understand this was a mistake and was not meant to target Israel and then that is why we fired a warning shot in retaliation." At first I was just posting to laugh at Drudge but now I wonder what Israel's missile hit. AARO fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Nov 11, 2012 |
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Nov 11, 2012 17:04
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Lascivious Sloth posted:Oh and Israel has fired warning shots into Syria in response to mortar shells hitting the Golan Heights. I don't think much will eventuate from that though. I'm quite curious as to what Syria is thinking as its seeing their shells hit the Golan Heights. To quote another poster from earlier, does Assad think war with Israel is just what the doctor ordered?
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Nov 11, 2012 19:09
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I just wanted to try one more time to see if anyone could help me understand how Assad is currently financing his war effort. I remember a couple of months ago seeing some articles saying that the regime was extremely strapped for cash and would run out of all foreign reserves in just a few weeks, I didn't know if we're still seeing the endgame of that or whether the government is already run on IOUs?
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Nov 11, 2012 19:57
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spacetimecontinuu posted:I just wanted to try one more time to see if anyone could help me understand how Assad is currently financing his war effort. I remember a couple of months ago seeing some articles saying that the regime was extremely strapped for cash and would run out of all foreign reserves in just a few weeks, I didn't know if we're still seeing the endgame of that or whether the government is already run on IOUs? Nobody is going to take an IOU from the Assad regime. Except maybe the Russians.
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Nov 11, 2012 20:02
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Well, I figured that their military and other internal agencies might if they were especially dogmatic regime supporters, although I guess if you're still in any sort of position in the Syrian regime it's just because you're afraid of leaving. Sorry, it's interesting to watch states collapse piecemeal like this. So they're completely running on stockpiles at this point, right? No outside support at all flowing to Assad?
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Nov 11, 2012 20:20
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spacetimecontinuu posted:Well, I figured that their military and other internal agencies might if they were especially dogmatic regime supporters, although I guess if you're still in any sort of position in the Syrian regime it's just because you're afraid of leaving. Sorry, it's interesting to watch states collapse piecemeal like this. So they're completely running on stockpiles at this point, right? No outside support at all flowing to Assad? The Pasdaran has its own revenue streams separate from the rest of the Iranian government and there's no reason to believe they've stopped financing the Assad government; at this point they've staked their entire credibility on Syria and they'll likely continue to support Assad until the end. Iranians are increasingly angry about money being blown on Syria as their own economy falls apart though, so there's likely going to be increasing friction between the clerics and the military dictatorship in Iran. az jan jananam fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Nov 11, 2012 |
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Nov 11, 2012 20:34
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Corny posted:I'm quite curious as to what Syria is thinking as its seeing their shells hit the Golan Heights. To quote another poster from earlier, does Assad think war with Israel is just what the doctor ordered? Given the situation right now, the Syrian military command structure is going to value blind loyalty much more than competence. Assad's brutal, but he's not stupid enough to pick a war with Israel while he's trying to hold on to power in the middle of a huge civil war. More likely, some idiot in charge of a few dozen men and a few mortars decided that hey, there's some people over there and they aren't ours, let's shoot at them.
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Nov 11, 2012 22:14
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The Syrian opposition destroy a key bridge to prevent reinforcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rk0RRAoh9U
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Nov 11, 2012 22:34
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Supposedly just recognised by Francequote:Syrian opposition finally forms unified coalition I get the feeling at this point it's like watch two school buses crash into each other at high speed and taking sides.
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Nov 11, 2012 23:24
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IDF fires warning shot into Syria after shellingquote:IDF targets Syria for first time since Yom Kippur War. I guess Operation Orchard and the Ain es Saheb airstrike don't count.  quote:Israel has not fired at Syria since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Great reporting there, Jerusalem Post. Darkman Fanpage fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Nov 11, 2012 |
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Nov 11, 2012 23:41
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Brown Moses posted:Supposedly just recognised by France France was one of the first nations to recognize Libya's new government as well.
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Nov 11, 2012 23:48
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The French are eager to get back into the Middle Eastern / North African power broker scene they've been neglecting since the end of their little Algerian adventure.
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Nov 11, 2012 23:54
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"The Battalion of One Man" in Daara https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMUVKl-_alY
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Nov 11, 2012 23:56
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Smashurbanipal posted:The French are eager to get back into the Middle Eastern / North African power broker scene they've been neglecting since the end of their little Algerian adventure. It isn't in the news much but Françafrique is alive and well; don't forget for example what happened in Côte d'Ivoire.
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Nov 11, 2012 23:58
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quote:#BREAKING Riad Saif: we have been, for the first time, promised to enable the FSA to defend Syrian people, with advanced arms within weeks. In other news, SNC has started issuing and renewing passports via its consulate in Tripoli: 
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Nov 12, 2012 00:13
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spacetimecontinuu posted:I just wanted to try one more time to see if anyone could help me understand how Assad is currently financing his war effort. I remember a couple of months ago seeing some articles saying that the regime was extremely strapped for cash and would run out of all foreign reserves in just a few weeks, I didn't know if we're still seeing the endgame of that or whether the government is already run on IOUs?
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Nov 12, 2012 00:13
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