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Volkerball posted:Jihadist militants funded by Saudis advancing on a position with Israeli air support. All getting paid by the USA  And this will never bite America in the rear end, ever!
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May 5, 2013 07:35
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First of all, more than one strike happened. See this Map: http://goo.gl/maps/vMaOx The videos from Qudsayah and Barzeh are showing explosions happening in two distinct areas of the Qasiyoun Mountain. The regime is claiming an attack on a research center in Jumrayah. The targets are certainly not CW stockpiles, although there are many located in and around Qasiyoun. The attacks were nowhere near the roads that are used for smuggling into Lebanon by the regime, and judging from how high up on Qasiyoun they are I'd say they happened against long-established military installations. This probably has nothing to do with weapons going to Hezbullah, or with CWs. EDIT: Jumrayah, not Jaramana. People from around the area's that were hit (especially Rukn Eddin, Qudsayah, and Dummar) are reporting feeling very high pressure. People in Qudsayah and Dummar are reporting strange odors and headaches after the explosion in Jumrayah happened. The massacre in Baidah is one in a series of massacres against Sunni communities in and around the Alewite homeland, which started with the massacres in Karm Elzeitoun, Houla and Deir Be'elba in early-mid 2012. This series of targeted massacres is consistent in various factors, in that Shabeeha go in and slit people's throats and/or burn them after intensive shelling by the regime, and in it's locations which are always villages or small towns of Sunnis located in close proximity to Alewite villages and towns. This is genocide or genocidal in intention, most certainly. Muffiner fucked around with this message at 08:09 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 07:54
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Twee as gently caress posted:I guess the regime is really getting desperate to create some illusion of control: That's a totally unreliable account, some guy in England reporting any little thing that's Tweeted by anyone on Syria, and probably a lot of stuff he makes up himself. I'm collecting photos and videos, so if anyone has more let me know. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 08:03 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 07:56
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Muffiner posted:The regime is claiming an attack on a research center inside Jaramanah, which is in the exact opposite end of Damascus from where the explosions happened. Jamaraya, actually, which is near Qassioun. Reports and videos are suggesting that Mengh airport in northrern Aleppo province finally fell to the rebels.
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May 5, 2013 08:03
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Herostratus posted:Reports and videos are suggesting that Mengh airport in northrern Aleppo province finally fell to the rebels. Gah, why does this all happen on the one day I have to celebrate my parents ruby wedding?
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May 5, 2013 08:05
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Here's whats reportedly the remains of one of the munitions used https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hlvjwqnc3w And Ynet is quoting the NYT as saying this quote:The New York Times cited Syrian residents and activists as saying the alleged Israeli strike at the war-ravaged country's military facilities hit the headquarters of an elite division of Bashar Assad's forces.
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May 5, 2013 08:07
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Muffiner posted:
Well, if the Alawites weren't going to be victims of ethnic cleansing before then they will be now.
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May 5, 2013 08:19
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Brown Moses posted:Here's whats reportedly the remains of one of the munitions used That seems like an awfully small munition to be used in those airstrikes. Maybe thats just a shell from an ammo dump that got hit? If the Israelis dropped bombs, I would imagine they would be at least 500 pounds if not 1000 or 2000 pound bombs.
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May 5, 2013 08:59
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Finally some details on the strike's targets from pro-Assad sources: http://news.yahoo.com/israeli-warplanes-strike-syria-escalation-073408782.html;_ylt=A2KJ2UjHEIZR3TAAZTnQtDMD quote:Hezbollah's al-Manar TV said the research center in Jamraya was not hit. It added that an army supply center was targeted by the strike.
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May 5, 2013 09:00
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So anything recent to give substance to those all caps tweets from that apparent Israeli volunteer EMS account? 30k reservists called up in Israel, moving towards the border, declaration of war/emergency etc. etc.?
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May 5, 2013 09:11
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Best Friends posted:Giving away weapons in the middle of a war seems like a weird move. Is this to buy or encourage more Hezbollah involvement? Something else? Pure lies? Could be this. It's been a frosty relationship between Hezbollah and Syria in the past few years; supposedly Hezbollah holds Syria responsible for the assassination of Imad Mughnieh back in 2008.
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May 5, 2013 09:25
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Redgrendel2001 posted:Could be this. It's been a frosty relationship between Hezbollah and Syria in the past few years; supposedly Hezbollah holds Syria responsible for the assassination of Imad Mughnieh back in 2008. Hezbollah fighters have reportedly been fighting alongside the Syrian army in several areas, in particular the Homs region in recent weeks, resulting in gains for the Syrian army, so it may be related.
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May 5, 2013 09:29
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So, in case of mobilization, would the army go around Lebanon or through it considering Hezbollah happens to be based here? I don't have any knowledge of the situation at all but I'm just wondering if they're perhaps trying to root out Hezbollah once and for all considering their previous attempts. And mostly worried about the backlash on civilians and myself in case that happens.
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May 5, 2013 10:24
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According to what Israeli newspapers wrote a few days ago, a military exercise involving IDF reservists (which was to take place near the border to Lebanon IIRC) was cancelled due to the recent tensions. These idiotic tweets regarding mobilization and whatnot might be referring to that. Edit: Or maybe I dreamed that up, the only article I could find stated that the drill started last monday: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-failed-to-inform-defense-minister-of-battle-drill-on-lebanon-front.premium-1.518492 Punch Rockgroin fucked around with this message at 11:39 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 11:33
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The Syrian's deputy foreign minister has called the Israeli air strike a "declaration of war", one I doubt Syria is in any state to fight.
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May 5, 2013 11:35
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Brown Moses posted:The Syrian's deputy foreign minister has called the Israeli air strike a "declaration of war", one I doubt Syria is in any state to fight. Lets be honest they weren't in any state to fight it for the last few decades. That hilariously one side 1982 Air Battle comes to mind.
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May 5, 2013 12:08
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Any deaths reported due to any of the recent Israeli airstrikes? Presumably when a facility is hit, or a convoy, there's casualties, but I've not really seen any numbers on those.
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May 5, 2013 13:21
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I'm surprised the Syrian Govt are not wheeling out the propaganda machine to paint this as further proof that the whole revolution is a Jewish plot to destroy the motherland or something.
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May 5, 2013 13:54
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Jut posted:I'm surprised the Syrian Govt are not wheeling out the propaganda machine to paint this as further proof that the whole revolution is a Jewish plot to destroy the motherland or something. Who said they aren't?
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May 5, 2013 13:58
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Rip Testes posted:Any deaths reported due to any of the recent Israeli airstrikes? Presumably when a facility is hit, or a convoy, there's casualties, but I've not really seen any numbers on those. There were reports on Twitter last night that Syrian soldiers were killed in the airstrike. With the reliability of Twitter take that for what it's worth.
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May 5, 2013 14:01
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Highspeeddub posted:There were reports on Twitter last night that Syrian soldiers were killed in the airstrike. With the reliability of Twitter take that for what it's worth. There is pretty much no way Syrian soldiers weren't killed in the airstrike/ammo explosions, they were loving huge.
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May 5, 2013 14:44
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farraday posted:There is pretty much no way Syrian soldiers weren't killed in the airstrike/ammo explosions, they were loving huge. This looks big enough that Assad's government may be in shock and still trying to get a grip on numbers/names.
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May 5, 2013 15:12
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McDowell posted:This looks big enough that Assad's government may be in shock and still trying to get a grip on numbers/names. They're reporting via semi-official channels that about 300 people were killed, mostly soldiers. Also many innocent chickens, cows and sheep.
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May 5, 2013 15:28
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^^^farraday posted:There is pretty much no way Syrian soldiers weren't killed in the airstrike/ammo explosions, they were loving huge. It's possible. The primary target was a convoy heading from Iran to Lebanon. Don't even know that it was Syrians escorting it, and I haven't heard much about what else might have been targeted, if anything. As far as I know, the only thing indicating a military installation was attacked was that post mentioning that there was one in the mountains outside of Damascus. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 15:34 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 15:28
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Volkerball posted:^^^ There is no way to my mind that explosion was a convoy. A convoy may have been hit too, but that looked like a fairly large installation being hit and location wise is associated with some fairly large military bases. If I were to guess I'd say Israel decided to hit the depot they believed the weapons were coming from instead of playing whack a Convoy. Does anyone have any reaction from Turkey to the latest attack?
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May 5, 2013 15:56
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Hey as this thread nears 1000 pages is there any chance we could get a new thread so that people (i.e. me) could get a What the gently caress is Going On post/OP? Seems like poo poo has really hit the fan in terms of international escalation but there are no other middle east threads and, well, 969 pages is a lot to wade through.
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May 5, 2013 16:45
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Arglebargle III posted:Hey as this thread nears 1000 pages is there any chance we could get a new thread so that people (i.e. me) could get a What the gently caress is Going On post/OP? Seems like poo poo has really hit the fan in terms of international escalation but there are no other middle east threads and, well, 969 pages is a lot to wade through. Too much really, do you just want to know about Syria and related to that mostly international national or what?
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May 5, 2013 16:54
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I think the thread broke the 'List Users that posted in this thread' page awhile ago. If this is archived can that be fixed? Edit: Never mind it seems to be working? Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 17:15 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 17:12
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Arglebargle III posted:Hey as this thread nears 1000 pages is there any chance we could get a new thread so that people (i.e. me) could get a What the gently caress is Going On post/OP? Seems like poo poo has really hit the fan in terms of international escalation but there are no other middle east threads and, well, 969 pages is a lot to wade through. You could just check out the posts by user page for BM. That narrows it down to 100 some pages.  Just bookmark the thread and read it if you want to know what's going on. It's easy to think that a 2 year civil war wouldn't be too hard to summarize, but Syria has had nonstop game-changing developments. Keep updated on it, and eventually you'll have a rough idea of what the hell is happening. Always plenty of people that are around to answer questions as well.
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May 5, 2013 18:23
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I haven't seen anyone speculate on this, so let me ask: how much sway does the US administration have over the actions of Israeli military assets? (Kind of a 'heyyy remember all the times we've gone to bat for you and gave you all those shiny toys? Well we've got a favor to ask and you're already getting your hands dirty in the region anyway soo....') From what little I've followed it seems like Barrack has leaned a little bit harder on Israel than past recent administrations, maybe this strike is a manifestation of his "red line" consequences?
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May 5, 2013 18:47
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Regime video seems to confirm that the target was a weapons dump. Interestingly, in addition to hilariously claiming that the area was "99% civilian", they claim that the bombings only came after a rebel attack failed on the same site, implying that the FSA and Israel are colluding. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opH5FOVMl10 My bet is that the Israelis thought that the Syrians were transferring some of the weapons in the dump to Hezbollah, so they bombed them. It doesn't seem like a very smart long-term policy but then again Likudniks aren't very smart people.
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May 5, 2013 18:49
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The Protagonist posted:From what little I've followed it seems like Barrack has leaned a little bit harder on Israel than past recent administrations, maybe this strike is a manifestation of his "red line" consequences? The change in calculus could be putting less restraint on Israel - no one seems to know much about how Israeli bridges Russian and NATO interests. Israel has good reason to keep poo poo out of Hezbollah's hands.
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May 5, 2013 18:59
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McDowell posted:The change in calculus could be putting less restraint on Israel - no one seems to know much about how Israeli bridges Russian and NATO interests. Israel has good reason to keep poo poo out of Hezbollah's hands. Outside of Iran, I'm pretty sure every other government in the Middle-East must be quietly celebrating those strikes, Hizbullah not getting more weapons and preventing chemical weapons from falling into the hands of the Rebels. A better armed Hizbullah would be seen as a threat to stability in the region, and chemical weapons in the hands of Al-Nusra an unprecedented disaster with far-reaching implications. For all the screaming about Zionists and the rhetoric directed at the Zionist Entity, Arab States sure seem fine with most of what they do if you base yourself on stuff like Wikileaks and other diplomatic cables that reveal what happens behind the scene.
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May 5, 2013 19:02
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The whole situation is getting more worrying- I fear that as the regime crumbles some commander in Assad's regime or a fundie group that seizes some chemical weapons is going to do the unthinkable and start tossing that poo poo at Israel, who will probably respond with overwhelming force. I think it's still a low probability but every time Israel starts dropping poo poo on the area the chances increase a bit.
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May 5, 2013 19:35
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James Miller of EA Worldview has a good analysisquote:The 4th Armored Divion is Assad's most important unit, run by his brother, Maher Al Assad. If the 4th Armored Division was indeed the target of the airstrike, this is a major blow to Assad and to the regime. [edit] It also appears the alleged chemical attack in Saraqeb, Idlib, which I linked to one in Aleppo, didn't involve sarin according to the Global Post, which really doesn't surprise me. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:32 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 20:04
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^^^ How much stock do you put into the article he links claiming the Syrian air defense mechanism is essentially shite?
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May 5, 2013 20:38
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The Protagonist posted:^^^ How much stock do you put into the article he links claiming the Syrian air defense mechanism is essentially shite? Personally I think it's going to be one of those things that won't be certain until they actually start a bombing campaign in Syria.
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May 5, 2013 20:56
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Brown Moses posted:James Miller of EA Worldview has a good analysis Interesting take. I wonder how much of Hezbollah's military support was based on Assad allowing the transfer of weapons through Syria, and how much was just good will. If he ends up deciding that the risk of Israel crippling the regime isn't worth running guns to Lebanon, Hezbollah might take their ball and go home if that was their biggest motive to intervene.
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May 5, 2013 21:05
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Arglebargle III posted:Hey as this thread nears 1000 pages is there any chance we could get a new thread so that people (i.e. me) could get a What the gently caress is Going On post/OP? Seems like poo poo has really hit the fan in terms of international escalation but there are no other middle east threads and, well, 969 pages is a lot to wade through. http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2013/country-chapters/bahrain Human Rights Watch has their annual world reports for each country and those are basically a lengthy summation of every human rights violation and ongoing conflict from the year prior, those are extremely well researched and thorough, and a good launching point for more information. I just linked the Bahrain one as an example.
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May 5, 2013 21:20
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I'll admit this is just me being an internet armchair general, but.... Why isn't the US just launching a few dozen cruise missiles at various high profile Syrian targets of military importance? No need to target the chemical weapons directly (avoid accidental dispersal). It seems to meet the political criteria: 1. Sends a clear message to Assad about "red lines" with the promise of an escalating response should he escalate his use of chemical weapons. 2. Avoids placing American military personnel directly in harms way to appease a war weary public that is still focused on economic recovery. 3. Appeases the hawks in the US who don't want to appear weak to Iran or North Korea. Can't accuse Obama of making empty threats. 4. Is a single contained act, without need for further commitment, unlike say a "no fly zone". This makes it less likely to provoke Russia. 5. Is a proportional response to something the international community finds abhorrent (chemical weapon use), lending it legitimacy.
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May 5, 2013 21:39
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