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I've noticed that I've had some problems playing small two pairs recently and sometimes I think stacking off with overpairs where I shouldn't. I don't have the hand histories on me at the moment, but one hand recently I had 45 in the SB, board was A45. There are I believe 4 people in the pot, all limped. I bet out 4 BB (the pot), guy minraises me immediately after me. Everyone else folds. We both have ~100BB behind. How much money should I look to get in on this flop, without a specific read that he's a donk? Most people on poker.com tend to lean towards being weaktight. Anyway, I raised and he reraised and I called and he showed A4. Normally I would fold the 4-bet probably but he had just taken a big bad beat and I thought he might be tilting. Barring that though, is the line here 3-bet/fold, or do I call planning to check/call? That would keep the pot small but seems really weak and begging to get beat somehow. If I 3-bet and he 4-bets, I don't see anything I could possibly beat except a combo draw. Later on another hand I had was KhKc on a Jh5c5h board. One MP limper, one LP limper. I raise to 5x, SB calls, BB and both limpers fold. On the flop, villain checks, I bet pot (~$25), he checkraises me to like $60, I figure my choices here are really to push or fold, so I push, thinking he could be getting tricky on me since I tend to always bet those paired boards and almost always c-bet when headsup. I thought he might have a pocket pair 66-TT, or QQ (or even AA if he really doesn't like 3-betting preflop, and some people don't). He also could have something like maybe jack-broadway. He ended up flipping over 7d5d (lol) which isn't the point, but without reads, how would you normally play this hand? Could it be right to just passively check the flop, bet or call the turn, and check through the river, hoping to get action from a low PP or a jack? I guess the risk is giving a free card when there's a flush draw out there and an ace will lose the pot for you as well. I really need to get in here and post some more hands, I'll do that when I get back to my apartment. I think I'm mostly missing value/losing too much with overpairs, high pairs, good but possibly second best hands, etc.
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Feb 12, 2007 02:18
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 12:54 |
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Villain's in the BB so anything goes. Hands you're ahead of: K8, K9, K7: 9 hands 87, 89, or 79: 27 hands Semi-bluff combo draw, two clubs and a ten or six (more likely ten): Hard to quantify, but if he's aggressive he'll probably bet any Tx suited on the flop because it's a draw and you haven't shown any strength, and that wouldn't be a bad hand to semi-bluff jam the turn with. I'll say maybe 8 hands of these, but that's a little fudged. It's probably more in reality but it's less likely he'd play these hands this way anyway. 88, 99, 77: 9 hands Now, we have to weight the whole thing of hands you're ahead of down a lot because of the call on the flop. Basically, the only things you're ahead of, it would be weird for him not to reraise on the flop. BUT, people do slowplay some stuff til the turn. It probably decreases the chance he has something like 79 the most. The only hand out of all these that I think is completely reasonable he'd play this way is 77. So anyway, we'll go from saying you're ahead of over 50 hands to saying you're ahead of, I dunno, I think 20 is generous. That's saying that he'd play these hands this way 40% of the time he has them. If you want to make this analysis more thorough yourself, you can adjust these numbers based on your read of him. Hands you're behind: JT and 65: 16 each 65 I'm really discounting because weakness shown or not, who bets out a gutshot to the idiot end of a straight? JT I could see him playing this way. So, on the surface, that's 32 hands, but I'm also counting this as more like 20 because while I think him playing JT is completely reasonable this way, the line just doesn't make any sense for 65. So to me it looks like there's about 20 hands worth of combinations you're ahead of and 20 you're behind. Just on the surface there's a lot more POSSIBLE hands you're ahead of, but we have to discount them a lot because of the lower odds that he'd play them this way. If you think it's just impossible he'd play them this way then you're probably behind, but if there's a chance, then it's magnified by just how many more combinations of hands there are that you're ahead of. You also have to add in Harrington's Law, that there's always a 10% chance he's just completely bluffing. I dunno if that applies here but it makes me sound smart for mentioning it! Anyway, I'm gonna say it's a call, especially since even if you're behind you still have 10 outs to beat him anyway. Just to be thorough, let's think about what would have to happen for this to be a fold: So, if he's got two pair or a lower set, he's got either no outs or 1 out, so we'll say you're basically a lock in this situation, so the EV there if you're ahead of calling is the whole $183. Sometimes he might have a combo draw though and he'll still have outs in those cases, so I am going to be completely unmathematical here and guess this will reduce your EV to maybe $150 or so the times you're ahead. The reason I'm not working this out is because we'd have to make a lot of assumptions about how often he'd play a combo draw this way vs. a normal flush draw and all that poo poo. If you're behind, you've got a 20% chance to still win, so it's .20(183) + .8(-90) = -35.4 is your EV when you're behind. From our above calculations we said there was roughly about equal chance you were ahead and behind so your EV of calling was .5(150) + .5 (-35.4) = 57.3 In order for folding to be right, the chance of you being behind (which we'll call x) has to be high enough that the EV of calling is less than 0, so: (1-x)(150) + (-35.4x) < 0 150 - 150x - 35.4x < 0 150 < 185.4x 150/185.4 < x .809 < x So there's basically got to be at least an 81% chance you're behind to make folding right here. We estimated that there was about a 50% chance you were behind currently, so that would make it "call" in a landslide. How unlikely would he have to be to play the hands you're ahead of this way to make it a fold? Well, I'm glad you asked, because I have nothing to do for the next few minutes! Okay, so the raw number of hands you're ahead of is about 53, and the raw hands you're behind is 32. (Remember the 53 is already a little fudged since I didn't know how many draw hands to count). Anyway, the chance of him playing a hand you're ahead this way is x, and the chance he'd play a hand you're behind this way is y (basically this is just to discount the 65's). For simplicity's sake, let's go with our earlier assumption that there's a 25% chance or less he'd play 25 this way and say there's 20 hands you're behind, to make this easier. So, remember we got earlier that there has to be an 81% chance you're behind to make it worth folding, so therefore the ratio of things you're behind to ahead of must be about 4 to 1 to make it worth folding (.81 / (1 - .81)) = 4.26 So if x is the frequency he will play hands you're ahead of with this line: 4.26 = 20 / 53x 53x = 20 / 4.26 x = 20 / (4.26 * 53) x = .089 This means that you can fold if there's less than a NINE percent chance he would play the hands you're ahead of this way. If he's just the most straightforward of players and would never ever be tricky with two pair or a set like this and wait til the turn to get his money in, it's a fold. But if you think there's at least a ten percent chance he could wait til the turn then jam his money like this with hands you're ahead of, it's a call. (P.S. the real number is actually lower than this because a lot of players would play 77 this way a huge amount of the time, meaning he has to play the other hands this way less of the time to even it out). We didn't play with him so we can't make that decision for you, but this is how you solve hands. If anyone sees a problem with my math, let me know. I just got up and there might be mistakes somewhere. I also skipped some steps with the algebra, so if anyone hasn't done algebra in awhile and needs me to fill in the steps I'd be happy to, I just left them out because I'm lazy. These kinds of hands are pretty simple to solve the framework for, but nobody can plug in the numbers and get the real verdict but the person who was playing with them, and that's you. buffybot fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Feb 16, 2007 |
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Feb 16, 2007 15:54
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If he folded he'd be a complete moron. What did you want us to say about it, really?
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Feb 16, 2007 23:39
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If it's a consistent floater, you're not going to punish him by check/calling, you punish him by betting the flop then check/raising some turns. That way he's not risking just the bet he's putting in to take the pot, he's risking having to make a decision for more chips than he really wanted to. I'm not saying do this every time, and probably not here either (if a blank hit, it'd be fine), but I don't see how c/cing turns is going to stop him from floating you and tell him to shut the gently caress up like checkraising some hands would. Also, when I make these checkraises, I would be doing it with air fairly often, because if he's really floating you a lot you're not going to get called very much. Basically you're just trying to win your fair share of the money back.
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Jun 14, 2007 21:13
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