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starkebn posted:Google says the odds are 1:649,750 Those are the odds of a getting a royal in a 5 card hand, basically the odds of hitting a royal on the flop. With 7 cards the odds are 1 in 30,940 I believe. I agree with Prodan's hand analysis on the second hand, except I'm erring on the side of the guy most likely having JJ-QQ rather than unimproved overcards if he's a TAG. Preflop is a fold all day, especially after the 4 bet. Your 3-bet preflop is kinda gross and as Prodan says counter productive. Flop fold I agree with but I'm like the weak-tightest player in the history of poker so who knows.
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Feb 6, 2007 17:36
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 10:44 |
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simple posted:or fold, raiser is saying he got a piece of the flop (draw to flush or straight?), re-raise may not chase him off...  Am I reading this right? You fold overpairs to half pot bets on flops like that because you're scared of draws?I'm raising about pot size on that flop. You're not going to chase out flush draws at these stakes but that's not the point, the idea is to extract money from the flush draw for the 60-65% of the time when they miss (and under the assumption that you're not going to be paying them off in a big way when it does hit whereas they'll put in a ton of money with their 4-flush). By raising significantly you're forcing someone with a draw or overcards to make a mistake by calling. You're only behind a set or a straight, which wouldn't make much sense with the flop action (they'll usually go for a c/r since you raised preflop and act last on the flop, so you pretty much always c-bet here). This flop is a must raise situation.
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May 1, 2007 19:27
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rock2much posted:Did I play that right? Also this is a thread for NL cash game hands. Tournament critique thread is here.
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Jun 21, 2007 19:23
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Pizzlefish posted:you flopped a strong set Technically he flopped "sort of weak trips."  re: the preflop raise, is this full ring or 6-max? If it's FR I hate pumping JTs in EP, tight table or not. In 6-max I guess you're obligated to raise almost anything that makes a 20 in blackjack but in a full ring game it's just a silly play.
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Aug 22, 2007 07:05
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Cubicle Farmer posted:Standard fold here, or too timid? Better to bet/fold the turn or check behind? I think I should've bet more on the flop but I don't think it would've mattered in this hand. He could just be making a play, assuming you're C-betting and keeping up the charade on the turn. He could have been floating you with air intending to make a move on the turn and hit the ten (his big stack means he's probably a lot more willing to gambooool especially if he's a sub-average player.) He's very unlikely to have 2 pair or a straight, if he has a set or a flush then you'll lose some money and it sucks but you lose more long term by laying down big overpairs in spots like this than you'll ever lose paying off the occasional monster, epsecially at 5-max. If you are indeed beat, given his turn minraise, his river bet is likely to be small (twats who minraise also tend to bet way too loving small after c/ring), and you can roll your eyes and see a cheap showdown. Your flop bet is standard, as is the turn bet (I'm probably betting bigger, sometimes makes him less likely to make a move unless he has a real hand, protects your hand vs. a lone club, etc.) Checking behind on the turn would be completely foolish. I'd have to have a very very solid read (like the tightest nittiest opponent in the loving world with no tricky tendencies at all) to make that laydown that you made. If you're going to lay down aces in that spot you really shouldn't be playing 5-max, you'll get run over while you wait for the nuts.
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Oct 26, 2007 20:19
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Looks pretty standard to me. In 6-max there's absolutely nothing wrong with pumping it up with AT from the big blind in a limped pot (poo poo I do that at full ring a lot of the time too.) You're going to isolate against the limper more often than the SB but it's still a totally valid spot to throw in a raise. The c-bet is also fine, as is the turn bet, you just happened to run into a set. On the turn there's no reason to worry that you're outkicked, the only hands you have to worry about are something like A6 or a slowplayed set, which are both pretty rare. edit: I guess if anything I'd c-bet a little smaller on the flop, like 2/3 pot, and fold to a raise obviously. Lots of top pair type hands will just smooth call a pot bet but will raise a smaller one so you're not tempted to fire another barrel on the turn if they call the flop and the turn doesn't hit you. Also I'm pretty sure Mr. Toodles is a goon which of course means BET BET BET because goons are nits (at least that's how I play on Cake when I spot one heh.) Delysid fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Dec 13, 2007 |
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Dec 13, 2007 20:04
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Biggy_ posted:Limping sucks, why not raise it pf? I disagree here, raising 33 UTG is usually not such a good idea unless you're playing like 3 or 4 handed (can't tell from the way the hand is described), at 6-max it's a marginal move at best and at full ring it's a flat out unprofitable play. You either want to limp to try to get a multiway pot going and flop a cheap set, or just muck it outright because you're in bad position. You want to treat 33 sort of the same way as hands like weak suited aces and small to mid suited connectors, fold them from really bad positions unless it's the right kind of game, only limp early if preflop raises are rare and people are likely to be stacking off with top pair type hands on the flop. If you unconditionally open any pair from any position preflop (which I'm assuming since popping 33 UTG is pretty much the bottom end of that) you're going to find yourself hemorrhaging money on small pairs.
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Dec 19, 2007 19:52
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parre posted:You should definitely have bet chunky on that turn (do not check behind in this spot ever ever ever ever ever), you're giving a free card and if he has any heart he's got 8 outs against you, not to mention random straight draws he might have (although this is less likely obviously). You NEED to bet to force him to make a -EV call if he has a lone heart, or just take the pot down right there if he can do math. If he comes over the top on the turn then you have a decision to make but regardless of what you decide to do if he shoves you can't check behind.
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Mar 17, 2008 02:26
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Hand #1: Buy in full, keep a full stack at the table. Preflop is okay, a case could be made to raise it a tad bigger since it's microstakes and people will never fold anything that's a 20 in blackjack preflop but there's nothing wrong with 3x. This hand is totally and completely standard. What are you going to do, fold the flop? Not raise preflop? Aside from having a short stack there's no other way to play this. You got the money in as a big favorite, that's all you can do. Edit: he didn't hit a 5 outer I'm dumb Hand #2:  ... Way too big of a bet on the flop. You're betting $.32 into $.20 when you have a totally decent stack. You really never need to bet more than the pot unless you have like 2 or less times the pot in your stack and you're shoving. The fold is also gross, you have top 2, exactly 3 hands beat you, folding is just madness. Especially since you have an 8 and a 5, it's pretty unlikely he has 55 or 88 here, 88 especially since he'd have raised preflop unless he's insanely passive. Most of the time he has like A8 or a flush draw, if he happens to somehow have 22 or 55 it's just a cooler. But yeah in summary never ever ever ever fold here.
Delysid fucked around with this message at 05:37 on May 31, 2008 |
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May 31, 2008 05:29
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 10:44 |
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FrontLine posted:I've had a fair few frustrating bad beats* and it's made me wary of betting to much. You're probably having a lot of "bad beats" because you're always betting the absolute minimum (or simply betting way too little) and giving people huge odds to call with worse hands and suck out on you. Betting less to risk less when you think you have the best hand (you don't need to be 100% certain and it's rare that you will be) is the exact opposite of how you should be playing. If you bet too small when you should be protecting your hand you're basically inviting people to draw against your made hands. Not that that's even relevant to the hand you've posted, I'm just guessing it's a flaw you have with your game based on the statement you just made.
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Jul 21, 2008 15:45
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