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faarcyde posted:
Yeah, you can't do it that way. You need to compute the probability of an event occuring or not occuring. He only wins in the event he hits the turn or the river and you don't improve to a boat or quads. 1 - (prob. he wins) = (prob. you win) 1) On the turn he has 14 outs, since the 2  gives you a full house, and you can't double-count the A and 6 because they complete both draws.2) If he hits the turn, any 2, 3, 5, or turn card will re-improve you, so you will have 10 river outs. 3) If you both miss the turn, he can hit 13 outs on the river, since he can't the diamond of the card that came on the turn. So, he wins when he hits turn and you miss river, and when you both miss turn and he hits river. Him hitting the turn is 14/45, you locking it up on the turn is 7/45, and neither hitting is 24/45. River odds depend on what comes on the turn. So, odds of him winning is almost (14/45)*(34/44) + (24/45)*(13/44) = 197/495 = 0.3979* (Note: I didn't factor in the odds of a runner runner tie, and other very unlikely events. i.e. A hits on turn, 4 on river, and so on. They more or less cancel out or are negligible.) So you were roughly (1 - 0.3979) = 0.6021 to win once all-in, or 3 times out of 5. Sucks to lose, but it's almost a coinflip. kalensc fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Feb 4, 2007 |
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Feb 4, 2007 19:04
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 02:03 |
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jhu1e posted:I would definitely take a shot with a raise somewhere on a hand like that, but I would hate to end up with my whole stack in the middle on the flop. I'm not in the trap where I'm too scared of losing money anymore, but I always feel stupid when he turns over the set or w/e and the draw whiffs. Here's a way to consider this type of hand that should lower your reluctance to raise the flop. When you called the flop, were you planning on calling another bet on a non-spade non-A non-T turn? If so, raise the flop. You will gain folding equity, as well as improving the likelihood of a free river (perhaps for less than it would have cost to call both streets). Also, if he calls and you do hit the TP or flush, he will be less likely to put you on that hand and thus you might extract more value than had you called and only started raising once an obvious draw hit.
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Feb 6, 2007 10:34
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Morphius22000 posted:Standard cooler. Haha that was awesome. "I played perfect poker...FOR THREE DAYS WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY"
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Feb 8, 2007 09:53
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Here's a 2/4 Cake hand that had me a bit confused. The limper who calls behind and pots the flop was somewhat new to me (first time at the table, only seen 10 orbits or so). I had seen him play very aggressive postflop whenever he had raised preflop, and also a few times when he limped in position and a coordinated board came out. Couldn't recall a showdown of note, since I would have added that in my notes on him. The PFR was a standard shortie, raising with any pair or two broadway and shoving any flop. http://www.pokerhand.org/?809876 At the moment of the bet then re-shove, I figured that at best I was versus a strong draw that wasn't likely to fold in the bigstack, and underpair/KQ/KJ/QJ from the shortie. With my huge stack, I wasn't prepared to dance for up to 150BB versus this action, when I was sure to be presented with a far better spot not too far down the Cake road. I later had second thoughts about the hand, and realized there was something I hadn't considered. Those musings, and subsequently the results, are spoilered below. Thoughts: Perhaps I should have led out at the flop, but this is the kind of board where any KQ, Q9, 98, two clubs, etc is calling (maybe shoving), and I'm in an awkward spot. JT, 44, JJ, TT might smooth call and then again I'm in an awkward situation on the turn. Once I checked, the pot bet by the MP was a bit bizarre since it tried to scream strength, but he had to know shortie was shoving anyways, so it was almost a pre-emptive isolation play. I make this kind of lead often with a set vs a deepstacked pfr who I want to re-shove their overpair. Versus someone so short who you almost KNOW is going to shove any flop, this pot-sized lead perhaps should've been interpreted as villain having a mediocre hand or decent draw. Results: They had J9o and J8o respectively, and the bigstack took it down.
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Feb 10, 2007 09:07
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Morphius22000 posted:Ehh, I really prefer folding here, and here's my logic. Yeah, my flop decision was re-pot, which is an allin for the bigstack villain, or just fold and keep my investment at a tidy $22 and wait for a better spot. I've made a ton of similar folds on Cake the past few weeks (where I feel I'm slightly ahead, or way behind), and it's been working quite well so far so I went with my gut. This is up there with the tougher decisions though, hence my posting it.
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Feb 10, 2007 09:40
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EC10 posted:This seems fine. You picked up on weakness, but he still might have the best hand, so you "bluffed" with what may be the best hand. I agree. I've seen very very few Cake players bet out top trips on a non-draw board. Flat-calling the flop bet is great with people still to act, and allowed you to represent the A on the turn once it got HU.
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Feb 12, 2007 21:20
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MelvinTheJerk posted:If I'm holding a set, I call in an instant. Maybe AJ four the flush I call. QJ? There was too much out there beating me, and my hand isn't good enough to call what is obviously an INSANE MOVE. I fold to the insane move. David Sklansky posted:Mason Malmuth posted:Dmitri Nobles posted:
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Mar 14, 2007 00:31
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We ballin' now!
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EC10 posted:sup QJ and 67. and fold pre flop! I'm a bankroll nit, not a "committed to a chart of good poker hands" nit, you silly goose. 
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Mar 14, 2007 03:46
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Xyven posted:Fold call or shove. I really have no idea At 2/4 I see that move a lot by either a combo draw or a made but susceptible hand like 2 pair. The turn is such a blank I prob shove every time given that you aren't ridiculously deep, and the his range is heavily on the side of AQ/QK/JK/J9/Clubs+gutty/etc, with a slice of two pair or set. As played, on the river every draw or semi-strong hand is ahead but AQ and KJ (neither of which I think bet the river), so I dump it.
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Mar 18, 2007 00:39
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Morphius22000 posted:Raise more pf, push the flop, if someone is "going for the flush or trips" you want to get it in with aces. In order to give the best advice, readers would also need: 1) The stakes and size of the tournament 2) The stack sizes and positions of the players 3) Any reads you have on the villains 4) Preferably, spoiler everything after your shove. In order for someone to give an unbiased critique, they can't know any more than you did at the moment you shoved.
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Apr 10, 2007 07:30
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Arrg posted:I just played what I think was the best hand of my short poker career. 2nd hand of a 9 man $1.20 SnG. No, you didn't. There is so much value for high pocket pairs preflop, especially at low buyin SnGs. People will call with any ace, any suited cards, any pair, any two broadway. In the future raise these premium hands to 3-5BB preflop. Poor players are too loose preflop, they will call for 5 BB almost as often as they will 2 BB. Also consider purchasing Harrington on Hold'Em Volume 1, if you are interested in playing multi table tournaments as you progress in poker.
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Apr 13, 2007 05:09
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Psyduck posted:I prefer the jman-rootbeer if you have Ad and not offsuit AQ. Just to be clear, is the jman-rootbeer the 1/4pot weakish turn lead to induce float-shoves? Edit: Never mind, read EC's earlier post which cleared that all up. kalensc fucked around with this message at 05:16 on May 4, 2008 |
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May 4, 2008 03:52
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 02:03 |
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Assuming he's decent, he knows he showed down A-hi not too long ago, so your value-raise/shove range should be wider than usual, and he'll talk himself into calling a lot of worse hands, especially with those odds. The turn tank-call plus river lead is a bit weird, although KJ/JT/T8 and butchered 66/KT will fear you checking behind on that river I suppose. How long did he take to fire the river anyways? If he wasn't a bit fpsy, and hadn't shown down the A6, it would be incredibly close on whether to call/shove, but here I'm pretty happy to stick it in.
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Apr 8, 2009 19:32
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