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Das you're never folding for 100 when the pots 300 there. It just a cooler if he has a set/87.
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Jul 6, 2011 06:23
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Ranma posted:
Doesn't sound like you have the image for this even against these nits. After his b/c on flop his range is pretty draw heavy. Board is too wet for him to have a set after b/c on flop isn't it. I guess it could make sense if he was crazy enough to be afraid of set over set or if it was QQ he might slowplay some % of the time. J9 gets there on turn and when he minraises again it seems likely. Strange for him to have that if he's as tight as you say. It's a just about an exactly break even call on the turn but as you said he's folding if the heart rolls off on the river. I'd b/f turn. Board: Qh Td 2h 8c equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 77.016% 76.03% 00.99% 1037 13.50 { QQ, TT, 22, KhJh, QTs, J9s, QTo, J9o } Hand 1: 22.984% 21.99% 00.99% 300 13.50 { 9h4h } AARO fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Sep 14, 2011 |
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Sep 14, 2011 22:05
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MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:We're getting 5.3 to 1 so we need 15.9% to call. Somehow I did the math wrong and I thought we needed around ~22 1/2%. Obviously you're right then, can't fold turn if you can correctly do 6th grade math.
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Sep 17, 2011 17:41
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No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com MP1 ($100) MP2 ($125.49) MP3 ($99.50) Hero (CO) ($100) Button ($42.63) SB ($120.23) BB ($100.58) UTG ($99.79) UTG+1 ($42.50) Preflop: Hero is CO with Q  , Q 5 folds, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2 Flop: ($9.50) 5 , J , 2 (3 players)BB checks, Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50, 1 fold Turn: ($22.50) 3 (2 players)Hero bets $10, Button calls $10 River: ($42.50) 6 (2 players)Hero bets $28.33, Button calls $23.13 (All-In) Total pot: $88.76 I've been running into a lot of spots like this lately just wondering if the thinish value on river is correct? Vil is a maniac 65/37 7% 3b 20% f2cb on f 75% f2cb on t. Only 75 hands tho so stats are kinda unreliable. If I check river I'm calling a shove so I might as well bet to stack all his jacks? Better yet just jam turn? I just bet small because he seemed to call with anything on the flop but fold turns and also his stack size. AARO fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Oct 14, 2011 |
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Oct 14, 2011 18:27
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It's probably somewhere around a breakeven call getting considerably more +ev the more 3s are in his range.
AARO fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Oct 16, 2011 |
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Oct 16, 2011 20:28
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ZeroStar posted:I would say A4-A2 is borderline never in his range, and 22-55 are also not in there often but much more often than A4-A2. Reasons being, people fold 22-55 UTG sometimes, they fold to 3bets often, and they like to trap this flop. A4-A2 doesn't open raise pf, folds to 3bet, same thing really but you see them so rarely preflop. This guy is on tilt though. So I think he can definitely have those A2, A4 and A5 hands. He can have almost anything after spewing off $800 in $100 increments. He almost never ships here with a flopped straight or set (maybe 22 some small %). I think he has a 3 or 67 a considerable amount. But most likely it's a 5 or 66-99. If that's the case. Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.519% 69.00% 01.52% 762372 16747.50 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, A5s, K5s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, A5o, K5o, 76o, 65o, 43o } Hand 1: 29.481% 27.97% 01.52% 308973 16747.50 { AKo } But as you add 3s to his range it gets better. Even with 22% its a breakeven call. Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 60.323% 58.99% 01.34% 1289382 29235.00 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, A5s, K5s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 75s+, 73s, 65s, 52s+, 43s, 32s, A5o, K5o, K3o, 93o, 83o, 73o, 65o, 52o+, 43o } Hand 1: 39.677% 38.34% 01.34% 838068 29235.00 { AKo } That's probably way too many 3s. It really depends on his level of tilt. OP have you seen him play total crap hands like 93 before? You can probably even put some AT-Ak hands in and then its: Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.550% 47.82% 03.73% 1448658 113011.50 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, AJs+, A5s, K5s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 75s+, 73s, 65s, 53s+, 43s, AJo+, A5o, K5o, K3o, Q3o, J3o, T3o, 93o, 83o, 76o, 73o, 65o, 53o, 43o, 32o } Hand 1: 48.450% 44.72% 03.73% 1354719 113011.50 { AKo } AARO fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Oct 17, 2011 |
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Oct 17, 2011 04:55
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Maugrim posted:These are stakes I play (pretty badly) so I don't really feel qualified to comment, but the first hand looks poor to me. A3 is fine for stealing but 7.5xBB is enormous. It looks like these are 5nl hands so he's opening for 3x. hand 1 is good. hand 2 bet river hand 3 is way too thin on river. You're getting value from what A9 and AT? Just check. hand 4-just fold the flop at 5nl. AARO fucked around with this message at 12:33 on Dec 4, 2011 |
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Dec 4, 2011 12:19
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discstickers posted:Local casino 1/3. Effective stacks are $200. I'm in SB with QQ. Cbet this flop. Usually somewhere around 1/2 pot. Bet turn a size that you can put vil all in on river for 2/3 to 3/4 pot. River is probably c/f.
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Dec 20, 2011 20:17
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MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:Flatting pre is worse than 3betting in this spot sooo.... I really agree with this. Wondering though, do you have a calling range in sb in this spot? I mean a against a co steal from a reg who you have very little history with and who doesn't think you're full of poo poo. AARO fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Jan 7, 2012 |
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Jan 7, 2012 00:14
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Merge, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. BTN: $65.01 (130 bb)<------unknown 32/32 has 3bet last 3 btns but only 23 hands. Hero (SB): $50.00 (100 bb) BB: $12.89 (25.8 bb) MP: $40 (80 bb)<------fish CO: $64.92 (129.8 bb)<------bad reg Hero is SB with 9 9MP posts BB OOP, MP checks, CO raises to $2.25, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $17.12 I think folding in this situation can't be right giving that they are both full of poo poo so often. Didn't want to call and play a guessing game. Probably c/fold incorrectly on turn so often. Just wondering if people agree 4b/c is best? e:Also I have not 3bet since btn has been at the table. AARO fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Feb 16, 2012 |
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Feb 16, 2012 21:08
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I'd want to know how long he's been at the table with you and what has gone on in that time. What does he think of you? Hands that beat you. JJ 3bets pre on btn a good percentage so lets just give him 1 of the 3 combos. 88 (3 combos) 55 (3 combos) KJo (5 combos) K8o (4 combos) KJs (2 combos) K8s (2 combos) =20 total combos. Hands you beat. You having the Ac in your hand hurts a call as it gets rid of like 8 of his fd combos. A2-A7cc and A9cc, ATcc. But there are at least 20 combos of missed sc/sg FDs especially with the 1/2 pot bets on flop and turn. 43cc-97cc and Q7cc+( and more like 27 if you include hands like J7cc taking this line on the river. A good % of his sc and suited gapper hands have a jack in them. I guess he can still do this with some of them but I think some of the jacks maybe just call. Does QJcc do this?) ~23ish hands you beat. There's also 2 combos of AKs and 2 of AKo remaining. I really don't think any of his other kings jam but some may disagree with me. 4 combos you chop with. There's also gonna be some random 8x/99 type hands that he's turned into a bluff some percentage of the time on the river. Probably a call. The thing I don't like about this though is that while each of these hands you beat is certainly possible for him and in his btn range he's definently not calling with all these hands 100% of the time whereas with the range that beats you he is. He's never folding KJo pre on btn but is sometimes not gonna call with 75s. So its actually pretty close I think. I'm pretty interested what the others have to say about this hand. AARO fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Feb 20, 2012 |
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Feb 20, 2012 16:47
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Trivial call because you have Ad.
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Mar 2, 2012 14:24
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Yeah don't raise the flop if you think he'll fold a lot. Even though it would look stupidly strong/fishy, you could just MR turn and jam all rivers including a ten. Although I think I like your line slightly better cause you get him to put it in with more tens specifically hands like KT or T9. Most of his tens have a pair, which I guess he can't fold on the river, so it probably makes little difference. AARO fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Apr 11, 2012 |
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Apr 11, 2012 19:57
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This is a very benign question. Do any of you have any advice on how to not spew when playing lower than your normal stakes?
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May 23, 2012 19:12
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You're $1200 deep with CO but what are the whales stack sizes? If you're already deep with the whales it makes me more inclined to fold. e: pappa what are you saying? You thick CO raised wide into 2 calling stations so that hero would fold and he could bluff the stations later in the hand? This after hero has shown tons of strength by raising early and cbeting into 3 people? Or are so saying CO is trying to get hero off his probable overpair while simultaneously going for suicidal thin value with the whales who'll possibly call with worse than whatever CO has? Basically I don't know what you're talking about. AARO fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Jun 1, 2012 |
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Jun 1, 2012 14:54
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Mind_Taker posted:Why flat there? The only card I'm really happy about on the turn is a diamond and I think it'll be really hard to get paid off there unless he has the K I really cant see any flaw in your logic here. I mean maybe he can do this some small amount of the time with JJ or QQ with a which would then pay you off if you hit but outside of that and Kx it doesn't seem like you have any implied odds. A lot of the time he's gonna have a small flush/set which aren't gonna pay you off almost ever if you hit. It's a really lovely spot. AARO fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jun 2, 2012 |
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Jun 2, 2012 22:50
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Vil is is tightish raising 60% SB calling 28% BB and 3b 12%. Vil only folds on to flop and turn cbets 30%. Kinda weak tight station. He's probably playing this way because I'm drunk and 3bing 64% while opening 95% in SB. PokerStars - $0.50 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com Hero (BB): $94.81 SB: $198.24 SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50 Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 5 ASB raises to $1.50, Hero raises $3.50 to $5, SB calls $3.50 Flop: ($10.00, 2 players) 9 5 AHero bets $9.50, SB calls $9.50 Turn: ($29.00, 2 players) 5 Hero bets $16.50, SB calls $16.50 River: ($62.00, 2 players) 9 Hero bets $63.81 and is all-in Easy river jam correct? If I check I have to call and he'll check back with a bunch of Ax hands that probably would've called my jam. AARO fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Jul 15, 2012 |
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Jul 15, 2012 18:02
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I agree, looks good to me.
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Aug 1, 2012 22:12
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Vil is 16/16 over how many hands? That almost has to be such a low number of hands that it's nearly irrelevant information. If we do have a sample on him how often does he fold to 3b pre? If he calls too many 3bs then 3b JJ pre. If he's folding everything but the hands that beat us then flat.
AARO fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Aug 16, 2012 |
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Aug 16, 2012 05:15
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PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com Hero (Button) ($30.19) SB ($40.07) BB ($9) UTG ($25) MP ($24.12) CO ($27.47) Preflop: Hero is Button with XX UTG bets $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold Flop: ($2.50) 10 , 6, 2 (3 players)SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.79, SB calls $1.79, 1 fold Turn: ($6.08) J (2 players)SB checks, Hero bets $3.48, SB calls $3.48 River: ($13.04) K (2 players)SB checks, Hero bets $9.25, SB raises to $34.05 (All-In) SB is Spasms. Not sure if he still posts here. He's got really lag stats and I know he's good. UTG is a weak tight regfish. What's the worst hand you call the shove with? Also what's the worst value hand SB should do this with? Also, I have no idea what SB thinks of me cause it's zoom and he only has 100ish hands on me. AARO fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Sep 11, 2012 |
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Sep 11, 2012 13:41
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TheAbortionator posted:
I'd probably bet AJ on the river. Don't know about a weaker J. I'd 3bet an utg fish with AQ on btn a lot of the time. The thing is Sb has like 100 hands on me only so I really have no idea how often he thinks I do anything. Zoom with 100 hands he could see me as a total nit or a maniac depending on which hands he was present for. HEM/pokertracker really needs to make a reverse hud feature so that you can see what stats vil has on you (providing he's had a hud running on all hands you've played together). Also I started the hand with $30 while Sb started with $40 so its only actually $15 more for me to call his shove. AARO fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Sep 11, 2012 |
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Sep 11, 2012 20:16
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*** RIVER *** [T 6 2 J] [K] Spasms: checks hero: bets $9.25 Spasms: raises $24.80 to $34.05 and is all-in hero: calls $14.92 and is all-in Uncalled bet ($9.88) returned to Spasms *** SHOW DOWN *** Spasms: shows [J J] (three of a kind, Jacks)hero: shows [A 5] (a flush, Ace high)hero collected $59.38 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $61.38 | Rake $2 Board [Th 6h 2c Jh Kc] Seat 1: hero (button) showed [A 5] and won ($59.38) with a flush, Ace highSeat 2: Spasms (small blind) showed [J J] and lost with three of a kind, JacksSeat 3: minojkaAA (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: XBOCT-CAMAPA folded on the Flop Seat 5: tashthemom69 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: princeawful folded before Flop (didn't bet) I guess i was just wondering what I would do here with 22 though. It seems like you guys would snap. But I almost feel like I could fold that hand. His hand looks so much like a flush/set to me. AARO fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Sep 12, 2012 |
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Sep 12, 2012 18:25
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But what about what you said before.quote:We could easily have a lot of airy hands that get checked to on flop and bet, then we picked up some heart equity and bet again. Then river came another overcard and we bet again. I mean I guess I can see cr/c against me and cr fold against utg on the flop. But if he does call the flop, raising the turn looks crazy. Especially when he hits top set how is he supposed to get value from my bluff heavy range? Which is why I'm wondering if he would have played the hand perfectly if he had just called the river with anything less than a flush. AARO fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Sep 12, 2012 |
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Sep 12, 2012 18:42
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Ok that makes sense. And I think you're right about flop cr being best for him. Because if a draw doesn't hit I might call him down with any ten when he check raises flop after the pf raiser doesn't cbet and then I bet on btn. He can defiently put me on air and cr with overs or any gutshot etc. Thanks guys. Sorry for the cooler Spasms. AARO fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Sep 12, 2012 |
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Sep 12, 2012 18:59
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Snap call. He's got a bunch of missed draws and over pairs. I think raising is too thin.
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Sep 13, 2012 12:27
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I like calling river but I think raising is better than folding. Especially if he's seen you fold to a 3bet pre he can easily have flatted the btn with TT+. That's a lot of combos. That mixed with all the draws you can't ever fold here.
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Sep 14, 2012 13:55
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JJ is really hard. Moose how would you go about sizing to get it in on the flop? AARO fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Sep 14, 2012 |
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Sep 14, 2012 19:03
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Fold the AQ. QQ nh. I will say tho, at even slightly higher stakes if you cbet 1/2 pot on this board a lot of regs will raise you with any decent fd causing you to fold a lot of your range. Yuu might wanna cbet bigger on really wet flops like this. I dont think that's really cogent to 4nl tho. AARO fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Sep 19, 2012 |
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Sep 19, 2012 18:32
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Yeah just raise to ~70/call shove on flop. Jam all turns if he just calls flop.
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Oct 2, 2012 18:20
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What would you be c/r that board with for value?
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Jan 28, 2013 03:43
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If his 3b% over 400 hands of 6max is only 5% that's kinda nitty. What's his 3b% in blinds? If it's low I might flat pre too. It's also pretty important what your stats look like on his hud. Anyways, never 4b fold AK for 100bb. AARO fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Mar 2, 2013 |
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Mar 2, 2013 02:50
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Are these hands zoom? People do seem to have slightly tighter ranges in these BvB spots in zoom. In none of the hands are you just straight bluffing from the sb, whereas at a regular table you're going to have K3s sometimes. But I'm not sure how much that consideration is effecting the BBs ranges at 25nl. You're likely just going to need a lot of hands so you know how often they're 3betting vs sb steal. Some of the regs don't care much about battling for the blinds and also figure that if sb had nothing (K3s, etc) he would've just quick folded a bunch of the time. Therefore, it's less valuable to 3b light. And then you're going to find people that are 3betting vs sb steal way too much. Until you get a huge amount of hands you're not going to know how often these guys are 5 betting in these spots but I guess if they're 3betting that wide they're going to have to be 5bet bluffing some. Basically I don't see how it could be bad to play the hands the way you did vs these guys. The way you play the KQ/AT hands are clearly about it being bad to call 3bets oop. I wonder if it could ever work to just call their 3bets oop with ATs type hands if it was less you had to call in the first place. You raise to 2bb (instead of your 2.2bb) they 3bet to 7bb or 8bb. I wonder if you can just call that sometimes and then c/r all backdoor str, fds, gutshots ect. You probably have to be able to pretty confidently call down on a lot of boards when you flop a pair. I probably hate this but I just wanna consider it.
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Apr 6, 2013 18:03
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Just shove over the guys flop raise. this way you don't even have to hit a bunch of the times when he folds and you're also not left in the stupid position of having to check fold the turn when you miss. Calling with draws oop sucks and you probably shouldn't do it unless you're pretty deep.
AARO fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Jun 30, 2013 |
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Jun 30, 2013 02:30
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Mind_Taker posted:Live $2/$5. Villain is a solid winning regular who plays very straightforwardly against fish but mixes up his game against better players. He likely sees me as a winning regular though probably not as good as him. Also he knows that I am a looser player. Effective stacks are $1300. This looks really good to me. Really like the river bet. Makes it really hard to play QQ against you and makes you really balanced so you can bluff in this spot. I probably fold if he bets river. Also I'm not really sure what he can c/shove for value here. Is he almost always doing that with AK? Another thing is your hand kind of looks like ATs or what it is to a certain degree. Against certain kinds of aggressive tricky players who turn decent hands into bluffs, I think you can even bet/call but I'm pretty spewy. B/f is almost certainly best. AARO fucked around with this message at 10:52 on Jul 1, 2013 |
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Jul 1, 2013 10:38
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a
AARO fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Aug 16, 2013 |
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Jul 7, 2013 23:50
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Maha posted:Thanks, guys. More info for the people who asked for it: I don't really like any of our options here. I guess I hate calling turn the least but what do we do then when BB jams? Also utg doesn't cbet tons so AK+/air is pretty much his range. Maybe fold. Its a lovely spot.
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Jul 21, 2013 06:42
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It kind of looks like to me that you played both hands perfectly. It sucks to c/f river on 2nd hand. It's also really a good for you to appear balanced if you make thinish value bets like this. So the way you played the hands looks good to a spewy regfish. E:Out of curiosity what level do you think a player should be able to beat steadily before their commentary on hands is valuable? For example I can't beat 200nl online and have a small winrate at 100 over a sample size. To me 200 regs seem way better than 100 regs. Perhaps that is a lot in my mind but it seems much harder for me to figure them out. Should I even be commenting on 2/5 live hands (which I suppose is comparable to 100nl online?) before Ive really beat that level? AARO fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jul 24, 2013 |
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Jul 24, 2013 13:56
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You can win steadily at 1/2 live without ever slowplaying. The main reason to slow play when you have a good hand is so that you can balance and protect when you have a medium. But you don't need to be balanced against some random Guido you're never going to see again. Did you have some reason to believe that he was especially likely to fold to a pre flop 3 bet? If not just 3 bet pre and, as long as you don't get raise, just bet bet bet.
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Jul 24, 2013 14:58
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In spite of the higher edge, live play basically is gambling in several orders of magnitude more then online play simply because you can get a year's worth of live hands online in a week. I think the way higher edge trumped by the way higher variance. I'm really starting to think that you should have at least 50 buy ins for live play. Last year I ran 4k below eq at live 1/2. Getting it in with 85% hands again and again and losing. But in total for the year I played around only 2000 live 1/2 hands just going going once or twice a month. That's about the same amount of hands I get in 3/4 hours on stars with 6 non-zoom tables. 20 bi downswings are common and people shouldn't think that it can happen to them just because they're playing live and the other players play in an obvious way. So Alterac. You shoulda snap got it in with QQ there. But I suspect you don't have 15k For 2/3 in just disposable income to use as a bank roll. So you can't play properly. AARO fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Sep 20, 2013 |
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Sep 20, 2013 14:49
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 21:49 |
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I tarcked my games with an app and used pokerstove at home. The game here is 1/2 but no buy in limit with $600 stacks being the average and usually at least one guy having 1500/2k. It doesn't take all that many hands to run 4k under in these games. And I think that that's just a common fallacy. If you're actually running under EV then that means that what you did was correct. If I was presented with the situations again I would make the same decisions and over the long term I would profitable because of it.
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Sep 20, 2013 15:23
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