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Inner Light posted:Hey everybody, I'm pretty much at my mental stop loss for the significant amount of Fun Bucks I have in SPY shares. Should I go ahead and exit now or will I miss the big comeback? A few thoughts:
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Apr 26, 2022 22:12
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Ola posted:It's funny in an absurd and infuriating way the way the rhetoric plays out. "There's no inflation....only small inflation...big but just temporary effects...yeah it's big now, but these things are impossible to predict". To be fair to the Fed this stuff really is hard to predict and the situation was unprecedented (the last major US pandemic having been 100+ years ago, in a much different kind of economy). I had no particular agenda in mind and just wanted to get it right and thought the major inflation was going to be more of a transitory blip than a wave... Oops.
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May 5, 2022 13:47
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Leperflesh posted:I bonds have 0% real returns. Everyone gets that, right? Sure, but I suspect the conclusion you're drawing from that might not be the best one...
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May 6, 2022 02:56
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Inner Light posted:Is there a consensus best explanation so far on why SPY and the rest of the indices are going to get hit this week and have been getting hit for 6+ mo? I don't know about your first part but from a bird's eye view, increases in the risk-free rate generally make pretty much every existing income-producing asset less valuable. And the Federal Reserve is saying that they're not going to be shy with hiking the risk-free rate to tamp down inflation, and in fact have already started that process, so...
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May 9, 2022 14:25
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:It's a good time to buy because stuff is on sale now... right? Maybe. It depends... a bag of poo poo on sale marked down 70% is still a bag of poo poo and you don't want to be left holding it.
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May 9, 2022 22:45
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punk rebel ecks posted:Should I sell the stocks and get little of what money I can get or are they likely to go back up after the war/covid end? Well, when you bought them, what was your trade thesis? Does it still hold, or has it been disproved in the meantime? No one can really predict the future with certainty so you probably won't get a good answer to the exact question you asked. My advice would be "if you think those stocks are garbage, sell them."
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May 11, 2022 13:59
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ranbo das posted:But I know that there are financial instruments for literally everything. Does anyone know where I can find a sheep based security? If you're truly interested in buying one of these, please make sure it's investment grade, i.e. rated Baa or better
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May 16, 2022 13:36
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One of the stocks I own just got a short report published against it this morning. That's exciting. https://www.sprucepointcap.com/reports/amr_research_thesis_5-17-2022.pdf
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May 17, 2022 17:13
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The Fattest PI posted:So my question is, am I hosed? You'll be fine.
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May 17, 2022 21:01
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drk posted:Where was it that Elon was supposed to start getting margin called on his overleveraged TSLA position? They're down like 45% this year after another huge drop today. No one knows the exact number but Musk and Morgan Stanley but it's way, way, way lower than where shares are trading these days.
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May 20, 2022 17:52
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pseudanonymous posted:Does Berkshire Hathaway actually generate any alpha not due to size and synergies between properties. Yes. There was a paper some years back that decomposed BRK's returns into a) their non-controlling interests in public stocks and b) everything else. Pile a) still generated excess returns. Things may have changed since then but that's still at least like 40 years of outperformance just on the public stuff.
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May 25, 2022 23:09
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I might just put on a pair trade, short AMZN buy QQQ, Amazon split trade sure seems crowded edit: I won't do it but let's see how it goes. As of 6/3, 9:35 AM, pretend I did this: short $10,000 AMZN at 2,467 long $10,000 SPY at 413 I'll update this in a month. Edit: if you closed the position above after a month your SPY long would've been worth $9,231 and the AMZN short $8,882. So, a nice little $350 gain there on a position with no net cash outlay. The SPY long also would've thrown off $38 in dividends too. Agronox fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Oct 1, 2022 |
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Jun 3, 2022 03:23
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Man Musk posted:Praise these bags full of oil producers and energy firms Nice job. Pretty difficult to have positive returns so far this year unless you're in energy or shorting stuff.
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Jun 3, 2022 23:38
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FistEnergy posted:Today is very funny. Looks like it will be a hilarious summer! As long as we're all having fun... Here's something that's pretty crazy: https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1535261098949152768?s=20&t=w7ojN0EuoNozWK1fOsEnxQ I wonder if this is a result of short memories, strong propaganda, or just the fact that you probably see where SPY is and how much a gallon of gasoline costs every day versus unemployment numbers and GDP growth once a month or less. Because the underlying strength of the economy is pretty impressive right now, by the numbers. Is anyone here bullish right now? I feel like I'm one of the most optimistic and I'm just kind of neutral.
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Jun 10, 2022 18:50
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Femtosecond posted:Whenever we do bottom and the bull market returns, does it make sense that XLE is gonna be a laggard on the upside? If people have been using XLE as a flight to safety, then presumably they'll cycle out of it and sell when they want to get back in on tech shitcos? Too many unknowns. Besides, I'm not sure people are going to XLE as a flight to safety so much as that fund's holdings are gushing cash right now...
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Jun 13, 2022 20:58
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Rummaging through the dumpster and nibbling on some SOHO preferreds
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Jun 14, 2022 23:01
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Hadlock posted:This has been bouncing around in the back of my head, trying to put this into words Yeah, the term in econ is Marginal Propensity to Consume. And true, MPCpoor > MPCrich quote:TL;DR if the poor were no longer poor, prices would skyrocket because there's not enough carry capacity on the planet to provide that kind of lifestyle for everyone Be careful because this line of thinking takes you to some pretty dark places. The good news is that so far throughout history your TLDR statement hasn't really been true. And if, today, it means that some guy in West Texas is paying more to drive his F-250 on his 100 mile daily commute because he's now competing for gasoline with an Indian who can afford a moped for the first time in his life, fine. Anyway, to go on topic... today's the first day all year I actually felt like just hitting this cool button that IBKR gives you:  So I'm curious how close to capitulation others are.
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Jun 16, 2022 20:32
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The Anime Liker posted:The thing is they didn't target teens at all. Teens figured that poo poo out.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/juul-vaping-lawsuit.html
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Jun 23, 2022 18:12
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GWBBQ posted:The acquisition of Datto was finalized the other day, and each share will be paid out $35.50 (not bad considering I paid $23). The symbol $MSP is no longer listed and the money is sitting in my ETrade account with Datto's CUSIP identifier as the symbol with the last traded price listed rather than the payout amount, which is not available as cash. I don't see any fine print in the SEC filing about a waiting period. Is there a standard wait after an acquisition or is this just something that takes a few business days to process? Sometimes, depending on your broker and the transaction, a corporate action might take a few days to settle. If that CUSIP hasn't turned into cash by Tuesday you should call them. Nice trade, btw.
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Jun 26, 2022 02:01
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ilkhan posted:What are the remaining good options if one wants to bet against home developers over the next year or two? Shorting XHB is probably the easiest thing.
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Jun 26, 2022 03:10
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GWBBQ posted:It did, in fact, turn into cash today. Excellent, glad to hear everything worked out with no problems.
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Jun 29, 2022 04:01
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If anyone's feeling not-great about their trades/portfolio this year, take note: you're very much not alone! https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1542603903195385857
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Jul 1, 2022 01:58
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drk posted:Can anyone explain why a profitable company would have a P/B < 1? That's actually a really difficult question to answer. Part of it is that investors still remember 2008, when Citi was burned hard, part of it is that in a situation where they'd actually liquidate they'd be unlikely to get book value for their assets, part of it is large banks are notoriously difficult to analyze and even going through every footnote to the financials it's hard to get a sense of their true derivatives positions and how they can blow up. Part of it is, if you're a bank with a ton of long duration fixed-rate assets and haven't been able to hedge away all the interest rate risk, those book values are going down right now. quote:I would think a P/B way under 1 would especially make a bank look like an attractive takeover target, but maybe thats not possible for regulatory reasons or something. It is practically impossible for C to be acquired, because of regulatory reasons. One of the successes of Western bank regulation in the aftermath of 2008 was putting the "too big to fail" banks under stricter supervision and safety measures. As a result, Citi has to maintain, among other things, higher capital buffers compared to most of it's competitors. At least from a regulatory perspective, the incentive for megabanks is to get smaller, not bigger.
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Jul 1, 2022 04:45
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shame on an IGA posted:re: ENOB, the YOSPOS bitcoin thread really nailed the zeitgeist of the market yesterday Related: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo
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Jul 6, 2022 17:24
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Space Fish posted:Whole lot of green out today, how are the livestock? The bulls seem to be waking up a bit. The mood seems to be shifting toward something of a soft landing. Very curious what the Fed does later this month... But in any event it's nice to see some green on the screens. Things were getting a little depressing there.
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Jul 7, 2022 20:29
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Hadlock posted:We've turned into a hovercraft, what indicators do you see that would imply inflation is coming back down in the next two years Rate hikes have hit the brakes HARD on home price appreciation, WTI is off 15% from its peak, the price of many industrial materials is down big. YoY comparisons are likely to start looking much better within a few months. And the rate hikes aren't over.
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Jul 7, 2022 22:42
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Hadlock posted:Presumably it's a really simple contract that says You don't need to presume. You can read it. It's filed on Edgar.
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Jul 10, 2022 04:08
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cirus posted:"After burning millions of dollars we now understand clinical trial design" is quite the take It's amazing. Penny pharmas are the best.
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Jul 18, 2022 17:16
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ARTPUP posted:Bought another 380 shares of SESN @.65 today. It's a pile of cash selling below book. But you can't get that cash, and they're likely to burn it.
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Jul 19, 2022 17:25
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Pour one out for an old thread favorite (dating back to like... 2005?). The SAFM acquisition closed today and Sanderson Farms is now private and part of a joint venture with a Cargill subsidiary.
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Jul 22, 2022 18:32
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Hadlock posted:Should I sell my oil stuff ahead of earnings Dunno. A lot of these still gush cash at $90 WTI, and the SPR releases end in October. Anything can happen I guess but I own a fair chunk of IXC and plan on holding it a while. edit: if you're very cynical, consider selling soon and going long after the midterm elections Agronox fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Jul 25, 2022 |
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Jul 25, 2022 20:08
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Pastrami posted:People here still alive? Conspicuous lack of posting these last few months. Has everyone given up? Asking for a friend Been in this thread close to 17 years now, I will never stop posting  But it's been pretty quiet lately. The things I owned a few months ago are largely the same things I still own now. I have a bunch of earnings coming up tomorrow, and one I'm particularly curious about is SOHO coming up on August 11. Nothing's screaming at me to buy or sell it right now. I could be missing something. What've you been up to, pastrami?
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Jul 28, 2022 00:51
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ExecuDork posted:One of the companies, I'm going to call XYZ You can freely say Calix. It's Calix, right? quote:I have a couple of questions. First, has anyone here seen something like this before? I imagine the issue of a large number of shares suddenly appearing on the market, owned by many small investors, might lead to a lower share price in the short term because many of those small investors might sell their shares more or less immediately to pocket the difference in price (i.e. that 2.5% discount). Currently XYZ has a market capitalisation of just under A$1B and if the company hits their funding targets then suddenly there will be A$40M, or about 9 million more shares available. Presumably, instead of a couple of hundred thousand XYZ shares trading each day there might be a few million traded in the first day or two, so the price might get rather volatile (I think?). Maybe I should be buying a put for my existing shares, instead? This kind of thing happens in the US, but it isn't exactly commonplace. Often it's in the form of a rights offering--the company will provide shareholders the right to buy a certain amount of shares at a certain discounted price level. And sometimes that right is actually tradable in the markets like a share would be. In the US when there's something like a rights offering the shares will generally (but not always) trade down to the price of the offering, at least in the short term. As you'd expect, people want to lock in the arbitrage profit by selling. Buying puts is unlikely to help you. Assuming the Aussie markets are reasonably efficient, put prices will have adjusted to take the new offering into consideration. You'd probably get whacked hard on the spreads in and out anyway. quote:Second, the letter that describes the special program in detail and includes the application form (I choose how much money to send them) is covered head-to-toe in big warnings about the United States, as in "NOT FOR RELEASE OR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES" and declarations that nothing in this offer is in any way associated with the USA. It's only for residents of Australia and New Zealand who owned XYZ in mid-October. Does anyone know why they might be so careful to ensure nothing about this special program is happening in the USA? Does American law prohibit this kind of thing? American securities laws are actually really strict about this... If a company offers to sell shares to US investors without going through the US '33 Act registration process, they can face a ton of potential liability. So yes, it's not uncommon to see offering documents from across the seas plastered with big screaming "AMERICANS NO" disclaimers in bold font. It's definitely a legal thing and not a red flag or anything.
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Oct 27, 2022 05:58
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Grem posted:So Twitter is getting delisted. What happens if you use something like Robinhood or webull, do they pay you the price when it gets delisted? I don't have Twitter stock but but seems like something that would not be fun to navigate. It's pretty straightforward. The TWTR shares disappear from your account tomorrow morning. Probably that day (but possibly as late as 2-3 days later) the $54.20 per share cash shows up.
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Oct 27, 2022 16:07
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In celebration of BFC's new mod, and in recognition that this thread is now a dozen years old and has 2,700 pages, I'm hoping to finally re-write the OP and start a new one, likely by the end of the month. I'm thinking something that touches on the basics of the following topics:
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Nov 17, 2022 17:45
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Speaking of which, two things I can use help with... 1. The previous iteration of this thread went from 2007-2010. But I know there was at least one trading thread before that, because I posted in it. Can anyone find it? I don't think it's in BFC. It was probably closed in September or October of 2007. 2. If anyone here has any thoughts on their brokers, whether good or bad, I'd like to put some in the next OP. So let me hear 'em! What's good or what sucks about Robinhood or TD or whatever?
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Nov 22, 2022 01:11
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It's confusing because "margin" refers to like three separate but similar things, but so long as you aren't running a negative cash balance you won't be charged margin interest. In other words, in the example you use, if you have a $100k account that a) bought $100k t-bills and then b) wrote SPY puts expiring in a month, there wouldn't be any margin interest charged to you because there's cash sitting in the account (i.e. the premium from those puts you sold). If those puts are later exercised against you, you would at that point be sitting on a bunch of t-bills, a bunch of SPY, and have negative cash so you would be charged margin interest then.
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Nov 24, 2022 14:44
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New thread for this decade is up: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4018317
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Nov 25, 2022 20:46
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