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The government of Bahrain's strident claims they're trying to prevent sectarian riots simply make it more clear they're trying to undermine any call for reform as mere sectarian troubles. The attempts to incite sectarian violence to prevent political reform hinge on Sunni solidarity. The shiite majority in Bahrain needs to pull in some sunni faces publicaly to remove the regime's cover.
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Feb 17, 2011 22:42
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Brown Moses posted:It really sounds like the government has lost complete control of Benghazi. Libya is really an interesting case since you(perhaps I'm being pessimistic here) really would expect the sort of military crackdown we're seeing from America's close personal friends in Bahrain. Instead, and it is hard to know for sure since there are so few sources of information, protesters seem to be gaining steam and physically expelling the regime from cities. If it succeeds I'd really love to read a book examining what actually happened because these glimpses are fascinating.
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Feb 18, 2011 17:41
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I don't think Bahrain is trying to calm down the revolution though, it is trying to turn it into an explicitly sectarian conflict. The dangers of that boggle the imagination given the shiite populations along the coast, but if that's what the Sunni leadership of the gulf states want to do they'll have the full support of Saudi Arabia. According to the guardian liveblog, funeral practices in Bahrain usually take three days. The governments insistence on violent repression could set up a martyr cycle as we saw during the Iranian revolution. Unfortunately the gulf states have a bigger stick in the form of borrowed Saudi thugs. In that case though, what happens in Southern Iraq ia going to be incredibly interesting since that shiite group is going to be a hell of a lot harder for the Saudi's to crush.
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Feb 18, 2011 17:52
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Space Butler posted:They'd have to get things through the security council to do anything more, wouldn't they? I don't see that happening anytime soon. China generally would veto any attempt to interfere with "internal security" issues.
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Feb 18, 2011 19:12
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Sivias posted:So basically, Saudi Arabia is hosed. Every single nation around them are going through uprisings. Except Oman and the UAE, and Kuwait (Although the protests in southern Iraq can probably count as Kuwaiti protests to some extent.) No, the problem isn't that Saudi Arabia is hosed, it's that Saudi Arabia will attempt/is attempting to repress protesters in neighboring states, which is a big loving deal in foreign relations. Even if they try and do so under the radar I wouldn't be surprised if it was discovered rather rapidly. Saudi Arabia itself is probably fairly stable at the moment. Also, for any of the arabic speakers http://libya.blog-video.tv/ this is reportedly a Libyan pirate radio from Benghazi after the protesters took effective control over the town. Is it possible to get confirmation on that or what they're saying?
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Feb 18, 2011 20:17
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Patter Song posted:If I might make a 1789 analogy, Saudi Arabia is playing Austria to Egypt's France: S. Arabia is the bulwark of reaction and the Old Regime and is very intent on suppressing revolution and disruption in its neighbors. It doesn't bear up under great scrutiny, but I think the basic idea is there. You could make a similar comparison between it and the Soviet unions response to reformist movements in Eastern Europe in the middle of last century. While again it doesn't bear much scrutiny the imbalance of forces is much more evident than between Hapsburg Austria and revolutionary France. quote:That's interesting. Is there any news on the demonstrations on the west bank? I remember hearing something about Palestinian factions calling for unity. Could this lead to some violence against Israel, or are those calls for peaceful unity? Anything could lead to violence against Israel given the reactionary nature of their government. The specific situation of Palestinians in the West Bank though is fairly far removed from that then those of even the most autocratic of Arab regimes given the divided political leadership that is in the middle of it's own internecine combat and the military control which Israel imposes over the West Bank to begin with. Palestine is, in my view, very much the rump of whatever happens in the rest of the Arab World here, not the flash point. farraday fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 20:26
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Galewolf posted:I am in Tripoli, Libya right now and seems like things are escalating from "nothing to see here, move along" to "oh poo poo, hope i can catch next flight to not-loving-here" pretty fast. There is only two internet providers here and both of their main services are down or keep going on and off. Right now, i am using a very lovely 3G and seems like the main system is down. Semi facetiously, in Libya what date are we calculating from for the Time-taken-to-depose-your-autocrat race?
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Feb 18, 2011 21:08
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Narmi posted:With regards to Saudi Arabia, I'm not surprised that they're taking a more aggressive stance in Bahrain. Remember, when Mubarak faced the possibility of losing that (roughly) $2b in US aid if he didn't step down or implement reforms, the Saudis pretty much said whatver happens, they'll support him and give him the money if the US pulls out. They even got a few other gulf states to pitch in. Our close personal allies are without question the entrepot of reactionary Sunni autocracy. Oman and Jordan are currently my hopes for peaceful reform. I don't have too much to back it up on but i have the impression both autocratic regimes there are strong enough to recognize their personal authority would not be undermined by more democratic government while not being incredibly inclined toward a crackdown. I could be wrong of course, I didn't see this level of brutality coming from Bahrain either.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:30
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There's already a lot of civil unrest in China, especially in the agricultural areas, it's just not clear how much is directly aimed at the central government instead of local usage of those policies. It's also not clear that such discontent is focused enough to mount any sort of threat to the central government. China may be a barrel of gunpowder, but it seems to be a wet powder for now.
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Feb 20, 2011 21:09
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Violent revolution is never pretty, but at this point it's hard to see how Qaddafi secures power if his mercenary forces just got crushed. Anyone more familiar with Libya have any idea where Qaddafi could pull out a counter-revolutionary corps to fight any anti regime force coming form Benghazi?
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Feb 20, 2011 23:11
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Xandu posted:But it wouldn't be enough at this point I'd imagine. Military nomenclature is fairly flexible, but generally a brigade isn't really enough.
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Feb 20, 2011 23:14
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I'm willing to support another Barbary War as long as the ending treaty includes a modern version of Article 11 from the Treaty of Tripoli.
farraday fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Feb 21, 2011 |
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Feb 21, 2011 01:50
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I love this. AJE blog quote:6:46pm: Al Jazeera, alongside specialist technical investigators, have pinpointed the source of its signal blockage to a Libyan intelligence agency building, south of the capital Tripoli. The network's website has also been blocked in the country, with Libyan users getting the message: "File does not exist" when they try to access it. AJE to Libyan protesters "Please sack this building, thank you"
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Feb 21, 2011 18:02
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You know, it would open a massive can of goddamn worms and be a massive headache for everyone, but at this point I wouldn't feel too bad if Tunisia and Egypt worked together to gently caress up Libya's Air Force and Navy.
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Feb 21, 2011 18:21
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It isn't really genocide so much as it is bloody and ineffective repression. I have a feeling the fact it is ineffective is breaking support for the regime faster than the fact it is bloody.
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Feb 21, 2011 18:27
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Nonsense posted:It won't end the protests but he is wantonly massacring the population, and surrounding countries should strongly consider mobilizing fighters over the country. Some Lebanese pilots are already confirmed detained by the Maltese. Libyan not Lebanese right? I don't disagree, it's just fairly difficult to do so since multilateral agreement takes time and the only states that could do so unilaterally immediately are, I believe, Western, especially the US. I would say that Egypt taking the lead in shutting down Libya's repression would probably give the military some serious revolutionary credibility with their own population. Edit// Libyan state TV "Gaddafi's son is forming a committee to investigate the incidents happening in the country." 
farraday fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Feb 21, 2011 |
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Feb 21, 2011 18:38
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AJE: The Libyan pilots in Malta are basically defectors who refused to fire on protesters.
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Feb 21, 2011 18:45
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korranus posted:I hope it's actually NATO. For aforementioned Diego Garcia or Missouri reasons. It's probably too hard to identify where he actually is for a mission from stealth bombers.
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Feb 21, 2011 18:50
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"10:52pm: Two military planes reportedly land at Benghazi airfield - after their pilots refused to attack the city, our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic tell us." Cross your fingers for a Free Libyan Air Force. In a wider view, Libya may be doing more to discredit Arab dictatorships then the collapsed regimes in Tunisia and Egypt did.
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Feb 21, 2011 22:58
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thiswayliesmadness posted:Those two looked like they had the ever living poo poo beaten out of them before being forced to go on air and 'confess'. No, that's just what you look like if you've been mainlining Tunisian rage drugs.
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Feb 21, 2011 23:47
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The-Mole posted:"Don't believe what he was saying, it was very lousy speech" That's a great line, although I'm not sure I buy everything the expat is saying on AJE.
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Feb 22, 2011 00:04
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Magic internet box... is the US Senate naming these things now?
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Feb 22, 2011 00:09
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Young Freud posted:The Egyptian air force was in Mubarak's pocket, remember? They're the ones who did the low-altitude flyby of Tahrir Square to harass the protesters. Mubarak is gone though and I think there would be no way for them to reestablish themselves faster with the Egyptian populace then protecting protesters in Libya. The problem is if that becomes an excuse for reactionary forces, ie Saudia Arabia, to justify interfering with other protests in the gulf states.
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Feb 22, 2011 00:13
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Mr.Showtime posted:I really doubt that the new governors in Egypt wants to get involved in a war of any kind but that might just be me. There are wars and then there are wars. Being the well compensated Arab point man for preventing crimes against humanity in Libya is fairly different from invading.
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Feb 22, 2011 00:22
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Mr.Showtime posted:If you think the military in Egypt wants to get its hands dirty and hurt relations with pretty much every other country in the region you are a crazy person. You completely failed to understand my post, but thank you for responding.
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Feb 22, 2011 00:29
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When I wrote well compensated Arabic point man apparently everyone decided to read "and no one else". The reason Egypt would be point is because the western countries who would want to react would want as much Arabic cover as physically possible. Meanwhile, despite frankly silly claims Egypt is still just being run by Mubarak men, they do not want the civil unrest caused by denying cooperation to an international effort to aid protesters in Libya would cause in their own cities. Egypt ends up well compensated through diplomatic agreements that have it's air force act as the public face of any international effort to close off Libyan airspace and the west gets to "do something" without creating impressions of Imperialistic invasion. Or you could just say I want Egypt to invade Libya. That's close I guess.
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Feb 22, 2011 01:04
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Mr.Showtime posted:You lost me here cause you don't know what you're talking about. Don't be obtuse. Mubarak wouldn't have done half the things that have happened so far in Egypt. Claiming it is all a power shuffle with nothing changes is just paranoid conspiracy theorizing.
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Feb 22, 2011 01:10
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Mr.Showtime posted:Just because a few concessions have been made doesn't mean the same power brokers aren't running things hth. Yes, nothing's changed, you're absolutely right. Well done you spotted the secret conspiracy.
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Feb 22, 2011 01:13
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I see a few more benefits. First, it removes the most imbalanced part of the use of force on protesters. You're providing them effective air cover exactly at the point where wide segments of the country are out of the control of the central government and there appear to be mass movements from the military away from Gadaffi. You effectively remove the ability of Gaddafi to interdict ports and border crossings which have fallen out of his control, opening them to relief aid. The Turkish flight that had to turn back from Benghazi for lack of ground air control is a telling indicator here. If you control the airspace you can bring back ties to the outside world for the protesters.
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Feb 22, 2011 04:35
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You know, screw winning jeopardy, if someone could just get a loving transcription program that worked well we'd be doing great. I'm tired of trawling through video archives for stupid poo poo people have said. Sorry. Anyways, I wouldn't be too hard on those who defect rather than take up arms to fight the regime. Removing hardware from the regime's control is a victory in and of itself.
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Feb 22, 2011 20:53
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One of the most interesting parts of the Libyan protests has been the rapid disintegration of the government. The regime seems to be unraveling from the ground up, which is both incredible and terrifying.
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Feb 22, 2011 21:19
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Namarrgon posted:I'm watching some old white middle-east experts on TV right now who isn't sure yet whether Gaddafi is going to lose this one. He mentioned the kiss Gaddafi got from a soldier at the end of his speech as an example for the military's love for the colonel. Well that's perfectly valid. Arabs love dictators. Qaddafi is a dictator. Arabs love Qaddafi. I mean, it all scans perfectly.
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Feb 22, 2011 22:34
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ChubbyEmoBabe posted:Ohh wait...egypt burned? Ohh my when did this happen? Looking from Tripoli toward the east you see lots of smoke and fire across the Gulf of Sidra, obviously it must be from Egypt.
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Feb 22, 2011 23:30
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Xandu posted:I don't know if the Libyan military is that capable at this point, but fair point. It really is difficult to know what they can do. Not simply because of probably unrealistic paper strength, but because we don't know what individual units are doing or who they're tied to and what they're thinking. The situation is simply incredibly messy. However, I would guess that someone who wanted to defect in an airplane probably has a pretty good chance of making it out. Edit// The presumption that forces loyal to Gaddafi have full control over the air defense system seems highly premature. farraday fucked around with this message at 01:36 on Feb 23, 2011 |
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Feb 23, 2011 01:33
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Kaymaster posted:According to this, Libya does have somewhat capable air defense network, including a few SA-5s that could prove dangerous, but the question is how well integrated are they and how many of the Early Warning and Engagement Radars actually work. They do have some heavy equipment, but without the possibility of an operational SA-20, tactical SEAD shouldn't be a problem for just about any modern Air Force. You hit the few EW radars and fire control center vans they have operational and you pretty much take-out their entire SAM network, minus a few line-of-sight SAMs that may be manned. Stay above a certain altitude and MANPADS shouldn't be a problem. AJE live blog quote:1:55am: Peru becomes the first country to formally severe all diplomatic ties with Libya. President Alan Garcia said: Peru why you gotta make me love you? Edit// The problem with the point on air defenses is it presumes the air defenses over the protesters are in the hands of forces Loyal to Gaddafi. That may(or is probably) true in Tripoli, but I doubt it's true in Benghazi or the east in general. Really though I hope anyone planning for the eventuality is able to get a lot more information on the situation in country. farraday fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Feb 23, 2011 |
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Feb 23, 2011 01:45
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Kaymaster posted:Yeah, very true. Unfortunately, radar blips won't tell you who is manning the SAMs. I'd kind of doubt they're being manned at all. Air defenses aren't usually a huge priority in a violent internal rebellion. If eastern Libya starts to organize it may become a concern.
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Feb 23, 2011 01:51
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whoflungpoop posted:Trying to not recklessly post unconfirmed reports, but I've been watching this guy on the libya17feb live stream from inside Libya (when it's up). His accounts and his contacts' accounts from within the country have been pretty accurate so far. AJE is reporting this as underground cells, which makes more sense then how it's described in the twitter. Onto other things that are going to end badly in Libya quote:8:19am @AbdulHamidAhmad, the editor in chief of Gulf News, tweets: Whelp, he's probably already dead.
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Feb 23, 2011 07:37
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Brown Moses posted:I imagine many eyes were rolled when he said that. I want to be the Emir of Derna, are they accepting resumes? Also, I have a lineage going back decades and I promise to limit my virgin bodyguard to no more than 5. Great use of quotation marks by AJE quote:5.34pm: Italy predicts that some 300, 000 Libyans could flee to Europe "if" Gaddafi falls.
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Feb 23, 2011 16:48
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Brown Moses posted:In that case, gently caress them. I don't know why, it's so much more convenient when your most wanted list arraigns itself.
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Feb 23, 2011 17:11
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Namarrgon posted:I'd be really surprised if the death toll is lower than 10k. Have you guys been watching the same revolution? Participant and bystander estimation of numbers are notoriously unreliable. Humans also survive some crazy poo poo. 10k casualties at this moment? Yes, absolutely. 10k deaths? Much harder to accept without backing.
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Feb 23, 2011 19:11
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