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Pureauthor posted:In many ways, Egypt was in a far better position to pull off a peaceful revolt than a lot of the the other Arab states. This is only going to get uglier for a while. I am actually rather optimistic about Libya. Its army is similar to Egypt's in that it is conscript-heavy, and the society does not have the sectarian split of the gulf states. I also have a feeling like Gaddafi has enough crazy mental flexibility and residual political capital to maybe pull off resigning gracefully into an elder-statesman role. All he really has to do is declare the success of the revolution which he led, the maturation of a new generation, and grab a bunch of people to form a constitutional convention. Then he leaves with enough of a mixed legacy to spend his retirement jetting around and making speeches. A Kissinger of the maghreb if you will. This last bit is also why I'm optimistic about Egypt's generals wanting to preside over a successful transition to legitimate, well-crafted civilian rule. Sure, they could go for being the next Mubarak, but the gig might not last so long. On the other hand, if they do the right thing there's a chance of being as revered as George Washington. We'll have to see which way they go.
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Feb 18, 2011 18:21
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Narmi posted:There was a Lybian writer interviewed who claimed that the mercenaries that had been captured said that they had been promised $30,000 dollars each, so I doubt there's a shortage of thugs they can hire. I'm going to reverse my earlier optimism about Quaddafi's chances for pulling off a soft landing. I'm also going to predict that the army is going to react poorly to foreign mercenaries attacking their countrymen. Maybe I'm a soft westerner, but $30,000 wouldn't be enough for it to be worth it to get shot by the Libyan army.
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Feb 20, 2011 04:33
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Ham posted:
At reasonable distances where you're sure that you aren't about to shoot down an airliner of fleeing expats, the AIM-9X is a drat capable missile. The other noteworthy thing is that according to Wikipedia, the Libyan air force has a grand total of 12 planes remotely capable of air to air combat against modern jets. Two of those are in Malta. Also, the Libyan air force has a track record of being not very skilled. I think if Egypt were to move to protect its citizens living in Libya, its air force would prevail. Certainly, this could lead to difficulties and the country has to take care of its own issues, but I certainly wouldn't bat an eye if the odds were evened up a bit for the protesters.
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Feb 22, 2011 03:45
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GnatKingCoal posted:^^^ You know the kids in school are gonna call her FACECOCK or FACEBOOT. ^^^ As far as I can tell, it's not a trademark, or it has become genericized. Your recipe is actually what Napalm-B is. About 40% by weight of polystyrene with the remainder as gasoline with enough aromatic hydrocarbons to dissolve it. It has better rheological properties, higher heat transfer, and burns longer than the original formula. Keep this info handy in the event of tanks in the streets.
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Feb 24, 2011 02:51
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cioxx posted:
Could someone post a translation of the caption?
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Feb 24, 2011 20:48
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^According to Wikipedia, the town's population is 291000. Assuming a very modest 10 gallons of water per capita daily consumption, one gets into a very large amount of water quickly for any reasonable size of reservoir to buffer through the dry season. Assuming that the plan is for acute poisoning rather than having sufferers of Itai-Itai cursing Qadhaffi's name decades hence, one needs something like arsenic or cyanide. For cyanide, you'd need something on the order of 100 mg per person, so about 30 kg. However, you'd need to multiply that by the number of days supply in the reservoir, since otherwise it is too diluted or it's all in the pipe leading out of the reservoir and can be flushed out.Roark posted:
Maybe also, people who have a commissar pointing a gun at them from off camera. It makes me wonder exactly how they're doing that giving out of guns. I wonder how many of the people receiving them are people who are good enough actors to get armed by the dictator that they're about to overthrow?
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Feb 26, 2011 23:19
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farraday posted:If the airforce were willing to fly in the first place. In these last few days there hasn't been reports of concerted air strikes. I think the high profile defections are keeping Khaddafi from trusting giving pilots enough gas to get to Benghazi and back, since that's more than enough to reach Malta or Italy one way. Even with the closer settlements it's a hell of a risk compared to slapping a gun in the hand of a mercenary and telling them to shoot until their paychecks stop coming. Yeah, this makes me wonder exactly what went down in the plane where the crew ejected rather than bombed civilians. Even with minimal fuel for a bombing mission, if they hit the external stores jettison button the decrease in weight and aerodynamic drag from letting the bombs and rocket pods fall into the desert would make it possible to reach a neutral airport, saving the new government the cost of a plane. Most charitably, their pre-flight briefing may have included mention of SAM batteries with orders to shoot down deserters. Other possibilities include a unilateral decision by one of the crew leaving the other with a very loud and windy airplane, and possibly an auto-triggered ejection seat - I don't know how they are wired on that plane. Lastly, it could have been mechanical failure followed by a parachute ride where options were considered. In the present situation, I think what is needed is humanitarian relief to Benghazi and the other liberated cities, and a no-fly zone enforced with a mix of the actual few fighters needed and strike aircraft that the mercenaries can hear flying overhead and contemplate exactly how much it means to get paid money that they may not ever spend. Similarly, if recon footage of positions around Sirte were delivered to the rebel alliance, I would not call it outside meddling. Ultimately, there will be accusations that it was a CIA plot even if not a single cup of milk is delivered, so we have to look at realities rather than appearances.
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Feb 28, 2011 08:16
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Furious Mittens posted:I've also heard that the EU & the US are trying to devise a plan for a no-fly zone that utilizes air power from another Arab country rather than flying their own patrols. They see this as a better alternative that doesn't insert unneeded Western military influence into the equation. Given the recent advances by the rebel forces, it may be worth considering minimal intervention strategies. One idea, gas up the Libyan planes on Malta, replace the air-to-ground rocket pods with air-to-air missiles, apply a rattle-can roundel with the old flag's colours, and let the Libyans lead the enforcement of their own no-fly zone. Also, set up defection-corridor safe zones and leaflet these routes with copies of the Malta approach chart over Libyan bases. I'm starting to realise that although too little intervention would lead to more of a bloodbath, too much intervention would prevent this from being an ultimate referendum by the Libyan people.
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Feb 28, 2011 17:40
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Toplowtech posted:It's true but fact that their government is a family could also be their main weakness. King Abdullah is 86 years old and his health not that good anymore (herniated disc, i think?). I wonder what would happen if a succession crisis between Nayef, Salman or any other son of Abdul-Aziz started in the current political context. Also, in any absolute monarchy, there's the possibility that the next day could bring a Prince Gyanendra / Hamlet - style succession crisis.
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Mar 1, 2011 03:44
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Jack Napier posted:Shredded mountains There are many things that Arabs and Persians do not see eye-to-eye on, but I hope that Egypt takes note of the great success that Iran achieved in reconstructing this style of shredded documents following the revolution of 1979. Even by hand, it is possible if it is not completely destroyed. Today, with scanning and image-matching software, it should be greatly facilitated. I have great hope that it will all be reconstituted, entered as evidence where and when needed, and then kept as an archive similar to the records of the former East German STASI.
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Mar 5, 2011 23:54
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Ace Oliveira posted:And nobody will call out the Saudi goverment on their horrible atrocities, because of their massive oil production. Nobody will try to stop them. What would Hassan as-Sabbah do?
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Mar 16, 2011 15:00
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