Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

BBC posted an article with a map showing who control what:

Also, haven't seen any mention of this before, I know that shops have been closed for awhile now, or open intermittently at best, but the country might start to run out of food soon:

quote:

The global body's World Food Programme has warned that the food distribution system is "at risk of collapsing" in the North African nation, which is heavily dependent on imports.

source

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 00:12

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 20:38

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Apology posted:

Another example of "You set off a firecracker so we're going to respond with dozens of giant missiles."

I'm surprised that Hamas hasn't learned that they're never going to accomplish anything through force, since they'll ne4ver be able to amass enough, against Israel. Given what's going on in their neighbours, you'd think they'd realize that peaceful protests could accomplish a lot more than all the rockets they've thrown at Israel.

Then again they are religious fanatics, and those aren't known for listening to reason.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 00:58

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Just out of curiosity, has the Patriot Act been repealed yet? If not, is there any plan as to how long it'll stay around?

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 01:35

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

News sources reporting that the UN Security Council adopted Libya sanctions resolution unanimously:

quote:

The UN Security Council has unanimously imposed sanctions on Libyan regime, ordering an arms embargo against Libya, a travel and assets ban on Muammar Gaddafi and his regime and a crimes against humanity investigation into the Libya bloodshed.

The council made a new demand for an immediate end to attacks on civilians by Gaddafiloyalists which it said had been incited "from the highest level of the Libyan government." The UN says more than 1,000 people have been killed in the unrest.

The travel ban and assets will target the 68-year-old Libyan leader, seven of his sons and daughter Aisha, other family members and top defence and intelligence officials accused of playing a role in the bloodshed.

Sixteen names are on the sanctions list.

The council ordered an immediate halt in arms sales to Libya and referred the civilian attacks to the International Criminal Court because it said the deaths "may amount to crimes against humanity."

No word of a no-fly zone unfortunately.

e: Forgot the link.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Feb 27, 2011

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 02:36

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Yaos posted:

You can't repeal something in the Bill of Rights.

How is the Patriot Act in the Bill of Rights? I thought it could be repealed, or declared unconstitutional. It should expire sometime this year (it was set to expire in 2 days, though it almost got enough votes for a longer extension).

Cjones posted:

Has it been repea-hahaahahahahah

I was trying to make a point to THE HORSES rear end.

Anyways, back to protests. There's been recorded protests in Vietnam now, though unlike China the timing is probably coincidental.

quote:

Al-Jazeera reports that about 100 farmers whose lands were seized by the government and others seeking basic rights held up signs in a silent protest on a street in Ho Chi Minh City. They were all taken into custody and at least one was seen being beaten by police.

Video of the protest/story can be seen here.

VVVVV My bad, though he might've been serious there for a second.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 05:16 on Feb 27, 2011

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 05:03

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

harskarenjag posted:

But Qaddafi and Ghaddafi sound completely different. Which one is correct?

What Brown Moses is getting at is that they're technically ALL right.

wiki posted:

Because of the lack of standardization of transliterating written- and regionally-pronounced Arabic, Gaddafi's name has been transliterated in many different ways into English and other Latin alphabet languages. Even though the Arabic spelling of a word does not change, the pronunciation may vary in different varieties of Arabic, which may cause a different romanization. In literary Arabic the name معمر القذافي can be pronounced /muˈʕamːaru lqa�ˈ�aːfiː/. [ʕ] represents a voiced pharyngeal fricative (ع). Geminated consonants can be simplified. In Libyan Arabic, /q/ (ق) may be replaced with [ɡ] or [k] (or even [χ]); and /�/ (ذ) (as "th" in "this") may be replaced with [d] or [t]. Vowel [u] often alternates with [o] in pronunciation. Thus, /muˈʕamːar alqa�ˈ�aːfiː/ is normally pronounced in Libyan Arabic [muˈʕ�mːɑrˤ əlɡ�dˈd�ːfi]. The definite article al- (ال) is often omitted.

An article published in the London Evening Standard in 2004 lists a total of 37 spellings of his name, while a 1986 column by The Straight Dope quotes a list of 32 spellings known at the Library of Congress. ABC made a post on its blog identifying 112 possible spellings. This extensive confusion of naming was used as the subject of a segment of Saturday Night Live's Weekend Update on 12 December 1981.

"Muammar Gaddafi" is the spelling used by TIME magazine, BBC News, the majority of the British press and by the English service of Al-Jazeera. The Associated Press, CNN, and Fox News use "Moammar Gadhafi". The Edinburgh Middle East Report uses "Mu'ammar Qaddafi" and the U.S. Department of State uses "Mu'ammar Al-Qadhafi", although the White House choses to use "Muammar el-Qaddafi". The Xinhua News Agency uses "Muammar Khaddafi" in its English reports. The New York Times uses Muammar el-Qaddafi.

In 1986, Gaddafi reportedly responded to a Minnesota school's letter in English using the spelling "Moammar El-Gadhafi". The title of the homepage of algathafi.org reads "Welcome to the official site of Muammar Al Gathafi".

In short, the alternative spellings for each part of his name are shown in brackets:

Not all combinations are possible, but most are.

e: If you want, you can play around with Google Trends to see what's more popular where. For example, worldwide, Gaddafi is the most popular way to spell his name by far, followed by Gadhafi. In the UK, they just use Gaddafi, and Gahafi is hardly mentioned; in France it's Khadafi, with some Gaddafi tossed in.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Feb 27, 2011

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 12:04

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Sounds like the rebels are going to be hard to shift, and Gaddafi's regime probably doesn't have the time to seige the city, or spare resources to focus on taking back one city.

From what I understand, they are rapidly running out of food and don't have the infrastructure to produce enough since they rely heavily on imports. Hopefully they won't run out completely before this is over, but right now their supply routes are disrupted so it's not going to get any easier. The longer Gaddafi holds out, the worse things are going to get for everyone around him.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 14:57

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Cjones posted:

Anybody have that video of those libyans in protest singing and swaying?

This one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgP0Gro52c8

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 19:47

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Speaking of China, the BBC's journalist/photographer there wrote an article detailing what happened during the protest from his point of view. Not going to quote the whole hitng, but this stuck out:

BBC posted:

Without warning they shoved and pushed the BBC's cameraman. They grabbed at his camera and tried to rip it from his hands, bundling him a full 50 yards into a police van. They had earpieces in and were also taking orders.

Then the thugs turned on me. My hair was grabbed and pulled by one of the state security goons.
Continue reading the main story

They tried to pick me up and throw me bodily into the van.

I found myself lying on the floor as they repeatedly slammed the door on my leg which was still part of the way out of the truck, one, two, three times, maybe more. A few shoppers looked on in confusion.

The same thugs climbed into the van and threatened us again as we were driven to a nearby government office. Our details were taken and we were told we could not do interviews in the area because of "special circumstances".

Asked what the special circumstances were they ignored the question. And when told we did not want to do interviews, only take pictures, they again ignored us.

There were more foreign journalists there too. But it seems we got off lightly. One cameraman was set upon by five men who kicked, and punched him in the face, he had to go to hospital for treatment; another had his hand injured.

I guess their leaders are afraid there IS a possibility that the people could topple the government, and are trying to squash any and all dissent even more than usual.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2011 04:23

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Libyans have been fairly consistent that they don't want military intervention. Humanitarian aid and supplies is one thing, but any foreign power that tried to move in, even if it were to help them, would likely be resented. Especially since they got this far on their own, and have shown they're willing to go all the way regardless of the cost.

e: Found this on NPR:

quote:

NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro said the vote is being met with a more muted response among anti-government protesters in the liberated east of Libya. They welcomed the U.N. action, but feel the international community didn't move until foreign nationals were evacuated out of the country. Protesters also made clear that they do not welcome foreign intervention in Libya.

"They don't want to be rescued, they don't want any military intervention," Garcia-Navarro reported from Benghazi. "They have done this themselves, they say, and they will get rid of Moammar Gadhafi finally themselves, as well."

There was also a letter someone sent to AJE (probably from the national council), that basically said the same thing: aid is welcome, military intervention is not.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Feb 28, 2011

# ¿ Feb 28, 2011 05:10

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Frozen Horse posted:

Also, in any absolute monarchy, there's the possibility that the next day could bring a Prince Gyanendra / Hamlet - style succession crisis.

I believe the king set up some sort of committee to choose his sucessor if something were to happen to him, given that the crown prince is as old as he is. Of course, whether people actually abide by that decision once he's gone is another matter, but presuming they do (and they have every interst in not causing succession disputes, since it would basically be the goernment turning on itself), there would be a fiarly smooth transition of power.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2011 03:55

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

TheBalor posted:

Well, supposing the cracks do occur and the House of Saud is overthrown, what are these consequences that could occur? Obviously the calculus of power in the region would change; it seems like every time I hear of some regressive or anti-democratic movement in the ME, it can be traced back to the house of Saud.

It would make Iran the regional power givent he two compete for influence in the Middel-East (seriously, they are fighting a proxy war in Yemen). Wikileaks even released a cable where the Saudis were urging the US to take out Iran.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2011 04:12

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Spiky Ooze posted:

Sounds like all Gaddafi has left are random, poorly skilled people he's thrown money and guns at. They suck at recapturing anything. I'm just surprised they don't desert him but maybe they're just playing him like a fool to get paid a bunch of times and mostly run around shooting at the air.

He still has the Khamis Brigade, which is his trump card. From all accounts it will stick with him till the bitter end.

wiki posted:

The Khamis Brigade is a special forces brigade of the military of Libya which is loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of leader of Libya since 1969. Led by Gaddafi's youngest son Khamis Gaddafi, the 32nd Brigade had been called "the most well-trained and well-equipped force in the Libyan military" and "the most important military and security elements of the regime" in leaked U.S. memos.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2011 16:11

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

New map from the BBC:

source

I guess that Misrata and Zawuya are firmly in the hands of the people by now, especially with the new defections that took place. Hopefully Janzou and Zuara get a blue square when the map is updated.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2011 16:20

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

AJE has an article outlining the intentions of France, Russia, UK and the US for military intervention in Libya. Quite a bit has been mentioned before, but it summarizes each coutry's opinion nicely.

Here's the gist of it:

US - has ships stationed nearby (6th fleet in Naples), as well as airbases, and the USS Kearange and USS Ponce will pass through teh Suez canal tomorrow. the US says they're for humanitarian aid, but "aren't taking any options off the table."

UK - has airbases nearby, wants a no-fly zone in place ASAP, and Cameron is still going on about arming Libyans. A US military official said a no-fly zone is easier said than done, and would involve taking out anti-air defenses. There as talk from them that they might necessarily need a UNSC resolution to go ahead with their plans.

Russia - ruled out a no-fly zone, want to focus more on sanctions. Claims that military intervention outside the NATO responsibility zone would be considered a violation of international law, and a no-fly zone is a serious interference of another country's domestic affairs and would require a UNSC resolution. Also said US military action in Libya could "kill the shoots of democracy in the region".

France - okay with mlitary intervention, but only with a clear UN mandate. They also have a large airbase nearby.

# ¿ Mar 2, 2011 05:35

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Nonsense posted:

Just wanted to point out that Thomas Friedman is the biggest moron in the entire history of the world.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02friedman.html

At least he's not going on about caliphates.

And how the hell does someone equate giving up your freedom and getting a decent government? He's talking about China too so I don't even know what the hell led to that connection.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2011 06:35

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

In Egypt the Supreme Military court has jailed an activist after charging him with assaulting a public official on duty and breaking curfew.

quote:

Elbihiry was arrested during the early hours of Saturday morning, in front of the Council of Ministers headquarters, at a peaceful demonstration demanding the resignation of Ahmed Shafiq, the interim prime minister.

He was one of a group of protesters that took part in a peaceful sit-in, which was violently dispersed by the Egyptian armed forces, and military police. Protesters were reportedly beaten with sticks, others with electric shock batons.

[...]

Dr Laila Mustafa Soueif, a lecturer at Cairo Universitywas present at the sit-in and witnessed first hand the clashes and the initial arrest of Elbihiry.

"I was in the sit-in on Kasr el Aini street, when it was dispersed forcibly by police and military elements. As we were leaving, military elements took Amr Abdallah ElBihiry.

"They [military police] ruthlessly beat him up, my friends and I refused to leave without Amr. A high ranking officer calmed us down, and ordered a lower rank officer to release Amr, his face was severely injured. We all walked away together. But after we parted, we later found out that Amr and five others were arrested.

"Everyone was later released except Amr, he was accused of possessing a pistol. I can affirm that Amr had no weapon in his possession , otherwise military officials would not have released him in the first place," she said.

source

He's getting five years for this. Hopefully he gets released soon.

An in Libya it's been confirmed that Libyan troops have captured three Dutch soldiers who were on a secret mission to evacuate civilians last Thursday in an area near Sirte. Not sure what the fallout from this will be - they're still being held captive somewhere, so would that be grounds to mount a rescue mission? (or rather, what is the probability of the Dutch government authorizing one?)

# ¿ Mar 3, 2011 08:26

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

I fully expect this to be amazingly insulting to the people of Libya.

For him to enter in talks would mean he'd have to acknowledge what's happened so fan. Anything less would be an insult. Also the Libyan people have rejected the offer for talks since he proposed it, so Chavez's offer is kinda pointless.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2011 17:03

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Not sure how many people have seen this yet, but for anybody interested, Al Jazeera's director-general Wadah Khanfar TED talk was posted yesterday:

A historic moment in the Arab world

# ¿ Mar 3, 2011 20:18

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Few bits of news:

More protests were planned for Friday prayers, so I'm guessing they are preparing for another slaughter.

Disappointing, but not unexpected, that they'd try and execute the mercenaries. When Chulov said a "colleague" stopped them, was he referring to a reporter, or another Libyan?

# ¿ Mar 3, 2011 21:12

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Koine posted:

Sounds like another reporter, though getting involved in the news has been kind of against the Guardian's code for a long time, I think.

Yeah, that's what I thought too. I just remember journalists have always said they try to be impartial no matter how hard it is, but I guess when it's literally a matter of life and death they'd speak up.

# ¿ Mar 4, 2011 03:55

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Apology posted:

I can't get past the paywall into the New York Times, but there's an article there that paints a grim picture of the conditions in Abidjan, one of the major cities where the fighting broke out:

If you subscribe to the NY Times you can read the rest of the article here:

https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/...rssQ26emcQ3Drss

Not sure why it's working for me and not you, but here's the full article for anyone in a similar situation:

quote:

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast � At the Marcory market, iron shutters are pulled down tight over storefronts for block after block. In the Koumassi neighborhood, idle men drift up to a rare open vendor, cadging a lone cigarette. Fish and grain stalls on the road into another area, Abobo, are deserted, save the rats scurrying in a facing gutter. Lines of women, fleeing the violence in a single-file exodus, balance possessions on their heads and then scatter at the sound of nearby gunfire.

Abidjan, once West Africa�s most important city, is collapsing under the weight of Laurent Gbagbo�s armed fight to stay in power, three months after losing a presidential election.

Businesses are shutting, employees are being laid off by the dozen and families complain of going without meals. Traffic is minimal, and roadblocks operated by rock-wielding, pro-Gbagbo youth groups are everywhere. Amid the torrent of international sanctions against him, banks have closed, all A.T.M.�s have shut down and cash is rarer by the day.

But still Mr. Gbagbo refuses to yield. If anything, the world�s shift of focus to the uprisings in the Arab world appears to have emboldened him. Bloody incursions continue into neighborhoods that support the opposition. Xenophobic language airs nightly on the state television channel and from the mouths of government officials � �France, the United States and the United Nations are provoking civil war in Ivory Coast,� a Gbagbo spokesman, Alain Toussaint, said in a recent interview. And on Monday, Mr. Gbagbo�s forces fired on United Nations inspectors seeking to determine whether his government had imported attack helicopters from Belarus in violation of an arms embargo.

This week also, nine newspapers opposed to Mr. Gbagbo closed, saying they could no longer withstand police harassment and constant threats of violence against their journalists. �They�ve been summoned repeatedly by the Crime Squad� of the Gbagbo government, said a spokesman for the papers, Dembele Al Seni.

Meanwhile, the man who nations across the world say defeated Mr. Gbagbo in last year�s election, Alassane Ouattara, a former International Monetary Fund official, remains trapped in a lagoon-side hotel, protected by United Nations troops.

But increasing signs of armed assaults against Mr. Gbagbo�s forces have appeared in recent days. Some of his soldiers� estimates range from 3 to 27 � were killed in Abobo last week by a shadowy militia that fades into the neighborhood after attacking, leaving pro-Gbagbo troops, rifles bristling from the sides of trucks, cautiously patrolling Abobo�s edges. And late last week, gunmen affiliated with the armed rebellion against the government in 2002 captured several small towns in the country�s west from Mr. Gbagbo�s forces.

�It�s war in the trenches, not open warfare,� said a diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, predicting further bloodshed and no quick resolution.

He said armed �pressure� on Mr. Gbagbo had begun, aided by defections from his troops. With diminishing revenue coming into the government � European Union sanctions have blocked trade with certain entities tied to the government, including the ports � and the nation�s accounts at the regional central bank shut off by West African leaders, only about half of February�s army and civil-service salaries were paid, the diplomat said.

The new resistance has increased perils here. �The danger of reprisals on civilians is very real,� the diplomat said. �I�m afraid the price of his fall could be very heavy, like Qaddafi.�

In Abidjan, blocklong fields of uncollected garbage are not uncommon, and signs of exasperation with this stifling status quo are everywhere.

On Tuesday morning, dozens of women marched in a tight pack through the mostly pro-Ouattara Koumassi neighborhood waving leafy branches and chanting �We want peace!� � one of a number of spontaneous anti-Gbagbo demonstrations here in recent days.

Gunfire sounded the previous night in Koumassi, and there were several deaths. Mr. Gbagbo�s forces often raid in darkness, the residents explained. Then on Tuesday again, the pop-popping of semiautomatic rifles by Mr. Gbagbo�s troops could be heard after several minutes, a warning to the marchers. Yet they kept on.

�We�re marching because we are tired,� Kankou Samak� shouted above the din. �We can�t sleep. We are not able to eat. And our husbands are not working since Gbagbo demonized the whites,� she said, explaining that European-owned firms here had shut down or suspended operations.

�We are hungry. There is no work for our men,� said another marcher, Aminata Traor�.

A line of neighborhood men watched the women, approving but not joining in. �They are fed up,� said Maiga Mikailou, a hardware-stall owner, explaining that his store had been closed for a week. �Nobody is eating.�

Elsewhere in Abidjan, fear prevailed over anger.

�It�s too frightening,� said an Abobo resident, Jean Kimon, walking slowly down the road out of the neighborhood, carrying his possessions in a small plastic bag. �Everyone�s leaving.�

A thin trickle of women followed Mr. Kimon. �Too dangerous to stay,� a woman said, walking as fast as the large plastic bag on her head would allow her to. �The attackers are threatening us,� she said. �There are bodies on our street.�

Shattered storefronts lined the road, looted over the weekend by pro-Gbagbo youth in a neighborhood supporting his rival, residents said. The political violence has added to the economic misery, which has become more acute as the crisis wears on.

�Everything�s broken,� said an unemployed electrician, Kouam� Konan, looking across the road. �Where are you going to work? Nobody can pay you anyway.�

The normally bustling Sococ� shopping center in Deux Plateaux, another neighborhood, was unusually quiet Tuesday afternoon. The president of Ivory Coast�s National Union of Shopkeepers, Abdoulaye Diakit�, slowly sipped a coffee and explained: �It�s total desolation. Our members are in a panic. They don�t know what to do. They have no access to their assets. And their stores have been looted.�

As the tense political stalemate continues in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, residents fled the Abobo neighborhood, an opposition stronghold.

Residents enjoyed a lull in violence in the Abidjan suburb of Koumassi.

Women chanted �We want peace� in a spontaneous march on Tuesday in the Abidjan suburb of Koumassi.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 01:14

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

With regards to incriminating documents in Egypt, does anyone know whatever came of the "Hell Room" in the NDP headquarters? I haven't heard anything about it since it was mentioned something like two weeks ago.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 01:20

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

NPR released an article on Gaddafi's assets, and where and what they are:

Gadhafi's Frozen Assets: $32 Billion And Counting

quote:

This week tens of billions of dollars in assets belonging to Moammar Gadhafi, his family or perhaps the government of Libya were frozen. The United Nations and countries around the world, including the U.S., leveled the sanctions to punish Gadhafi for his violent crackdown on protesters.

To hear Gadhafi tell it, all this talk of his real estate holdings, investments and huge bank accounts is simply a Western conspiracy. "I have no assets and I don't take pride in keeping assets of American dollars," he told a rally of his supporters this week, according to an Al-Jazeera translation.

"If they are my personal accounts I am ready to have these accounts verified," he said. "My salary is only 465 dinars."

That's about $380, not much for the leader of an oil-rich nation.

But Adam Szubin, who's in charge of the financial sanctions office at the U.S. Treasury, has a much different assessment of Gadhafi's financial resources.

"It's obviously a pretty stunning figure," Szubin says, referring to the almost $32 billion in assets already frozen by U.S. authorities. And, he says, that number continues to grow.

"We're responding hourly to calls from institutions across the U.S. that are trying to verify or confirm whether they are holding government of Libya assets," Szubin adds.

But Szubin won't say exactly how or where the nearly $32 billion is invested. And the U.S. government won't say how much is in the Gadhafi clan's personal accounts, as opposed to Libyan government accounts.

J. Scott Carpenter, a Libya expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says it's a distinction without a difference anyway. "The notion that there is some way to separate what is the family's from what is the state's is [a] nearly impossible task," Carpenter says.

One major vehicle for those global investments is the Libya Investment Authority, the country's sovereign wealth fund. The LIA is estimated to control around $70 billion.

The Gadhafi/Libya investments in Europe are more well-known than those in the U.S. For instance, the LIA and Libya's central bank own more than 7 percent of one of Italy's largest banks, UniCredit. Another entity, the Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Co., owns 7.5 percent of a major Italian soccer club.

Among other investments: a stake in a luxury hotel project overlooking Trafalgar Square in London and a small share of Pearson PLC, which publishes the Financial Times and The Economist. Carpenter says advancing Libya's interests and burnishing its reputation probably trumped profits as investment goals.

"I don't know that the investments were seen to be necessarily making money for the Libyan economy, but that would somehow be used to advance Libya's foreign policy or political interest as a state," Carpenter says.

Gadhafi's U.S. investments are more opaque than those in Europe. Reportedly, major New York banks including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs hold some Libyan assets. Also, officials of the politically connected private equity firm The Carlyle Group have had meetings with Libyan officials, including one of Gadhafi's sons. It's not clear whether they ultimately did business.

Carlyle's managing director, David Rubenstein, said this week that Moammar Gadhafi himself was not an investor. Nevertheless, Carpenter says, Gadhafi's interest in working with The Carlyle Group, which once employed the first President Bush and former British Prime Minister John Major, is instructive.

"I'm sure if you're looking for partners and you have $30 billion to spend, you want it to benefit those who might be able to help you later on to, for instance, get off of the terrorist list, or end the sanction regimes, or protect you in moments like this when you're under pressure domestically," Carpenter says.

Given Gadhafi's bloody crackdown, it's unlikely he'll find any business partners willing to go to bat for him now.

And tangentially related, an article about Al-Jazeera finding traction in the US recently, and how US cable news is falling behind:

Clinton Media Criticism Buoys Al-Jazeera

quote:

A decade ago the U.S. government attacked Al-Jazeera as a propagator of anti-American propaganda. Now Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is citing the network for fine news coverage � and tweaking the U.S. media in the process.

The Arab broadcaster says it's ready to take advantage of what it considers a major boost in its acceptance in the United States.

Clinton, on the week many U.S. television outlets were preoccupied by the spectacle of actor Charlie Sheen, suggested during testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that American networks were falling behind in the competition for information.

Al-Jazeera has been a leader in changing people's minds and attitudes, Clinton told lawmakers Wednesday.

"Like it or hate it, it is really effective," Clinton said. "In fact, viewership of Al-Jazeera is going up in the United States because it is real news."

"You may not agree with it, but you feel like you're getting real news around the clock instead of a million commercials and, you know, arguments between talking heads and the kind of stuff that we do on our news that is not providing information to us, let alone foreigners."

In fact, Al-Jazeera's television viewership hasn't gone up much in the U.S. because it is still not widely available, seen only on scattered cable systems in Vermont, Ohio and Washington, D.C.

But online viewership of Al-Jazeera English spiked during the demonstrations in Egypt � up 2,500 percent at its peak, with nearly half of the followers from the United States, the network said.

Al-Jazeera has taken advantage of the moment, asking visitors to its website to click a tab that automatically generates a letter to the users' local cable system encouraging them to add the network. More than 40,000 e-mails have been generated, spokeswoman Molly Conroy said.

The network's leaders in the past two weeks have also visited with Time Warner, Comcast and Cablevision executives to seek space on their systems, she said.

"The events in Egypt have convinced an increasing number of Americans, the secretary of state included, that the coverage Al-Jazeera has provided for these events is something that is seen as a dramatic shift in perception of the network," said Abderrahim Foukara, Al-Jazeera's Washington bureau chief.

Fox News Channel's Michael Clemente said he was "surprised and kind of curious" by Clinton's remarks.

"We've got leadership issues there, the safety of people, the safety of our own people," said Clemente, senior vice president for news. "Some big issues. All of a sudden there are headlines about Al-Jazeera versus the news in this country? It's just surprising. Curious more than surprising."

Representatives from CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC news all declined comment Friday on what Clinton said.

But former CNN Washington bureau chief Frank Sesno agreed with her assessment.

"She's right," said Sesno, who is now director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University.

"Cable news has become cable noise. It was intended to be an opportunity to inform people, and instead it has become an opportunity to inflame people."

The cable news shift toward opinion has paid off handsomely for ratings leader Fox News Channel and, to a lesser extent, MSNBC.

CNN has resisted a partisan drift to concentrate more on news and has suffered in the ratings the past couple of years. With budget cuts, the influence of the major broadcast news divisions has been waning.

Even with the move toward opinion, the news networks often provide informative coverage when there is breaking news, such as the Egyptian revolution, Sesno said.

What's lacking is an attention span � a willingness to stick with stories and provide context. There's an addiction to "this just in," he said.

Clinton's complimentary assessment of the Arab broadcaster is an about-face from just a decade ago, when the Bush administration complained that Al-Jazeera promoted those who opposed the United States. Former Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld calling it "inexcusably biased."

That hostility played a big role in the network failing to get any traction with U.S. cable systems.

Al-Jazeera's Foukara said that with overseas audiences, particularly in the Arab world, the broadcaster finds a hunger for news.

"You can stay focused on a story for hours or days or even weeks on end," he said, "while in the U.S., the assumption is that people are not as interested in news, particularly news outside of the United States."

Sesno said the unrest in the Arab world could prove as important to Al-Jazeera as the first Gulf War was for establishing CNN in the United States.

The opinion of the former Washington bureau chief is pretty damning, as well as the part where news channels have drifted away from news to opinion.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Mar 5, 2011

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 05:33

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Jut posted:

I think a lot of the 'we beat the PG troops!' talk is overenthusiastic cock waving. Declaring victory before the war is won.

They destroyed three tanks, captured two more as well as some APCs and possibly anti-aircraft guns, and have several pro-Gaddafi soldiers who've surrendered, so it's more than just "overenthusiastic cock waving."

quote:

All we know is that PG troops shelled the crap out of Zawiya, withdrew and are now going back in.

We know significantly more than that. Also there is a significant difference between withdrawing and being forced out.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 12:42

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

AJE article on the attacks/counter-attacks:

quote:

Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, has launched a fresh military offensive to retake some of the towns he lost control over the past 18 days.

Opposition to his decades-old rule has quickly swelled into a full-blown rebellion, but Gaddafi stepped up attacks on Friday. By Saturday morning, his forces broke through opposition defences in the city of Az Zawiyah after they began renewed attacks at 6am local time, eyewitnesses told Al Jazeera.

The loyalist forces attacked residential areas in the city, firing heavy artillery from all sides, including from the sea. Tanks and armoured vehicles had broken through defences into Martyrs' Square, in the heart of the town, early in the day.

By 10am, the people of the town had retaken Martyrs' Square, after hours of intense fighting and a high number of casualties. At least 30 people were killed in fierce clashes in the town the previous day, but the death toll from the assault on Saturday morning was unclear.

But Gaddafi's forces had encircled the town and were closing in on the centre again. By midday, they had blocked off all access to the town, the Reuters news agency reported.

"Az Zawiyah is encircled by Gaddafi's forces, there are a lot of checkpoints. They are tightening their grip on the centre," a Reuters journalist said, adding government forces were manning checkpoints some 3km from the centre of town.

Dr Hamdi estimated more than 150 people had been injured on Saturday morning.

"A large number of people are gathered in the centre of the square after they pushed forces out of the city," Dr Hamdi told Al Jazeera.

Thousands of people were assembled at the square, he added, preparing to defend it from any further assaults by Gaddafi's forces.

"There is news that the [pro-]Gaddafi security forces are gathering at the outside of the city and we are bracing ourselves for another attack," Dr Hamdi said.

source

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 12:50

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Sirte
Seems the fighting in Sirte may be infighting between the local population, not the rebel forces reaching there

This sounds like bad news for Gaddafi, if he can't count on the Sirte populace to be 100% loyal then the Gaddafi forces are going to have to deal with that and the rebel attack.

For anyone who didn't know, Sirte's his hometown, so this is actually pretty big. It was one of the few cities that were that are/were supposed to be loyal to him.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 12:59

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

AJE article on the second attack on Zawiya:

quote:

Anti-government fighters in the western Libyan town of Az Zawiyah have repelled repeated attacks by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan president.

Gaddafi's forces encircled Az Zawiyah on Saturday, manning checkpoints about 3km from the centre after fighters pushed them back in fierce fighting earlier in the day.

Troops later mounted a second attack on the town, which lies just 50km west of the capital Tripoli, but were again pushed back.

More than 30 people were killed and as many as 200 people were said to have been wounded in the fighting that drove government forces out of the town.

Youssef Shagan, a spokesman for the fighters in the town, said that Gaddafi's forces had entered Az Zawiyah at 6am (04:00 GMT) with hundreds of soldier, along with tanks and armoured vehicles.

Gaddafi's forces had broken through defences into Martyrs' Square, in the heart of the town, but hours later were pushed back.

"Our people fought back ... We have won for now and civilians are gathering in the square," Shagan said.

National council

Elsewhere, anti-government forces were in control of Ras Lanuf, which houses a major refinery and petrochemical complex, and the nearby town of Bin Jawad.

The area is significant because it takes the fighters closer to Sirte, a Gaddafi stronghold.

Hoda Abdel-Hamid, Al Jazeera's correspondent, who had visited the area, said: "I have to say on the road all I've seen was convoy after convoy - a mixture of volunteers, fighters and regular soldiers making their way to Ras Lanuf and past Ras Lanuf.

"They are regrouping there. They are very proud of all the gains they've made - they say they are going straight to Sirte, and after Sirte to Tripoli."

A report from the Reuters news agency said that one of its correspondents was shown the wreckage of a warplane in the area of Ras Lanuf that fighters said they had shot down.

In Benghazi, Libya's second city which is in the hands of anti-government forces, the self-declared opposition national council, held their first meeting on Saturday.

The 30-member body is headed by Mustafa Abdel Jalil, a former justice minister who defected from Gaddafi's camp after protests against the Libyan leader's rule erupted two weeks ago. The meeting was held in secret.

The group later announced it had set up a crisis committee, to be headed by Mahmoud Jebril, one of a group of intellectuals who had called for a democratic state.

Omar Hariri, one of the officers who took part in Gaddafi's 1969 coup but was later jailed, was appointed head of military affairs and Ali Essawi, a former ambassador to India who quit last month, was put in charge of foreign affairs.

'Call to arms'

Tony Birtley, Al Jazeera's correspondent reporting from Benghazi, said that resistance to Gadaffi's rule was strengthening.

"I think they're coming to the realisation that the outcome is in their own hands. They did think that Gaddafi would leave peacefully, they then thought that the international community would take steps and force him out," he said.

"I think the pendulum has swung now and they believe it is in their own hands.

"They are answering the call to arms, they are coming from all over eastern Libya, bringing their weapons, getting whatever training they can and moving on."

Two blasts at an arms dump on the outskirts of Benghazi left more than 30 people dead, according to medical sources in the city.

The reasons for the blast, which occurred on Friday, were not immediately known.

Gaddafi has had little success in taking back rebel-held territory - which includes the entire eastern half of the country and some cities near the capital - but a number of cities, including Tripoli, remain firmly under his control.

On Friday, pro-Gaddafi forces fired tear gas to disperse at least 1,000 people in the capital's Tajoura district who were holding a protest against the Libyan leader.

On Saturday, there were reports that a group of foreign journalists had been detained on their way to Az Zawiyah.

BBC's live updates reports a slightly different on Zawiya story however:

quote:

2050: Residents of the rebel-held city of Zawiya have told the BBC that government tanks, which had been shelling buildings in the centre of the city, withdrew suddenly for reasons that are unclear. At least 30 people are reported to have been killed in Saturday's fighting in the city, during which many buildings were damaged or set on fire. Control of Zawiya is seen as crucial to Colonel Gaddafi's efforts to defend his stronghold in nearby Tripoli

So whether they were pushed out or withdrew on their on is somewhat debatable apparently.

This was posted a few hours ago, shows how far along the rebels have gotten (doesn't show the western half of Libya unfortunately):

Click here for the full 1440x871 image.

Still, it seems like now that they've made headway, they're going to push forward to Sirte.

e: found a higher-resolution map

e2: posted yesterday's by accident

Narmi fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Mar 5, 2011

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 22:23

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Scratch that part about not showing the western half, the guy who made the first map also made this one showing who's in control & troop locations:

Click here for the full 1440x871 image.

Click here for the full 1440x871 image.

(Already posted the second one, but I should probably keep them on the same page.)

The guys who made these maps is Iyad El-Baghdadi, and made a few in the past as well, which can be viewed here. His Twitter account has updates on Libya as well.

e: he's gone to bed, but his last tweet is pretty interesting:

quote:

Also, before I go to sleep, I should tell you I expect tomorrow to be decisive on the Sirt/Sidra front too.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Mar 5, 2011

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 22:37

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

The map of the east is a bit out of date I think, Bin Jawad was reported as being in the hands of the rebels earlier today, and Ras Lanuf was in the hands of the rebels since yesterday night.

You're right, I posted yesterday's by accident. Fixed now - thanks!

# ¿ Mar 5, 2011 23:15

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Ham posted:

Just as I posted, Amr Moussa was gonna be part of it. In fact after Mubarak's second speech he went down to Tahrir Square to tell protesters "It's over he'll do it, go home" which was apparently the part of the government's plan.

So was he on the government's side all along, or was he just predictable enough that they used/tricked him?

# ¿ Mar 6, 2011 02:26

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Not sure how legit it is, but the Libyan Interim Transitional National Council has set up a twitter account at LibyanTNC.

Their first tweet, four hours ago:

quote:

By the name of God we start #libya #17feb

And in Tunisia, there's worry that their revolution is going to be exploited as they call for more military intervention to stabilize the country.

quote:

There have been calls for a greater military role to help stabilise post-revolutionary Tunisia, but North Africa analyst Francis Ghiles warns that a military coup would only damage Tunisia's long-term interests.

The poorer classes of Tunisia paid a heavy price in blood to overthrow the out of touch Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his greedy family, but building a working democratic system is proving to be difficult.

The interim Tunisian Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi resigned last Sunday, saying that he "did not want to be the prime minister of repression".

Bloody clashes between tens of thousands of young demonstrators, who were demanding the departure of a man who had held the job for 11 years, left dozens wounded and five dead in the heart of Tunis.

Mr Ghannouchi was replaced by Beji Caid Sebsi, an 84-year-old lawyer who served as a former foreign minister under Habib Bourguiba - the founder of modern Tunisia - and a man who retired from active political life in 1994.

However honourable and well intentioned, appointing a man born in 1926 to run the country is seen by many young Tunisians as adding insult to injury. It suggests that the Tunisian elites are unwilling to usher in the radical changes so many of their countrymen hope for.

There is now increasing talk of the army taking over, rumours which are encouraged by the dire situation on Tunisia's southern border with Libya from which 75,000 refugees have arrived in recent days.
Ben Ali 'lite'

Fear of disorder is growing as many workers are on strike and former managers, deeply compromised by their links to the former president, are being forced to resign their jobs, notably in state companies.

A number of ordinary Tunisians have been beaten up in recent days by plain clothes policemen and members of the hated militia of the fallen dictator - Brigades de l'Ordre Public ("les Bop").

The economic challenge is also a tall one. The political turmoil, combined with sluggish growth in Europe, is expected to lead to a contraction of 1.5% in real Gross Domestic Product in 2011. This compares with an estimated growth of 3.4% last year.

The cost of the current upheaval was estimated at $5bn (�3.1bn), equivalent to 11% of GDP, a figure which is likely to rise if a functioning government cannot get the country back to work soon.

Two major sources of foreign currency have, for the moment, dried up - tourism and receipts from Tunisian workers in Libya. Tunisia does, however, have a manageable foreign debt which is mostly on concessional terms.

A conference of the country's major economic partners due shortly will no doubt offer some breathing space.

Entrenched interests

Despite the difficulties Tunisia currently faces, it would be a huge mistake for the army, many of whom are conscripts, and its highly respected army chief of staff, Gen Rachid Ammar, who refused the former dictator's orders to shoot on unarmed crowds of protesters, to seize power.

The temptation may come from pressure in the ruling elite, fearful of seeing its wealth and privileges eroded by the emergence of genuine democratic forces; and from "friends" of Tunisia in Washington, European or Arab capitals who would be content to see a Ben Ali "lite" regime, rather than a genuine democracy emerge from the current confusion.

Finally the Tunisian army is small and under equipped: it might be tempting for its senior officers to claim a stake of the pie.

Gen Ammar might, however, take a different stand, modelled on the situation in Turkey - to act as the guarantor of his country's external security and guarantee that free and fair elections will take place.

If he chooses to act constitutionally, he might well remember the example of his predecessor, Gen Kheireddine Pasha. He was principal minister of Mohamed al-Sadok Bey, the Tunisian ruler who issued the first modern constitution in the Arab world in 1861, 20 years before France colonised Tunisia.
Establishment figure

Throughout barely six weeks as interim prime minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi was very much in the hands of former acolytes of Mr Ben Ali.

This is hardly surprising for this former civil servant and minister who, though a man of personal integrity, had failed over the years to confront a rapacious and mafiosi first family.

Some of his closest advisers were linked to Mr Ben Ali, either by marrying into the family or through their professional services to the presidential office.

One adviser - a speech writer for the former French prime minister Jean Pierre Raffarin - had even helped to craft the former head of state's last two televised speeches before he fled the country on 14 January.

Their presence suggests that entrenched interests remain powerful in the economy and the security forces, and will not cede power easily to a younger generation, even if they were willing to sacrifice Ben Ali.

The temptation to use young thugs who belonged to the Ben Ali militias must be strong and their presence and brutish behaviour were there for all to see during last weekend's disturbances in Tunis.

source

Turkey's again mentioned as a possible (as well as the best) route they could take, but the country's still in turmoil and trying to sort itself out, so who knows what'll emerge at the end.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Mar 6, 2011

# ¿ Mar 6, 2011 18:12

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

So France has welcomed the TNC and supports its goals. I guess this is the first step towards it becomning the official/acknowledged government of Libya?

Also, not sure if it's true , but this

quote:

21:36 In a live call on Al Jazeera, someone who returned from the battle at Ras Lanuf says that troops made up of mercenaries also included women holding children so revolutionaries could not shoot. (Via @ShababLibya)

is despicable.

e: Slight derail; I keep on forgetting, but congrats on becoming a mod Xandu. It happened recently, I think a few days ago, right?

Narmi fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Mar 7, 2011

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 00:52

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

The Guadian's posted an article on the SAS mission to Libya. The whole thing's pretty long, so I'm only quoting part of it, but you can read the full thing here.

quote:

A British diplomatic effort to reach out to Libyan rebels has ended in humiliation as a team of British special forces and intelligence agents left Benghazi after being briefly detained.

The six SAS troops and two MI6 officers were seized by Libyan rebels in the eastern part of the country after arriving by helicopter four days ago. They left on HMS Cumberland, the frigate that had docked in Benghazi to evacuate British and other EU nationals as Libya lurched deeper into conflict. The diplomatic team's departure marked a perfunctory end to a bizarre and botched venture.

[...]

Northern suggested in the call that the SAS team had been detained due to a misunderstanding.

The rebel leader responded: "They made a big mistake, coming with a helicopter in an open area."

Northern said: "I didn't know how they were coming."

Despite the failure of the mission, Hague indicated that Britain would continue to try to make contact with the opposition.

"We intend, in consultation with the opposition, to send a further team to strengthen our dialogue in due course," he said. "This diplomatic effort is part of the UK's wider work on Libya, including our ongoing humanitarian support. We continue to press for Gaddafi to step down and we will work with the international community to support the legitimate ambitions of the Libyan people."

According to Guardian sources, the British intelligence and special forces unit were caught near the al-Khadra Farm Company, 18 miles (30km) south-west of Benghazi. A senior member of Benghazi's revolutionary council said: "They were carrying espionage equipment, reconnaissance equipment, multiple passports and weapons. This is no way to conduct yourself during an uprising.

"Gaddafi is bringing in thousands of mercenaries to kill us, most are using foreign passports and how do we know who these people are?

"They say they're British nationals and some of the passports they have are British. But the Israelis used British passports to kill that man in Dubai last year."

Rebel leaders said claimed the captives had been treated well and would be released as soon as the British government vouched for their identity with the rebel command.

The news follows Sunday Times claims that an SAS unit was being held by rebel forces it had approached in an attempt to open up diplomatic channels to opponents of Muammar Gaddafi.

Whitehall sources said on Friday it needed to learn more about the leadership of the anti-Gaddafi forces and find out what logistical support they needed, but would not give arms to the rebels, as an international arms embargo was in place.

[...]

The Sunday Times reported Libyan and British sources confirming the SAS unit had been detained by rebel forces it had approached to secure a meeting with a junior diplomat to offer help in their fight against Gaddafi. The mission backfired when rebel leaders in Benghazi objected to foreign interference from governments which had not yet formally recognised them as Libya's legitimate rulers, it said.

The last part seems like a pretty odd thing to do, since they must be hurting for help. They've been requesting help for several days now since the fighting turned bloody, and aren't in a position to decline foreign aid, but won't accept it unless they're formally recognized. Britain's been calling on Gaddafi to step down for awhile now too, and has frozen his assets, so I don't know why they wouldn't accept their help.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 01:45

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Oh, I get that the Brits mishandled making contact with the Libyans, I just think it was a bad move to not try and work something out, especially something that would've ended with them being officially recognized. Instead they sent them away and told them to try again later. Granted, being officially recognized is a huge step towards their legitimacy, but they have a whole bunch of more urgent matters to address.

Anyways, something less serious from Britain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySvcdXZH6KQ

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 02:40

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

BBC and Reuters have confirmed that Bin Jawad's fallen to pro-Gaddafi forces, who are moving towards Ras Lanuf.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 12:01

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Ras Lanuf plays a major role in fuel production, so the rebels should do everything they can to fortify the city before moving onto Sirte. Sirte is going to be a major battle, so they need to make sure that they have strong and secure supply lines. This big push they made seemed to have been mostly led by enthusiasitic rebels, rather than the former military who joined them. They need to make sure they can hold onto Ras Lanuf, and then slowly secure the road toward Sirte.

I have to wonder how hard it'll be to defend Ras Lanuf though. The whole place is tiny - mostly just the oil terminal, port and airstrip. And it seems that Gaddafi's forces deliberately drew them out so they could counter-attack more easily. So far it seems to still be in the rebel's hands, and hopefully stays that way.

Bit more info on Bin Jawad and Ras Lanuf from Iyad El-Baghdadi, as well as some disturbing news regarding Al-Jazeera:

quote:

@Derekuhb @ROKCalifornia1 Bin Jawad isn't a "key town" at all. Ras Lanuf and Wadi-al-Ahmar are.

About the Sirt area, please don't be bummed by news about Bin Jawad "falling" to Gaddafi. I think it's a mis-characterization. #Libya

Bin Jawad isn't (and never was) a strategic town. The revolutionaries pulled out of it to consolidate at Ras Lanuf. #Libya

Bin Jawad is more a way point than a strategic point. When revolutionaries pulled back some of them had even reached Sirt outskirts. #Libya

The truly strategic point is Wadi-al-Hamra, that's a pinch point, and that's the true place to look for. #Libya

The revolutionaries said: "Our target was always Wadi-al-Hamra. If we're past that, we're in Sirt." Bin Jawad is just a waypoint. #Libya

In fact some of the revolutionary fighters said that they don't even need to enter Bin Jawad; but cannot circumvent Wadi-al-Hamra.

Wadi-al-Ahmar or Wadi-al-Hamra literally means "the red valley", it's a little over 100 kms from Sirt (to the east of course). #Libya

Aljazeera live from Ras Lanuf: City is under attack by Grad missiles #Libya

Aljazeera's reporter in Benghazi says he fears there may be attempts on Aljazeera's crew in #Libya by #Gaddafi agents.

I expect Gaddafi to go after Ras Lanuf like a freight train, he's gonna hit it like a ton of bricks... hope they hold their ground. #Libya

Aljazeera reports air strikes on Ras Lanuf now. #Libya

Aljazeera's reporter in Benghazi says there's an "continuous stream of convoys" of volunteers heading to the front. #Libya

Gonna be away for a few hours. Expect big things today and tomorrow around the Sirt-Ras Lanuf-Ajdabia area.

Before I go let me say this: Expect Gaddafi to play his "illegal immigration card" in new & creatively cruel ways. #Libya

He also said that the gunfire heard in Tripoli might have been due to an attempt on Gaddafi's life - might just be a rumor, but if it's true shows just how secure he is in his "stronghold."

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 13:05

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Ham posted:

So Mohamed El Baradei just announced he intends to run for president in Egypt. Right now it looks like the elections will be a battle between him and Amr Moussa who's already announced he also intends to run. I support Baradei but right now I'd say Moussa would win 70-30, but Baradei's getting more popular with the people every day and they're starting some campaigns so we'll see in the coming months.

There are others who have announced their intent to run including party leaders: Hamdein Sabahy from "Hizb Al Karamah" and Ayman Nour from "Hizb al Ghad" although there's rumors Ayman Nour won't run and is supporting El Baradei.

Thanks for the update Ham. Glad to see different parties are starting to form in Egypt.

Also, I asked this before, but I guess it got buried a few pages back, but there's something that's been bugging me for awhile - if you can clear it up for me it'd be much appreciated. I was wondering whatever happened to that "Hell Room" that was said to be in the NDP headquarters. I haven't heard anything about it since it was first mentioned awhile ago. Was it just a rumour, or was the whole place to badly burnt to find anything or what?

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 18:19

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

In Tunisia, progress seems to be sliding backwards. There's been warnings of people from the old regime waiting in the wings, ready to take advatages of the people's frustration when the time is right, and it seems they're starting to play their hand. AJE has posted an article on what's going on - it's long, but worth the read.

quote:

Tunisia vibrated with palpable euphoria in the days after mass protests forced Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to decamp to Saudia Arabia.

A few short weeks on, utopic expectations of a sweeping break with the old regime are colliding with concerns that the country is edging towards political and economic crisis.

"There's a big discussion underway between those that are concerned that genuine revolution be realised, and those that are really concerned that the power vacuum will lead to chaos," says Michael Willis, a lecturer at Oxford University's School of Oriental Studies.

Tunisians are split into two general camps: what might be called the 'idealists,' who refuse to rest until every last relic of the old regime has been stripped away, and the 'realists'' who fear that, however imperfect and in need of reform the existing institutions may be, instability and lack of governance could open the way for either the military or the barely-ousted regime to take power.

The idealist group includes a tactical alliance of Islamists, trade unionist and far-left groups, while the reformers include centre-left opposition parties, conservatives, former allies of Ben Ali and independents who have stepped into the political sphere for the first time.

Until the deadlock between the two sides is bridged, the country is floating in a state of limbo.

Lurking in the shadows, both groups are quick to say, are Ben Ali loyalists poised to profit from any ambiguity to re-establish their political might. Each side accuses the other of being infiltrated by former members of the recently disbanded RCD (Constitutional Democratic Rally) party.

While there are clearly manipulations going on, Willis says, both sides have legitimate concerns.

"Every time any structure is put in place, there are calls for it to be removed and overthrown. Yet there are concerns that rolling chaos and rolling demands will just gut the system," he says.

Mohamed Ghannouchi stood down from his role as interim prime minister last Sunday, after protests in the capital calling for his resignation turned violent and five people were killed. Ghannouchi had been prime minister under Ben Ali since 1999.

Particularly foreboding for the prospects of Tunisia�s democratic transition was the resignation of two leading representatives of Tunisia�s centre-left opposition; Najib Chebbi, the founder of the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), and Ahmed Ibrahim, the head of the Ettajdid Movement.

Both politicians had been prominent critics of Ben Ali and were untainted by links to the former regime.

Ahmed Bouazzi, a member of the executive committee of the PDP, tells Al Jazeera that Chebbi had resigned because he was concerned about political uncertainty and the government's ceding of power to a "strange alliance" of union activists, Islamist parties, including Rachid Ghannouchi's pro-democracy al-Nahda movement and the smaller, more conservative Tahir party, and a range of Marxist and Leftist groups.

"Since the government is too weak, they give the opposition, especially the trade union, everything that they demand," Bouazzi says.

He adds that this was especially ironic given that the national union (UGTT) leadership had worked closely with Ben Ali - including Abdessalem Jrad, the UGTT's secretary-general - and only became involved in the protest movement on the eve of his fall from power.

Many things may have changed in the new era, but there are reminders of the past. People who tried to attend a protest calling for Jrad's resignation were intimidated by supporters of the union on Saturday.

"In the post-Ben Ali Tunisia, repression continues," writes Selim Slimi, a journalist who was severely beaten outside the union headquarters by its members as he tried to report on the protest.

The country�s centre-left parties fear that the combination of uncertainty over the upcoming elections and the insecurity caused by the ongoing protests is going to lead to a scenario where the military could take power.

"Since these people are using violence in the street, maybe this will pave the way for the army," Bouazzi says.

Beji Caid Essebsi, who came out of retirement to take the role of interim prime minister after Ghannouchi's resignation, has the advantage of having no direct links to the Ben Ali regime.

While the 87-year-old who served as a minister in President Habib Bourguiba's government may not be fresh blood, Essebsi is viewed as a more palatable figure to oversee the country's democratic transition, and promised to form a new interim government within days. The government was due to be announced on Monday.

A town pillaged

The malaise reaches far beyond the capital, penetrating into the impoverished centre-west of the country where the protest movement began.

In Kasserine, the town that sacrificed the most lives during the uprising, a sudden eruption of violence has dealt a severe blow to expectations that the new political dawn would rapidly bring postive changes to the region.

Hopes that thirst for jobs, decent employment conditions, government investment and freedom would finally be quenched have been overtaken by a state of fear, after the town was engulfed by three days of burning and looting by gangs of youths.

Mohamed-Salah Omri, a lecturer at Oxford�s Faculty of Oriental Studies who is originally from Kasserine, says that no more than a couple of hundred people had participated in the violence over the weekend and that the vast majority of the town strongly opposed it.

The rampage caught the town just when morale had been high, he says. "There was a certain consensus that the town was looking up," he explains. "The security situation was good and people dropped their guard."

The rioters hit the central police station and the national guard first, and moved on to the government finance office, the regional customs office and the council for central and western development. Schools, banks and small businesses were looted.

"They threw stones and used knives to terrorise the people of Kasserine," says Basma Askri, a local lawyer, adding that the recent wave of destruction was far worse than anything that happened during the uprising.

Most of the town's public buildings, many commercial properties and some homes were destroyed, although no lives were lost. More than a week later, many of the shops are still closed.

A 'deliberate strategy'

Sources in the town say the unrest was sparked by false rumours that a project to construct a research hospital in Kasserine was being moved to Gafsa and that the wealthy seaside town of Monastir would be receiving sizable government investments. In a town long starved of government attention this roused resentment.

Several people who attended a sermon in a poor neighbourhood of Ezzouhour, where protesters had been killed by snipers in mid-January, say an imam there had helped spread the rumour. "He said that to make people angry. It's not his role to talk politics; he said some very disturbing things," a local business owner, speaking anonymously for his own protection, says.

"These people [spreading the rumours] want to create regional rivalries. They don't want Tunisia to be free and democratic."

With so much social and political uncertainty, in addition to the endemic unemployment that was one of the issues behind the December uprising, another young man explained that it is easy to incite the town's restless youth.

"A few rumours are enough to start a protest right now," he says, adding that "it was well-organised."

The interior ministry also says that the protest was provoked by deliberate misinformation and urged Tunisians "not to fall for such warped rumours, which aim at destabilising the country and fermenting trouble and disorder," in a statement.

Witnesses from Kasserine say that records in the public buildings were completely destroyed in acts, unlike the wider looting, that seemed planned and calculated.

"These people went straight to the public buildings, where there were very important papers which could have been used as proof against them," the business owner says.

Anger at the army

One indication of how much the people of Kasserine have been shaken by the latest unrest is the effect it has had on their relationship with the army. Hugely popular since its commander-in-chief, Rachid Ammar, reportedly refused Ben Ali's demand to fire on protesters during the unrest, the army had won the respect of the town where the worst massacres occured.

But several people in Kasserine say the events of last week happened under the watch of the military and that soldiers stood passively as buildings were burned and robbed.

"The crowd headed straight for the police station and the army didn�t stop them," one man says. "There are still limits on their intervention."

Because of their perceived failure to protect the town, angry locals asked the military to leave for the first time last Saturday, sources say.

A video sent to Al Jazeera shows locals confronting soldiers:

"Yesterday they burgled the bank and where were you?

"When they stole the weapons [from the police station], where were you?

"Coward, collaborator, Trabelsi [reference to Leila Ben Ali's family]."

Neither has the incident improved the locals' low opinion of the police.

Neji Zairi, a spokesperson for the interior ministry, says that the police had done their best in difficult circumstances and had little choice but to flee as the protesters approached. "What can they do? There were thousands of people who were trying to invade the police building. You can't always resort immediately to bullets and risk killing people," he says.

Omri says that while the people of Kasserine do not generally suspect the army of being complicit in the unrest, the problem lies in the lack of clarification over the army's role in domestic affairs. Police have lost some of their authority to the army, he notes, and may have expected the soldiers to take over in dealing with the youths. "I don't think people know what the army's rules of engagement are," he says.

The spokesperson for the defence ministry was unavailable to discuss the matter when contacted by Al Jazeera. But the ministry did issue a statement on Tuesday which, though it did not refer directly to Kasserine, appeared to be a response to criticisms, denouncing what it termed a campaign to discredit the army, "which has valiantly resisted to protect the revolution since its beginning, to defend the state institutions, protect individuals, preserve public and private property against acts of vandalism and looting and to safeguard the republican regime".

Reaching out

The army quickly sent heavy reinforcements to the town, and worked with police to arrest people suspected to have instigated or carried out the rioting. Helicpoters surveyed the streets from above, while patrols of soldiers and tanks monitored things on the ground, with the assistance of a small number of police.

"There's been a complete turnaround in the attitude of the soldiers," one man says.

The interior ministry confirm several local businessmen, a lawyer, a school principal and former members of the local government were sent to Tunis for questioning. The imam is at large but is wanted for questioning.

Soldiers arrest man in cash-filled Mercedes in Kasserine on Saturday

"These are important people, all have links to the RCD," Omri says.

A car filled with thousands of dinar in cash fuelled suspicions that youths were to be paid for having participated in the looting.

"Police agents have arrested the people who were paying the individuals who committed the violence and criminal acts," Neji Zairi says.

In an attempt to rebuild the trust that had been lost during the rampage, a military commander held an exceptional meeting with locals on Monday to better explain the army's mandate, Al Jazeera learned.

The commander called on Kasserine's civil society to help calm the tensions, and said the military had prevented a group from breaking into the local prison on Sunday, as well as the attempted sabotage of a nearby factory.

Implications

The campaign of destruction in Kasserine is one of many suspicious cases that are contributing to wider fears that former regime heavyweights still have the capacity to wreak havoc, especially since local and national authorities are weakened by the battle for legitimacy.

The month of February was marked by a series of strange incidents that served to remind Tunisians that that the fruits of their uprising are far from ripe. The interior ministry is investigating alleged cases of instigating violence in the capital, Sidi Bouzid and El Kef, as well as last week's incident in Kasserine.

In his resignation speech, Ghannouchi warned Tunisia's "silent majority" that they must remain vigilant against the attempts to undermine their �revolution�.

"A plot is being instigated against the Tunisian peoples' revolution," Ghannouchi cautioned, on his final night as prime minister. "There is a minority who want to make the revolution fail and a majority who are apathetic."

For Omri, what happened in Kasserine was part of a pattern that has emerged in post-uprising Tunisia of mob psychology being manipulated to achieve political ends. He says the trend is unlikely to be the work of a single group, but rather individuals operating at the local level.

"For some it's just an opportunity to loot and break, for others it's a cover for something else. And that's been happening across Tunisia," he says.

source

It's surprising that two opposition leaders who were vocal in their critiscism of Ben Ali would choose to resign, though their reasons seem to be legitimate, and underscore the uncertainty/problems that the new government is facing. Also that part with the Imam who incited people then disappeared, the car full of dinars and the targetting of specific buildings masked by the looting seems almost from a conspiracy blog or something.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2011 18:53

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 20:38

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

So more and more countries are talking about implementing a no-fly zone. The Gulf states have demanded the UN implement one, the UK and France seems on board and are drafting a UN council resolution, the US is a bit iffy on the subject, but says military options are still being considered. Only China and Russia are holding out, and while Russia seems to be against it at this point, they haven't ruled it out. There's hope that both will either support it or simply abstain instead of using their veto powers.

A NFZ seems like it would be a huge boost to the anti-Gaddafi side; while the airstrikes so far seem to miss their targets most of the time or do very little damage, they probably undermine morale considerably. Especially after losing Bin Jawad, where a lot of the men went home, this could be the boost they need to push forward.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2011 00:16

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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