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Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
ewww that's disgusting, I need a shower after reading that slimy filth

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Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
mm I don't know. PMU didn't actually do most of the heavy lifting there. The reason the PMU has mobility like this is because they push push and leave behind vulnerabilities in their defence that are exploited and innocents die, or the ISF fill. Also, the PMU headed to Tel Afar were Quds forces who were loving up civilians real bad. There was a huge gap also in time between Mosul being taken and the PMU pushing forward past hamam al alil. that left flank didn't go north, it surrounded hamam al alil and was a part of retaking it which was a huge mission. Most of all this retaken area was just open desert with a freeway that isis didn't destroy. What a weird way to promote the PMU through a bullshit map and timeline. basically i'm saying you're wrong.. the PMU actually really suck and are not effective. the ISF and CTS on the otherhand has done all the hard work. Shia militias would get obliterated in a real war. they're mostly just kids and some humvees.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
It's what they've been doing in Iraq too. They leave bombs and traps and some confusion tactics in the villages but retreat fast to do their last fight inside the main town. They know they've lost and will be surrounded but they try to make the last patch a hard fight. The difference here is that I doubt the SAA care about IHL or demolishing the city, so they'll take the city fast I think, like how the Hashed al Shabi took Tal Afar quite quickly for the same reason.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
It says "get your free green handbands here!"

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
Well they won't just declare independence, it's complicated. There is no accepted constitutional method of independence according to baghdad, so no mater what the outcome is it will be denied unanimously by iraq and every other country, for now. Things are tense in Kurdistan, and no one is sure what will happen. These are my predicted options:
1) hashed al shabi and peshmerga have skirmishes in kirkuk, khanaqin, etc. with losses
2) internally in kurdistan there are some killings/attacks
3) there are some cross border attacks from turkey

I think the referendum will be a yes vote, despite most kurds hating the current barzani dictatorship. Then when it's a yes, and any conflict dies down (if it doesn't escalate) it will become a legal/political dispute for months or years to come.

The key is really IF PDK activates the parliament and gets PUK and Goran support. If that happens, I think UN and western powers will eventually support it over time with some type of independence 'plan'.

And then in time Kurdistan will become it's own country. If Barzani and PDK go full dictatorship it will just become a pariah.

The main issues are the disputed areas which are full of oil and kurdistan controls them all, plus all the areas they took defeating ISIS.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
It's a bit more complicated than that. Basically Kurds were Arabized during Sadam period (Sadam would bus in arab families and kick out kurdish so that he was slowly cleansing iraq of kurds and taking oil regions). And then ISIS took the Arab areas and towns, then when Kurds took them back and got rid of ISIS they would either purposefully destroy buildings, or it happened through the conflict so the Arabs couldn't return. Or they would restrict people from returning due to being ISIS supporters (which is some cases is true, some not.) The thing is.. the shia Militias (official government forces) are doing the same kind of things to Sunni's in iraq too.. so it's a pretty weak argument.

Also I don't really get the travel ban.. you can still fly to baghdad and then to erbil. or erbil to baghdad and then international. Just adding some extra $ and time to the flights..

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
You're broken!

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Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo
Hawija is over, and now it's a chance (small?) that Iraq will become a "civil" war. What will happen now in Kirkuk is important, and how regional players react to Kurdistan. I wish this poo poo would go away, so bored of war.

edit; holy poo poo just realised this thread is 6 years old. I don't think I predicted this world..

Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Oct 10, 2017

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