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KurdtLives posted:I wonder if all of the unease of Libyan reaction to civilian casualties from a NFZ are somewhat overblown. They are going to see the results of CQ's human shield bullshit up close after all, and will possibly inflict far more accidental civilian casualties themselves, especially if the fight drags on to urban areas. Reminds me of the first friendly fire incident incident in Afghanistan: A US airstrike was timed wrong and I forget the number but I think a dozen or so Northern Alliance troops were killed. The Special Forces officer who had to tell their commander was afraid of what the reaction would be, but the Alliance leader basically shrugged and said "These things happen." I think the super angry reactions we think of are more from stuff like that Apache gunship video with killing of random dudes trying to rescue the other random dudes the chopper shot up. On the other hand.. what the hell are you talking about? The only thing stopping a NFZ is the joke of a UN that has Russia and China, authoritarian states - the complete mirror of what the Libyan government stands for, with veto power over the decision.
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Mar 11, 2011 13:50
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I think what has happened is the army defectors have regrouped over time and organized themselves and their strategy to incorporate the rebels. So now we're seeing organized military resistance with the help, assistance and guerilla abilities of the civilian rebels as support. It seems to support the news and tweets coming out of Libya anyway. They know they can't take the pro-gadaf forces on head-on so they're using hit-and-run strats, phoney retreats and I also think they are trying to buy time for intervention or so more pro-gadaf forces bulk or join them, among other things. No matter how confident Gadaffi looks or appears, the horror stories coming out from Libya regarding his use of terror and violence just reek of desperation and will only reinforce the rebels position within the country and internationally. I'd put my bets on the rebels right now. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 00:41 on Mar 14, 2011 |
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Mar 14, 2011 00:36
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The Arab League supports a NFZ in Libya, but the GCC is sending military to help Bahrain. What? That's almost as bad as Iran supporting the revolution in Egypt but brutally condemning protests in their own country.
Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Mar 14, 2011 |
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Mar 14, 2011 07:22
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I think that this is still up in the air and could go either way depending on the international response, and the move the rebels make to counter Gad's strategy.
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Mar 15, 2011 04:40
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Narmi posted:Hasn't just the threat of a UN resolution already caused people high up in the chain of command to start fleeing? They've already been under pressure since they face the ICC for war crimes/crimcs against humanity if they lose, so I can't imagine they'd want to stick around if they thought they were going to lose and be apprehended. Allegedly. A lot of the news in here are twitter posts. So we won't know until after or maybe never.
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Mar 17, 2011 23:08
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Revolution: Back on.
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Mar 17, 2011 23:35
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I wouldn't be surprised if the UN/NATO has a complete air-strike plan already under-way to hit key military installations and install a protective air-barrier around Benghazi within hours. It's basically sanctioned destruction of any military vehicles/installations they can find or have pre-determined.
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Mar 17, 2011 23:48
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dpbjinc posted:Nothing at all, apparently. Go USA! This is a good thing. The US should stand back and let other nations take the lead on this. A lot of the success will wind up in PR and propagranda, and the US meddling in middle-east affairs doesn't have positive conotations. Italy and France should take the lead. edit: and ME countries from the Arab League (but not the GCC) vvvvvvvvv "Americans have given the green light to the Egyptians to help. The Americans don't want to be involved in a direct level, but the Egyptians wouldn't do it if they didn't get the green light." Exactly. Obama is smart. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Mar 17, 2011 |
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Mar 17, 2011 23:54
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redscare posted:Berlusconi is Gaddafi's butt-body, Italy won't be doing much of anything. This will primarily be done by the UK and France with help from a few others. The US will park a carrier in the area just to keep an eye on things and probably support the effort with Hawkeyes and whatnot. Berlusconi did a complete 180 and was early to condemn Libya as unexpected as that was. It would send a good message if a former buddy led the attacks, and a country without much meddling in ME affairs.
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Mar 17, 2011 23:59
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Can a mod change the title to something Libyan or UN relevant? Middle-East in Revolt: The UNdies in your home.. blah I don't know. Brown Moses posted:New thread titles? Middle-East in Revlot : Gaddafi Gets Got Stop thinking like my brain thinks.
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Mar 18, 2011 00:17
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I hope the UN takes out any military they can find regardless of what that piece of poo poo says or how he tries to stall.
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Mar 18, 2011 00:54
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ChaosSamusX posted:So, when does poo poo start going down? Apparently some of the assets started moving out over an hour ago. Well I assume as soon as the jets get there. The question is: what are they going to target? Do they attack deployed forces they are tracking in the east, or do they wipe out as many known military installations and assets in the west/tripoli as soon as possible? Will they even target buildings and military sites? I bet their first target is all the airborne Gad jets and then all the Gad held airfields.
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Mar 18, 2011 01:15
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Spiky Ooze posted:The question is how easy will it be to identify his troops. Gaddafi already has a massive notice of what's coming. That's kind of unfortunate because he's known to stoop to any level of ruse already. They'll probably be dressed as nuns. He's also incredibly insane, so he could just lose his poo poo all together and start massacring his own people. He supported Idi Amin emphatically and tried to defend his last days which resulted in the massacre of thousands of Ugandan's.
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Mar 18, 2011 01:48
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Sinteres posted:1. The real lesson of this week seems to be that if you're an African dictator and you want to murder your people you shouldn't be close enough to Europe to embarrass them. And if you're a Middle Eastern dictator and you want to murder your people you should be pals with Saudi Arabia. 1. The lesson is that Middle-East/North-African countries CAN have democracy and succeed even against insane dictators and regimes. It's an inspirational movement that I hope gains even more traction and could majorly shape the history of the Middle-East and possibly the world for the positive. 2. This is a good thing. This is a perfect scenario where Rules of Engagement would inhibit the effectiveness of UN intervention where Gad could easily subvert any air-strikes through underhanded tactics. It's a good thing that there were no specifics mentioned. It helps in military effectiveness, surprise- keeps plans secret, and let's military decide on the best course of action to succeed. 3. Wrong, completely wrong. Arab league will love this. The US staying out of it will only help their image. 4. Obama staying out of this is the best thing for the US that could possibly happen in this scenario. I don't agree with any one point you made at all. In-fact, your points are so ridiculous and out-of-touch with reality .... ...Gaddafi? Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 02:12
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Sinteres posted:I'm not going to compare you to Qaddafi, but you have some ego to think that disagreeing with your opinion = being out of touch with reality. I'm not even sure I oppose what's going to happen, since we haven't heard a real plan. I don't think there's anything wrong with voicing a few reservations as the US starts a third (admittedly much smaller than the other two) war in the broader Middle East. I'm the Gaddafi in the OP! I can't see how a NFZ could be any worse than what would happen if it wasn't sanctioned and the rebels were left to fend for themselves. Gaddafi would massacre his own people en masse with no reservations, to hold power. feedmegin posted:Middle Eastern, no, but this is North Africa. Italy has a rather dubious colonial history in the area from the Mussolini period and earlier and in fact conquered Libya as a colony - I suppose it's better that Italy has been an avid supporter of Libya in current history and has condemned Gaddafi amid the recent revolution though. It does give the NFZ more credence. WhiteHowler posted:Once the Libyan ground radar confirms that we have fighters patrolling, I wouldn't be surprised if CQ keeps the air force grounded and tries to hide the planes in bunkers or something. This- or the pilots and airforce abandon the bases knowing what is coming and the captability of UN forces. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 02:54
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It will be hard for the rebels to push out of Benghazi. I'd be poo poo-scared of being mistaken for Gad forces. A lot of the revolutionaries have taken up captured military uniforms/vehicles, and there is also the defected Gad forces. They're probably hunkering down and staying out of the way for a while, I'd hope.Happydayz posted:You people are seriously overestimating the ability of the rebel forces On the contrary I think the majorty of the rebel forces are just young rebels fighting back and are untrained as you say, but I also think there are organized leaders taking charge from ex-military or the military defectors. They have also organized the rebels to be back-up/support groups- providing supplies and intel, from what I've read. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 04:30
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Happydayz posted:Read the article, there were few if any defecting Libyan military near the frontlines. That article is dated 4 days ago. Since then we have learnt that the defecting forces have been reorganizing and only recently stated they had setup defence in Benghazi ready to fight to their deaths. I also think you underestimate the effectiveness of untrained guerrilla forces in an urban environment, and hit-and-run tactics that rebel forces are using. Now imagine they have no artillery, airforce or heavy armor tanks. I can't see Gad forces winning, especially not in urban environments, the only refuge Gad forces have now that there is a NFZ. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 04:39
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Happydayz posted:
 Libya has 18 months conscription.
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Mar 18, 2011 04:47
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JJ posted:I hate reading this sort of comment on the UN. It's not up to the UN to get "off its rear end". It's up to certain members of the Security Council not to veto resolutions (i.e. Russia & China). The Europeans don't like acting outside of international law (i.e. without a UN mandate). The UN has as many teeth as the permanent members of the Security Council want it to have. No more, no less. The only problem with the UN is that 2 countries that are not Democracies are on the security council. It defeats the entire ideology of what the UN stands for. I also think there are more apt countries that could be permanent members of the SC. Australia, Canada, half of Europe etc. Maybe even have groups as a member. So the commonwealth could be one group that votes, with majority as their SC vote, and then the European Union as another etc. Lastly you could have all the democratic African nations as another, and Middle-East etc. etc. with the main focus on democratic countries with a term limit and UN approved/overviewed voting. er.. anyway on topic...
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Mar 18, 2011 05:23
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Xandu posted:His point was the UN is not a monolithic organization that can just act. It requires sovereign states to get together and agree. I think his point more so was that the UN is severely crippled/ineffective because 2 nations with veto power are working against what the UN should stand for/the democratic ideals of the western world- which ties in with what you're saying that all the nations on the SC need to agree or it's bust. edit: y'll should stop comparing Libya to Iraq and Afghanistan, it's not at all a good analogy in any shape or form. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 05:30
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Happydayz posted:
Well firstly, Afghanistan and Iraq are not apt comparisons or similar in any way. Secondly, I think the biggest problem with your viewpoint is that you (and I) don't know the capability of the rebels right now, and lastly, and most importantly, the situation in Libya is far removed from any comparison you've made. There are many factors to consider that really do put the rebels in the better position right now. 1. Libyan's male adult citizens are all conscripts 2. The biggest advantages Gad forces had over the rebels has been cut-off: airforce, navy, artillery, and desert tank warfare. All easily shutdown by the NFZ. 3. The spirit of the revolution. This isn't a phoney-uprising, it's a movement by the people. 4. Urban warfare capabiltiies of the rebels and improvement of these abilities and organization over time. 5. Overestimating the resolve of the military to kill their own people and not defect over time. I haven't read anything you've posted refuting these points. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 05:50 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 05:45
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Happydayz posted:We've heard this story before - it was called Operation Iraqi Freedom. This is why you are wrong. Operation Iraqi Freedom is nothing like what is happening in Libya. The Iraqis did not revolt against Hussein. The country was not on the verge of civil war and unrest. The UN did not step in, vote, and install an internationally, and most importantly, locally rejoiced military intervention. There is a huge difference. quote:They've already beaten these exact same forces in the cities Happydayz. What they haven't done well at is receiving artillery and airstrikes, which is no longer a major issue. Why you don't get this is frankly confusing. Pretty much this is the biggest factor. He doesn't understand how the NFZ has basically saved the rebels and put them on equal footing with superior numbers and morale. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 06:20
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I think a key factor will be the desert environment, with large distances between cities and only single route highway access that will work against any troop or armour movements of Gad forces to reinforce or resupply. It's pretty much divide and conquer for the rebels.
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Mar 18, 2011 06:48
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Patter Song posted:Not likely, considering most of the likely targets would not be states that have alienated the entire world like Libya. The only non-North Korea candidate that I could think of that would even be conceivable is Burma, and they're a Chinese client state and China would never allow Western troops in Burma. Côte d'Ivoire seems like a possible contender depending on what happens there. eggyolk posted:It's hard to fault China and Russia from abstaining since it's obviously going to escalate into something more than is implied by "no fly zone." You really can. Their intentions aren't as altruistic as they may seem. Happydayz posted:I think there are two big pivot points that will make themselves clear in the next 1-3 days: I actually agree with you for once. The next few days will probably shape or give away how the next weeks and months will go down. quote:The divide between the highways in and of themselves is not a game changer. It will complicate Gadafi's ability to move armor and artillery between the cities. However his infantry and police units will still likely have freedom of movement. Well we agree on some things at least. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 06:57
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God, the US should really just leave this to the EU and AL. Those Republican senators are like children.
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Mar 18, 2011 07:28
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pwnyXpress posted:Ok, pages of speculation on what's going to happen, but what are the Libyan people's reactions to this decision? Well Benghazi was jubilant and celebratory. But I haven't read reactions anywhere else (no access to twitter here.) Paging Brown Moses to the thread.
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Mar 18, 2011 07:39
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Nenonen posted:Wasn't the claim of Khamis' death related to the claim of a suicide airplane attack on the Gaddafi complex in Tripoli, which was disproven? Or have there been other claims of his death since? I believe there was a claim he was injured or killed when Gads Tripoli complex was hit.
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Mar 22, 2011 23:34
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The news of Gad forces being destroyed inside Misratah is great. It might suggest that there are special forces inside the city lasering targets. It would explain why coalition forces left this type of action so late- special forces might have been infiltrating the city covertly. If not, this will prove whether or not coalition forces can pinpoint enemy vehicles inside the towns, which would be a huge boost for rebel morale and operations/organisation. vvvvvvv This is a UN sanctioned resolution to enforce a no fly zone, it's not really war. Why would Obama need congress approval? (I'm not american so have no idea how that works, honestly curious why) Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Mar 23, 2011 |
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Mar 23, 2011 00:57
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euphronius posted:Attacking Libya is like walking the dog for an American President. I can't conceive of a more mundane and uncontroversial use of force. Maybe overthrowing Haiti's government? Hardly uncontroversial. There are those ignorant of what it entails and the reality of the situation in Libya. We even had a poster come in here, where there is all this information to be informed, and say that it's Obama starting another war in the Middle-East (Yes he actually thought Libya is in the Middle-East.) There are also those who just don't like Obama regardless of what he does and use this as hate rhetoric. I suppose they are all short-comings of ignorant people though, not the operation.
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Mar 23, 2011 02:07
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Ticonderoguy posted:I personally group North Africa with the Middle East but mainly because of the cultural similarities (Read: Islam), however there is also some opposition from informed people and this about sums up their argument: I think there are two factors that trump this argument and make it obsolete. One is that this is a UN sanctioned intervention that all nations voted and agreed on (in theory), not a declaration of war by one sovereign nation to another. Secondly, the stance the resolution takes is this is an intervention to remove the ability for Gad to massacre civilians, it is not support for rebels to overthrow their government. In practice this is exactly what is happening as we've seen. Even the bombing of the Gad compound was a surgical strike to remove HQ operations, a legit target. I believe those two factors make a huge difference in the legitimacy of this intervention. It's obvious that the US govt hopes the rebels will overthrow their government and install a democratic system in the country. It's not exactly a morally void or unethical aspiration. Behind the scenes the US is most likely either arming the rebels themselves or encouraging Egypt etc. to arm them (as they have been.) Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Mar 23, 2011 |
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Mar 23, 2011 02:36
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cioxx posted:Greater good. If that what it takes. What greater good? What are you even talking about? The coalition forces would lose all support internationally and inside Libya if they purposefully bombed civilians inside the Libyan TV building. Young Freud posted:I'd rather see a "soft" takedown, where you jam the television signal and replace it with your own broadcasts or international news. This, however, is a good idea. Just rebroadcast Al-Jazeera Arabic. Probably very complicated otherwise they would have done this by now. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Mar 23, 2011 |
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Mar 23, 2011 04:22
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J33uk posted:I think the most concerning thing about this for me is the attitude of Obama himself. This feels so much like an attempt at humanitarian assistance that is entirely at arms length and with international support for intervention being as weak as it is I'm wondering if a few days of airstrikes is going to be enough. He needed to commit hard one way or the other and it feels just a little lacking so far. I'm not sure if he views this is anything more than a necessary distraction to be dealt with. Support for intervention has not been weak at all.. Obama's attitude is pretty consistent with all other military action he has taken too. What at all has he said or done during this that is concerning?
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Mar 23, 2011 07:19
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I don't see how tech savy = informed political awareness. Facebook gives people confidence, who have no idea about politics or history, to express those dumb opinions because it's safe and easy.
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Mar 24, 2011 06:20
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ZetaReticuli49er posted:It's funny that GBS has tended to be mostly anti-war in the past, but now suddenly I feel as if I entered an alternate universe in regards to the Libyan conflict. No the funny thing is that uninformed people like you are suddenly popping into this thread ever since Libya hit mainstream media. To say this intervention is simply war porn proves you have no idea about what has been happening in Libya and that region.
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Mar 24, 2011 09:40
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Baddog posted:I'm saying this is loving silly to get involved in something that probably isn't even a moderate democratic movement. We don't even know wtf it is, because nobody stopped to get any real intelligence on them. Except for maybe the fact the protests before they were being killed were all being held for democracy and rights. And that the National Transitional Council has explicitly said they want to "Form a transitional government to pave the holding of free elections." Or that this all originated from Egypt's revolution for democracy. durp durp it's actually you that lacks the proper intelligence.
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Mar 25, 2011 00:17
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Baddog posted:You implied and other people actually stated that I was a racist for believing that we could be backing the same sort of religious fundamentalists we are fighting almost everywhere else. Well firstly, it is extremely bigoted/ignorant to lump in the civilian populace/rebels of Libya with certain factions and groups we are fighting in completely different countries and regions. Muslim does not = extreme religious fundamentalist. quote:The chief counterterrorism advisor "worried that the Libyan rebels remained largely unknown to American officials, and could have ties to Al Qaeda." He cautioned them that they don't know the agenda of the rebels. NEWS AT 11! As opposed to Gaddafi who openly supports and funds terrorism around the world? Hmm I wonder who I'd choose. quote:It seems to me that guys who stop in the middle of a firefight to do the whole formal prayer ritual, especially when they are getting their asses beat and are in imminent danger of being killed along with all their friends, might be some sort of religious fundamentalists. You have absolutely no understanding of Muslim culture or society. quote:So yah, I guess I am in the same "ignorant racist" camp as the chief counterterrorism advisor. Although I'm not sure what being dubious of religious fundamentalism, of any stripe, has to do with race. 
Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Mar 25, 2011 |
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Mar 25, 2011 02:08
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There was an unconfirmed report that Mubarak was also in a coma. Much jokes and merry making was had.
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Mar 27, 2011 23:09
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but that has been posted twice now, and twice it's been debunked because that person in the article (the rebel leader) doesn't exist. Also the telegraph is retarded. vvvvvvvvvvv Fair enough, Xandu. Also, I don't see why the Taliban would support the Revolutions, they aren't exactly a pro-democracy organisation- especially considering the West supports them. Also, this isn't a religious movement per say, so I can't even see Al Qaeda supporting them. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Mar 28, 2011 |
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Mar 28, 2011 00:45
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Nilbop posted:http://rt.com/news/why-west-bombing-libya/ Well Russia's government shares a lot with Libya's, so what do you expect.
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Mar 28, 2011 07:07
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I wouldn't be surprised if it was still in Gad hands. I don't think that will last very long though. NATO are doing a pretty good job of slowly taking back cities all things considered. People expect way too much in such a short time.
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Mar 28, 2011 07:45
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