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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

shotgunbadger posted:

If you favor 'spreading democracy' you are a neo-con, that's one of their core platforms.
Specifically, it was spreading democracy in the middle-east at gun-point through invasions, but hey do generalize until loving everybody is a neocon

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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

shotgunbadger posted:

Well that's the main way but no the general concept of 'democracy is the best and everyone should have it because we say so' is the platform, they just feel it's acceptable to kick the door in and shoot everything to spread it if you feel you have to.
Then it's not a neocon anymore, wanting to "spread democracy" alone does not make you a neocon, the neoconservative ideology specifically had to do with the idea that in the post-"we won the cold war" the US can and should use its military, unilaterally if necessary, to achieve its foreign policy objectives.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

New Division posted:

The rebels are going to take substantial casualties barring a sudden collapse in the Syrian military, which could happen (but probably not in the next few days or weeks). Assad's days are still numbered though, even if his forces take back Aleppo. It'll just take a little longer.
Why are we of the opinion that Assad's fall is inevitable?

It's a serious rather than rhetorical question.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

OwlBot 2000 posted:

I don't see how things will get better for Egypt without a lot of (non US, non-IMF) aid. China could in theory do something and not have a bunch of evil strings attached ("in order to receive this loan, you must ensure that even more people will be unable to afford food and fuel, and you must sacrifice your public sector to the Milton Friedman, who waits dead but dreaming"), but they've got little reason to assist. Venezuela can't do much, the EU won't do anything, so I guess Egypt is screwed for the foreseeable future even with several Sabbahi terms.
Arab oil states, Qatar, Saudi Arabia etc have already given a lot of money to Egypt post revolution on the same order as what the IMF would give, so that's probably the people you should look at.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Can someone explain or link to me something detailed about how/if Morsi was trying to achieve political monopoly and/or subvert democracy?

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

fspades posted:

I know. Who do you think would benefit the most for selling them to highest bidder? Egypt is hosed for the foreseeable future and they know it. No need to stand around and wait for public reaction to turn against them. They will take the money and run.
The problem is that everyone seems to be viewing this with the analogue of the privatization of state services in the west, where the those services generally do serve the people and are not captured by any group of elite obligarchs. The problem is that the state sector in Egypt seems to almost exclusively owned by and serving the interest of a group of generals. I really have trouble seeing why privatization would be worse.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Plafop posted:

What do you expect to happen? When you're having money problems at home, when you're in debt, do you go on a spending spree? No that's ludicrous, you tighten your belt to get through the hard times. Well the hard times for Egypt are especially hard especially with their little "democratic" experiment blowing up in their faces. It will take a lot of belt tightening to right the ship again and attract private investment.
Regardless of the economic consequences or motivation I got a feeling whoever end up cutting food/fuel subsidies might very well be dangling from a lamppost soon after.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Best Friends posted:

The Iraqi army is basically a collection of homeless people given uniforms and, occasionally, firearms.

Unlimited US money, US training, Iranian support and that's the best they could do. People talk about modern Iraq like it's basically a Shia joint but this military collapse is making it clear it's more of a South Vietnam situation where the state is held together by corruption and thin tape.

There's the Iraqi army but then there's the Shiite militia which will defend Shiite majority areas. And those guys probably actually get paid/are motivated to fight because they have nowhere to run.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Negative Entropy posted:

In this vein, why is Maliki's government being called "Safavid"? Is this some historical revanchism to try and paint their war as Ottomans vs Safavids? How does this historical revanchism connect to calling Mosul by its Assyrian name?
Is the ISIS leadership composed of hardcore historical strategy game nerds?

Because Shia Islam largely spread through the region due to the Safavid Dynasty in Iran. IIRC the extent of Shia in the region corresponds almost exactly with the borders of the Safavid empire. Shia is synonymous with "Persian" in large parts of the Arab world. It's basically declaring Mikali's government to be a Shiite Iranian puppet.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

the JJ posted:

I mean, point to Italy being humiliated by... being lovely at killing Africans? Spain humiliated by the loss of it's empire? Japan humiliated by a national Napoleon complex?

Why didn't France go fascist after being rolled up in WWII then? Why isn't the UK fascist now?* We lost Vietnam, did that have us goosestepping?** Just aboutany culture can point to some sore point and get mad about it, but I think if you're seeing those sore points get blown up into become a reason to commit genocide you're looking at a symptom, not a cause.

Because France more or less got the territory it wanted out of the war (Alscaes-Lorraine), whereas in Italy the territory that it wanted/was sorta promised went to Yugoslavia instead. The "mutilated victory" myth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutilated_victory) is almost as powerful as the stab in the back myth.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

JT Jag posted:

Ok. Sure. Everything bad that happens in the Middle East is entirely the United States' fault and no one else's. Assad is a saint, everything he does is out of necessity and for the good of his country. The United States should just leave poor plucky little ISIS alone.

Is that what you wanted to hear? Did I miss anything?

It's funny because back in 2011 a good portion of D&D genuinely thought of this Qaddaffi

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Tezzor posted:

Don't call them leftists. They're liberals, and this is bog-standard schtick.

No true leftists

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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The Fighting Slowpokes

VitalSigns posted:

He didn't say it was weird in the surprising sense.

He said it's "creepy" and "weird and dumb" in the "totally unrealistic fantasy that's inappropriate for a world leader and actively detrimental to his country to the extent that it influences his words and actions" sense.

To be fair this type of fantasy is pretty common in countries which are 1) Sorta poor and 2) sufficient time has passed between the last great empire the country headed and today that everyone forgot how problematic said empire was in the first place

Examples include: Russia/USSR, Turkey/Ottomans, PRC/Imperial China, Hungary/pre-trianon Hungary, Italy/Roman Empire etc etc

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

computer parts posted:

Aside from Taiwan (which they don't acknowledge as being separate in the first place) the PRC doesn't want any of the territory that the Qing had.



Mongolia is another territory which was part of the Qing empire but not part of the PRC, although yeah not many people in China really gives a poo poo about outter Mongolia.

But imperial China in general had hegemony over East Asia, and had Korea etc as tributary states, and was clearly superior to Japan for most of its history. I think that's the empire that most Chinese would want.


quote:

Really China is kind of unique because they've had a "the old ways are bad, we must forge our own future" schtick since 1912.
I don't think that's true today anymore, China is rapidly experiencing a revival of Confucianism as a worldview.

Typo fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Sep 12, 2014

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

New Division posted:

Yeah, and I would never say that it's surprising that some Turks might get nostalgic for the Ottoman Empire. Hell, there are probably a few Greeks who long to revive the glory of Byzantium right now.

Neo-Ottomanism is a partial if not complete repudiation of the secular Turkish state that Ataturk tried to establish though, so there's a quite a political edge to it in Turkey.

Do they actually care about Ottomanism as an ideology? Or is it just "Fatherland strong when it is Ottoman Empire" type of nationalism?

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

euphronius posted:

I mean the end result is the cb for violent regime change is now "possibility that someone from this place could participate in a violent act in the future, maybe" which is pure Bush doctrine and pure just naked imperial aggression.

lemme guess you expected the buzz words "bush doctrine" and "imperial aggression" to actually mean something in this argument

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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The Fighting Slowpokes

vapoursquid posted:

If you don't think that jihadism represents any sort of threat to the west I really don't know what to tell you.

To be fair threat to the west has always being exaggerated, even now.

It's just that anyone who uses the words "naked imperial aggression" when it comes to stopping ISIS is probably still living in 2003.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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New Division posted:

Can't wait for the current head of the House of Saud to croak. He's pretty ancient now isn't he? That should lead to some interesting stuff in the kingdom. It's been too long since we've seen a good war of succession.

Saudi Arabia is like westeros and ISIS is like the white walkers

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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New Division posted:

That's good, that means ISIS is unlikely to ever actually show up in Saudi Arabia

The bastard son of a Saudi nobleman will make sure of that

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Mightypeon posted:

Actually, communists/leftists/secularists were tortured pretty intensively after the Mullahs turned on them.
Iran is by no means a good guy. They may be a bit more rational about it, and were arguably quite threatened by them, but they did commit pretty massive torture.

But then, this was in the same time period as Opertation Phoenix and other such fun...

Leftists in Iran were massacred wholesome in 1988 after left-wing exiles tried (and failed) to invade the country

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_executions_of_Iranian_political_prisoners

Typo fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Dec 18, 2014

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
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BlitzkriegOfColour posted:

Worked for Iranian mullahs.


When did the Iranian Mullahs conduct terrorism in Iran pre-1979?

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Mightypeon posted:

The Tudeh had gently caress all to do with the Mojaheddin El Kalq and their antics, nor did any of the other non MEK groups.
And if the Tudeh would have tried such a thing, they would have come in with the aid of the Soviets, and not with the aid of Sadamm.

Yeah, that's true too.

Didn't stop the Islamists from murdering them though

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

ChairMaster posted:

How do these various groups of ethnic cleansers know who's sunni or shia when they're rolling through a village full of people they don't personally know? Do they have like a quiz or do they just assume that all the people living in that one area were probably either all sunni or all shia?

One of the ways is checking the ID card of the person in question and see if they have a Shia name or a Sunni name.

Which actually isn't all that accurate and frequently result in killing the wrong ethnic but that's just their version of collateral damage I guess.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Brown Moses posted:

I tell you what, this stuff is a lot loving weirder when you're in the middle of it.

what are you doing in turkey dude

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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The Fighting Slowpokes

Morrow posted:

Urban areas are generally opposed to the AKP, they drew their support from rural conservatives and religious-types.

haha the turkish gop

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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Mightypeon posted:

Pictures look more like people fraternizing with the soldiers to me.

Erdogan tried to defang the military, but well, he hosed himself over by sending the military into multiple conflicts which made him rely on it.
He also simultaneously messed up his relations with the Urban middle class and with the Kurds.

His backing of ISIS also meant that he was no longer the most Islamist guy in town (which means that hardcore islamists dont actually support him," real and authentic Caliphate" is right over the border).

Pentagon dislikes him for attacking the Kurds, Russia dislikes him for shooting down planes, EU dislikes them for trying to blackmail them with refugees. Oh yeah, Gulf Arabs now also dislike him for apologizing to Russia and starting a 180 degree turn in Syria. He even managed to piss of China by backing "Turkmen" (actually Uighur) insurgents in Syria who were seeing it as a training ground for Jihad in Xinjiang.

Erdogan has zero friends, and way too many enemies.

TLDR: Dont purge if you want to go to war soon.
The only major powers he did not manage to totally piss are Japan, India and Brazil.

the coup clearly show that comrade endrogan did not purge enough

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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idk I feel at this point the coup is gonna fail

I mean at least they have to have endrogen in custody for it to work

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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OAquinas posted:

Slow down Lee Harvey. Coup has the First Army disagreeing with it along with the major two parties, and Erd's safely out of the country. Not over by a long shot.

the first army commander is disagreeing with it but idk if his direct subordinates have all mutinied or not and how much control he actually has over the tanks atm

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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Rincewinds posted:

I can't believe someone could be dumb enough to start a coup without the president being somewhere you could arrest him, he has massive support, if you want this to be bloodless you need to make sure he can't address the public.

the coup plotters might have planned to arrest him but hosed up due to like a minor mistiming or last min change of plans or something

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

farraday posted:

If the leader was completely out of the country there are certain advantages to doing it, especially in an autocratic system where decision making is paralyzed without direct input.

That being said yeah that seems like a major mistake in this particular situation.

except for the leader can just facetime his subordinates in this day and age

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
imo hitting the internet kill switch would have being better than arrest endrogan

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
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yeah the coup is prob gonna fail

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Mightypeon posted:

My take is that the perception of failure may be sufficient for the coup to fail in reality as well.

What is probably good for everyone involved is that foreign powers so far arent intervening.

internal power maneuvers such as coups are like 95% about perception, if people perceive that the coup failed then the coup has in fact failed

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
the coupsters hosed up, this is a Moscow 1991 level incompetent coup rather than Egypt 2013 one

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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Constant Hamprince posted:

He yells about how the Gulenists are out to get him so much he practically could have re-used the speech.

so are the gulenists the trostkyist plot analogue?

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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The Fighting Slowpokes

StashAugustine posted:

Out of the loop for past few hours, does it currently look like Erdogan is succeeding?

it's not so much erdogan succeeding as the coup failed with the first hour or two

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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cochise posted:

I love how Bob Baer is on CNN talking about the coups he particpated in when he was in the CIA and compared them to this coup in Turkey. He said it was too weak to ever accomplish anything like the ones "we did" :v:

to be fair he has a point, man back in the days at least when the CIA coup something they don't have a bunch of soldiers standing around and go off meekly when some cop arrest them

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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failed coup! very low energy. sad!

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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lamentable dustman posted:

So has there ever been a worse planned coup in modern history before because this one seemed really badly planned, I would think you would want to be able to take the President in hand

the august coup in soviet union 1991 was pretty much as bad

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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

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farraday posted:

No this is effectively over. With Istanbul mostly secure and reports coming in now across the country indicating that police forces have moved in to make sure more army units can't take action even if they wanted to (see Zohar's latest), the remains of the forces in Ankara and whatever is left in Istanbul can only really achieve self immolation. Some may choose that route but it's generally unpopular with secularists.

what they mean is basically that there might be some holdouts who will choose to open fire and thus creating a low level conflict that might last for days or weeks...which is gonna be very destabilizing for the country

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