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With Manbij completely surrounded, is there any reason the remaining fighters couldn't simply be starved out? Wouldn't that be much less casualty intensive for the SDF? Or there still a substantial civilian population present that would suffer?
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Jul 24, 2016 00:37
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icantfindaname posted:Iran is actually a fairly wealthy, developed country, at least compared to places like Iraq, prewar Syria or Egypt. They're about as wealthy as Turkey or Russia, or would be if not for the sanctions. They can probably afford to shovel money into Syria (which is not a big country) quite easily Especially considering Iranian government revenue is increasing quite substantially at the moment from the increases in their oil exports in the last year or so. Even if Syria became a real money sink for them it would probably at worst just cancel out the increased oil revenue.
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Sep 28, 2016 22:43
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I really enjoyed fade5's informative posts with news summaries/maps from on the ground in the Middle East. This thread used to have a lot more of those, and similar high quality posts from other posters. When I see 70 new posts on the thread I get excited but then having to read through Assad rapechat and Czer's Iran uber alles back and forth is just terrible.
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Oct 15, 2016 14:48
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I wonder if the Kurds may try to link the cantons south of Al-Bab, instead of the more usually discussed North of it. It would obviously mean giving up on control of the town but it would also let the Turkish backed FSA waste time and casualties on taking it, buying the Kurds a bit of time to solidify a canton connection. Probably depends on how heavily ISIS are garrisoning it.
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Oct 20, 2016 17:57
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Sinteres posted:
This. Its roughly 25miles from actual Turkish territory to the west of Aleppo to the city, crossing almost entirely rebel held land. This would be by far the easiest/most logical way to break the siege of Aleppo, if this was an actual Turkish goal. Failing that, going through ISIS held Al-Bab instead of Kurdish territory would only add about 10miles to the distance Turkish supported rebels would need to cover from their controlled land to the North of Aleppo. And would also involve liberating people from ISIS along the way, as a nice additional benefit. The only reason to go through Kurdish territory to "liberate Aleppo" is when attacking the Kurds is the actual real goal.
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Oct 26, 2016 20:55
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When Aleppo falls, as it almost certainly will, I look forward to seeing what new justification Al-Saqr comes up with for why Turkey/the FSA continue to attack the SDF instead of ISIS. "You see, first glorious Erodgan needs to focus all his efforts on removing the dangerous, perfidious, Kurd. Only once this has been completed can other targets even be considered"
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Oct 27, 2016 00:48
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Focusing their resources on linking the cantons via Al-Bab would seem a much better idea than attacking Raqqa. Even if taking Raqqa didn't turn into a horrible sinkhole for both men & material (which it probably will) its well outside the majority Kurdish areas, so won't be much use to them in the long-run will it?
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Nov 2, 2016 21:07
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Deteriorata posted:They're probably hoping that it will make taking Mosul easier. ISIS probably doesn't have the manpower or resources to defend both simultaneously at this point. I've seen it mentioned that Mosul was being left to Iraqi (rather than Kurdish) forces to seize. That Kurdish forces were only interested in taking some more territory on the Nineveh plains around Mosul. If thats accurate, the Kurds may not have that much to gain from ISIS withdrawing at pace from urban Mosul. I fear that the Kurds have decided to trust US assurances of long-term support in return for engaging in a costly Raqqa offensive. Instead of going with a more realpolitik solution and trying link the cantons to put them in the best possible medium-term position. They should probably ask the Montagnards how well that will work out.
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Nov 3, 2016 14:13
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Squalid posted:The last block of Sirte in Libya has been liberated from IS. It took six months and 470 US air strikes. The operation was initially predicted to take two months. At least 2,500 people have died, and many more have been injured. Do you or anyone else have an updated map of the current zones of control in Libya? The most recent I can find is from 3 months ago in September of this year.
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Dec 5, 2016 18:55
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Squalid posted:I don't think anything has substantially changed since then, besides IS being evicted from its last few blocks. It's impossible to know what's going on in Tripoli, I really wish I had a better explanation of that mess. Ah. It does seem to be the forgotten step-sibling of attention, far behind both Syria and Iraq in coverage.
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Dec 5, 2016 19:49
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Ardennes posted:Also, it is rather annoying to access SA in Russia. Is it blocked? I suppose with "evil, known CIA operative" Brown Moses as a moderator it probably wouldn't be too in favour in the Kremlin.
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Dec 6, 2016 17:46
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The maps of Aleppo over the last week or so remind me of that The Incredible Shrinking Israel map meme. The rebels there have to know they're royally screwed by now.
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Dec 6, 2016 19:19
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Throatwarbler posted:I haven't heard Assad or the Russians say anything contrary to that, and anyway Amaq (official IS news outlet) is generally a trustworthy source as far as IS gains are concerned. If they say they control the city there is little reason to believe otherwise. How much of a panic retreat do you have to be in to not even have a spare driver to hop into a tank/truck and drive it away at speed from the enemy? They can't all have been broken-down. The SAA garrison/local units never cease to amaze.
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Dec 12, 2016 00:55
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With Aleppo fully fallen I wonder if the reliable 'elite' government troops will now be moved for an anti-ISIS revenge push. I've read reports the SAA is furious at the loss (again) of Palmyra. Maybe a move to re-connect DEZ will be on the cards.
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Dec 13, 2016 14:43
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Sinteres posted:Michael Flynn co-wrote a book about fighting radical Islam with a National Review columnist who finished every article after 9/11 with "Faster please" as a call to war with Iran, so please look forward to it. I'm surprised he didn't go the full hog and run with Tehran delenda est.
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Dec 13, 2016 20:06
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Potrzebie posted:I want to go to Somaliland. "Tom Brady, what are you going to do next after having won Superbowl LI? " "I'M GOING TO SOMALILAND!"
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Jan 5, 2017 13:39
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Its easier to just scroll past the people writing at length to define the evilness/lack of evilness of the American Imperium. Sooner or later theres always a good news update like Saladin Rising or steinrokkan's a few posts up.
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Jan 8, 2017 01:56
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The logistics of moving a command center from Raqqa to al-Qa'im through large open desert areas while Russia/the US control the skies must be fairly... interesting.
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Feb 21, 2017 19:26
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Sinteres posted:This is a reasonable statement, and I speculated in this thread weeks ago that Turkey could be hoping for this outcome since it would be easier than trying to take and hold a bunch of new territory, but what I sort of don't understand is how the rebel groups benefit from this. Maybe they don't like the SDF either, but presumably they like the regime even less. How did they benefit from their involvement in this operation? I guess Turkey's less likely to walk away from territory they already hold and tell the rebels they're on their own, but that would seem pretty unlikely after the effort they just put into taking Al Bab anyway. I would guess Turkey will now push their rebels to attack Afrin. That will occupy them and keep them from starting skirmishes with Assad's troops. Medium/long-term I think Turkey would be happy enough with the SDF pushed back East of the Euphrates, regardless of if its their rebels or the SAA that holds Manbij.
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Mar 5, 2017 16:41
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Yeah, the key qualifier there "fit for active duty" probably means the Russians judging troops capable of a decent standard of offensive action (ie, troops meeting Russian or European operational standards). Which makes a bit more sense.
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Mar 8, 2017 21:33
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Do ISIS make a habit of stockpiling large amounts of foodstuff? Could they not be simply penned in and starved out? I know the civilians would suffer in this, but the alternative of a difficult assault in a crowded urban environment will lead to lots of civilian casualties too. And lots more deaths for the attacking force.
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May 11, 2017 00:10
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Brother Friendship posted:ISIS will hoard as much food, ammunition, hostages and soldiers into as strong a position as possible and force the Iraqi army fight for every single inch. It's a murder suicide of as much of the Mosul population as they can seize as well as great cultural treasures. It's like the rest of Mosul but amplified due to a number of factors in play, chief among them being that the fighters left to ISIS are abandoned foreigners who can't blend back into the local population and are wanted men in their home countries. What choice do they have but to fight to the death? The question is how much resistance can they offer and how much damage can they inflict before utterly breaking. But thats my exact point. Why not save the Iraqi army the casualties, and just let ISIS sit there and starve? They surely couldn't last for too long with no hope of resupply.
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May 11, 2017 16:00
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Engaging in door to door urban combat in the old city, densely populated by ISIS fighters, will also result in huge civilian casualties though. Neither scenario would prevent civilian deaths, but one of them at least would minimize Iraqi army casualties.
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May 11, 2017 16:34
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Uncle Kitchener posted:Places like Isfahan, Tabriz and other state capitals can also have this contrasting dynamics. They can have their varying degrees of extremes. While I can get 5 lashes in middle of Muharram In Gorgan for wearing an orange shirt, other places can have much severe punishments like Tabriz and Isfahan. Whats wrong with orange shirts? Interesting post overall though. Whatever about conservative rural voters in the US or other Western countries, I always feel so bad for the secular middle class people in Istanbul or Tehran, who really have a different world view to their rural brethren.
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May 14, 2017 23:20
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The Kurds will probably be happy enough handing over relatively population dense Arab areas like Raqqa to the SAA in the medium term. They'll doubtless get some fairly significant concessions in return, and will get to ensure they remain a Kurdish majority state. I think ideally for the Kurds they'd swap any of the territory along the Southern portion of the Euphrates they take for the possibility of establishing a corridor to Afrin. But that depends on if the SAA is in a position to offer that, ie if Turkey retains its holdings in Northern Syria or not.
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May 15, 2017 11:51
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Sinteres posted:I highly recommend watching this. Remember the Saudi ambassador who smoothly deflected when asked why his country doesn't need democracy? This is the opposite of that. Thats brilliant. The prolonged moment of panic as he just sits silently trying to come up with an answer...any answer.... And still only manages to come out with gibberish.
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May 30, 2017 23:15
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Looks like the Libyan National Army is slowly consolidating its gains, if that map is accurate. Another 3-5 years and we might have a functioning Libyan state.
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May 31, 2017 22:44
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Antagonizing the US by repeatedly pushing towards Al-Tanf seems a silly move. A push towards DEZ with a diversion towards Al Qa'im would also open a land route to Iran. A less efficient one yes, but one that wouldn't result in US air strikes at least. Plus it would help relieve pressure on DEZ.
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Jun 8, 2017 18:04
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The tell-all books released in ten years time by the people who served in the Trump administration are going to be fascinating. The whole system just seems so broken.
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Jun 8, 2017 22:55
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catfry posted:Are people here particularly interested in this hypothetical discussion about airlift or should I drop it? It's not particularly relevant. I think its interesting. Its fairly thread relevant given its probably an option currently being considered by Qatar.
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Jun 12, 2017 21:46
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Israel also suffered more casualties as a percentage of their population in individually both the First Lebanon War (1982) and the Intifada (2000-2008) than the United States did in Vietnam. The 2 month long Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2014 had about 2/3rds as many Israeli casualties proportionally as the US has suffered in 16 years of operations in Afghanistan this century. So the more accurate statement Schizotek can make in future is "Israel hasn't been at war in almost exactly 3 years".
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Jun 14, 2017 14:11
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Hezbollah would win easily militarily against the Lebanese army. They'd also be opposed by 2/3rds+ of the Lebanese population if they tried though, which is the issue. Only a hardline minority within the already minority Shia population would support a Hezbollah coup. So even if/when Hezbollah defeated the Lebanese army they would have to engage in a lengthy campaign against most of the country's population rising in insurrection. Far better for them to continue in their current stance, as the (quite successful) defender against Israel in the South. And as the political movement and border guard for the Shia population areas. The very recent, prolonged, experience of a bloody civil war is whats keeping Lebanon (relatively) stable. All three sides (Sunni, Shia and Christian) are terrified of the country descending back into civil war, which is preventing them from getting more involved in Syria. Its why Hezbollah have been so quiet in Southern Lebanon in recent years too - they realized that the rest of the country wouldn't tolerate the punitive Israeli counterstrikes on country-wide civilians and infrastructure that would follow more Hezbollah provocations.
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Jun 14, 2017 19:37
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SickZip posted:Its a final looting of their country on the way out. Sell everything possible to suckers, move to london/new york/berlin and let it collapse. Saudi Arabia had a population of 3mn in 1950, smaller than Ireland. Its going to have a population of 40mn by 2030, or not far off Spain. Its insane growth. I don't think people realize how much of a ticking time bomb this Saudi demographic expansion is going to be. With climate change, and oil declining, within a decade or two its going to essentially leave a population with enough agriculture to support 10mn people (at absolute best) out of a population of 40-50mn, and no real economy to give funds to import goods with. And on top of that a state-wide adherence to hardcore fundamentalist Islam. Saudi's 2030s years are going to be worse than Syria's 2010s were/are. Blut fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 19:45
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Ardennes posted:Admittedly, the Saudis via OPEC still have a considerable ability to re-balance the oil market if they so wish, but they don't partly because bin Salman would rather see the Iranians suffer (and the Iranians also obviously want to maximize their advantage). OPEC's ability to re-balance the market is diminishing on a daily basis. Shale production, green energy, and the rapid uptake of electric cars should have it definitively sidelined well before 2030. The IMF reckons that Saudi's financial reserves will be exhausted within 5 years if things go on as they are currently. Its probably unlikely we'll see either a) a massive uptick in oil prices or b) the implementation of successful (hugely unpopular) wide-scale government spending reform in Saudi before then. I'd say their current efforts of minor spending reform, and attempts to develop new revenue from things like the IPO of Aramco, may pad that out by a few more years. But its unlikely to last 10+.
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Jun 21, 2017 21:01
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Given the ultimatum style of the list of demands pointing towards further escalation, I wonder if the fact an occupation of Qatar would probably be rather revenue positive for Saudi might be a factor for MbS and his planning. It didn't work out for Saddam with Kuwait, but with Trump in power I'm not sure how likely the US is to step in this time - especially based on the reaction so far.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:38
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Even if Sisi were overthrown, how would a new Egyptian government stabilize the economy? I presume in such a case the Saudi and US funding would dry up, leaving them in an even worse place. Thats probably a factor in many Egyptians minds.
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Jun 29, 2017 14:01
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Ham posted:The inflation measures published by the Egyptian Central Bank are based on monthly computed consumer price indices, and they're basically as much data as you could hope for. Check this publication (page 72/93): What's the alternative, though? If Sisi was removed would an incoming Muslim Brotherhood (or other) government not have to implement pretty much the same book balancing efforts, given the huge deficit?
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Jun 30, 2017 16:53
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Ardennes posted:Honestly, the heart of the matter is I don't know what Egypt has to sustain itself in the long-term future, it still has a large and growing population, an enormous deficit and dangerous trade imbalance. Egyptian agriculture and resource collection is tapped, tourism is going undoubtedly suffer and I don't know if Egypt can really compete with Europe as far as advanced manufacturing goes. If anything I have a feeling Egypt might be one of a few "canary" countries. This is what I was getting at by asking what an alternative to Sisi would achieve. The cost of corruption that Ham / Al-Saqr discuss are certainly substantial, but Saudi Arabia's financial support of Sisi must either outweigh these or come close. The Egyptian economy is a total basket case, and only seems likely to get worse in the future. A revolution that overthrew Sisi, and more insecurity caused by that, will only further hasten the decline of tourism and general economic collapse. Sisi's government making efforts to balance the budget, while keeping the country relatively stable, and while lobbying the Saudis for more funding, is the best (well, least bad) short/medium-term economic prospect.
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Jun 30, 2017 21:08
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I wonder how long Raqqa will last. 2 weeks? 4 weeks max? It'll be very interesting to see where the SDF aims for after that.
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Jul 3, 2017 19:42
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Count Roland posted:Apparently KSA and friends are quietly dropping the demand for Al Jazeera to be shut. Mohammad bin Salman's run of great successes continues. With only 50 more years of him in charge hes going to have a hell of a wikipedia page by the end of it.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:14
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