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Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

fade5 posted:


So apparently the US is going to say the YPG has withdrawn regardless of whether the YPG actually withdraws or not.

Well that doesn't sound like abandonment, that sounds like we're lying out our asses and hoping Turkey buys it.

So, Erdogan gets his ego fed while the SDF retains actual, concrete support?

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Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

fade5 posted:

There's a difference between "we refuse to work with you because of this" and "we're gonna chase away your SOF and threaten to murder them if they come back".

The SDF was angry at the US for participating in the Euphrates Shield operation, but they didn't start attacking US SOF guys in Tal Abyad or Rmelian in response.

It's shocking how bad at basic diplomatic procedures some regimes are. If Erdogan was halfway competent there would be no reason for the west to be so supportive of the PYD, and yet here we are.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

thatfatkid posted:

So you're saying that they weren't actually "peaceful protestors" and were instead actively attempting to overthrow their government? Cool. Glad we agree.

There were a large number of peaceful protestors, Gaddafi had the army fire at the peaceful protestors, and as a result a decent chunk of the army defected to protect the protestors, and Gaddafi was later overthrown.

Obviously this was a process that happened over a number of weeks, but there's still an incredibly basic cause and effect here.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Czer posted:

I mean, I won't be as owned as the rebels, they will actually die. So i'll take that salt.

Fascist politicide apologists are like bedbugs in this thread. One will just show up every once in a while.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

You're still claiming that they've accomplished something that, say, no socialist regime has been able to pull off.

They've been at it for all of 37 years. I expect to live another fifty or so. Sorry if I'm skeptical about your claim that reformists coming to power in Iran "isn't something any of us will see in our lifetime[s]."

Yeah, I fully expect to see major changes within a generation or so. To be more precise, I fully expect to see major changes because of the next generation in Iran.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010


So I assume this isn't propaganda meant for us. To what extent does he care what the rest of NATO thinks about statements like this?

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Rent-A-Cop posted:

The US is actively supporting his enemies and the rest of NATO is both irrelevant and too busy banning burqas and frothing about refugee rape gangs to notice.

Oh, I know that, but I still get the feeling that if push really, truly came to shove, the US would feel obligated to support him because Turkey is a member of NATO if for almost no other reason. Even after the insanity of the coup period, the administration still valued Turkey enough to send Biden to try to smooth things over.

I don't know why he would want to poo poo on that relationship for seemingly no benefit whatsoever. But then again, Erdogan has been nothing the past few years if not an irrational actor.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Al-Saqr posted:

1) that wont happen, because Turkey isn't Assad.

2) To me what matters is that a definitive corridor is established for the rebels to begin projecting and saving Aleppo. Turkey doesn't need to do the fighting itself, all it has to do clear the way for the rebels. Also, I don't give a drat about the SDF, if they're not going to save the people of Aleppo then they can gently caress off elsewhere and concentrate on their job of fighting ISIS. Anyone who is not aiding lifting the siege should get the gently caress out of the way. Syrian Democratic forces my rear end, their only prescribed job is to fight ISIS and help establish a fait accompli of an ethno-centric tribal fiefdom. If there's a bunch of SDF positions between turkey, the rebels and Aleppo, smash the gently caress out of them and clear the way for the tanks and trucks with supplies to save the city, if the SDF are not going to fight Assad in the places that matter then clear the gently caress out and let the people who want to save kids like Omran do their jobs.

Yes, this is all good and just because Kurds don't have children.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Al-Saqr posted:

how the hell did you conclude that from everything I wrote. At no point did I say that. I said that if there's any SDF military positions between you and saving Aleppo, and the SDF wont get out of the way or wont help with saving Aleppo, then sorry, you have full permission to drive right through them to get to Aleppo.

Except no you don't. You can't attack a third party who's in the way of your foreign policy aims. I mean, you can justify it in a realist sense of global interactions, but not in any sort of moral sense.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Al-Saqr posted:

Listen, I agree, turkey is playing a dirty game, but in this case when it comes to Aleppo, It's not a foreign policy aim it's a human life and human rights aim, Aleppo is about to get genocided, if you're not helping stopping it and if you're going to try and stop people from stopping it, then you're not a third party but Youre actively helping the side doing the genociding, either step aside or get hosed.

Guess what, if your foreign policy is to save an entire city of people from getting murdered by another group whose foreign policy is to gas and burn them to submission, then you're in in the right and should do what it takes to save them, given that there's no way left to diplomatically talk them down from being fascist mass murderers.

The Kurds have to toe a precarious political line between American and Russian interests if they want to not get annexed and brutalised by one of many hostile neighbours. Even giving the Turkish military access would break that precarious balance.

Even that being said, if I thought the Turks were legitimately going to successfully lift the siege of Aleppo, I may even agree with you then. What is happening to the city because of Assad's reign of terror is a despicable atrocity against human dignity and I have no argument with you there. I just don't see the Turkish military directly taking action against the SAA, which is what would be needed to prevent the actual siege from collapsing.

Meanwhile, if Erdogan had continued with his original plan of diplomacy with the PKK/PYD in order to secure political stability in the north, we could be looking at a situation much more favourable to the end of alleviating the siege.

VikingSkull posted:

Turkey, noted anti-genocide actor on the world stage

Nobody is claiming that Turkey is firmly against human rights abuses, but Stalin did prevent atrocities by taking out the Nazi regime.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Is it possible that the poor performance of the Turkish military has anything to do with the recent purges? Or is that just digging for a factor that isn't really there?

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Sinteres posted:


Still waiting to hear if you think Arab lives matter in Yemen too, or only in Aleppo.

Knock poo poo like this off. I don't agree with everything Al-Saqr says, but pretending he's some sort of advocate for the Gulf States is completely disingenuous. Do I think his opinions on the SDF are a bit harsh? Yes. But he has had a pretty consistent track record of opposing Sunni, Shiite and Secular authoritarianism when it comes down to it. This is more than I can say about some posters' border-line/actual apologism for Assad.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Sinteres posted:

My guess is that Hillary secretly hopes Aleppo falls before she takes office so it's not her problem and then they can cobble together a face-saving "no fly zone" in the areas Turkish and US backed rebels have already solidified a hold on. Russia doesn't give a poo poo about the Turkish border region, and has actively tried to get Assad to negotiate with the Kurds.

Hasn't she tilted her hand to the effect of supporting the SDF over the Turkish-backed elements in Syria, though (via comments made during the debates)? One of my wilder hypotheses is that the reason Turkey picked now to intervene is because they're afraid her administration won't be as helpful to them.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010


This is the most surreal loving poo poo. It's like someone posted a Cosmo article interspersed with lines from Mein Kampf. :psyduck:

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Saladin Rising posted:

One more three letter organization for the pile: SNR, Syrian National Resistance (or Syrian Patriotic Resistance). This is the name of the new hybrid SAA/SDF faction near Al Bab, and they kicked things off with a pretty strongly-worded statement:
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/803398530949906432
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5ffwl5/inaugural_statement_from_snr_syrian_national/
Helpful background info on the group:

Notable things about the statement:
-The wording pulls from the playbooks of both the SDF (free, democratic) and SAA (patriotic, united).
-Very anti-Turkey/anti-Ottoman in tone, even by SDF standards
-Hitler name drop, but it's in reference to the Ottoman genocides so it doesn't feel out of place
-Jarablus to Iskandarun. Iskandarun is in Hatay province, aka that little chunk of Turkey that Syria wants back.
-The SNR has a flag:

It looks very similar to the SDF's flag, complete with Hatay being part of Syria.

I guess this simplifies the race to Al Bab a little.

Any idea what this means in the long run? I'm wondering if the Russians convinced the regime to give the SDF the federalism they wanted.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

I'm pretty sure the SDF see Assad less as an 'ally' and more of a 'lesser of multiple evils, sometimes'. Even if shooting incidents are kept to a minimum, the two factions are going to have something akin to a cold civil war once this is over. And like people have said, over is a relative term.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

Al-Saqr posted:

Oh hey like I said all along they're actually on the side of Assad all along.

This is not remotely true. Remember that Turkish intervention in Syria that you were cheering for so loudly? That intervention guaranteed that Rojava and the regime would be closely aligned. If Erdogan had the diplomatic aptitude of a child playing Risk, this could have been avoided.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

TildeATH posted:

Of course there weren't. There were Greek-speaking Romans, Nabataeans, and Jews.

So naturally, PartisanGirl would be an advocate of Reform Zionism under the supervision of European colonisation - after all, it's what the map says!

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Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

In other news, it sounds like D-Day on Raqqa has begun right on time.

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