|
Generalizations ahoy! I don't think this is a 100% it, but something like 75% of the situation. The Arabs has a huge youth population bubble that's unemployed The Arab's highest political unit is the tribe. I think that you're going to get continuing higher levels of unrest for a couple of decades until this bulge gets into their 30s. Strongman of the tribe gets control of the seat of government and the tax money, showers it into his faction/tribe until the money runs out/fails to give the tribe enough money, etc and is replaced by another strongman. I see it as fighting over a desk job with aircon in the Ministry of Something, rather than raging for democracy now. I can't see them developing jobs any other way. Corruption, lack of responsibility (the jews made me strip the copper from the traffic lights), lack of imagination (able to adapt western technology but not create any), with gently caress you got mine tribalism on top. They have some big cultural road blocks.
|
# ¿ Feb 19, 2011 02:02 |
|
|
# ¿ May 3, 2024 04:05 |
|
I see it as tribal groups competing with each other to hold onto the reigns of government to reward their own followers only. After decolonization, I see it a major issue dealt with in a number of ways. An African example; you end up with a Nigeria with the President and Prime Minister being one Christian / one Muslim not both as a roadblock to full blown civil war. You've got a Lebanon where when each sectarian and tribal community is weak, and there is no majority, there's peace. Then with outside influence you end up with a cycle of civil war as each group goes for the big prize, the PLO and Sunnis, Israeli backing the Christians, Iran and Hezbollah. You've got a Yemen that's had tribe versus tribe adopting different outside banners for funding so they can take over the country for themselves. Once it was Communism and Western, now they go for Al Qaeda and US anti terrorism funding. The only success story I can think of in the Middle East would be Turkey with the Young Turks and Kemalism and that's probably unique.
|
# ¿ Feb 19, 2011 02:38 |
|
MrQwerty posted:I did not know that Arabs all live in the pre-Middle Ages! No I see it as the unemployed young raging against their circumstances. I see it as wanting jobs first, and they're protesting the systems failure to provide it to them. I think that's the bulk of it. And I see it as tribalism being the roadblock to it all, with a cycle of strongmen being the result, with a different ideology bolted on. In Egypt you've gone from a authoritarian royal with King Farouk, to an authoritarian dreamer Pan Arabist with Nasser, to Sadat and Muburak. Power, wealth and influence confined to a small group to be distributed to family members, on a handful of prestige projects, and paying of the wages of those with the guns. I don't see these protests changing this. I don't think its a uniquely Arab problem, but it is one that cripples the area.
|
# ¿ Feb 19, 2011 02:53 |
|
Decrepus posted:They are barbaric! I realise it sounds naive, I also know pork projects is a way of life in politics. That said tribal politics in the area is at a different level to other systems. You don't see Obama appointing his entire family to be heads of the Army, Police, different ministrys, and using the secret police to remove anyone who protests.
|
# ¿ Feb 19, 2011 03:00 |
|
MrQwerty posted:Anatolia isn't the Middle East Its an important regional power with a long history in the area.
|
# ¿ Feb 19, 2011 03:01 |
|
Ace Oliveira posted:Is there any chance things will blow up in Syria now that Assad is outright murdering people? This is the same sort of poo poo that happened in Libya back in february. In the past they leveled a town called Hama and killed 20,000 when the Muslim Brotherhood challenged the Syrian government. The government is likely to do everything to keep in power. They're Alawites and a minority in Syria and minority's aren't popular in the Middle East. Going against Israel was their main justification of being in power. If they can't contain the rebellions conventionally, I can see them using chemical weapons.
|
# ¿ Apr 26, 2011 03:56 |
|
I was using a past example that the Syrian government when it feels threatened will go all out to crush all opposition. You're not going to get any civil war where the government divides. You've got the security services made up of one tribal group that has kept its boot firmly on the face of a whole country. It'll be the government against the people. They've already started. http://tinyurl.com/5trc4r2 http://tinyurl.com/3fq9qz9 http://tinyurl.com/6hv42ht BCR fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Apr 26, 2011 |
# ¿ Apr 26, 2011 05:51 |
|
quote:Online from Reuters: quote:Online from Emirates: So, the EU debt crisis combined with no stockpiles, leads to what? I don't think the US is going to step up. So blame game, UN waffling, partition of Libya? Barring him being assassinated, it looks like Gaddafi 'wins' if he holds on for another couple of months.
|
# ¿ Jul 12, 2011 02:40 |
|
I was thinking more of Italy than Norway. http://tinyurl.com/67akxbj http://tinyurl.com/68b5hl5 Their finances are threatening to go down the toilet, and they're bringing a carrier back home to save 80 million. I'll edit this when I find the articles saying how much this was costing the UK and France and their stockpile levels. The point I'd like to make is no stockpile reserves, no money and no US bailout = ?
|
# ¿ Jul 12, 2011 03:20 |
|
I can't get the Caro interviews to load. On the one hand, Caro is a headcase who shouldn't be near anyone medically. On the other, I admire the get and go from a complete random to fly to a warzone and somehow survive it all.
|
# ¿ Feb 1, 2012 15:58 |
|
Brown Moses posted:Have you tried the main site? My bad, its at my end, my internet spazzed out. Reading the third interview. The normal bureaucracy of you can't be here rings true, I just find it hilarious he got adopted by a couple of doctors for whatever reason.
|
# ¿ Feb 1, 2012 16:41 |
|
To me it seems that Syria is playing whack a mole with the insurgents. They can level a town but they can't decisively 'win' like they did with levelling Hama back in the 80s. In my opinion the centers of gravity are the Syrian military, Damascus, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Syrian military is fighting an ethnic war; Alawite vs Sunni. You're not going to see mass defections from the Syrian military because its like asking Nazis to surrender to the Soviets. Even though there's probably only a handful of competent batallions and the rest as conscripted dross, there's been too much blood spilt to make a Syrian Army collapse realistic. Syria is a totalitarian state. Probably any officer showing independence or initiative has already been shot by Assad or is a family crony of whatever competence. The only ones I can see drone killing/ bribing enough Syrian army leaders to make a difference to the rebels would be the Israelis or the Saudis. I can't see the Israelis intervening, and I can't see Saudi escalating that far. I can't see the rebels raising their flag in Damascus. The Alawites can't defeat the Sunnis and vice versa. So stalemate for the time being there. Iran backing Syria because its the only ally they've really had in the Middle East. I think Irans weakness is unlike the Green Revolution, Syria is at the fighting stage and Iran doesn't have the money to prop up another police state. Hamas has left Iran for a Turkish sugar daddy when Irans money dried up and Hezbollahs fighting in Syria because otherwise most of its Iranian supply lines are cut. The wildcard will be how much aid Saudi gives the rebels if any. I can't see the rebels doing anything without external state aid. The West might do it through a Jordanian proxy maybe but I doubt it. Worthy mentions: Turkey I think will throw around its 'we've got a special relationship with these areas, etc' diplomatically but not do anything except against the Syrian Kurds. Israel I think will be very nervous. An Egyptian cold war has gone to a hotter peace with the Arab Spring and more than likely a Syrian Sunni State is not going to be BFF with Israel. And they have Iran playing a part in it. I think they are mainly going to be thinking of direct strikes against Iran rather than another proxy war. The Russians will keep the weapons flow to Alawite's because its in their interests to do so. What do you think?
|
# ¿ Feb 6, 2012 14:01 |
|
Lascivious Sloth posted:I disagree, there have been defections and I think that's how this will be won. The Sunni make up the majority of lower ranks/grunts and the officers are mainly (but not all) Alawi. Where have the defections taken place? My understanding is that its been limited to units that are are on the fringes of the fighting / as far away from Damascus as possible / Army reserves. The Free Syrian Army to me seems to be a a X guys willing to fight, a handful of low ranking officers, an understanding of war propaganda with very limited logistics. No sarcasm, its just what I've picked up from the limited media.
|
# ¿ Feb 6, 2012 14:41 |
|
Well Iran's no longer paying HAMAS' bills so it makes sense for them to go ultra sunni nationalist now.
|
# ¿ Feb 25, 2012 02:31 |
|
Well the theory of clash of civilizations has the Iraq war legacy in Europe and the US. Sunni / Shia warfare isn't an easy soundbite to explain or deal with.
|
# ¿ Feb 26, 2012 05:24 |
|
I don't think China are appalled at civilian deaths, more facepalming with 'Come on guy we crushed Tianemmen in days, you're just crap.'
|
# ¿ Mar 1, 2012 01:51 |
|
I'm just hoping emo look doesn't become the face of the revolution because I want to be a fashionable revolutionary amd death squad balaclavas are sooooo common. Its a shame. I remember a body building gym and boxing gym opening up in Baghdad and you had all these Iraqis posing in front of Arnold Shwarznegger saying at long last we can pound iron and I was all Its the Middle East so I should have expected blood and tears and identity politics to kick back in.
|
# ¿ Mar 11, 2012 01:44 |
|
Saudi isn't going to pay attention to the US on this. Not the best article, Iran and Saudi are in a new great game.
|
# ¿ Mar 31, 2012 03:21 |
|
Brown Moses posted:Caro has a new project for Syria I love how he takes a good idea [use of uavs in riots and monitoring] and then amps it up to 11 with "we're going to Syria bitches!" I am somewhat relieved he's being chaperoned. But that said they could be as crazy as he is.
|
# ¿ Apr 1, 2012 03:32 |
|
Why liberals got it wrong and Islamists obliged Islamists didn't hijack the Egyptian revolution; liberals never had the numbers to carry it off, writes Rahim Elkishky Take it for what its worth from an Egyptian government paper.
|
# ¿ Jun 6, 2012 01:56 |
|
An interesting article I read. I really never put two and two together with the Algerian civil war and returning jihadists from Afghanistan.quote:What the Algerian Attack Was Really about : Algeria
|
# ¿ Jan 26, 2013 03:13 |
|
|
# ¿ May 3, 2024 04:05 |
|
My neighbour, My enemy. Documentary on Allawites vs Sunni sectarian relations in Lebanon.
|
# ¿ Feb 9, 2013 07:33 |