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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Xandu posted:

Terms like jihad are complicated though. There's no good translation that really encapsulates what it means. You could use the term holy war, but there's a lot more to the term than that. And while it technically translates to struggle, that's a bit of simplistic definition as well. It just ends up being easier to keep it as jihad than having to use a very imperfect translation.

Doesn't crusade covers pretty much all the meanings of jihad? It can also mean a holy war, or a (noble) struggle, or a struggle in general.

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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
I heard the Salafists staged a walk out of Egypt's parliament when they held a minutes silence for Pope Shenouda.

What was the given reason for this? Or was it purely just to be dicks and poo poo up the Christians?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Any news of Caro? Is he in Syria yet?

From what I've read from Ghaith Abdul-Ahad for the Guardian and Antony Lloyd for the Times (beind paywall) if he goes to Aleppo he's gonna die. We were all thinking Misrata was Stalingrad v.2 but Aleppo is putting Misrata in the shade in terms of horror.

And since it seems the current Rebel offensive has faltered if not failed, there's no end in sight for poor Aleppo.

I have been reading the twitter feeds of pro-Assad Syrians. Including Allepans. It doesn't dissuade me that the Regime is the party in the wrong, oh no, but it is a reminder that this is indeed an ugly civil war.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Apparently Iraqi Shia militias are fighting for Assad.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-syria-crisis-iraq-militias-idUSBRE89F0PX20121016

quote:

Among them are defectors and former fighters from anti-U.S. Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army, the Iran-backed Badr group and Asaib al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah, militias who once waged a bloody war on American troops, Shi'ite militants and Iraqi politicians say.
...
Some of the Iraqi militants are former Mehdi Army fighters who took refuge in Syria after 2007 when their group was crushed by Iraqi forces. Others, loyal to Khamenei as a religious authority, crossed over recently, fighters and Iraqi politicians say.

"We formed the Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas brigade which includes 500 Iraqi, Syrian and some other nationalities," an Iraqi defector from the Mehdi Army who goes by the name of Abu Hajar told Reuters by satellite telephone from Syria.

"When the fighting erupted in our areas, we carried out some joint military operations side by side with the Syrian army to clean up areas seized by rebels," said Abu Hajar, who like others was a refugee in Syria before the conflict.

This is probably Assad's best hope for victory - whilst his Army is proving somewhat capable at holding large urban areas, it clearly can't overcome an irregular guerilla campaign, and doesn't have the time to adapt and reform. But if he can import enough irregulars of his own...

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Corny posted:

To elaborate on this, Likud (which is by no means anything but right wing) is merging with the Israeli version of Free Republic, in party form.

Netanyahu will at least give occasional nods to the pretty much dead peace process, Lieberman however is a person who has advocated for the transferring of Israeli Arabs to either Jordan or a rump Palestinian state

Oslo is dead. There was a chance that if Lapid and Yachimovich formed a coalition they could have challenged Likud at least and formed a coalition with say, Shas, or something like that, and gotten some sanity going around the Israeli government. No longer.

It's almost 18 years to the day that Yitzhak Rabin died as well, and all he worked for is going to poo poo.

I'm not usually a proponent of 'accelerationist' ideas, but maybe this is for the best. Oslo is a sham, best everyone sees that it has no hope and gives up on another four wasted years of peace talks, indirect talks and so on. A two state solution is effectively dead, let's move on.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Before the Aleppo fighting started he was far more positive about the FSA, and we DM'd with each other last night about what happened, he says they went in as small groups and got their arses kicked by a counterattack and fled. I guess we'll find out if that's true today.

Somebody fucked around with this message at 08:18 on Oct 26, 2012

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Twitter is lighting up with reports of fighting between the FSA and the Kurds in Aleppo, in the wake of Thursday's confusion. Depending on who's doing the telling, either the PYD Kurdish militia invited the FSA into the neighbourhood then stabbed (shot) them in the back, or the Al Nursa front (jihadists) opened fire on a peaceful anti-revolution protest. Either way, this could be bad for the FSA.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Is anyone else thinking that the Syrian Rebels are getting a bit...Animal Farmish a bit early? With the clashes against the Kurds - which include shooting protesters and torturing prisoners to death - and the increasing rise in extremist beliefs amongst the rebels (whether that's from imported fighters or otherwise), and the general rise of shocking secterianism, life in liberated Syria is getting pretty dark.

And from a purely military point, whilst the rebels are certainly on the offensive and it seems the military is worn down and overstretched to the extent they can no longer make strategic offensives, they're still the biggest gang on the block. If the rebels lose the people, can they win? If you were a Christian or a Kurd or an Alawite or a secular middle class Sunni, would you want to be liberated by the opposition as it stands? It could yet take months to take even Aleppo, and it's looking more and more likely there's going to be a civil war within the rebels before that.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jQJ54h5yxZzqsUfKY4ciP3GiWzZA?docId=CNG.c9accd10479c7f940b04021db1933fdd.2b1

quote:

"Usually the rebels search for soldiers, but this time was different. Three gunmen boarded the bus and told the Christians to raise their hands."

Nine Christian men, including seven ethnic Armenians, were ordered off the bus while the gunmen checked IDs, according to Mark, who was mistaken as the driver's assistant and spared interrogation.

"Get off. You're with Bashar too," they told a Kurdish man who tried to intervene, referring to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.

Mark, 26, said that a bearded man wearing a traditional robe boarded the bus and ordered unveiled women to cover their hair, calling them whores.

"He pointed to one woman wearing a cross and told her to hand it over. He grabbed it and started stamping on it."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/01/syria-rebels-fear-foreign-jihadis

quote:

Around the hard-bitten 23-year-old sat three members of a Syrian rebel militia who were acting as his hosts. They looked at the floor as the young jihadi explained Qur'anic teachings that he said were shaping the battle ahead. "I don't care about the future," he said. "I care about today. Muhammad the Messenger said there would be a battle between the Persians and the Sunnis. And it is coming.

"When the regime falls, all those who fought against the Muslims will be my enemy, especially the Shias," he said, reiterating a view held by some Sunni extremists that Shia are their biggest foes.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Paradoxus posted:

Seems like this was kinda poorly planned. No visable ground support and exposing the back of the tank to return fire instead of the more aromored front?

The rebel tank crews are presumably defected soldiers and trained adepts of that classic Syrian Armour theory.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Nov 16, 2012

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

suboptimal posted:

From HamaEcho, one of the best Syrian tweeps out there:


:smith:

What-where -is ghouta, and why is that said with such ominous tones?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
If you're in damascus and bored of the fighting, you can always head to the Christmas village: http://twitter.com/SANA_English/status/281065646513606658/photo/1

Seriously though that sounds like a prime target for Islamist suicide bombers.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Lascivious Sloth posted:

Why? Not only have the suicide bombings in Syria not been aimed at religious targets, but there are Christians celebrating Christmas all over the Middle East, for example in Pakistan; Quetta, Karachi etc. and not being attacked by suicide bombers. It's the Shias who get the brunt of it.

Well, Christian areas have been hit by suicide bombs: http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20523039 , and unlike those other countries this Christmas village (presumably a market really) will be taking place in a well to do area of the capital in the middle of an increasingly secterian civil war.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Still lots of speculation on who was responsible for the blasts at Aleppo university yesterday - given the size of the blasts they were substantial explosives, certainly not homemade rockets (brown Moses has gone into all this on his blog) and so probably a presumably accidental attack by Syrian Air Force jet. No hard proof of that though however.

Interestingly though Martin chulov, the guardian journalist in rebel held Aleppo, is reporting a lot of speculation - amongst rebels - that it was Jabhat al Nursa firing artillery/ heavy rockets from outside the city. (Via the guardian liveblog). That seems very possible given the videos we've seen.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Charliegrs posted:

Theres been speculation that some of the car bombs that went off in heavily secure areas of Damascus (like the intelligence headquarters) were actually planted by the regime in order to paint the rebels as terrorists to the international community. Theres never been proof of this obviously. But if they were willing to do that I dont see why they wouldnt bomb a university in a regime controlled area.

I can believe that the Syrian gov might carry out a false flag attack - but an aerial bombing obviously doesn't work as that as only the government has jets. And if they wanted to intimidate the student body, they could have just gone the tried and tested route of sealing off the campus with the army and sending the Shabiha in. If it was an aerial attack it must have been a mistake.

I don't suppose it'll have much effect on the ground. Unless video comes out of the actual attack both sides will claim their stories as true, the international media have (for good reasons obviously) very much hedged, and in a couple of weeks it'll just be remembered as another bloddy incident in a terrible civil war.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
A fairly worrying report from Rebel held Northern Syria:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/17/syria-crisis-alqaida-fighters-true-colours

quote:

they [al-Nusra] began to reveal themselves," said a senior rebel commander in Aleppo. "The situation is now very clear. They don't want what we want."

Over the past six weeks a once co-operative arrangement between Aleppo's regular Free Syrian Army units and al-Nusra has become one of barely disguised distrust.

A week of interviews with rebel groups in north Syria has revealed a schism developing between the jihadists and residents, which some rebel leaders predict will eventually spark a confrontation between the jihadists and the conservative communities that agreed to host them.

Some already talk of an Iraq-style "awakening" – a time in late-2006 as when communities in the Sunni heartland cities of Fallujah and Ramadi turned on al-Qaida groups in their midst that had tried to impose sharia law and enforce their will through the gun barrel.

"We'll fight them on day two after Assad falls," a commander said. "Until then we will no longer work with them."

quote:

North of Aleppo, in the small forsaken hamlet of Dabek, al-Nusra, fighters had recently paid a visit. Their goal had been to damage a grave that was, in their eyes, too pretentious for Islamic traditions, which specify that all graves, no matter who is buried in them, must be modest.

"They damaged some of the rocks around the grave and they did the same in Azaz [a nearby town]," said the local sheikh. "They are starting to impose themselves and their values."

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Charliegrs posted:

Did those bombs not even explode?

Also I saw a really interesting report on nbcnews.com today. Apparently the regime is starting to train and arm some local militias now?

Going by the other videos those bombs have a long fuse, so the video might have finished before they went off. Or perhaps they were duds.

As far as regime militias, lately there's been a bit of chatter about the 'National Defence Force'.

http://www.france24.com/en/20130121-syria-builds-paramilitary-force-aided-iran-ngo

quote:

AFP - President Bashar al-Assad's regime has put together a new paramilitary force of men and women, some trained by key ally Iran, to fight what is now becoming a guerrilla war, a watchdog said Monday.

The force, dubbed the National Defence Army, gathers together existing popular committees of pro-regime civilian fighters under a new, better-trained and armed hierarchy, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The popular committees were originally formed to protect pro-regime neighbourhoods from rebels.

"The (regular) army is not trained to fight a guerrilla war, so the regime has resorted to creating the National Defence Army," said Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman.

Here's a couple of videos of Women's Militia units from Homs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5k-wIHf2nw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8d4IWc31VY

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

ThePutty posted:

I feel like we don't have enough status updates on who's controlling/attacking what in Syria. Is there somewhere I can get information on that at a regular basis, or is there someone here who can update us on it?

I mainly read the daily guardian Middle East live blogs, and twitter. Plenty of people in Syria tweeting what's going on (or what they believe/wish to be going on), from both sides. Just search twitter for 'Homs', 'idlib', 'Aleppo' etc and see what people are writing.

From what I can tell there's not too much movement. In Damascus the rebels still control several suburbs and are probably slowly expanding, but the gov is hitting back hard. Daraya has been 'cleansed' about a dozen times now, yet Syrian tanks keep mysteriously blowing up there.

Homs seems to be where the regime is focusing. They've brought in reinforcements and are trying hard to take the rebel districts, but as with Damascus they can't seem to achieve a solid victory.

The rebel advance on Hama has run out of steam, or ammunition.

In the north, the rebels have launched a concerted campaign on idlib city. Fierce fighting ongoing as they attempt to take the outlying checkpoints - they've taken the prison and freed several hundred prisoners, but the city in general looks like it will be a tough nut - there are many troops there, and they have nowhere else left to retreat to.

I have no idea what is happening in the east.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
The Syrian army is down with the kids

http://youtu.be/XNE02kHvn_E

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Regarding those foreign weapons to the FSA - The BBC's Foreign editor Jon Williams reports on twitter that:

quote:

Jon Williams ✔ @WilliamsJon

#Jordan's security sources report intense clashes near #Syria border towns. Say regime offensive designed to gain "full control" of border.
7:58 AM - 10 Feb 13


Activist/journalist Luisa Zangh in Homs also reports, again via twitter, that:

quote:

9 Feb Luisa Zangh Luisa Zangh ‏@LuisaZangh
What really stinks about the revolution in #Syria is that someone is clearly tipping off the regime about FSA arms shipments. 1/2

quote:

By someone I'm referring to higher powers that be supplying #Syria regime w exact locations of the arms. And it's not #Russia: hint hint 2/2

quote:

Yesterday 3 large arms shipments were seized by the #Syria regime. They were impossible to track. They were tipped off. Disgusting.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Feb 10, 2013

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Kaal posted:

Well all her allusions aside, no large shipment of weapons is impossible to track. Zangh isn't a journalist, but she should still know better than to start pointing her finger and blaming "higher powers" without evidence.

If someone is tipping off the regime it's surely likeliest to be someone inside the Opposition - it can't be that hard to get moles into one brigade or another, and I'm sure there are plenty of outsight mercenary Syrians willing to give up info for cash.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
A lot of commentry on Twitter (not that we should necessarily trust what is said on twitter, particuarly as a lot is just people - mostly outside Syria - repeating each other, but still...) that Hezbollah has launched a large offensive on FSA held Homs countryside.

Whether that is true or not, Homs does seem to be the one area that the Syrian army is advancing in. @samersniper , an activist in Homs, has become quite despondent in the last few days.



2 hrs ago samer @samersniper posted:


SOME (#FSA leaders) War dealers, the arms suppliers, and the Assad regime are the reason that #Homs will fall!!


Feb 14 samer @samersniper posted:


@ibarb_GT They are still in Old Homs, But we lost Jobar, Sultaniyeh, and Kafraya .. the southern side!!


Feb 13 samer @samersniper posted:


@YallaSouriya Jobar is almost wiped out 1000 FSA fighters (80 martyrs, 350 severely injured, and 250 minor injuries) supply routes was cut!!

mediadave fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Feb 17, 2013

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
You don't have to be a Marxist to think that everything goes back to economics - perhaps the whole Arab spring started due to an increase in food prices. Certainly Syria during the noughties brought in a series of economic reforms that got rid of the old socialist style system, made many Assad cronies very rich and royally screwed over the rural and urban poor.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
An article on the dangers journalists face in Syria, from government and opposition forces by BBC reported Paul Wood:

In Syria, Facing Danger From All Sides
https://www.cpj.org/2013/02/attacks-on-the-press-on-syrias-front-lines.php#more

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Radbot posted:

Uh, did I express surprise that the primitives were using technology? No. I was surprised that they were using a top-of-the-line smartphone in one of the more impoverished places on Earth. Kinda like I'd be surprised seeing a technical made out of a 2012 BMW M5.

One of the more impoverished places on Earth? Syria (pre-crisis) had a pretty well developed economy.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
At least now regime supporters/'anti-imperialists' have an excuse as to why the SAA hasn't won yet.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Sergg posted:

Although I commend you on your solid journalism work, Brown Moses, I also feel compelled to point out that your journalism is severely complicating the issue of arms procurement for the rebels. I mean, the same week your article is published their arms dealer pulls out and joins the embargo. How do you feel about this?

That''s only a concern if you feel BM should be supporting the rebels - both morally and actively - and that would be a dubious and dangerous position for a journalist (or prospective journalist) to take.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Charliegrs posted:

Weapons chat isn't just war porn. There are huge political implications when foreign weapons start flowing into a civil war. It shows who's really pulling the strings in the conflict to some extent. Saying that weapons talk isn't important is like saying that foreign jihadists and Hezbollah/ Iranian revolutionary guard in Syria aren't important either. Also, if you really pay attention to the weapons chat in this forum it seems to mostly concentrate on where the weapons are coming from and who supplied/paid for them. Once people start the 5.56mm vs 7.62mm debate then we have truly descended into childlike war porn but I highly doubt that would ever happen on this forum.

Lordy, can you imagine what this thread would be like in General Bullshit?

"Lol, look at that rebel catapult. So primitive and poorly constructed! And lol at that video of that Mig 29, the Syrians are crazy if they think that's fooling anyone, it's obviously falling apart! Can you imagine what it would be like if those guys went to war with the USA? Our F-22 Raptors would blast those guys out the sky before they even saw them LOLOLO. USA! USA! USA! We're number one! We're number one! we're number....unf...yeah, that was good..."

I think Brown Moses should definitly keep doing his thing, but yeah lets bring a lot more conversation in around it. A video of a Syrian army convoy being IED'd doesn't really tell you much about the actual state of the war, never mind the larger issues of ideology and humanitarian conditions etc.

Have we had any posts about the Harlemn shake protests in Tunisia? I just saw an interesting clip about it on Channel 4 news
just there (UK). Apparently some Tunisian students were doing a harlem shake video like appartently everyone else in the world, some local Salafis did not like this and went in to beat them up...and now its exploded as a protest movement.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/28/harlem-shake-protests-in-tunisia-and-egypt/


About the Syrian war, the war itself is interesting to talk about, but it's clear now its going to go on for a long time. Unless Assad gets plugged, I honestly think he'll be there this time next year. Look at Idlib - that's been largely under rebel control for...8 months? The roads are death traps for Syrian forces. Syrian forces across Idlib have either been defeated or have retreated back into two redoubts, which have been essentially besieged and sparcely supplied for months - Idlib city and the villages around it, and the bases around Maarat Al Numan. Yet those forces still fight and rebel forces still can't seem to take those. If Syrian forces in idlib, abandoned by their comrades, are still fighting on then I don't think a general tipping point will happen soon.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Brown Moses posted:

Really the Aleppo and Idlib regions have been out of the control of the Syrian government for months now, with the opposition laying siege to various bases, and slowly wearing them down. Even if they had a military disaster in those areas at this point they could go back to relying on IEDs to keep back the Syrian army, and with more and more Hip transport helicopters being shot down it'll soon reach a point where they don't have enough to keep the sieged bases supplied, and then there's no hope at all. It's really just a matter of time there, and once they are done there they'll use the same tactics in the rest of the country.

Very likely true - though Assad's forces in the North have been pretty succesful in buying time if nothing else. The situation in Homs seems to have at least for now rebalanced in favour of the govermnment, and while its hard to get too much useable info from activists on the ground, it seems local militias (plus Hezbollah) and perhaps some degree of ethnic cleansing have been behind it. Those militias are now being rolled out throughout the country - ie, I noted some activists (and Assad supporters) talking on twitter about a new local militia in Aleppo. This localisation/balkanisation means perhaps (to my lay-man's eyes) that even if the central government/army command did collapse, the remaining undoubtedly substantial Assad forces would simply and immediately morph into local militias themselves.

Plus, it seems the regime has re-opened a route north:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE92013C20130301

quote:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces seized a village southeast of the city of Aleppo on Friday, reopening a supply line to the country's biggest city where they have been battling rebels for eight months, a monitoring group said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the capture of Tel Shghaib marked the last step to creating a land supply route north into Aleppo from Hama province, crucial for Assad's forces who have lost control of part of the main north-south highway.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
A fairly interesting pro government short 'documentary' on the recent apparently successful Syrian army push north from Hama to Aleppo:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dce_1363860261

Not too much meaty footage though.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Brown Moses posted:

Some very strange footage of the al-Bouti assassination in Damascus, somewhat :nws:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6b1bJzI3Kw

Seems like the guy in black does something to him.

Crazy. He was definitely alive after the explosion, even adjusted his hat...and then who's this guy? oh.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

radical meme posted:

How does an announcement like this help the rebels in any way? This seems like the exact thing that you would never do if you want international support for your cause. There's no way that politicians in foreign countries, especially the U.S., are nuanced enough to make a distinction between rebel forces aligned with AQ and those that aren't.

I strongly suspect that Al Nusra et Al do NOT want foreign (western) aid or interference in Syria.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Apparently The Syrian Army has broken, at least for now, the siege on the large Army bases near Maaret Al Numan on the Damascus-Aleppo highway.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvhl8Q0-WGukpa4MMo7pdXgkTWLQ?docId=CNG.16594a90d40939470576d6a3624c8f8d.5d1

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
The Syrian Army has taken the town of Jdaidet al-Fadl near Damascus. Reports of a massacre - certainly heavy casualties.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22240540

quote:

Both government and rebel sources confirm that Syrian forces have mounted a major offensive against Jdaidet al-Fadl in the past few days. Both sides also say that government forces have won the battle for now.

But that's all they agree on. The state news agency says simply that the army inflicted heavy losses upon "terrorists" - its standard description of all rebel fighters. But opposition sources say women and children were killed, too.

One source says dozens of people were killed over several days. Another, the Local Co-ordination Committees (LCC), paints an even worse picture - claiming that Syrian forces committed a massacre after retaking the town.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
The problem is that winning the war for the rebels doesn't do anything about the nature of the rebels themselves. They're still riven with political divisions, the SNC is near collapse, the secular units are weak and in no position to assert themselves, the most powerful units are islamist or outright jihadist, not to mention in the case of Al Nusra, openly Al Qaeda. And there is genuine (understandable though obviously not condonable) hatred against the Alawites if Assad goes. If you break it you own it - if Obama bombs Assad and the aftermath is a sectarian bloodbath with massive ethnic cleansing and islamist forces coming out on top (the muslim brotherhood is by far the strongest 'regular' political force in the Syrian opposition) and entrenched jihadist groups using Syria as a base to attack Lebanon/Jordan/Israel etc then, well, America owns that mess. Sorry.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

New Division posted:

Actually, the most likely target for jihadist groups after the fall of Assad is to move onto Iraq and try to overthrow Malaki's government.

That would be quite an irony.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Volkerball posted:

Wow, this thread really took a turn towards weird hypotheticals and :speculate:.


Most of these questions are worth asking, but Alex Thomson sounds insufferable. Even if there was no chemical attack, there's still somewhere in the neighborhood of 100k dead as a result of this conflict. It's not like intervention is completely unjustifiable if chemical weapons attacks didn't happen, and is justifiable if there was. If you're going to write an article about an alleged "war crime" in Syria, keep it in context with the fact that you can find verifiable instances of 20 others before lunch.

I dunno, I disagree. If you're going to get involved in someone else's war where there are no realistically good forseeable outcomes, you drat better be sure you're not being led up the garden path.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
IMO there hasn't been enough push for a negotiated settlement. For all their bluster the regime must be willing to go for a face-saving settlement, certainly their Russian backers would go for that if their interests were met. They could push Assad to the table, and the West could push what remains of the SNC to the table.

So have a highly chaperoned process where the boundaries are largely set beforehand. Guarantee the Russians their navy base etc. Guarantee a secular, democratic system. That'll give the regime their out. Sure, the more religious of the opposition won't like that, but frankly, gently caress those particular guys. Ten thousand people a month or more are dying.

Sure, it's an unreasonable interference in another countries affairs, but it's an interference that will save a lot of lives and give the best chance for a sustainable future than any other sort of interference I can see.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Volkerball posted:

It's the standard leftist default position as soon as any talk of any sort of intervention comes up regardless of context. It doesn't matter that the international community has done literally nothing except sanction and condemn for 2 years while bakeries and hospitals have been specifically targeted with massive airstrikes.

Oh come on, you know this isn't true. The West is heavily involved with training the opposition, providing them with secure bases to operate from in Turkey and Jordan, arming them with advanced weaponry and more likely than not providing 'advisors' on the ground.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Volkerball posted:


I sure don't mediadave. Turkey and Jordan have received insane amounts of refugees that is putting a strain on their countries, and both have far more at risk with Assad still running around next door than the West. They have a lot more vested in the outcome of this war than anyone else outside of Syria. All I know is that we have given a little over $200 mil in aid, that we provided equipment which allowed the opposition to circumvent Assad's attempt to shut down the internet, and that we are helping them with logistics.


Well, Turkey is part of the West so its a bit of a non-sequiter to say Turkey is aiding the rebels but the West isn't. Plus anything Erdogan is doing for the rebels is done in concert with other Western powers, same with King Abdullah.

Turkey of course has been a heavy and open supporter of the Syrian opposition since near the beginning:

Syrian rebels say Turkey is arming and training them
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/michaelweiss/100159613/syrian-rebels-say-turkey-is-arming-and-training-them/



Brown Moses has done enough work I think on the Croatian arms provision to 'prove' Western arms supply to the rebels. This isn't recent however, it was certainly going on even quite early last year.

C.I.A. Said to Aid in Steering Arms to Syrian Opposition
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/world/middleeast/cia-said-to-aid-in-steering-arms-to-syrian-rebels.html


As for training - The Americans are now almost openly doing this in Jordan. There have been plenty of recent articles on this, and again our own investigative journalist Brown Moses has looked into this.

US training Syrian opposition forces in Jordan for months, sources say
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/03/25/us-training-syrian-opposition-forces-in-jordan-for-months-sources-say/#ixzz2RnSzlLfr

U.S. military to step up presence in Jordan in light of Syria civil war
http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/17/world/us-jordan-troops-order

US troops operating in Jordan near Syria border
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9598851/US-troops-operating-in-Jordan-near-Syria-border.html

Covert help for Syria's rebels in Jordan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22285555


Now you can make the argument that the West isn't doing enough militarily, but that's a different argument.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Apr 28, 2013

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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
A large post on Joshualandis.com on events in the east of Syria, in which Al-Nusra act like dicks, blow up houses, and are apparently palling around with a group calling itself the Syrian Taliban:

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/oil-wars-nusras-expanding-reach-syrian-taliban/

quote:

The next footage we have is of al-Nusra’s attack on the village. They actually film their convoy setting out on the offensive, camera positioned at a series of road curves, apparently to accentuate the vehicles’ performance and evoke a sense of the heroic, set to one of the stirring jihadi anthems typical for such videos. After this sequence, we see the fighters holding blind-folded prisoners inside the village. But Nusra’s revenge is exacted on more than individuals: at just before 3:00 into the video we see the beginning of their demolition campaign, in which explosives are used to destroy homes. We see a total of 12 houses blown up in the remainder of the video, followed by footage of the aftermath, eerily resembling similar scenes in villages bombed by the regime. Narration informs us that one of the houses had belonged to the son of the mukhtar (mayor).
...
Another video shows the fighters herding the prisoners which the video description refers to as the “killers of Qasura.” As the Nusra fighter is marching the prisoners along he introduces those conducting the operation as “the champions of al-Nusra and the Syrian Taliban movement.” This reference to the “Syrian Taliban” generated confused responses on the part of those commenting on YouTube, upon which the uploader posted a comment in reply saying that the fighter was merely “speaking spontaneously.” We do not see the final fate of the prisoners.
...
Though the above al-Nusra source attempts to downplay the mentioning of a group calling themselves the “Taliban,” it is now clear that there is a group operating within Syria, claiming to be the Taliban. We have found three videos in each of which the use of this name by the rebel group is self-declared. It is also clear that this group participated with Jabhat al-Nusra in the campaign on al-Musareb.

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