Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Admittedly, I'm a bit ignorant about the power balance issues in the Middle East, but could anyone please help me answer this question: What do UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia gain from sponsoring the FSA? Do they plan to install a friendly regime once Assad is out? Also, isn't their support for armed uprising against a despotic regime in a nearby country setting up a dangerous precedent for when their own time on the chopping block comes?

# ¿ Jul 23, 2012 11:11

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# ¿ May 5, 2024 17:08

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Namarrgon posted:

Yeah I can answer that one; in Europe nobody gives a gently caress about Hezbollah except for lip service.

Actually, this brings up a doubt I've had for a while: what does Europe have to gain from toppling Assad? Is it about screwing with Iran or the Russians?

If anything, I've come to realize that none of the powers outside of Syria actually give a gently caress about stopping the violence or the well being of Syrians. It's all about pushing their interests and scoring points in the new version of The Great Game.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 17:40

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

CeeJee posted:

In Afghanistan the Stingers were a very big change to the balance of power while I can't see anything being shipped to Syria they don't already have. The only thing it will change is creating headlines 'US weapons create carnage in Syria'.

...and not only in Syria. That's the issue with arming independent groups with radically different goals and ideologies(including jihadists), it will only be a matter of time until these weapons are used on other targets, including Western ones.

I'm wondering if Israel will attempt to prevent this to any degree, isn't it in their interests to not have heavily armed independent militias (who hate then just as much as Assad) in a neighboring county?

# ¿ Jun 14, 2013 10:26

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Does the situation in Egypt have the potential to escalate to a Syria level clusterfuck?

I'm guessing NOT, since I don't see anyone propping up a rebellion with arms imports like the gulf states and US have done in Syria. Then again, maybe the jihadists would be willing to open another front?

# ¿ Aug 14, 2013 12:20

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

If this disarmament proposal actually leads to something, the biggest winner would probably be Israel. They kept a low profile, risked no political capital and would greatly diminish the risk of getting gassed by whoever ends up running Syria in the future.

# ¿ Sep 10, 2013 10:44

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Middle East Thread of Despair: Here comes a new challenger!

Most likely the Russians won't actually throw lives into this (those are already tied up in Ukraine) but invest enough materiel in bombing runs to ensure that Assad and in lesser degree Iran have a stronger hand.

If you are particularly cynical, you might even believe that by shaking up the beehive in the middle east Putin expect oil prices to go up a bit and thus have a positive ROI on his bombs.

# ¿ Sep 30, 2015 16:07

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Anyone knows if the latest of Russian armaments are being used in Syria, or are they just clearing out their 80s-90s legacy inventory?

Freezer fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Oct 1, 2015

# ¿ Oct 1, 2015 16:12

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Frosted Flake posted:

Any advanced weapons the US gives to the "good" rebels will inevitably fall into the hands of ISIS, the "bad" rebels or Assad. Didn't most of the US trained rebels run away?

Loose stingers in an area with uncontrolled borders is a security nightmare. How long until US aircraft or civilian airliners end up being at risk?

This. It has happened time and time again. Any AA weapons provided to the FSA will inevitably be used again US, French, Jordanian or Turkish aircraft down the road. It's a very bad idea.

# ¿ Oct 2, 2015 15:53

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Anyone got a map of where were SAA advances launched?

# ¿ Oct 7, 2015 22:24

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Who supplied those TOWs? Saudi Arabia?

# ¿ Oct 8, 2015 00:41

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

Is it wrong that i am happy that assad and putin are pissing away men and weapons for little gain.

It is a bit gauche, yeah. In the same way as cheering when a Russian airstrike hits some rebels is. Or celebrating when some roadside bomb took out an American hum vee was.

A bunch of people dying for the stupidest of reasons without any sense or purpose shouldn't be celebrated imo.

# ¿ Oct 8, 2015 02:14

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Dandywalken posted:

Maybe they over-estimated the Russian's contribution, or expected even more than they were provided?

Shame we cant see the OOB's, but meh.

That sounds like the most likely reason. That or sacrificing a few tanks to be able to pinpoint enemy locations for the Russians to pound hard? I guess we'll see in the next few days how this develops.

# ¿ Oct 8, 2015 03:11

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

pointsofdata posted:

Tbh beheading sounds pretty old-fashioned, hopefully the civil service will be able to implement a swifter, more efficient solution to the problem of executing people.

It's pretty humane when you put it into the context of the Middle East going through their own Middle Ages as someone mentioned before. He could be getting drawn and quartered like William Wallace.

# ¿ Oct 9, 2015 10:25

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

If the Ukraine strategy is applied, once one of those Russian choppers gets shot down we'll find out it was a Syrian chopper all along!

# ¿ Oct 9, 2015 13:41

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Quite probably false.

But when you think about it, those fresh Saudi and American weapons and hardware will be certainly coming in via Turkey, and it would be positive from a Russian perspective to track them and interdict right as they cross the border into Syria.

# ¿ Oct 9, 2015 23:27

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

farraday posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t69eqVfMYDk

This seems new.

Massive MLRS strikes? cluster munitions? Not sure but that town just got leveled.

So...who's of the receiving end of this fireworks display? It goes on for quite a bit too...

# ¿ Oct 10, 2015 22:05

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

OctaMurk posted:

The forces of democracy

Yeah, let's not get over-excited about how much actual democracy is desired by several of those groups.

# ¿ Oct 12, 2015 04:53

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Oil futures are up 10% from the date that Russia started bombing. Even if only a small fraction of that rise is due to 'heigtened tensions in the middle east', it seems like Russia's operation is paying for itself.

# ¿ Oct 12, 2015 16:44

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Pimpmust posted:

*Well okay 50 tons of skateboards might be less useful, but on the other hand much more radical.

We wouldn't want them to become more...radical. :rimshot:

# ¿ Oct 12, 2015 21:00

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

fade5 posted:

Depending on your definition of "proxy war", 10/10 for the first and 0 out of 10 for the second.

By going full hog behind the YPG/SDF/whatever the gently caress you call them, the US has drawn it's "do not cross" line in the sand, and so Russia and the US are gonna sit on opposite sides and back our respective groups. Technically that's already a proxy war, but there shouldn't really be any clashes between Russia-backed forces and US-backed YPG/SDF forces, so

And no, we are not starting a shooting war with Russia, hence why the US is backing the Kurds, who Russia is okay with.

This. Russia isn't in a proxy war with US, and their short term interests rather align as far as reducing ISIS goes. They are, however, in a proxy war with Saudi Arabia, Quatar, Turkey and a hodgepodge of Islamic supporters.

# ¿ Oct 13, 2015 03:48

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

They have tried taking occupied parts of Aleppo in the past with little success. I doubt they can do it now, unless it gets bombed to smithereens beforehand (even more than it already is).

Speaking of which, is the Russian improvised airbase big enough to operate larger bombers, such as the TU-95?

# ¿ Oct 13, 2015 23:06

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Vladimir Putin posted:

It's going to be super awkward when we shovel more and more money into killing them and then we pretend we have this great deal going on that's going to help them stop being an international pariah.

As of yet US armed Kurdish groups are not actively picking up fights with the SAA/Iran coalition, as both have bigger threats to handle. It will happen tough, sooner or later.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2015 04:15

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Rukeli posted:

Syria is hosed right now, that's for sure, but we don't know yet where it will land.

By current trends it will land in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Greece, Hungary, Austria, Germany, etc.

Because fundamentally what make a nation state is land and people, and people have been leaving.

# ¿ Oct 14, 2015 20:33

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

The ISIS grand blueprint does not limit itself to Syria. It extends in all directions, even as far as Israel (lol). As to the people under their rule, generally poo poo lige if you're a sunni Muslim, and death/slavery if you're an infidel.

# ¿ Oct 17, 2015 06:24

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Volkerball posted:

Heh. Just saw it pointed out on twitter that Russia managed to kill more civilians in just a few days than the US did in 8 months during the intervention in Libya.

I'm sure they'll just borrow a page from the US playbook and label all the dead as enemy combatants.

# ¿ Oct 17, 2015 21:25

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

If we do see Saudi and Quatari SAMs shooting down Russian aircraft, what's the most probable way a pissed off and trollish Putin will respond?

# ¿ Oct 19, 2015 15:54

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

farraday posted:

Should be interesting to find out more about this raid.

As Mothra mentioned JaF have launched an offensive in eastern Hama. Initial impressions are that it is aimed partialyl at gains the regime has made recently but also further east where they're looking to move into territory they haven't held since maybe 2013.. Kind of sketchy on past history of control of this particular area. In any case the attack was launched toward the evening and with the normal amount of Twitter claims and official silence from the rebels it is unclear what, if anything, has been accomplished so far. Tomorrow should give us a better idea of what has happened and if the rebels have developed or received any response to Russian attack helicopters.

What we can say with some certainty at this point is that despite repeated claims over the past few days of a Rebel attack being imminient, the exact location appears to ahve been enough of a surprise for the rebels to engage in a close assault without the Russians preemptively bombing their staging area.

Tomorrow should also give us some information on the physical limits of Russian airpower as they will likely respond to this attack while simultaneously being responsible for support along the other fronts where the regime has launched attacks. Very much a zero sum game for them on the split of air support to various fronts, but with the closing of the airport they're operating from to civilians, it should indicate how many sorties they're capable of running at this particular moment.

Thanks for these posts, as it's hard to distinguish what is happening amongst the noise.

# ¿ Oct 23, 2015 01:58

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

I'm seeing the 200 children executed story surface in more places. Is it confirmed to be fake?

# ¿ Nov 10, 2015 23:46

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Deteriorata posted:

The Republican party has not been on speaking terms with reality for some time now. They just throw out bumper-sticker quality sound bites as policy positions, and last night's debate encouraged fact-free blathering. It doesn't mean anything other than "don't vote for Republicans."

A good portion of the electorate is not in speaking terms with reality either... This election is far from a foregone conclusion and that scares me.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2015 16:15

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Given the fate of the soldiers captured last time ISIS took an airbase, I would expect any defenders to fight to the last man rather than surrender. Because gently caress ISIS.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2015 18:21

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

sparatuvs posted:

Blame Putin. He used those pilots lives to antagonize Turkey.

I'm pretty sure this wasn't planned or desired by the Russians. They have nothing to gain out of this development unless you go into 10th dimension chess realm.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2015 16:10

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

What's the range of the SAM systems on that new cruiser that Russia is sending to Latakia, does it reach into the border or beyond?

I could imagine a passive-agressive move worthy of Putin would be having the cruiser radar-lock troll any turkish aircraft on both sides of the border.

# ¿ Nov 25, 2015 15:56

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

az posted:

Anti ATGM systems overview.

Thanks for posting this, as an engineer I find it really intriguing.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2015 00:27

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Hope the broomsticks get a new coat of paint, gotta get ready for the cameras.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2015 17:17

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Doctor Malaver posted:

Motion to rename the thread from Despair to Very Cautious Optimism.

Let's not get crazy here, despair sounds about right.

# ¿ Dec 3, 2015 14:21

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

az posted:

edit: The Luftwaffe is run by utter nimrods and they are where our military funds go to die.

Judging by the info being posted on the F35 thread, this is probably the norm more than the exception.

# ¿ Dec 3, 2015 20:54

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Maarek posted:

I guess that thing about sovereignty and the inviolability of borders is more of a guideline than a rule for Turkey.

Except, you know, when a russian warplane beaches their borders for 16 seconds.

By their own rethoric, the Iraqui government would be totally justified in bombing them.

# ¿ Dec 8, 2015 23:32

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

fade5 posted:

It's kind of amazing how this happens, ISIL generally focuses on the weakest front to do the bulk of their fighting. Originally that was the Kurdish front with Kobani and Kobani canton, then once the Kurds started kicking their rear end it became the SAA and Palmyra specifically. Once Palmyra fell ISIL started going after the rebels in the area north of Aleppo, and pushing on the SAA in Hasakah. Now that ISIL has been beaten back in Hasakah and getting their asses kicked in the North Aleppo area, they're refocusing on Deir Ez-Zor.

Also Russia has apparently been dropping aid to Deir Ez-Zor, and we're now in the strange situation where I'm hoping Assad's forces can hang on to Deir Ez-Zor. Time to put that Russian aid to actual use Assad, you barrel bomb dropping rear end in a top hat.

Are the Russians still bombing someone? it seems to have dropped off the news entirely for the past weeks.

# ¿ Jan 16, 2016 22:15

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Well, if anything, taking on a SU-34 with F-16s is trickier than shooting down a SU-24.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 00:05

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# ¿ May 5, 2024 17:08

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

15k people fleeing Aleppo reported at the Turkish border. I bet smugglers are thinking 'Payday!'.

# ¿ Feb 5, 2016 18:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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