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IIRC, The in depth article about the besieged airbase from a while back mentioned that early on ISIS suffered enormous casualties from artillery and air strikes during battles because members were live-tweeting and live-photoblogging their positions and what they were doing. ISIS has long since ordered a halt to this practice, but i imagine useful information still pops up once in a while. I also imagine there is a honeypot effect. Anyone following ISIS twitter accounts is probably on some NSA watchlist for heightened scrutiny. I suppose the theory is its better to know who's following ISIS than have less people following ISIS.
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Nov 17, 2015 21:28
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i read/skimmed the whole thing, the author laid out a lot of points demonstrating they are paying attention to things - but ultimately that made the argument for intervention feel weaker, since its relatively short and tacked on at the end. there was no even slightly detailed case for how such an intervention might be accomplished. would the West attack through the (pro-IS) Turkey? Base with Assad? Fly literally everything into Kurdistan? Base out of Iraq? There don't seem to be any actual good options for creating a logistical chain for even a brief offensive. Creation of an even quasi secure corridor would take far more troops that probably would even be needed to fight ISIS. Additionally, the attitude towards casualties was pretty much "I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed..." a lot of the points and links from this thread ran through my head when reading that, like the hostility of many Shia militias and some of ISIS's apocalyptic rhetoric; would the more hardcore ISIS supporters flinch at creating massive booby traps and holding tens of thousands hostage, when pushed to the brink? I don't think they would. I think it could get VERY ugly and would be extremely easy to mishandle. IMO, gradual loss of territory from continuous military defeat by peer organizations is much more likely to cause ISIS to just melt away without an apocalyptic confrontation, or at least not as big of one. *shrug* i don't think the US is capable of mounting a swift enough offensive to destroy ISIS before they get ugly, it's just too difficult and ISIS would have too much warning. what are we going to do, paradrop the 82nd Airborne?
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Nov 21, 2015 09:34
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ISIS Women and Enforcers in Syria Recount Collaboration, Anguish and Escapequote:SOUTHERN TURKEY — Dua had only been working for two months with the Khansaa Brigade, the all-female morality police of the Islamic State, when her friends were brought to the station to be whipped. an all female police force? How progressive quote:Aws, 25, a former resident of Raqqa, Syria, used to be a member of the Khansaa Brigade, the Islamic State's female morality police. Her first husband was a jihadist, and when he died in a suicide operation she reluctantly agreed to marry another fighter. 
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Nov 24, 2015 08:00
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wow. i guess turkey was looking for an excuse pretty hardcore; im not sure how big that protrusion is, but the Russian plane couldn't have been in Turkish airspace more than a few minutes...
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Nov 24, 2015 11:32
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quote:I wasn't replying to you, but some people here say it's no big deal or saying that Putin had it coming. quote:“Nato has issued a stern ultimatum,” Erdoğan was quoted as saying at a press conference in Brussels by local media. “We cannot endure it. Some steps that we do not desire are being taken. It is not suitable for Turkey to accept them. This is also beyond the principles of Nato.”
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Nov 24, 2015 20:07
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is there some disputed airspace for greece<-> Turkey? Those numbers are absurdly high. fake edit: looks like current 'agreed' airspace is 6 nautical miles from land but Greece claims 10 nautical miles from land. I'd wager most (all?) of those violations fall in the 6-10 band.
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Nov 24, 2015 20:40
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it's authoritarian macho posturing vs authoritarian macho posturing. Noone wins. it boggles my mind that Russia would keep up this provocation nonsense while they were about start bombing Syria, though.
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Nov 24, 2015 21:15
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is that a new jet explosion, or the US stance on the earlier one? life sure is confusing with all these exploding planes.
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Nov 25, 2015 02:15
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shooting a helpless pilot is sickening, but so is bombing helpless people on the ground; i cant see any moral math where the pilot's death is worse than the bombing campaigns.
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Nov 28, 2015 19:30
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i get the impression that once the top oligarch secures his grip on power (Putin), the other oligarchs need him more than he needs them. not sure if that is the case for Erdogan, but it's kind of a fait accompli; the jet is shot down, Russia's making GBS threads on Turkey as best it can, and even if it turns some oligarchs against Erdogan, well suddenly those guys have a lot less money now :p
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Nov 28, 2015 21:06
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:| despite being a serious incident this hardly warrants flippant commentary about military coups....
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Nov 29, 2015 03:58
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russia actually has some pretty good airplanes, if they sent a fighter after a random US strike package they would probably shoot it down. If they could get to it. Not sure about that given the weird airspace timesharing thing going on
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Nov 29, 2015 04:40
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i think the primary parallel is the hefty involvement of outside fighters. but other than that there's too many differences to justify calling them similar. Spain was generally two sided (loyalist/junta); Syria is n-sided. Spain never had an ISIS-parallel entity. The dictator was already in charge in Syria. I guess they both have Germans dropping bombs ~~
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Dec 5, 2015 01:37
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i for one would like to hear how Iraq is Israel's fault 
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Dec 5, 2015 03:52
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How do you reconcile the long-term problems caused by Sykes-Picot with the thesis that the creation of Israel is the cause of the 'destruction' of the Middle East?
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Dec 5, 2015 09:08
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which is terrible, but ultimately conscripts do have the option to run away. they are adults they can make choices. edit: I assume they are adults, just young. it's not a choice i ever want to have to make, but iirc in the usa threats of future reprisal are not sufficient coercion to justify committing a crime and i agree with that principle.
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Dec 8, 2015 09:06
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i feel bad for people who got conscripted. but if you are carrying a gun, and (thusly) you are killing undeserving people in the service of assholes, i'm not going to get exercised that you died in the process. big difference between being conscripted to dig a ditch or drive a truck and being a soldier. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 12:24
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quote:That sounds really unfair and bullshit to be honest, you're declaring this in a vacuum with no nuance in circumstance or geography. Lots n lots n lots of people have fled ISIL so it's not exactly a 1:1 'I have to kill those guys or my family dies!' thing. if we want to pose it as a moral exercise, if some guy had his family kidnapped and was watching them be threatend with a gun 24/7 over the webbernets, how many people would you excuse that guy killing before you lose sympathy for him? quote:Innocent people die if they refuse to cooperate as well, innocent people much emotionally closer to the conscript. You're asking emotionless ideological infallibility from a powerless individual who is placed under emotional duress, and taking an empty action that results in nothing. Sure glad you're okay with brown people dying for your exacting ideological and ethical standards, you might have to feel an ounce of sympathy otherwise. But my sympathy does runs dry when a 'powerless individual' starts killing other people.
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Dec 8, 2015 12:39
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RE: the lob bomb thing. I was talking with a ex-military friend the other day and when we were discussing whether the C-RAM system ever actually worked he mentioned that the 'lob bombs' were used because they kept rocket trajectories too low for the radars or to shoot. He didn't use that word but 'propane tanks attached to rockets' seems correct.
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Dec 14, 2015 20:56
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Tits, violence, and empty chairs Sounds like fun
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Dec 16, 2015 12:33
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The Syrian military and alawites have every reason to fight Isis with or without Assad.
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Dec 23, 2015 07:42
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CommieGIR posted:I mean, let's assume they gain some semblance of stability (they won't): Their primary money maker is oil. You need chemistry knowledge to manufacture oil. They've banned the teaching of chemistry. Oil companies: well known not taking contract jobs with awful governments. You don't need many people who stone cold don't care about anything but a huge payday to get the job done. If ISIS actually lasts for 5-10 years, and the oil fields arn't being actively bombed, they could get expertise.
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Dec 28, 2015 16:58
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To me, it seems more like infighting over who specifically gets control than any conflict of ideology or practical governance.
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Jan 10, 2016 09:34
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quote:GOP presidential candidate Jeb Bush was among the first to attack Obama for appearing weak in front of Iran, which has been at odds with the U.S. over a delicate nuclear deal that was finally reached last year. Does anyone know what 'strength' would be in this situation? I guess it's that if everyone believes you are an insane rear end in a top hat who will nuke things with no basis whatsoever, they wouldn't have dared to investigate boats in their own territorial waters. I sure hope those boat guys tossed their communications gear overboard or they're in deep poo poo, lol
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Jan 13, 2016 01:24
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-Troika- posted:The only correct reponse for this situation should be "give all of our sailors back right now or we start making things with Iranian flags on them explode". Not waffling and hoping the Iranians give them back. Christ what a useless government we have right now. why jump to needless belligerence when Iran's already going to give them back?
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Jan 13, 2016 04:21
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quote:Americans not siding with Obama on Russia: Analyst
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Jan 13, 2016 23:26
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fascinating article about Caro. I knew very little of this story beforehand. it would be hilarious if it wernt so weird and sad. Merde, as it were.
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Jan 16, 2016 19:53
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Invasion by liberal aliens.
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Jan 22, 2016 02:57
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Because [GAS]. It's the reason. Let's not pretend it doesnt exist.
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Jan 28, 2016 17:14
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"Providing aid for security" has nominally been the US strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan for years and it doesn't really seem to be doing much.
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Feb 10, 2016 05:30
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the saudis dumped the oil price, destroying russia's economy
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Feb 11, 2016 22:37
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gay picnic defence posted:Would there be anything stopping Russia from bombing any Saudi forces deployed to Syria? a desire for oil prices to ever increase again?
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Feb 12, 2016 03:47
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there's 2 aspects to the american military that most other militaries dont have 1.) power projection, which it does better than anyone else. Generally if its not easy for your military to reach somewhere with trucks, you can't do much without American assistance. 2.) ordnance stockpile and production, which i imagine is what Zimbardo is referring to - since 1.) doesnt apply to any of the belligerents. However, without actual knowledge of a particular nations ammunition stockpiles vers what they are using, there's no way to make a remotely definitive statement as to how long a nation can keep up a particular level of military action. For all I know turkey has 2 years of artillery ammo.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:27
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quote:Considering the date, two days off from the 17th anniversary of Ocalan's arrest Waiting for any actual evidence it was the PKK. 'Initial signs' doesnt mean much without a claim of responsibility.
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Feb 17, 2016 20:40
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What's a Bazaari? My brain keeps toggling between BIZZARROOO and guys who just looooove marketplaces.
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Feb 28, 2016 17:05
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edit: wrong thred
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Feb 29, 2016 08:31
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It should be noted that there's all sorts of anti-islam masturbatory fantasies in the right-wing sci-fi military fiction genre, although never having read any of them I cant say how specifically bigoted they get. Lots of evil Caliphates, though. Never heard of those actually being a problem for the author.
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Mar 3, 2016 01:58
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what's a few cities between friends?
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Mar 4, 2016 18:28
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It's succession crisis. No clear successor to the current leader, no announced heir, supposedly there's envelopes containing handpicked choices but there may be more than one name written down and more than one envelope. ~Hurray for eliminating anyone who can threaten your base of power, hurray for monarchy~
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Mar 6, 2016 00:13
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Thanks ISIS for making Assad look like the better of *any* spectrum of options. Just another of the wonderful things they've brought us.
TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 05:23 on Mar 9, 2016 |
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Mar 9, 2016 05:19
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