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fade5 posted:You're welcome, glad to know people appreciate them. Are there Saudi boots in Yemen or just air strikes?
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Feb 14, 2016 19:24
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What specific opposition group are the Kurds fighting here?
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Feb 15, 2016 00:32
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Assuming this is all really happening, it seems like the factions in this war are consolidating into SDF/Syria/Russia/Iran and Turkey/Arab States/FSA/Nusra? with ISIS continuing to be against all, but with the former alliance more opposed to it than the latter. Where will the US/Europe go? Our main target is ISIS, but Turkey, which seems to care a lot more about killing Kurds than ISIS, is our NATO ally.
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Feb 15, 2016 03:00
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Charliegrs posted:Holy crap get a load of this pic of the Assad family from before the war In an alternate universe, Bashar is still an opthamologist in the UK.
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Feb 16, 2016 07:12
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fade5 posted:
What flavor of rebels? If it's Nusra, I think we can expect this possible US/Turkey rift to grow.
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Feb 18, 2016 22:37
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Count Roland posted:I don't like the whole WW3 bit, because it suggests Total War on a global scale. Since we have nuclear weapons, this seems to be the same thing as nuclear annihilation. Which I don't think (hopefully!) will happen. It certainly seems like things are coming to a head to create WW1-esque crisis that wraps up a whole lot of festering issues into one gigantic calamity - namely, the various Arab Winter civil wars, inclusive of Syria; Sunni/Shiite; Iran/Saudi; ISIS; "Radical Islamic Terrorism" in general; Iran/Israel; I/P; Turkey/Kurd; and now most ominously, NATO/Russia. Then again, tensions could cool again for months or even years, and the situation calcifies into a stalemate before the next catalyst blows it up again. That's certainly been the I/P story for decades now.
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Feb 19, 2016 20:11
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fade5 posted:Welp, so much for that. How much fighting do you think is going on between the Rebels and ISIS on that short little front they now have with each other? Would it be fair to say there's now something of a tacit alliance between Rebels/ISIS and SDF/SAA? Are there any moderate rebels left that are not now in the SDF? Also, thanks for your great posts, fade5.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:14
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Can't ever have anything go right in the Middle East, that just doesn't happen.
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Any thoughts on how the attempted coup, purge, and likely creeping authoritarianism in Turkey is going to affect the Syrian Civil War? I'm guessing that none of this is going to exactly smooth things over with the Kurds.
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Jul 16, 2016 16:48
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fade5 posted:News, Raqqa is apparently planned to happen sooner rather than later: Ash Carter is talking like he's personally in command of the YPG. Which doesn't make any sense, but I guess that explains why Erdogan is so bitchy. Speaking of which, how is Turkey going to react when the Kurds conquer the ISIS capital and thus, a whole lot more territory in Syria? (assuming success)
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Oct 27, 2016 07:09
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https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201702101050525765-turkey-satisfied-russia-incident/ Russia and Turkey seem to be bound and determined to not gently caress up carving up Syria. Because that's what this is starting to look like. And it really makes a kind of surreal pall over the new nature of this war - Syria, the FSA, and the Kurds all kind of having a detente with each other while they jointly fight ISIS, while the radical rebels fight amongst themselves in their Idlib Bantuland. Who knows if it'll hold once ISIS is gone, of course.
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Feb 10, 2017 05:57
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Willie Tomg posted:Whats Qatar's ultimate motivation to play ball with the Saudis here? They've cut air and land connections. If Qatar wants to still hold the World Cup, and more importantly, to eat, they'll have no choice but to acquiesce.
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Jun 5, 2017 19:45
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MrNemo posted:This absolutely is a consequence of lack of US involvement in the region. Much like Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, it seems pretty likely this was triggered by a US suggestion they wouldn't get involved (totally speculation on my part based on the timing but I cannot imagine Trump being told KSA wanted to deal with Qatari funding of terrorists and went 'we're troubled by the rise of extremism in the region and would certainly encourage trilateral talks but the US will absolutely not tolerate an escalation of tensions in the Gulf region'. You know he went 'absolutely, we hate those guys too. You need to defend your country, we're with you!' without for a second considering what that might mean). This is because the administration doesn't give a poo poo, the State department is without direction and the IC is probably more concerned with Russia and Syria. Possibly no one is pushing reports that might have signalled this brewing and certainly no one was asking for or willing to read them. US diplomacy is troubling and poo poo like Iraq 2.0 was horrible but if you want a clear picture of the US just withdrawing from the world stage I think we're getting a glimpse of that future. Next up Iran sends troops into Syria to secure its border (actually the US might actually do poo poo about that since Iran is a 'bad guy'. Maybe Erdogan genocides some Kurds?) That's definitely what this administration feels like - the beginning of a death spiral for US imperialism. Maybe one good thing to come out of it, though it portends chaos for the near term. I'd say up next is the Saudi-Iran cold war goes hot. It really seems like only a matter of time now.
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Jun 6, 2017 01:13
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My guess is that the Saudi endgame is to induce a coup. Does the current emir have any ambitious cousins?
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Jun 7, 2017 05:01
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Brother Friendship posted:I don't think that the SDF clashes with the regime are anything out of the ordinary when you consider what happened with the TFSA west of Manbij, or any incident where one party struck another when provoked. Two non aligned armies are settling next to each other and establishing a new set of front lines and there's going to be jostling and pushing the limits, especially on the Assadian side due to their objectives and overall character. Assadians -always- pushes the limits and only back downs when dealt with by force. They're starting to fight before ISIS has even been defeated, i.e. the SAA is attacking the SDF at a time when the SDF is still very useful to them. I think this is the beginning of the next phase in the war. These factions are the most powerful left in the conflict, and they'll fight over the vacuum left behind by ISIS.
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Jun 19, 2017 18:05
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I wonder how the rest of the royal family is reacting to this, particularly the deposed crown prince? This was clearly not a careful negotiation, but a huge "gently caress you" - he was relieved of ALL positions. But IIRC, Mohammed bin Nayef is no slouch...he was Minister of the Interior which in Saudi I think is similar to being head of the FBI. I've got a feeling things could get interesting. MBN was made crown prince to appease his side of the family, since his father had been crown prince but died before the king did. Other al-Saud branches could see this as a craven power grab (which it probably is) and conservative elements are not likely to be too pleased with a 30 something upstart with wild plans for the future suddenly seizing power in a country traditionally ruled by geriatric kings. Should MBN try to respond in some way, it won't be too hard for him to find allies.
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Jun 21, 2017 06:19
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SickZip posted:Its a final looting of their country on the way out. Sell everything possible to suckers, move to london/new york/berlin and let it collapse. That's the most cynical view possible of Saudi Arabia's future, and probably also the most insightful and predictive.
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Jun 22, 2017 02:49
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Elyv posted:Last I heard, there would be "unspecified consequences". I think Qatar will call their bluff and SA will eat poo poo. Christ, they're not going invade ala Saddam. They're hoping that the blockade is enough of a stick, and it appears so far that Qatar is getting by ok regardless, and in fact is quite defiant in the face of this aggression. I wonder if the inevitable failure of this ploy will cause the Allegiance Council to reconsider the status of the new crown prince.
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Jun 23, 2017 19:52
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Here's the catch: The US will never determine that Islamic State is "truly" defeated 
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Jun 24, 2017 06:28
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How is Zero Hedge viewed around here? My guess is, "not great". Regardless, this is something I've been thinking about recently, especially with the succession shakeup. All it would really take for SA to fall into the abyss is a spark - perhaps the assassination, or even the attempted assassination, of the new crown prince. You've got to wonder how US officials (at least whatever remaining ones have real connections and know-how of SA) view the rise of MBS. They probably don't like it. Given his hand in epic faceplants like Yemen and Qatar, they probably view him as an unreliable partner, especially in contrast with the former crown prince who worked closely with the US on counterterrorism operations for years. I don't think we're about to drone him, but even the perception that the US had a hand in an assassination attempt on MBS would be disastrous. quote:Has Saudi Arabia's brinkmanship and heavy-handed policies of intervention in the Middle East come back to haunt the desert kingdom? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-29/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-march-towards-civil-war
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Jul 11, 2017 01:29
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Count Roland posted:Nothing really new here, but its a good summation of the US position in Syria. Interesting analysis. I also wonder about the Arabs under PYD rule - how will they react after ISIS is gone? Will they begin to chafe under Kurdish domination?
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Jul 19, 2017 19:56
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NY Times posted:Avoiding War with Iran To add to this - Saudi Arabia's political unsustainability and aggressive (and maybe kind of dumb) new crown prince; the Ayatollah's recent attempts to sideline their moderate president; and maybe also Trump needing to wag the dog for 2020. Soon it will take just one well-timed fuckup and the rest of the dominoes fall. Anyone want to make the case for why a war with Iran won't happen?
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Jul 21, 2017 00:13
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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/kurds-high-alert-iraqi-forces-mass-kirkuk-171013081422969.html Thoughts on this? Unless I'm missing something, a new civil war between Kurdistan and Iraq could be cataclysmic, and would probably spread to Syria, where similar tensions are brewing.
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Oct 13, 2017 16:59
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qkkl posted:Does Iran still not like Iraq because of their war, or has that changed since Saddam got deposed since both are majority Shia? Iran has entrenched itself in Iraq, economically and politically.
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Oct 14, 2017 05:40
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On a scale from one to ten, how much of a poseur is this guy? I can't help the feeling that he's naively biting off way more than he can chew here and is in for a rude awakening when he becomes king...if he even gets there.
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Oct 31, 2017 02:43
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I've probably repeated this in this thread before, but I've got a gut feeling that MBS is biting off way more than he can chew. He has to be pissing off some princes that still retain considerable power, what with the purges of the previous crown prince (who headed the Interior ministry, basically their FBI), and all these other princes and businessmen today. He's already proven himself to be a hothead with poor judgement and strategic thinking, what with the Yemen debacle and the failed Qatar embargo. And he'd be a young head of state anywhere, but this is a country where kings ascend at about the same age as popes do. Whether it's now or after he becomes king, someone has to be plotting behind the scenes to wipe that poo poo-eating grin off the crown prince's face.
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Nov 5, 2017 02:52
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Emanuel Collective posted:And assuming the Hariri "resignation" is part of MBS's plan, he just made himself some new enemies in a country they can't afford to piss off too much That's some wheels within wheels kind of poo poo. I don't know much about Hariri, other than him being in a pro-Saudi faction. How does his resignation play into the plan?
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Nov 5, 2017 06:57
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yup, straight up purge Whoa, who were these dudes? Is our young hero straight up murdering his cousins?
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Nov 6, 2017 01:13
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So, I've got a flight from New York to Bangkok via Qatar in two weeks...should I rethink it? Is poo poo about to hit the fan or am I being  ?https://twitter.com/AP/status/927355812888088576
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Nov 6, 2017 03:55
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