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coleman francis posted:Now, you stop that gaddafi. Don't make us...well, you just stop all this nonsense! "Tut Tut! if you don't
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Feb 20, 2011 14:59
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Doccers posted:England only has jumpjet carriers and a Harrier is not an air superiority fighter (Hello Falklands!) Hello falklands! "The Sea Harrier squadrons shot down 20 Argentine aircraft in air-to-air combat with no air-to-air losses" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Sea_Harrier#Falklands_War not that it matters, the carriers are up for scrap as are the harriers. I strongly doubt any action will be taken to enforce any kind of no fly zone before Gaddafi bugs the gently caress out.
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Feb 22, 2011 00:17
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Jut posted:Nice to see that the British Government is doing sweet gently caress all to help their citizens trapped there. Well we could send in the SAS oh wait they were already in country training up Gaddafi's special forces
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Feb 22, 2011 16:42
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Jut posted:If the British government's priority was their safety, then they would be going there to airlift them out with a "attack us while we are rescuing our dudes and we WILL gently caress your poo poo up" attitude, not telling them to stay put. gently caress our government. Other's have gotten their people out, why has the British government still got their finger up their rear end? AFAIK the SAS troops that were training gaddafis special forces may well still be in country and the UK government does not want them put against a wall and shot. Hard to get anything solid on it as the government refuses to comment on it. The UK jumped quite heavily into bed with Libya after 9/11 (and still has not closed all the weapons deals with them). Always remember that whatever the UK government is saying, Cameron just flew out to the middle east with reps from 8 different UK defence firms, to sell yet more arms to other dictators.
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Feb 23, 2011 18:16
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Fly Molo posted:Oh poo poo. So pretty much, "next time you mortar us, we wipe out every piece of artillery you've got within 20 miles of the border"? Probably. I'm wondering how much of an important pipeline it is for supplies for the rebels, compared to the Iraqi, Jordanian or Lebanese borders, and how this will play into Assad's game. I know it's really unlikely, but the tighter the noose gets, the more worried I will be about chemical/biological weapons use by Syria.
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Oct 4, 2012 13:40
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shitthedd posted:Way to reduce a morally-ambiguous and intractable conflict to a soundbite for partisan hacks, all while advocating to shut down the debate in favor of your team. Morals are endlessly and pointlessly debatable, the number of civilian deaths per "side" is not. When you have a first rate military force fighting an opponent who's best shot is a rocket fuelled by fertiliser and constructed from a drainpipe, it's hardly a wonder.
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Nov 14, 2012 23:24
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Uncle Jam posted:My guess to what happened with the SA 2 launch is they actually put the radar into launch mode for the first time, and it auto launched at some clutter or the threshold setting was screwy. Could it have been shot at a drone? Are SA-2's accurate enough?
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Nov 30, 2012 18:30
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It's all the west's fault! really! external terrorism. Let's pull together and deal with it! Now clap some more, or the guys standing in the aisles will be very cross!
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Jan 6, 2013 11:21
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Regime claims rebel scud with chemical weapon payload used in Khan al-Assal causing 15 deaths, 83 wounded, rebels say "nuh uh it was the regime". Regime says Turkey and Qatar hold "legal, moral and political responsibility". Hoping its another non-event. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21841217
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Mar 19, 2013 14:25
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Founding officer of the FSA (one of the first high ranking defectors) lost a leg in what was a bomb or rocket attack on his car on sunday- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21923643WEREWAIF posted:The rebels have every motive to fake or lie about chemical attacks and the SAA has every motive not to do to them. The syrian regime could well use such an attack to justify their own use of serious chemical weapons like VX/Sarin dispersed properly, rather than what appears to be farming/pool cleaning chemicals jury rigged into an attack. DesperateDan fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 15:09
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The-Mole posted:Worth noting that Timothy McVeigh blew up the OKC Federal Building with 'just' 'farming chemicals' and diesel. We don't know the circumstances yet, but it's quite possible that if whoever launched it had filled it with ANFO rather than Chlorine they would have killed more- The Chlorine attacks during the second Gulf War were largely ineffective.
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Mar 25, 2013 19:31
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The Guardian posted:
So what happens if tests do indicate Sarin use? The US has kept saying that CBW use was a "red line", yet reliably removing chemical weapons from Syria is probably going to be nigh on impossible without major combat actions, which may well prompt Syria to start lobbing around as much chemical weapons as they can, especially if they feel they are going to lose them anyway, or the regime is at direct risk. DesperateDan fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Apr 24, 2013 |
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Apr 24, 2013 22:28
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I'm struggling to find a scenario in which the chemical weapons can stay secure/not be used further (if they have been used). I would think, unless the regime is entirely stupid, that such weapons have been spread out widely, even to the point of having some pretty much ready to mix and launch (maybe even keep a very small amount mixed and ready, taking the small hit to supplies when they expire). To hit them all reliably is going to be damned near impossible- the massive coalition prepared to invade Iraq in the first gulf war had serious issues hunting a few mobile scud launchers despite massive resources (special forces, airstrikes at will) in place. I have been thinking about the main options- Invasion by parachute troops/special forces. They would need the locations of every single depot/launch site and be able to take them quick enough to stop launches, in a co-ordinated attack on what is probably at least several dozen sites. Lots of troops required, and given that the attacks would need to achieve objectives very quickly (not to mention the chemical sites probably having reasonable defences) risk of casualties is high. The wrong building gets blown up, and you potentially contaminated/killed a lot of troops/civilians. Everything would have to go near-perfectly, with perfect intelligence and there are a lot of unknowns. Airstrikes. Again, you would need to know about every site, and hit them all pretty much simultaneously to avoid other sites being pre-warned and either raising defences or launching before they are destroyed. You would also need to hit dozens of site very heavily with high heat weapons, requiring a LOT of aircraft. As mentioned, Syria has some half decent mobile SAM systems which are probably going to manage to hit at least a few incoming craft. Again, everything would have to go near-perfectly, with perfect intelligence and there are a lot of unknowns. Arm the FSA (even more). Well, they have already been known to sell their weapons to fundamentalist groups, and they aren't really centralised themselves to begin with, so your advanced weapons (like portable SAM's) are going to end up in the hands of extremist groups with a hard-on for hitting western targets (hell, they probably already are). Even with a bunch of weaponry, they are going to need training to use it effectively, and the war will still probably drag on for a long time. Then, as the bases of the regime get over-run, you have to hope that reliable rebels seize all the depots/launch sites in pretty much same manner that your parachute troops/special forces would have to. Fundie groups seize those weapons, they are probably going to point them at Israel or sell them to other groups and a truck load of poo poo hits an industrial sized fan. No-Fly zone. Does pretty much gently caress all in terms of stopping chemical weapons use, unless you are flying around hitting anything that looks remotely capable of launching weapons, in which case you are doing airstrikes and run the associated risks. May shorten the ground campaign (meaning you run many of the same risks as arming the FSA), and it also puts aircraft at risk. Do gently caress all. Either the rebels win, in which case you run many of the same risks as arming the FSA more, or the regime kills a fuckload of people in order to win, and keeps their chemical weapons, only now they have even more of a paranoia about other states trying to gently caress them over and are far more twitchy about using the only weapon that other countries fear. I think the reason the west is doing comparatively little compared with Libya is that there is no winning solution, there isn't even really a workable or desirable option with a hope of success. The red line will probably mean nothing but harsh words and sanctions. DesperateDan fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Apr 27, 2013 |
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Apr 27, 2013 20:00
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The whole situation is getting more worrying- I fear that as the regime crumbles some commander in Assad's regime or a fundie group that seizes some chemical weapons is going to do the unthinkable and start tossing that poo poo at Israel, who will probably respond with overwhelming force. I think it's still a low probability but every time Israel starts dropping poo poo on the area the chances increase a bit.
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May 5, 2013 19:35
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Al-Saqr posted:how the gently caress ISIS got them on their side I'll never be able to know. I'm going to take an barely educated leap, and say a little religion, resent at a corrupt US puppet regime and  . Iraqi Army Regular (current or former) who gets paid gently caress all, ISIS roll up to your city and you have the choice of:1: Fight a group that is effective at city fighting and irregular combat 2: RUN AWAY! 3: Take a big pay rise and keep fighting under a new flag With multiple IA divisions running away and the army's organisation being in such a state that multiple cities fall to ISIS without a coherent response and the Kurds rolling into Tikrit without even glancing over their shoulders, I suspect a fair few of the 20-30K picked option 3 and swore new oaths that day. The whole thing is a massive clusterfuck that seems to get worse everytime I check the news. I guess what happens from here is a slide into even more apparent civil war and a return to fanatics getting decades of pent up ethnic cleansing cleansing out?
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Jun 12, 2014 17:33
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Execu-speak posted:What's going on in Iraq is criminally under reported at the moment. The first I heard of this was a mention in the news today that Australia may be sending troops back. The Iraqi government/US failed to create a strong, effective/reliable military, and the major religious/tribal players didn't give up their guns when things quietened down, they simply decided to wait out till the US left. The US left. ISIS start leaning in more from Syria into easier ground in Iraq, and find that multiple divisions of IAR will run away at the sight of a thousand or so milita. Iraqi government are already so scared, they can't get enough people into Baghdad to meet quorum. ISIS exploit this and keep the momentum rolling. The Kurds have been largely sat biding their time for decades for a chance like this, and now largely have their own state in all but name. Iraqi government looks to the the only effective forces it has left available, various other religious militia and begging the US to start shock and awe. So yeah, things fell back into civil war along religious/tribal grounds as many predicted it would, but I think people are taken aback by just how quick ISIS have accelerated the collapse. I give the Iraqi government two months, less than a month if ISIS got a big bankroll recently and keep up the city seizing/defector soaking.
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Jun 13, 2014 12:49
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Berke Negri posted:Not to mention this conversation got kicked off by ISIS claiming they executed like 2000 prisoners in an afternoon (which I havent seen verified). I am almost skeptical that is possible. I mean, I can wrap my head around the logistics, but even that kind of behavior raised eyebrows in the middle ages. If this prick can personally kill off 7000 prisoners in less than a month with nothing but a suitcase full of pistols, I'm pretty sure a bunch of dudes with heavy calibre automatic weapons can knock off 2000 in less than an hour, let alone an afternoon. Not saying they did or didn't, but its certainly possible, factory style killing has been somewhat of a thing for a long time.
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Jun 16, 2014 10:20
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Al-Saqr posted:the Baiji oil refinery is under a full assault by ISIS as we speak. It's a question of not whether ISIS want the refinery, but that it being the largest refinery in Iraq it's a massive asset to the government, hence the government are forced to fight for it- it can work for ISIS in multiple ways, drawing IAR troops from other areas to relieve pressure, or simply to draw out assets to predictable places so they can be ambushed en route or in situ. Guardian live blog on Iraq is reporting that it's 75% under ISIS control now- Refinery Official posted:"The militants have managed to break in to the refinery. Now they are in control of the production units, administration building and four watch towers. This is 75% of the refinery," an official speaking from inside the refinery said. So even if the government throw in a shitload of effort to retake it, ISIS would probably be able to wreck a large part of the infrastructure of the plant before defeat/withdrawal. It's lose/lose for the regime.
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Jun 18, 2014 10:08
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Combine the two? Chalabi dammed! Firesale at Badr, Ba'ath and Beyond!
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Jun 20, 2014 08:28
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Vernii posted:So now that we're back, what's been going on in Iraq and Syria? US: Political unity or no airstrikes that we don't wanna do anyway! Maliki: Nooooope that's like a coup or something I'm the loving boss here ISIS: Thanks for the cities Kurds: Thanks for the cities Assad: LOL this is just what we expected Iran: loving told you so
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Jun 26, 2014 08:25
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suboptimal posted:If SEA deleted FYAD and inadvertently took down the rest of the forums, I'd consider it collateral damage. Article 5 of the dickbutt treaty, any attack on a treaty member shall be treated as an attack on them all except E/N
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Jun 26, 2014 18:33
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McDowell posted:BBC has an interview with Maliki where he says Iraq is now going to buy military aircraft from Belarus and Russia because the US is dragging its feet. For those who don't recall, Iraq signed an arms deal with Russia a year or so back and the US had them kill it. It's probably pretty easy for anyone to "sell" Iraq arms at the moment, given that the current regime has weeks left at best.
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Jun 26, 2014 22:26
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Especially if they don't try to hold territory from the start. Would the Iraqi army be able to stop ISIS groups armed with US military equipment from busting down the door and robbing a bunch of banks and looting more military equipment? Iraqi army? Well, they seemingly haven't managed or even really tried hard so far. The problem with military equipment larger than hiluxes with heavy calibre machineguns welded on is that not only is it visible from the air easily, it also necessitates a supply chain which is also visible- as soon as you start fighting like a "proper" army you start suffering the same vulnerabilities as one. It's why we may not have seen much in the way of reports of seized tanks/arty being used- not because ISIS are unable, more that it has not suited them to do so yet- the current tactics are working amazingly well for them.
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Jul 7, 2014 20:42
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I must say I don't find someone using Sarin/Chlorine gas on his own people while running rape/torture factories and barrel bombing cities to be a "stable and not crazy-rear end motherfucker" but perhaps I am ignorant to the realpolitik of the situation. That, or maybe it just feels like western powers supporting horrific regimes for short-term financial/political gain is a large part of how the middle east got so hosed up in the first place.
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Jul 28, 2014 14:41
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Brown Moses posted:New long video from ISIS on the capture of Tabqa airbase, lots of new, and sometimes graphic, footage Love how guys heads blown apart, decapitations, horrible mutilations, guys getting shot down while surrendering e.t.c is all fine to the ISIS censor, but dudes wearing boxer shorts has to be blurred out, gotta think of the children
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Sep 7, 2014 20:50
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I was thinking it may have been an explosion given the missing fingers but those could have been souvenirs. While some of the corpses were obviously blast damaged, the discolouration pattern of the skin is similar on all of them. I think it's to do with the thinner flesh on the face pretty much cooking off/starting to mummify in the heat faster than the thicker parts, and the abundance of flies on/around some of the bodies makes me think they aren't exactly fresh- which could be backed up by the (presumably) Daesh dudes strolling around nonchalantly, this wasn't an active battlefield.
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Oct 4, 2014 23:33
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Pukestain Pal posted:I don't understand why Turkey isn't taking any action. This is going to spill over in the very near future. This is the same Turkey that has been aiding and abetting Daesh while hatin' on the Kurds, yes? This is exactly what Turkey wanted, bunch of Kurds weakened and any spill over gives them carte blanche to do whatever the gently caress they want
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Oct 6, 2014 18:46
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Zeroisanumber posted:Difference being that the UK was able to go there and evict the Argentinians back in 1982 and they might not be capable of doing the same thing today. If Argentine forces actually managed to take the islands, perhaps- but there is a far larger occupation force on the islands than there was in '82, and unless they somehow knock out RAF Mount Pleasant, more supplies/troops/penguins can quickly be flown in. It's not going to happen because the Argentine armed forces have arguably seen worse cuts than the UK.
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Apr 7, 2015 21:05
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Toplowtech posted:Part of me wonder if there was some behind the scene deal between Iran, the US and the Saudis over something we won't learn about before a decade, but yeah honestly "it was a total failure, better stop it before it gets worse" is the more likely option. Maybe the Iranians were shipping in some surface to air weaponry and the haus of saud wanted to knock it off before they started losing expensive airframes- without ground forces it was never going to do anything effective anyway.
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Apr 21, 2015 20:00
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fade5 posted:Light stuff can be airdropped, heavier stuff usually can't be. Anyone know if there's a functional/long enough airstrip in their territory that could be used to land better amounts?
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Oct 12, 2015 20:26
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LeoMarr posted:I dont get how Kweires held out so long, why didnt isis just use MANPADs to stop their supply runs? They probably tried, but the range on manpads only really allows them to go for low altitude aircraft that are nearby. Supply runs probably flew as high as they could until the last possible minute to negate as much of the risk as they could, then lost altitude directly over the base. Fairly sure the US did similar in Afghanistan and Iraq
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Nov 10, 2015 16:20
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sparatuvs posted:A TOW missile shot in the Al Gheb plain managed to hit something causing what can be safely called the biggest explosion ever caused by a TOW missile, taking out a small village in the process.  Someone left a shipping container full of semtex somewhere stupid Baloogan posted:are the guys with TOW missiles "good guys" from the perspective of a As far as I remember, most of the groups getting TOW are Saudi backed, so yes, no, probably and maybe. My general rule is if they ain't kurds, I dunno.
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Dec 13, 2015 20:08
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i have a feeling once ISIS is "defeated" it will just turn into even more of a sectarian conflict. It sometimes feels like ISIS are more the excuse for concerned parties to get entrenched in the area at the moment, while it's undoubted that the many sectarian factions are going to go/are going hog wild at each other, it's also clear to see the Iranian/Saudi cold war being played using them, and the second "west"/russia cold war using the Iranians and Saudis as proxy-proxies.
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Dec 23, 2015 00:29
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Warbadger posted:You really get the impression that "The West" is itching for excuses to get involved in the middle east right now? Perhaps it's better to define it as "powerful, vested business/political interests in the west" rather than treating "the west" as a solid block, but yeah, politicians slavering over dropping more ordinance on syria has been a pretty common theme from what I have seen, hence the pigfucker in chief making up a mythical moderate army to support, rather than admit he's bombing in support of genocidal religious fuckwits (as opposed to some different genocidal religous fuckwits). Dapper_Swindler posted:all of this stuff reminds me of the 19th century and all the Great game poo poo, with all the great powers dicking each other over for pieces of the dying ottoman empire and central Asia. which means we are probably heading toward another world war eventually. so when do you think the Iranian/saudi cold war will be come a hot one. It does remind me of both pre-world war situations, especially when people think it simply can't happen because of trade or intertwined financial systems or whatever. I don't think humanity has advanced significantly since. That's not to say I think a world war is likely anytime soon, but I think it's like the swiss cheese model of failure- stack up the holes in the right way, and even with all the best intentions and preparations you find yourself unexpectedly facing disaster anyway. Every time the situation gets worse (and gently caress, I think we can all agree that poo poo. just. keeps. getting. worse.), more holes appear. People holding up the cold war, or MAD as some kind of totem that things have changed, or are safer, are blatantly ignoring the dozen or so times we almost fried the planet during the cold war due to paranoia, miscalculation or "taking a hard line against those imperialist pigs/commie bastards". We survived by pure, dumb luck, and I don't fancy rolling the dice again.
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Dec 23, 2015 13:28
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There's been the rumours of plans for Saudi/Other troops on the ground for awhile, and the further developments along this line are worrying, but I would be a lot more worried (and strangely, savagely amused) if all of a sudden the rebels gain the capacity to start knocking down russian aviation assets easily- the rebels must be crying out for manpads. WarpedNaba posted:I just wish everyone would get along, eat some falafel, chew some khat and watch some softcore porn. Don't forget the blackjack and hookahs
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Feb 5, 2016 11:33
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Brown Moses posted:Alt link to the video Jesus loving christ were they stoned? "yeah. we keep losing guys that go over this trench... let me stand up and look around a bit... hmmn, I'm being shot at, best wander slowly towards the enemy over open ground with no cover I guess"
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Feb 7, 2016 20:02
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Russia and Iran are no longer really supporting the Assad regime, the regime is just a husk, the figleaf that allows them to fight the proxy war they want. I think if Assad fell over and died today of natural causes, Russia/Iran probably have a preferred line of succession and contingencies in place to support it- things would largely carry on as normal. Assad isn't in charge anymore, utterly reliant on Russia/Iran he is nothing but a useful but not indispensable figurehead. Baloogan posted:Given that this thread started on an optimistic note 5 years ago, I'm curious as to what people in this thread expect to see in the middle east in 2021, 5 years hence. Even worse than I can imagine now is the only safe bet I would make
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Feb 8, 2016 13:07
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Caught up on the last 20 or so pages in one sitting. Well, that escalated a bit  If the Saudis are really going to put some air defence and troops into Syria, that probably will at very least ensure their rebel factions don't lose, unless Russia/Iran are willing to go to bat directly with the Saudis. Turkey has a pretty good old traditional casus belli for getting stuck into the north at the same time right now, and the best window of opportunity for both of them to get some boots on the ground slips away with every gain Russia/Iran makes. Right now I guess everyone just waits and watches, but if the Saudi's don't front up soon their rebel forces aren't going to have gently caress all turf or men left after another few months of Russian bombs and Iranian boots, they either get stuck in or write it off as a loss. DesperateDan fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Feb 19, 2016 |
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Feb 19, 2016 18:35
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:How much merit do you all think there is to the idea that Russia upped their involvement in Syria in large part to draw domestic attention away from Ukraine? Putin is probably reasonably happy with keeping the Ukranian conflict as a frozen one, ready to reheat if they need some more leverage elsewhere but a lot cheaper to keep frozen for now. Russia and Iran only really stepped things up in Syria when it was clear "the west" didn't have the political capital to waste assad even when he was gassing hundreds.
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Feb 25, 2016 10:10
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Generation Internet posted:So would that have been a Russian crew? Syria is dangerous country tovarisch, mother Russia provides best grade protection for it's tourists and guests! I'm not sure how similar the T90 is to other tanks, I guess it's possible that they are loaning them to the better trained Syrian troops, or possibly Iranians. There certainly didn't seem to be any fancy anti-missile protection on that tank, or if there was, it certainly didn't work too loving well. I haven't seen much in the way of reports of lots of Russian casualties, but maybe they got round to telling their troops not to post everything to VK or Facebook Regarding the TOW- all the controls/operator just seem really vulnerable to attack mounted right by the tripod, surely it would be better to remote mount them and have the operator dug in somewhere safer a short distance away with a joystick and a crt?
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Feb 26, 2016 14:28
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