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some plague rats posted:What would the utility of this be? and have you got any links or anything to support this because it sounds like a pretty interesting way to use the data we all constantly firehose into the world but I had a quick google and couldn't find anything https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/world/asia/china-linkedin-spies.html
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Jun 25, 2022 23:02
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I feel like the hand-wringing over discussion on the "Chinternet" is somewhat overblown and a bit dated at this juncture. The proudly scurrilous nature of China's "netizens" and their seemingly endless capacity to deploy homonyms and/or re-use the terms of officialdom with massive overdoses of sarcasm seems to render the GFW and other tools of harmonisation moot. For example, Friday saw heavy weibo mention of the mando-pop song "shame its not you / "可惜不是你“ following Abe Shinzo's death. The unspecified target of the comment was XJP. These comments existed openly and are very much In stark contrast to the unofficially desirable hyper-nationalistic alternative. It keeps happening, and while the party can change your QR code, it is widely recognised that for the party to act in such a fashion is too politically expensive a gambit. As such, the situation exists that the youth defacto have free reign to openly 'sarcastically' wish death upon the Chairman without fear of reprisal. I am cogniscent of the very problematic chilling effect on public open academic debate beyond the cheap shots of sarcastic wit. But, I feel it will be a short lived condition. When a not small proportion of the younger generation seem to be quite happy to turn what would normally be a cesspool of vitriol against a "common enemy" into a thinly veiled death threat to the current leadership, it is the leadership with a problem, not the kids. As ugly as it sounds, I'm proud to see this in the generations behind mine. Similarly, the kids in HK who took charges for holding a blank sheet of paper in public". The problematic hyper-nationalistic 'little pinks' and the 'wolf-warrior diplomats' are reliant on a cohesive narrative. It seems very apparent that maintaining that narrative is an open struggle given that the Party is in open warfare mode to the extent that the PM is contradicting the Chairman. It's also apparent that those problem groups have been instructed to dial back their rhetoric. I read today (belatedly) that the party is recently admitting to errors in COVID response/financial management/and diplomacy. I feel that is redundant to mention here, but this 'honest and vulnerable' approach will obviously only last as long as it takes to sign a new trade deal.
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Jul 10, 2022 22:43
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ronya posted:There's different kinds of handwringing, I think Thanks for that. I was lazy in my take and looking at the Chinese in isolation. My bad. Of course your parallels to the Eastern European experience do serve as a very probable guideline and likely indication of which direction it will go. Given that XJP is all but emperor now it seems likely that he will continue to try and stamp down ruthlessly. Having said that I don't think he is as secure as he is trying to project. The several academic and military essays that appear very regularly and vehemently disagree with his desired take on events have never gone away. It's this fact that keeps me hopeful. For what it's worth, I feel that while his ascendancy is assured, his power will dissipate to other loci. The recent tour to apologize to Europe suggests there are leadership levels of awareness that his mis-steps have breached several thresholds and that they are fearful of reprisals.
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Jul 12, 2022 11:54
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Fritz the Horse posted:I asked for the thread to not rehash Peng Shuai to score internet argument points unless there was new information. I allowed it because there was some good discussion and angles I didn't recall reading here before. Now we're back to scoring internet argument points and hurling insults. That's enough on this topic, thanks. Thank gently caress for that. And, in all honesty, Jack Ma's laying low has far more room for wild speculation. When taken in conjunction with the several other tech bro CEOs who deleted their Weibo and similar accounts, it's a much better story.
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Jul 25, 2022 05:01
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is Nancy Pelosi really going to Taiwan? I’ve been craving niu rou mian for a while, so I’m really jealous. I'm not sure Pelosi can not go. The risk of being seen to allow a foreign power to dictate your movements is too high.
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Jul 27, 2022 12:49
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It's another great example of the Wolf Warriors' attitude shooting themselves in the foot. Oddly, the last time I saw wolf warrior mentioned was the Chinese ambassador to the EU apologising for it having gone too far. It seems the internal communication isn't working, or alternatively the ambassador to the EU was just stroking everyone off in the hope that they are so isolated they wouldn't see how transparent his lies were. Given their bellicosity over this issue, and the price for America being far too high, it almost assures that Pelosi has to make the trip. Same as FONOP (I hate that term - Right of innocent passage is the proper term). The other great examples of the bellicose attitude delivering the exact opposite of what was intended is the end result of bullying Australia where they now don't need/want China's coal trade. Europe not taking a call from XJP is just hilarious. I'm hoping Pelosi has the courage to make the flight. And, I'm hoping she uses Air force One with its well armed escort. Since the threats have now been made, I'm hoping the US shows some metal here.
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Jul 28, 2022 05:42
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I understand the hesitant attitude.But I feel like Pelosi has the right game plan in mind. It's better to deal with this problem sooner than later. I'm being glib, but, the outpouring of ugly nationalism following the last time she cancelled the trip really feels like justification enough for her to go ahead with it. More seriously though, I think China recently (last month) claimed everything inside the first island chain as 'internal Waters'. It honestly beggars belief how high the leadership must be to conclude that the international order will simply let it slide.
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Jul 28, 2022 11:33
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Red and Black posted:The status quo is actually a brilliant compromise. Basically all nations and the UN recognize Taiwan is a part of China. Which allows China to save face and hold out hope for peaceful reunification. On the other hand Taiwan enjoys de facto independence. It’s a win for everyone. This is a tricky position to maintain given that the status quo is being unilaterally undermined.
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Jul 31, 2022 13:58
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Red and Black posted:Indeed and the US should stop undermining it. Oh dear. That's a very poor quality take. Good luck with that.
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Jul 31, 2022 15:15
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Horatius Bonar posted:In other news, absolutely no verification but a post on Weibo, mainland fishermen seem to be heading to Taiwan. Don't trust this but we'll see what happens, fishermen have been the #1 casualties in territorial water disputes around here. If this is BS and nothing happens I'm happy. In any case it's being shared among the mainland population which counts for something. This is a great way to initiate an escalation while maintaining the ability to deny responsibility.
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Aug 6, 2022 09:28
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ronya posted:This has been bouncing around for a couple days but is now being tweeted by journos: I saw a very similar article on chinadigitaltimes not that long ago. Your post has more details than was in the article I read. (Apologies for being vague but, I've just spent an age searching and I'm not able to find it). But yeah, the main point of the article was that civil servants would be penalised if their savings showed that they could purchase a property. It used a ridiculous term along the lines of unharmonius savings os somesuch.
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Aug 15, 2022 22:50
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 I"m 100% sure that I am entirely naive. While it is entirely obvious that this is/has always been the case, it still amazes me when the bare-faced audacious reality of it comes to light. I have a quiet hope that the pinks turn their focus on to Hu Xijin.
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Aug 23, 2022 04:17
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Daduzi posted:Especially since the insane real estate prices in tier 1 cities testify to the very real demand still there. I'm confused. The insane prices are the result of an over heated building market based on a demand bubble created by the ponzi financing. Without the ponzi financing the demand collapses and the insane prices correct. I might need to re-read the article I read which explained why the Tier 1 prices are overdue a significant correction.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:12
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A big flaming stink posted:wait, ponzi financing? what i had gleaned from ronya's posts is that china has been juicing the property and construction market as a matter of fiscal policy for quite some time, not that it was engaging in outright fraud, especially not the sort that is implied by "ponzi" I was being glib, and Ronya is entirely correct. It was legal to operate in the fashion they were doing. Having said that, I am not sure that characterizing the financing models being employed as Ponzi, or maybe more accurately pyramid is "that" far wide of the mark. In terms of actual fraud I think it is still a little too early to gauge exactly how bad it has been.
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Sep 19, 2022 07:36
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Wheeljack posted:This same 60 Minutes interview had Biden saying the pandemic was over and his staff was walking that back the next day too. My very likely wrong impression it is downgraded to an epidemic. Not out of the woods by any measure, but, not technically a Pandemic.
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Sep 20, 2022 09:34
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Franks Happy Place posted:it's usually some specious mandate of heaven poo poo about how all the ducks in Suzhou are flying backwards because Xi has offended Tian My favourite of these recently was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY7WqcQN_QY It's honestly fun to enjoy the daft poo poo occasionally.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:31
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ronya posted:Naughton's essay for The Wire is available for free in the UCSD China Center's report on the upcoming 20th Congress: https://china.ucsd.edu/_files/2022-report-20th-party-congress.pdf Thanks for this.
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Oct 13, 2022 14:42
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Tomn posted:Well yeah, but I thought it was still at the level of cold stiffness and jockeying for diplomatic influence in SE Asia, not active economic hostility (Trump didn't really count in my mind because, well, Trump). They have competently demonstrated 'area denial' weapons. The area denial they have demonstrated outstrip the range of a carrier group. There are a number of caveats of course. The fact remains, currently the force projection is not in the acceptable range, hence CHIPS Act etc.
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Oct 14, 2022 21:42
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some plague rats posted:What? I'm not clear on how this relates to the post you quoted, or even what it means. This is going to be difficult without sounding patronising. What I said was: The US is concerned that they are demonstrably no longer in reliable control of a significant geo-political area of strategic importance. The result of this lack of control has resulted in policies such as the CHIPS Act. As I mentioned, previously, there are several very well established caveats worth considering.
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Oct 14, 2022 22:16
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D-Pad posted:
The usual response is tit-for-tat. I appreciate the country is busy at the minute, but I am wondering what the tat will be this time? Threatening to withdraw Chinese citizenship from their people working abroad seems very counter-intuitive. I'm guessing they can't complete with like for like so it'll land in the rare-earths or similar.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:35
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D-Pad posted:We should see pretty soon I would imagine. They don't seem to want to make it a thing while the Congress is going on but I would bet they'll move pretty aggressively after that is done. It's certainly something they'll be discussing. The Taiwan issue is frustrating because a lot of interests want their calculus in play. It's a fantastically entertaining rabbit hole of theories and counter theories of mad-hatter politicians, despot decision making of old man in their last term of office. Its great fun for sure. But I think in reality there are some cold light of day considerations we can look to. I think it works best to reduce the issue to the more likely, and most basic considerations in play, since they will decide the issue. While I am very guilty of encouraging the recognition of TSMC's importance to the global supply trade for a number of years, I also think the current degree of attention it is getting is a little over-zealous. I'm glad its on the agenda as a strategic reality, but, i don't think TSMC is a primary calculus in the potential for conflict. There are a number of people who would claim that Taiwan's usage of TSMC as a golden shield is actually counter-productive since it highlights and therefore encourages diversification away from them. I think however, there are more basic considerations in play before anyone will care about a singular industry regardless of its technical importance. The military and strategic reality of the regional geography of the 'first island chain' is the first strategic importance. That hasn't and wont change regardless of whether TSMC HQ is a smoking crater or not. (Until of course it does change, and then we will have quite a lot more to discuss) Obviously we are not really interested in the domestic politics of Taiwan. Its a bonus that they are the most healthy functioning democracy in Asia etc, but, it's not a real concern. The international shipping in the region "is" important, and so that reinforces a key reasoning behind the Island Chain strategy. TSMC is replaceable. It is happening, and it is a very costly endeavor, but the skills and knowledge are available, and they are not as dangerously concentrated. Losing the strategic keystone in the first island chain however, is not as easy to recover from. tl;dr: The wider island is the driver, not TSMC nor anything else inside Taiwan, be that people, politics or industry. Militarily speaking, the last gossip I heard was the guy in charge of the Eastern forces (who would be responsible for the invasion) says it's not doable and he doesn't want to. Xi's Power is great, but he needs to swap that guy out to get any kind of plan (pun intended) on the table. For the US, it's a "hold the line" thing, and until that line is threatened, I would treat any other discuss as smoke and mirrors.
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Oct 19, 2022 03:10
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Here's a question/topic I haven't seen a great deal of discussion on, but the past couple for days gave me pause for thought because I haven't been able to decipher how to think on it as yet. An unusual point was made during Xi's speech which i thought odd. He stated the the PLA was the Party's Army. That stuck me as odd because it demotes the actual Nation State. It therefore puts allegiance to the Party above the Nation (under the threat of their having the monopoly of coercive force). For instance, does this mean that he can declare the Nation State of China dead, and that China is now a Party State. As such, if you are not a member of the Party you are not a member of China. That would then apply to those abroad. It would give them an entirely different 'mandate' to govern without some of the more traditional roles and responsibilities of a government. I'm not sure if I am over-reading it, nor am I sure if supplanting the State has been tried before in this fashion. (E: added/re-arranged) url fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 03:42
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droll posted:Isn't the vanguard party meant to be the proletariat, the most revolutionary and educated in Marxism, they ensure the dictatorship of the proletariat prevails and fight to stop the reinstatement of the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. Therefore the people's army under the dictatorship of the proletariat via the workers party is the party's army? Meh. tractor fanatic posted:The PLA has always been the armed wing of the Communist Party Yeah, I remember both of these. For whatever reason i got to wondering if there is a contradiction where Party supersedes, State / Nation.
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Oct 19, 2022 09:55
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Slow News Day posted:The rest of your post hinges on this statement, but it is a false one. Like, yes, some countries have started spending money to bring some chip manufacturing capability inhouse, but the overwhelming majority of that is for mid-level chips such as those used in consumer devices and vehicles. The type of cutting edge manufacturing that TSMC does, which is what grants them "golden goose/shield" status for Taiwan, will likely not be replaced anytime soon, for a variety of reasons that cannot simply be overcome by throwing money at them. I don't think it's entirely fair to call it false, and then say "anytime soon" in the next line. It is not impossible and it is an entirely practical and desirable necessity. I didn't mention a timeline, because to so so would be at the very best a lazy guess. The significant investments that are taking place are necessary steps in the right direction on that longer path. My main concern was to rebut the notion that China or the US would adjust its strategic planning based on their accessibility to TSMC's output rather than the primary objective of maintaining the first island chain. I think the most significant calculus in the region is how capable we believe the 'Rocket Force' is and whether it has the ability to project force sufficiently far enough to enable 'unhindered' activity within the first island chain. Eric Cantonese posted:No. I'm just wondering why you guys were digging into it. I don't think it indicates any new direction in how the CCP views itself or governs. Eric Cantonese posted:Do people really believe the CCP cares that much about ideological consistency or the party/state distinction ? They have to keep some grounding in Marxist/Lenninist/Maoist thought for window dressing, but the CCP left that path to true communism (as people in the past envisioned it) a long time ago. I don't think Xi and his backers care about what you think their government is as long as the CCP is the only party in charge and the CCP is internally stable and the country itself is stable. That derail was entirely my fault, I apologise. For whatever reason, this bothered me more than normal.
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Oct 19, 2022 20:55
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In addition to bad-moutjing the Western vaccines as being dangerous and untested etc etc, the claim was that their mRNA was just over the horizon. Side bar: I think broadcasting the World Cup unedited was an huge oversight and far exceeds the "Wuhan Pool Party" in terms of its successful messaging. The Wuhan pool party was pumped as a PR push of China's success. The World Cup PR isn't motivated in that fashion, but has had that effect. And, honestly, I'm glad.
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Nov 30, 2022 07:54
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They're walking it back as best as possible because every screen on the planet is showing the World Cup and they have lost the marginal credibility they had (among non vpn users). That they have not rolled out an even half way decent vaccine program is going to be a question they will have to deal with soon. I suspect Pfizer will see a very large batch order for their pill version pretty soon also. On the extremely cynical side, this ameliorates a small portion of their demographics problem.
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Nov 30, 2022 18:41
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A few pages back there was some discussion regarding TSMC. One of the replies, which, honestly took me by surprise, was suggesting that the US was practicing some corporate neo-colonisation. Anyways, I just wanted to drop off a link to this YT channel which has some good deep-dives and is very much worth a subscribe imo. This vid addresses that hot-take. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzZC6aFsk3M E:  I've done worse snipes than this. url fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Dec 9, 2022 |
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Dec 9, 2022 09:06
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Ranter posted:12 minute video. Can you please summarize the points in the video, why it's good, and worth it? He concisely summarizes (with light humour) the timescales of the new fabs which the CHIPS Act have subsidized and their roles within the global supply chain. In understanding this, and the strategy of node-1, and also in addition to the other main stages of IC manufacture (packaging), its a reasonable rebuttal to the notion that the US is somehow scalping TSMC/Taiwan. 12 minutes is a good trade here.
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Dec 9, 2022 09:18
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Charliegrs posted:Forgive me if this counts as Clancychat I'm not sure where the line is drawn these days. There are several urban legends around. I think the consensus seems to be that a military buildup is very visible across the strait meaning that the engineers will be shipped to the US. The machinery is going to be trashed to whatever degree is reasonably possible. The fabs in the US will be 1 generation behind the cutting edge. Again, it's all speculation but there was a documented proposal in the US to the above effect.
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Dec 10, 2022 04:43
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Fwiw: You would think that ASML would just remote in and change a single setting to one of the lasers that control the motors. Hey presto $300,000,000 coaster maker. It would take legitimate talent to spot the change, in addition to eons of time. Likely enough to get to the next generation (angstrom I think).
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Dec 10, 2022 08:59
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KillHour posted:"This is a fully functional piece of future technology except one thing has been changed" does not render it nearly as useless as you claim. More realistically, you would want to completely wipe any propriety code (including firmware) and destroy any physical hardware that China could not easily recreate (mirrors, ICs, laser assemblies). Even still, there would certainly be valuable information to help accelerate a domestic program. Agreed, I was being glib.
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Dec 11, 2022 09:18
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It's a strange logic, but it sort of makes sense, I guess. https://twitter.com/TGTM_Official/status/1602468346213138437?t=TGSow50-ehxlKZtawlv6Ow&s=19  Which leads to old school Soviet era jokes: https://twitter.com/TGTM_Official/status/1601169797311385600?t=YXNaOYk4B6lYyVPIsaEkiQ&s=19 url fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Dec 13, 2022 |
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Dec 13, 2022 07:16
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Boris Galerkin posted:Is this saying the US controls all that airspace over the Pacific? Why? It's the early draft of the 1776 dashed line.
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Feb 6, 2023 17:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:They'd get shot down before they even got close to China. Not by Russia
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Feb 10, 2023 08:48
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ronya posted:circumspect Chinese diplomacy. Thread title please!
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Apr 19, 2023 21:23
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WarpedLichen posted:Crouching Tiger :/ Ang Lee is Taiwanese 🇹🇼
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May 5, 2023 21:49
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It's absolutely a thing. China has built itself massive shipbuilding infrastructure, and the U.S. has more or less let the industry run down because there's no profit in having lots of private capacity sitting around vacant while most of the government naval yards were axed after the end of the Cold War. It's odd that a concurrent conversation for the past x years had been that China will convert it's fleet of commercial fishing, and ro-ro ferries for military use in a taiwan landing force. Also, I thought China's international commercial container ships were mostly bought in and refurbished. I am happy to be corrected
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Sep 24, 2023 01:07
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Raenir Salazar posted:So they have a gradual build up that doesn't prompt an immediate response, and of course their oh poo poo button which they've quietly prepared. That seems entirely plausible and reasonable. Thanks for taking the time.
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Sep 24, 2023 03:29
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Discendo Vox posted:
https://archive.is/al5oL
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Feb 24, 2024 10:12
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