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DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

No that's not how we got Fukushima at all. How we got Fukushima was TEPCO ignoring sound advice on the placement of their Generators and Backup Circuit Switchgear.

Worth noting that 15 miles away, Fukushima Diani has the same reactors and same plant setup, but their switchgear was further above the water level and suffered minor ill effects despite going through the same tsunami.
And yet, despite the meltdowns, despite the incident, no major impact to human life was caused. The sheer amount of hand wringing from the accident is hilarious given the number of people killed by the tsunami itself versus the plant meltdown.
This does slightly ignore the people forced to relocate from Fukushima and the surrounding area. Which I would posit is a major impact to human life.

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DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Phanatic posted:

First you claimed " If you have an all nuclear fleet capacity factors of around 0.3 could be expected, which triples the price of nuclear energy.." Then Electric Wrigglies said "I think 30% utilisation of nuclear is an exaggeration even in a pure nuclear fleet." Then *you* said "30% isn’t an exaggeration, its the capacity factor of ERCOT’s generation fleet as a whole."

So at this point I admit, you've run rhetorical rings around me: you seem to be arguing that ERCOT's mix where nuclear provides less than 9% of the electricity and runs at 97% capacity day in and day out is somehow...evidence...that if we did a thing which literally nobody says we should do and power civilization exclusively via nuclear power that nuclear capacity would drop to less than a third of what nuclear shows in Texas.

Do I have that right?
If I understand their argument correctly, then what they are saying is that given the following demand curves, no matter what the source of electricity, the system as a whole can only reach a certain capacity factor.

In the summer, peak demand is on average roughly 650 million kWh per hour, while in the spring the lowest power demand is only 320 million kWh per hour. Nuclear power currently has a very high capacity factor, because it is (by design) used to mostly cover the minimum power demand. If the power grid were to be mostly powered by nuclear power, then it would - by necessity - result in a lower capacity factor for nuclear power.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


The summary in the tweet is wrong. The vote was about reactivating some coal power plants now and changing the priority of what power plants can generate power. Previously, some coal power plants were held in reserve as they produce more CO2. Now, they can instead turn off some gas power plants and hold them in reserve in order to use less gas. The nuclear power plants are still producing right now and are unaffected by this vote.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

Yes, but its normally mixed with water.

They basically wash the core in high strength boric acid to permanently poison it and render it dead. Its basically out of legislative spite.
Can you post a source for this? I've tried finding information about this several times and haven't found anything about it.

CommieGIR posted:

The problem is exactly that. That they are unaffected by this vote. That they refuse to extend their lifetime, they'd rather double down on those coal plants than address the issue.
The vote was about doing something with an immediate effect on gas usage as a reaction to the lowered deliveries by Russia. The coal plants are not being reactivated in order to be able to turn off the nuclear power plants at the end of the year. The summary in the tweet is wrong.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

The summary reflects that they plan to continue to close the plants on schedule, which will require more plants coming online to make up the difference. That is reflected in the summary.
The law passed is about potentially activating coal plants in case there is not enough power available due to a lack of gas. If there is enough gas, then they will not be activated.

quote:

There is no case where Germany will be able to close the plants on schedule AND not add more plants, especially in Winter. This is part of why the Dutch are asking them to put off the shutdown of the last 3 plants. In the end, this will both result in Germany massively missing their emissions goals and falling back on more fossil fuels for energy generation.

Do you think the demand those reactors are satisfying right now will just disappear when they are shutdown, which is scheduled for the end of this year? Even more, do you think its okay, in the middle of a growingly more apparent climate crisis, to handwave away the sheer madness of accepting emissions increases by burning lignite coal to replace them?
There are enough power plants available if there is enough gas. Everybody has been planning with the last three nuclear power plants being turned off at the end of the year. A huge litany of other things was passed in order to quickly lower emissions (including lots of stuff that the CDU has blocked for decades). The law about potentially reactivating coal plants also demands further measures for compensation of additional CO2 emissions generated by that law.

The fact that nuclear power plants are several orders of magnitude better than coal, oil and gas power plants with regards to CO2 emissions is out of the scope of the problem being addressed by that law. That is something that was decided due to a slow societal development spanning half a century, ended by a haphazard back and forth by the CDU that cost the tax payer billions.

quote:

This is standard process for removing nuclides in contaminated metal, once its done the reactor is toast. Its commonly done relatively quickly after Power Off once the fuel is removed, and once its done there's no going back.
https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2020-12/decontec.pdf
So is it a standard process or is it something that Germany is doing "basically out of spite"?

Jaxyon posted:

Are they reactivating coal plants, and deactivating nuclear plants at the end of the year?

If the tweet summary is inaccurate about causation, but accurate about the effects, then this is largely an academic clarification.

Which is useful sure, but....
Quoting the sentence of the tweet I am objecting to:
"The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. "
Emphasis mine. That signals intent, which isn't there. I also like that they left off that the FDP are part of the coalition (and voted for the law), and that the Left (part of the opposition) also voted for the law.

They are making it possible to (re)activate some coal plants that have been shut off or are held in reserve - if there is an acute lack of gas. It there is no acute lack of gas, nothing changes in comparison to before.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Jaxyon posted:

As I said, you are technically correct about the tweet being misleading. The best kind of correct!

But the larger picture is accurate. Germany is bringing fossil fuels on line directly due to shutting down nuclear plants.
The larger picture is accurate, yes. Due to shutting off the nuclear power plants over the last twenty and more years, Germany has burned more fossil fuels than if they hadn't done that. However, this decision does not have anything to do with that larger picture.The (three) nuclear plants are currently producing roughly 5% of the power required and will continue to produce 5% of the power required until the end of the year. They will then stop producing 5% of the power required, as has been known and planned for in the last ten years.

CommieGIR posted:

There's nothing inaccurate there? The plants are scheduled to go offline at the end of this year. What exactly are you actually arguing is wrong? The SDP-Green's could instead extend the closure of the nuclear plants till 2024 or beyond and avoid a lot of this.
The SPD-Greens-FDP-Linke have made it possible to turn on some coal plants in case there is an acute lack of gas (if Russia decides to turn off gas completely or not turn it back again after routine maintenance). They did not make it possible to turn on coal plants so that they can turn off nuclear plants.

quote:

They are not. And given Germany has been extremely vocal about their commitment to shutting down their nuclear plants, they don't need to say explicitly as to why they are spinning up standby coal plants. Its obvious as to why.
They apparently need to be very explicit about why they are opening up the possibility to spin up standby coal plants, as you do not (want to) understand it: providing a temporary alternative in case there isn't enough (Russian) gas this winter.

The CDU and SPD bet big on (Russian) gas, while the CDU and FDP deliberately killed off the vast majority of the German renewable industry. Shortly after they did that, the CDU and FDP also put the final nail in the coffin of the German nuclear power industry as a reaction to Fukushima. Due to these things, Germany is a lot more dependent on fossil fuels and especially Russian gas than if those things hadn't happened.

quote:

Find something better to nitpick about the tweet other than Germany's commitment to double down on fossil fuels rather than deal with their fear about nuclear plants which emit 1/100th the emissions. What are you defending or attacking here? Germany is in the wrong with their current strategy.
Luckily there has recently been a change in government, which has lead to the strategy of the last 10-15 years being changed. The current situation is being caused by the decisions made under the leadership of the CDU over the last 15 years. Not the Greens. Or other (weaker and less influential) environmental groups.

There has been no commitment to double down on fossil fuels by the current government. There has been a commitment to double down on renewables.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

Which they haven't done and are not going to be able to do. Germany's renewables only plan is not only in utter shambles, they are re-opening and bailing out their coal industry. They hosed up. Its over for at least the next decade or more. The vast majority of the EU is actively doubling down on Renewables + Nuclear and trying to get away from coal at all costs, Germany doesn't seem to be capable of both reading the room and admitting they are now in a bind from a half-assed plan based on fearmongering and lobbying by the fossil fuel industry.

You are defending someone cutting off their nose to spite their face here. Germany could save those plants and these coal plants would be totally unnecessary. Your country is addicted to fossil fuels in the worst way and instead of admitting they made a bit mistake they keep making the mistake and say that they have the best plan. Sorry, you are absolutely out of your mind.
Germany didn't have a renewables only plan. Germany had a "do nothing and see what happens" plan with a healthy addition of "buy cheap Russian gas in order to promote peace and democracy in Russia" plan.

The doubling down on renewables plan was literally passed this week by the new government.

Nuclear power provides 5-6% of power production. Coal currently provides ~30% of power production. Renewables (despite the "do nothing and see what happens" plan) provides 50% of power production. Gas provides 10-15% of power. How is nuclear supposed to replace gas or coal in the short-term? There is a short-term crunch due to the "buy cheap Russian gas" plan imploding due to a war.

quote:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211231-germany-to-close-nuclear-reactors-despite-energy-crisis

Which they wouldn't even have to do if they hadn't doubled down on shuttering the nuclear plants at the end of the year. One of these things affects the other despite the fact that the word nuclear doesn't appear in the article.

You can look at both and realizing removing nuclear baseload means adding baseload elsewhere. These things are distinctly connected.
Personally, I would prefer they keep the nuclear plants running. However, that would still require the emergency preparations being put into place, as there isn't enough nuclear power available to replace (Russian) gas.

Jaxyon posted:

Yeah it's not a super weird totally amazing coincidence that the country known for it's large fossil fuel production industry is turning to fossil fuels in a time where we are undergoing a crisis created by fossil fuels.
Germany does not have a large fossil fuel production industry. Germany once had the largest solar and wind production industry in the world. Unfortunately the CDU and FDP decided to destroy it. Despite those gently caress ups by a government that didn't care too much about renewables, Germany is still doing relatively well with regards to decarbonizing its electricity production. That is only going to happen faster with a party in the government that actually cares about that (just like last time we had that - we kickstarted the worldwide renewables industry).

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

Your country has shuttered more nuclear plants than it will ever replace with renewables.
At the absolute maximum nuclear provided roughly 30% of power. Renewables currently provide 50% of power.

Apparently it is possible. As it has already happened.

quote:

Sorry man, they are putting those coal plants on standby because they intend to close the last three in some stupid dedication to sheer madness.
They are putting those coal plants on standby because there might be a lack of gas. If there is enough gas, then those coal plants will not be turned on.

quote:

I don't care what they passed, what they've done is have a worse carbon footprint than France next door, and they double down on closing the very things that make France one of the lowest emitters in the EU.
Yes, France is currently and has been better. However, we can't go back into the past and change what has happened. Despite a lot of hurdles thrown in the way by the CDU led coalitions of the last 16 years, Germany has been rapidly catching up and is a lot better than most large industrial countries out there.

quote:

Their goal to decarbonize their energy is now going to be a decade behind because they openly made themselves dependent on Russian gas to enable them to shutter nuclear plants, and here we are and they are reaping it, and there answer is to double down on lignite coal. COAL!
As you continue to ignore, that is something that was caused by the decisions of another governing coalition, and the current coalition is trying to fix that. The current government is not doubling down on coal, but is doubling down on renewables. The previous governing coalitions actively sabotaged not only nuclear, but renewables as well. More coal is being prepared as an emergency measure for this winter. Not another decade.

quote:

At least admit shuttering their last 3 nuclear plants is bad, that's 15% of their total Electricity load. You have to at least admit that.
I have repeatedly said that I personally prefer they would leave them on. However, nuclear currently only provides 5-6% of power. It can't replace coal or gas.
Source: https://strom-report.de/strom/

Oracle posted:

Which portion of that 50% of renewables is wood pellets?
Biomass is roughly 8% of power production. Source: https://strom-report.de/strom/

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

On a good day. Remind me again, Germany's not in an energy crisis, is it? It is? Oh.
Averaged over the last 6 months, nuclear provided 6%, renewables renewables provided 51%.

Germany is not facing an energy crisis because of renewables, but because of gas supply.

CommieGIR posted:

And France will continue to do it better, sorry. Germany's renewables only plan is a joke, and its hilarious to see them double down on something that isn't actually working.
About that:

https://www.energate-messenger.com/news/223699/nuclear-power-plant-problems-make-france-an-electricity-importer posted:

Nuclear power plant problems make France an electricity importer

Paris (energate) - In terms of nuclear power, 2022 will remain a difficult year for the French state-owned company EDF. According to the company, in the first five months its in-house nuclear power production of 134 billion kWh was 15 per cent below that of the same period last year. According to an analysis by the BEE, this gap led to France importing massive amounts of electricity from Germany in the first half of the current year for the first time in a long time. For this purpose, the association analysed data from the Federal Network Agency on electricity import and export patterns between Germany and France.

While Germany always imported between 2 and just under 8 billion kWh from France in the first half of 2015 to 2021, the opposite was true in 2022: France purchased just under 2 billion kWh from Germany in the first six months of the current year. Current data from the transmission grid operator RTE from 5 June also fit into this picture. According to this, the group's nuclear power plants currently cover 55 per cent of the national electricity demand in France. At peak times and with good availability, however, this quota is up to 70 per cent. The BEE also blames this development on the early summer, which has been very hot in parts: "The above-average temperatures have caused the waters in France to warm up. As a result, numerous nuclear power plants in France had to reduce their output because they could no longer cool their reactors down far enough," the association concludes.

EDF: Summer could bring cooling water shortages

Fittingly, EDF recently admitted to media representatives that the expected heat and drought would probably lead to a reduction in nuclear power production due to a lack of cooling water. This is according to the Bloomberg information service. France experienced its first heat wave almost a fortnight ago in June. Regardless of the weather, the French state-owned company continues to struggle with technical problems that force large parts of the 56 French nuclear power plants to undergo overhauls for longer than originally planned. This in turn prompted the company to revise its production forecasts for nuclear power.

Jaxyon posted:

Is it not the biggest producer in the world of the type of coal that is pretty much only used in power generation?
Second largest producer of brown coal/lignite. Most everybody is smart enough to not use brown coal. We unfortunately have a party that is traditionally very close to the coal industry and it therefore still has an outsized influence on everything. Coal production employs roughly 20 thousand people in Germany. Which is why I described it as not significant. At its peak in 2011, the renewable energy industry employed more than 400 thousand people.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Jul 9, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Potato Salad posted:

It's also pretty hilarious to watch people cite "Germany is over half renewables!" with (1) the obvious gaping hole that is the rest of the (growing) fossil share

Doesn't seem to be growing (everything below red is fossil fuels). It would have started falling a lot further if nuclear power had not been shut off, but even so, fossil fuels are shrinking.

quote:

and (2) the slice of German "renewables" that involves importing entire forests from Africa and Southeast Asia at horrifying rates to burn as sacrifice to the German Green Party's false gods of "sustainability" and "stewardship."
Biomass (from all sources) provides roughly 8-9% of electricity. Wood is only a part of that. Most of the growth in renewables has come from wind, not biomass. In the last ten years, renewables went from 20% to 50%. Biomass went from 6% to 9%.

Looking at this source, the top source of wood imports for Germany in 2020 were:

quote:

Top trading partners (import of "Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal") of Germany in 2020:
Poland with a share of 16.6% (1.44 billion US$)
Austria with a share of 14.8% (1.28 billion US$)
Czech Republic with a share of 9.16% (793 million US$)
China with a share of 7.44% (644 million US$)
Russia with a share of 5.14% (445 million US$)
Netherlands with a share of 3.66% (317 million US$)
Finland with a share of 3.3% (286 million US$)
Denmark with a share of 2.99% (259 million US$)
Sweden with a share of 2.99% (259 million US$)
France with a share of 2.93% (254 million US$)
Not a single country from Africa or Southeast Asia. Note that Germany also exported nearly as much wood as it imported.

MrYenko posted:

I mean, they’re not German forests getting ground up and compressed into pellets, so it must be green, right?
From what I can find, the vast majority of wood pellets are actually produced from industrial waste/production leftovers. And Germany actually produces a lot of wood and uses it. So, it actually is a lot of German forests being compressed into pellets.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jul 9, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


mobby_6kl posted:

But... there seems to be an issue. Nuclear output is like half of what it was in the winter and they're importing a ton instead. Although the total is also way lower, which makes sense if you're not using A/C and don't need as much heating and lighting.

Anyone knows what's up with this? Importing so much right now is not a good look.
I posted an article about this before, but it was ignored.

So here have another article from a month ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html
Some excerpts:

quote:

French Nuclear Power Crisis Frustrates Europe’s Push to Quit Russian Energy

Plumes of steam towered above two reactors recently at the Chinon nuclear power plant in the heart of France’s verdant Loire Valley. But the skies above a third reactor there were unusually clear — its operations frozen after the worrisome discovery of cracks in the cooling system.

The partial shutdown isn’t unique: Around half of France’s atomic fleet, the largest in Europe, has been taken offline as a storm of unexpected problems swirls around the nation’s state-backed nuclear power operator, Électricité de France, or EDF.
...
But the industry has tumbled into an unprecedented power crisis as EDF confronts troubles ranging from the mysterious emergence of stress corrosion inside nuclear plants to a hotter climate that is making it harder to cool the aging reactors.
...
But fixing the crisis at EDF won’t be easy.

With 56 reactors, France’s atomic fleet is the biggest after the United States’. A quarter of Europe’s electricity comes from nuclear power in about a dozen countries, with France producing more than half the total.

But the French nuclear industry, mostly built in the 1980s, has been plagued for decades by a lack of fresh investment. Experts say it has lost valuable engineering expertise as people retired or moved on, with repercussions for EDF’s ability to maintain the existing power stations — or build ones to replace them.
...
EDF’s recent troubles began mounting just before Russia invaded Ukraine. The company warned last winter that it could no longer produce a steady nuclear power supply, as it struggled to catch up with a two-year backlog in required maintenance for dozens of aging reactors that was put off during coronavirus lockdowns.

Inspections unearthed alarming safety issues — especially corrosion and faulty welding seals on crucial systems used to cool a reactor’s radioactive core. That was the situation at the Chinon atomic plant, one of France’s oldest, which produces 6 percent of EDF’s nuclear power.

EDF is now scouring all its nuclear facilities for such problems. A dozen reactors will stay disconnected for corrosion inspections or repairs that could take months or years. Another 16 remain offline for reviews and upgrades.

Others are having to cut power production because of climate change concerns: Rivers in the south of France, including the Rhône and the Gironde, are warming earlier each year, often reaching temperatures in the spring and summer too warm to cool reactors.

Today, French nuclear production is at its lowest level since 1993, generating less than half the 61.4 gigawatts that the fleet is capable of producing. (EDF also generates electricity with renewable technologies, gas and coal.) Even if some reactors resume in the summer, French nuclear output will be 25 percent lower than usual this winter — with alarming consequences.

“If you have power plants that are operating well below capacity, we will either have to go to blackouts or revert to carbon-emitting energy, which is coal or natural gas,” said Thierry Bros, an energy expert and professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies.
...
TLDR: During Coronavirus, maintenance was deferred which now has to be done (taking 16 out of 56 offline). In addition, they found corrosion in one type of reactor, taking another dozen offline. Finally, some reactors can't operate at capacity, because of drought and heat lowering water levels and raising water temperatures enough that piping in additional heat from the reactors would raise water temperatures in the rivers too high.

Since that article the French government has already announced that they will fully nationalize EDF (currently the government holds 80%).

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


mediaphage posted:

I think energy storage is really going to grow by leaps and bounds over the next fifty. crazy number of approaches. not all of them are going to be any kind of chemical battery.
This is my favorite storage solution. Use the power of gravity! By stacking blocks on top of each other!

Such an easy, obvious, foolproof, scalable, cheap, space-efficient, CO2-free solution*. I wonder why no one else had this extremely feasible idea!
*Note: none of this is true.

They have even already built a scale pilot system starting in 2018, finished in 2020, which is why pictures exist of this system fully loaded*:

*Note: not quite fully loaded.

Since that was already such a winning solution, they've already iterated on this excellent solution, by replacing the speed limiting usage of the 4 cranes and the slightly difficult and dangerous stacking of large amounts of blocks, with a system of elevators:


This makes switching from coal plants to cool renewable generation with storage a simple three step process:

Bing, bong, boom!

So easy and simple!

Better invest in this extremely serious and quickly growing company before its too late. It is listed on the New York stock exchange after a completely serious and open merge with a SPAC in February. Starting at only $9.39 it quickly reached a high of $21.64 in April!
Please ignore that is has since lost 70% of its value and is currently trading at $6.63

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jul 20, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


So are we just completely ignoring the stated long-term mass storage solution being favored and pushed by the EU as a whole, every (western) European country individually, and also many other states on the periphery of Europe?

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Potato Salad posted:

Completely ignoring? No, absolutely not. Battery baseload is an extraordinarily responsive technology and it's going to be an important component of solutions long term.
That is not the solution being pushed.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Potato Salad posted:

Reread the thread, I guess.

It has been restated over and over and over that this is exactly the solution being offered--a diverse portfolio couched heavily on nuclear base load and incorporating storage technologies like pumped hydro and grid scale battery installation and heavy investment in renewables.
Here, let me help you:

"REPowerEU Plan posted:

...
REPowerEU is about rapidly reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels by fast forwarding the clean transition and joining forces to achieve a more resilient energy system and a true Energy Union.

We can significantly reduce our dependency on Russian fossil fuels already this year, and accelerate the energy transition. Building on the Fit for 55 package of proposals and completing the actions on energy security of supply and storage, this REPowerEU plan puts forward an additional set of actions to 3 :
·save energy;
·diversify supplies;
·quickly substitute fossil fuels by accelerating Europe’s clean energy transition;
·smartly combine investments and reforms.
...
They also require coordination between action on the demand side, to reduce energy consumption and transform industrial processes to replace gas, oil and coal with renewable electricity and fossil-free hydrogen, with action on the supply side to create the capacity and framework to roll out and produce renewable.
...
The REPowerEU plan cannot work without a fast implementation of all Fit for 55 proposals and higher targets for renewables and energy efficiency. In the new reality, the EU’s gas consumption will reduce at a faster pace, limiting the role of gas as a transitional fuel. However, shifting away from Russian fossil fuels will also require targeted investments for security of supply in gas infrastructure and very limited changes to oil infrastructure alongside large-scale investments in the electricity grid and an EU-wide hydrogen backbone.
...
Accelerating hydrogen

Renewable hydrogen will be key to replace natural gas, coal and oil in hard-to-decarbonise industries and transport. REPowerEU sets a target of 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen production and 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen imports by 2030. The Commission:
...
Accelerated efforts are needed to deploy hydrogen infrastructure for producing, importing and transporting 20 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2030. Cross-border hydrogen infrastructure is still in its infancy, but the basis for planning and development has already been set by the inclusion of hydrogen infrastructure in the revised trans-European networks for energy. Total investment needs for key hydrogen infrastructure categories are estimated to be in the range of EUR 28 – 38 billion for EU-internal pipelines and 6 - 11 billion for storage.

To facilitate the import of up to 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen, the Commission will support the development of three major hydrogen import corridors via the Mediterranean, the North Sea area and, as soon as conditions allow, with Ukraine. Green Hydrogen Partnerships will facilitate the imports of green hydrogen while supporting the decarbonisation in the partner countries. Other forms of fossil-free hydrogen, notably nuclear-based, also play a role in substituting natural gas (see map).
...
To support hydrogen uptake and electrification in industrial sectors, the Commission:

·will roll out carbon contracts for difference and dedicated REPowerEU windows under the Innovation Fund to support a full switch of the existing hydrogen production in industrial processes from natural gas to renewables and the transition to hydrogen-based production processes in new industrial sectors, such as steel production 17 ;
...

Kaal posted:

Are you some sort of hydrogen fan? Certainly that's being pushed more than any alternative. Explain what you mean rather than being arch and cryptic.
To be honest, I'm not too versed in all the subtleties of green hydrogen. However, I find it interesting that one of the backbones of the stated EU long term storage plans was apparently not even worth mentioning as a possibility. I mean, maybe there are problems with it, but not even mentioning it at all as a possible alternative seems quite arrogant when there are literal billions being thrown into it by governments and large corporations from a diverse field of sectors in order to quickly push its development as a viable storage solution.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


CommieGIR posted:

The inverse being true: There is little evidence that battery deployments will ever meet or outpace our energy demand, so that also seems like a dead end. Might as well give up now, because we wouldn't want to invest in long term projects regardless of the real, proven benefit.
Obviously, energy storage is still a growing market. I can't imagine the energy demand growing faster than this:

Source
Obviously at some point that will slow down, but we don't know at what rate of new storage that will be.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jul 21, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Phanatic posted:

It's not a thing. Hydrogen comes from steam reformation of natural gas.
It is currently not much of a thing.

quote:

But in no case is it a method of generating power.
Umm, we are talking about using green hydrogen as a storage solution. Not as a free energy solution.

quote:

If you had abundant nuclear power, you could get it from cracking seawater. If you have abundant renewables, you could use hydrogen to load-shift, cracking seawater into hydrogen when the wind blows and burning the hydrogen when the wind doesn't.
Thank you. That is exactly the plan.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Kaal posted:

Green hydrogen isn't the plan, the plan is to rebrand Russian fossil gas as "clean energy". Europe is not even close to being able to supply its current electricity needs with renewables, much less electrify its transportation, heating, and industry, then start creating green hydrogen at 30% efficiency. On the other hand, there's a rainbow of "transitional hydrogen types" available from gas, oil, and coal that the fossil fuel companies are itching to sell (and collect carbon subsidies on like biomass). It's greenwashing, pure and simple. There is an absolute ton of this thread dedicated to the rise and fall of hydrogen over the last 10 years.
The plan is clean hydrogen, defined as hydrogen created via electrolysis with renewable energy. Since this doesn't exist yet, some transitional developments (including carbon capture, which I am extremely skeptical about) are being pushed as well. But the end goal is clean hydrogen. This is clear and open and publicly stated policy by the EU, with significant funds being invested into it.

quote:

EU Hydrogen Strategy (July 2020)

Introduction – Why we need a strategic road map for hydrogen

Hydrogen is enjoying a renewed and rapidly growing attention in Europe and around the world. Hydrogen can be used as a feedstock, a fuel or an energy carrier and storage, and has many possible applications across industry, transport, power and buildings sectors. Most importantly, it does not emit CO2 and almost no air pollution when used. It thus offers a solution to decarbonise industrial processes and economic sectors where reducing carbon emissions is both urgent and hard to achieve. All this makes hydrogen essential to support the EU’s commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and for the global effort to implement the Paris Agreement while working towards zero pollution.

Yet, today, hydrogen represents a modest fraction of the global and EU energy mix, and is still largely produced from fossil fuels, notably from natural gas or from coal, resulting in the release of 70 to 100 million tonnes CO2 annually in the EU. For hydrogen to contribute to climate neutrality, it needs to achieve a far larger scale and its production must become fully decarbonised.
...
In order to implement the ambition of the European Green Deal 14 and building on the Commission’s New Industrial Strategy for Europe 15 and its recovery plan 16 , this Communication sets out a vision of how the EU can turn clean hydrogen into a viable solution to decarbonise different sectors over time, installing at least 6 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers in the EU by 2024 and 40 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers by 2030. This Communication identifies the challenges to overcome, lays out the levers that the EU can mobilise and presents a roadmap of actions for the coming years.
...
The priority for the EU is to develop renewable hydrogen, produced using mainly wind and solar energy. Renewable hydrogen is the most compatible option with the EU’s climate neutrality and zero pollution goal in the long term and the most coherent with an integrated energy system. The choice for renewable hydrogen builds on European industrial strength in electrolyser production, will create new jobs and economic growth within the EU and support a cost-effective integrated energy system. On the way to 2050, renewable hydrogen should progressively be deployed at large scale alongside the roll-out of new renewable power generation, as technology matures and the costs of its production technologies decrease. This process must be initiated now.
...
In the first phase, from 2020 up to 2024, the strategic objective is to install at least 6 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers in the EU and the production of up to 1 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen 28 , to decarbonise existing hydrogen production, e.g. in the chemical sector and facilitating take up of hydrogen consumption in new end-use applications such as other industrial processes and possibly in heavy-duty transport.
...
In a second phase, from 2025 to 2030, hydrogen needs to become an intrinsic part of an integrated energy system with a strategic objective to install at least 40 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers by 2030 and the production of up to 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen in the EU 29 .
...
In a third phase, from 2030 onwards and towards 2050, renewable hydrogen technologies should reach maturity and be deployed at large scale to reach all hard-to-decarbonise sectors where other alternatives might not be feasible or have higher costs.

In this phase, renewable electricity production needs to massively increase as about a quarter 32 of renewable electricity might be used for renewable hydrogen production by 2050.
You might think some of that infeasible and be skeptical about it, but it doesn't change that it is stated policy by the EU.

Kaal posted:

In 1985, 35.9% of global electricity came from low-carbon sources. By 2021, that had skyrocketed up to 38.26%. If we're judging the future by how well we're doing, then we'll reach our 2040 net zero goal by approximately 2964.

https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20almost%20two%2Dthirds,and%20nuclear%20energy%20for%2010.4%25.
I'm sure China constructing an insane amount of coal power plants had nothing to do with that.

CommieGIR posted:

That is wholly insufficient, again, we generate and consume hundred of terrawatts hours of just electricity a year.

You are talking about adding a couple hundred gigawatts of storages. That's not enough in any sense of the term.
Well, that is why most "serious" organizations are betting heavily on hydrogen generation for medium and long-term storage of energy.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Kaal posted:

Ultimately, I think there's little doubt that the same group of fossil fuel lobbyists that created Germany's failed Energiewende policies also promoted the "clean hydrogen" dream. The intent is clearly to hook Europe on Russian gas the same way that Germany is, with the rather empty promise that it will some day become low-carbon. But just as Germany's Putin-whispering was irresponsible foreign policy, converting all of Europe to fossil gas is irresponsible climate policy.
You do realize that just recently a new plan was released by the EU with the explicit goal of becoming independent of Russian gas as quickly as possible? You do have some kind of proof that that is all a lie and they instead want to increase reliance on the country waging an offensive war and using the current reliance on it for blackmail?

As for that article: Widespread electrification and efficiency gains have been part of any push to reach high penetration of renewables. Of course it would be infeasible to replace all gas 1:1 with green hydrogen. Green hydrogen is supposed to be used where no other possibility is likely with regards to energy density, etc. So things like certain industrial processes, planes, large ships, longer term storage, etc. Also, it has long been a part of the EU‘s outlook that energy imports will continue to be necessary. Which is why there are constant talks with other countries around Europe with regards to developing green hydrogen infrastructure.

CommieGIR posted:

Then comes the part where they only pretend to do part 2 and you get Blue Hydrogen....

...which is what we already do.
Luckily plans, technology, etc continue to develop. Just because something failed or didn’t happen in the past doesn’t mean it will never happen. The fact is that green hydrogen is a central part of the EU plan to reach net zero by 2050.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Jul 22, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Wibla posted:

I should have been clearer in my previous post, I am referring to mixing in hydrogen from electrolysis in this instance, there would be no point in making hydrogen from natural gas and then mixing that back into the natural gas lines going out to consumers :cripes:

E: Seems this method has issues, so we'll see what actually happens with it.

There's also this research project that seems very promising to generate hydrogen from natural gas with direct CO2 capture, I think I've mentioned it before.
Several plants in the multi-MW range exist in Germany that are producing hydrogen or methane via renewable electricity and feeding it into the normal natural gas infrastructure. Way more capacity is needed, but it is working on an industrial scale.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Aug 21, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Apparently it wasn't too expensive, as it has already been invented and the first commercial sites have been running for several years already. The advantage of power to gas (whether hydrogen, or even more so methane) is that the infrastructure to store and use it already exists.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


His Divine Shadow posted:

If it grows locally and harvested in quantities that are sustainable sure. Something tells me that since it's the germans, they'l probably import it from abroad in quantities that are anything but and probably fell some old growth forests while they're at it.

The vast majority of wood used for heating (especially pellets) is sourced from production scrap/sawdust. Old growth forests are not being razed just to produce firewood.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Phanatic posted:

That’s just false.

First, people aren’t burning pellets in their homes, they’re burning logs.

Seconds,

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/europe-burns-controversial-renewable-energy-trees-from-us
Ok, I mixed up some things. In Germany, more than 90% of pellets are sourced from scrap wood/production leftovers/sawdust. However, as you noted, the vast majority of wood for heating is with lots and other cut wood. I tried to find some statistics as to the source of that wood, but couldn't find any concrete percentages, just mentions that most wood is sourced regionally. However, the total imports of wood for burning into Germany is small and shrinking (comparing it to the total used for heating, it seems to be at most a few percent of the total, and Germany also exports wood).

The article you posted about wood being exported for heating was about wood from South Carolina being exported to the UK.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


So, the stress test with various grid operators in Germany has finished. As a result, one of the last three nuclear power plants in Germany will be shut down at the end of the year as planned. The other two will be put into standby until April 2023, in order to be available as an emergency reserve.

Article:
Germany to delay phase-out of nuclear plants to shore up energy security

quote:

Last two working plants were due to be mothballed, but will be used as emergency reserve into 2023 after Russia cuts off gas

Germany is to temporarily halt the phasing-out of two nuclear power plants in an effort to shore up energy security after Russia cut supplies of gas to Europe’s largest economy.

The economy minister, Robert Habeck, announced on Monday that the power plants, Neckarwestheim in Baden Württemberg and Isar 2 in Bavaria, are to be kept running longer than planned in order to be used as an emergency reserve until the middle of next year.

Habeck said that after a stress test carried out with four grid operators, considered worst-case scenarios, they had come to the conclusion that “hourly crisis-like situations in the electricity supply system during winter 22/23, while very unlikely, cannot be fully ruled out”.

He insisted that Germany had “very high supply security” and that the two nuclear plants should remain “on standby until mid-April 2023, in order, if necessary, to provide an additional contribution to the electricity grid in southern Germany”.

The nuclear power plants would be available for operation, and fully staffed, but only on standby and would not produce electricity unless it was deemed necessary.

He insisted that Germany would continue to stick by its plans – regulated by law – to withdraw from nuclear power.

The plants were due to be mothballed by the end of December, the last of Germany’s nuclear power plants to cease working, after a dramatic 2011 decision by Angela Merkel, the then chancellor, in reaction to the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan.

The extraordinary upending of energy markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has however led to a dramatic rethink.

Power bills across the continent have been soaring in light of dwindling supplies, putting households and businesses under extreme pressure as winter approaches.

The sense of urgency increased when Russia failed to turn on the fifth and last functioning turbine on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which had carried gas from Russia via the Baltic Sea to Germany. Moscow cited faults on the line, which it said were linked to the sanctions imposed on it.

Discussions on extending the lifetime of the plants have triggered a heated debate in Germany, where nuclear power has been a source of controversy for decades. An announcement by Habeck, a leading figure in the anti-nuclear Green party, on restarting the plants would once have been unthinkable, but the party has come under increasing pressure, especially from its coalition partner, the pro-business FDP, to pause the phase-out.

Many in the FDP hope that today’s announcement may lead to a complete rethink on the phase-out policy, arguing that nuclear power would help Germany achieve its zero-carbon emission goals sooner, as well as helping to secure long-term energy security. The Green party has rejected this position.

“In the winter, our towns and cities will in part be darker because of the fact we have to save electricity. In this situation we should not forgo safer and climate-friendly ways of producing electricity such as nuclear power. This requires more than just extending their operation,” said finance minister Christian Lindner, who is head of the FDP.

Already Germany had been forced to restart mothballed coal-fired power plants, considered the most environmentally damaging source of fuel, which Habeck has stressed was a temporary and painful but necessary measure. So far polls show that the majority of Germans are understanding of the need to at least temporarily revert to nuclear power, given the urgency of the situation, even if they don’t like it.

Habeck has also been trying to fill Germany’s gas storage facilities, using supplies from Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands. Despite Russia’s total switch-off, storage levels stood at just under 86% on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said on Monday that the failure to resume supplies from Nord Stream 1 after the impromptu maintenance work was owing to “problems with pumping gas [that] arose due to sanctions that were imposed against our country”.

Extending the lifetime of the plants is, though, not expected to boost Germany’s energy supplies by much. Habeck has said they make up just 2% of Germany’s electricity output.

He had repeatedly ruled out resurrecting the plants, while chancellor Olaf Scholz had said it “could make sense”.

Scholz unveiled a new series of inflation relief measures on Sunday, amounting to 65bn euros and encompassing everything from a rise in child support to assistance in housing benefit to cover high energy bills.

Groups and political parties of the far left and far right have pledged an autumn of protests against higher living costs, the first of which is due to kick off in the eastern city of Leipzig on Monday evening.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


mobby_6kl posted:

Hmm, the 15TWh figure sounds familiar...



(France and Germany have ~similar consumption)
If only there was a way to store a huge amount of energy in chemical form. Even better would be some way to move it around in chemical form for large distances. Even better than that would be if that infrastructure would already exist.

https://fsr.eui.eu/the-role-of-gas-storage/ posted:

The EU-27 gas storage capacity amounts to 1147 TWh across 18 Member States
(Germany has roughly 220 TWh)
Now if only there were a way to generate that gas from electricity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-to-gas
Oh right.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Once again the Greens in Germany show that they can put practicality ahead of ideology:

Germany plans to keep 2 nuclear power plants in operation

quote:

Germany will keep two of its remaining three nuclear plants on standby until at least April 2023, as the country also secures other alternative energy supplies to make it through winter.

Germany will keep two of its remaining three nuclear power plants running until at least April, Germany Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday.

Habeck said the two nuclear reactors located in the southern states of the country, Isar 2 in Bavaria, and Neckarwestheim in Baden-Württemberg, would continue running until mid-April.

Officials in Germany earlier this month said they would stick to their plans of shutting nuclear plants by end of this year, but would keep the option of reactivating them in case of asevere energy crunch.

Germany shut down three nuclear reactors in 2021, and shutting the remaining three would officially mark the end of the nuclear phase-out for domestic energy production that had first begun under former Chancellor Angela Merkel's rule.

What did Habeck say?

"The operators will now make all the preparations needed for the southern German nuclear power plants to produce electricity in winter and beyond the end of the year, naturally in compliance with safety regulations," Habeck said.

Habeck said they would still need to make a decision about extending the lifespan of the power plants beyond April, and that decision would be dependent on the nuclear power plant situation in France.

"Today, I have to say that the data from France suggests that we will then call up and use the reserve," Habeck said.

France relies heavily on nuclear power to meet its electricity needs, but its nuclear fleet, the largest in Europe, has come under scrutiny lately.

A great deal of repair work at nuclear power stations have taken many of its nuclear reactors offline, and sent France's nuclear output to a record a 30-year low, exacerabting Europe's energy crisis.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


His Divine Shadow posted:

Edit:
BTW, anyone here know how german natgas breaks up into home heating / electricity production?
This is the best overview I've found (from 2021)

15% is public electricity generation + 6% electricity generation by industry. 30% is home heating.

Translations:
Erdgasverbrauch: Natural Gas Usage
(Nicht)-Geschätzte Kunden: (Not) Protestes übers.
Öffentliche Wärmeerzeugung: Piblic Heating
Haushalte: Households
GHD: Commercial
Öffentliche Stromerzeugung: Public Electricity Generation
Industrie: Industry
Endenergie: End Energy aka Heat
Stofflich: Material
Stromerzeugung: Electricity Generation
Raffinerien: Refineries
Sonstiges: Other

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Oct 5, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


VictualSquid posted:

If you interpret silence_kit's recent posts as 100% renewables then I feel justified in interpreting a lot of posts here as 100% nuclear.

The german situation is more complex. I would say that in most cases groups arguing for 100% renewable mostly were composed of people who consider fossil gas to be "renewable". And the spending decisions imply that too if you look at them instead of non-binding statements of intend.
.
With that position becoming unpopular this year, there is a pretty massive realignment going on. And the reaction to the green party compromising on the nuclear power extensions implied to me that the pro-nuclear internal fraction is larger then anybody expected (also larger then it was before DL collapsed).
And I personally think that is the most productive space for pro-nuclear activism here. That is making sure that the pro-gas inner party gets replaced by a pro-nuclear fraction instead of the degrowth fraction.
The German position is very clearly 100% renewables with power to gas as the storage solution. That is also the situation with a lot of other states in the EU. There are a few countries that also see nuclear power in the mix and some that want coal or natural gas, but otherwise the goal is clearly renewables + storage.

After huge gas price increases and a massive campaign about possible energy shortages that could supposedly be averted through delaying the shutdown of the last three nuclear power plants, there was large support for having them not shut down yet. There was also an associated increase of support for building new ones, but still only a minority. Politically it is still impossible, and will stay so until the next federal elections in 2025. By that time all the nukes will be decommissioned and I would be very surprised if the energy situation at that point would still be in such a delicate state that the nuclear lobby will gain a lot of traction in the public sphere.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Electric Wrigglies posted:

"Renewables alone" is also in the same boat (another 20 years and the problems will be solved) since the 90's. In the meantime, the tech has been incremental. Things have gotten a bit cheaper here and there and windmills are a lot larger and better placed but nothing that drastically changes multi-day or seasonal storage issues or intermittency. In Australia, bigger gains have likely been achieved by getting mum and dads to install overpriced generation on rooftops out of their own pockets (sometimes subsidized by government/others) than all the advances in renewables tech advances combined.

I think that 90% and 70% cost reduction within the last 10 years alone is a bit more than just getting a bit cheaper here and there. It suggests that renewables are very definitely in an extremely different situation in comparison to 30 years ago.


In addition, the installed capacity per year of solar power is already massively increasing.


And so is wind.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Nov 29, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


I‘m simply objecting to the statement that renewable energy is in the same boat as nuclear energy with regards to addressing its problems in the last thirty years. Solar power costs, for example, are a tenth of what they were ten years ago and the yearly capacity addition are ten times what they were ten years ago.

That‘s the kind of change that, for example, makes previously uneconomic storage solutions - like power to gas - a lot more viable. Which actually could make it possible to heat Toronto through the winter.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Nov 29, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


cat botherer posted:

Random thought: Have there been any proposals to use a stirling engine or something to partially recover energy used in liquefying hydrogen, as like some kind of combined-cycle deal?
Hydrogen (and natural gas) storage in the huge scales required is done and planned as a compressed gas, not as a liquid.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Salt cavern storage is compressed hydrogen and mentioned in both your sources.

Natural gas pipelines and storage tanks can be (and are) filled with hydrogen up to a certain percentage. That percentage is currently relatively low (a few percent), but it is apparently possible to increase it to 50 or so percent relatively easily. All of that is compressed gas.

Germany‘s natural gas infrastructure, as an example, provides storage for hundreds of TWh of energy for compressed natural gas. Converting that to compressed green hydrogen (or methane from CO2 + green hydrogen) would mean that physical storage is not a problem - being able to economically and efficiently fill that storage is the problem.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Bedshaped posted:

Liquid or gas hydrogen is definitely not an effective storage option due to the inherent low energy density and challenges in storage.

Hydrogen is much better suited as a feedstock to produce something like methanol that is liquid at room temperature, utilizes captured carbon and is both safer and better understood for storage.
The density is not really a problem. Underground storage, pipelines, existing storage tanks right now already provide enough space for hundreds of TWh of storage.

Cost, efficiency, scale for converting back and forth are the problem.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


His Divine Shadow posted:

Installed capacity or actual generation?
Actual generation. Installed capacity is already larger.

Renewables = Hydro + Wind + Solar + Bio

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Dec 12, 2022

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


At how many are they now? And how much of capacity? Another article mentioned that they are now at the highest level since March, but didn't say anything about how far away they are from normal levels.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


His Divine Shadow posted:

Germans angry and dissapointed at getting what they voted for, google translated.

Oh dear, oh well, so sad.
That article is disingenuous in several aspects: the destruction of Lützerath has been planned for a long time already - it has nothing to do with the increased coal use. The village is empty except for protesters. The final agreement that was made leading to the destruction of Lützerath also saved several other villages that were supposed to be destroyed, sped up the end of coal in that region by 8 years, and half of the coal that was already allowed to be extracted will not be extracted.
In exchange for all of that, more coal will be extracted in the time range up to 2030 (but still overall less than had been agreed to in the last agreement).

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Bedshaped posted:

Does anyone think CCS and flue gas capture is a reasonable approach for the concrete or steelmaking (or some other process that can't be electrified) industries?
Maybe? The better approach is to find alternative approaches. Thyssenkrupp Krupp for example is working on producing steel with hydrogen instead of coke.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


mobby_6kl posted:

Probably not news news if anyone's been following, but Germany is going to order 25GW worth of new gas plants: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-use-tenders-build-25-gigawatts-new-gas-power-plants-2030-econ-min

Basically this would replace the capacity that is currently generated with coal. Which is a good thing, I guess, though I'm a bit concerned where that gas is going to come from now.
The plan is at first LNG and later green hydrogen. I expect that this is part of the plan to close all coal plants by 2030 (instead of 2038).

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Somaen posted:

Are there any good articles or discussion on the previous pages re:hydrogen? I think this thread doesn't talk about it while it's in the news constantly, presented as the future with a lot of backing from European states. One particular claim that's odd is the EU wanting to use the current gas pipes for hydrogen in the future which seems unreasonable, isn't hydrogen an order of magnitude or two leakier than natural gas?
I was involved in two discussion in this thread about green hydrogen storage starting here:
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3505076&pagenumber=290&perpage=40#post525000419
And here (it takes several posts to go into storage and using existing natural gas infrastructure)
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3505076&pagenumber=306&perpage=40#post528051319

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DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Cool graph - where is it from?

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