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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I figure Clinton runs because nobody in Washington could turn down such a great shot at becoming President.

Is there any chance Deval Patrick goes for John Kerry's Senate seat?

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



marchantia posted:

Dems are notably lacking any Latino candidates from what I can see...interesting. Still waiting for some moderate democrat from texas to come gently caress up the electoral math something fierce.
Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa might still think he can run for President, but unless one of the Castros catches fire or gets a nice appointment I think VP is the limit for any of the Latino Dems.

The middle of the decade had some decent prospects but Bill Richardson fell apart and Ken Salazar is not a national level campaigner.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



TyroneGoldstein posted:

it basically states that commercial banks Canton gauge in speculative trading that's for pride Terry.
I think there's some auto correct going on here but I don't know which part.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Assuming Biden is not running, I don't think the average Obama bundler or supporter has much animus after seeing Hillary leading the State Dept. and Bill's White House staff filling out a good portion of the executive branch.

The anti-Hillary candidate will be a doomed challenger from the left who might get lucky and become VP.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Y-Hat posted:

Yes he is. Also they're not married. That's fine for you and me, but that might not fly in Middle America.

I'm basically running on an "anybody but Cuomo" platform. Somebody sell me on Deval Patrick because he looks like the main challenger.
- Similar biography will create confusion with Obama 50 years from now. (raised by single mom, south side of Chicago, Harvard Law)
- Does not associate with Sandra Lee

Policy stuff that is nice but won't go anywhere:
- For gun control
- Against death penalty

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Apparently he was facing foreclosure. It doesn't help, but it probably isn't a disqualifier. There were also some plane tickets he billed to the state but he can easily pay it back and make that issue go away.

mr. unhsib posted:

I honestly don't think Michelle has presidential ambitions. I could see her going for Illinois governor though.
Please don't accuse the First Lady of being a federal criminal.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



HereticMIND posted:

As a Marylander, I don't know what to feel when I see Gov. O'Malley's name on the list for potential candidates for the Democratic ticket.

I can see Sen. Benjamin Cardin in the Democratic primaries for sure, but not so much Gov. O'Malley. Sure, Question 6 being voted into state law recently happened while he was at the helm, and he approved a similar bill earlier this year back in March, but that doesn't mean that he should be inside the Oval Office.


Now that I think about it, I don't really like the idea of O'Malley being in White House.
A bill so similar, you might say Question 6 was a direct referendum on it.

I don't think O'Malley has a real chance unless Biden and Clinton retire and he gets the Clinton endorsement.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



point of return posted:

Isn't 30% enough depending on the competition, since the Republican primaries are winner-takes-all?
Wikipedia shows ~20 states were proportional this year.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Teddybear posted:

Boy, I hope that Christie goes scorched earth with the extremist wing of the GOP. He's the least reprehensible Republican right now.
He vetoed a good samaritan law that protected people who call 911 after witnessing an overdose because it might let drug dealers "off the hook."

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



e: Barack Obama campaigned on and called DOMA unconstitutional from the Oval Office in 2009. The Democratic Party platform moved forward on marriage, to match his position, both times he ran for President. The evolution stuff was dumb but it never had a singular effect even slightly equivalent to a veto.

notthegoatseguy posted:

I really don't see vetoing a same-sex marriage bill as a political deal breaker unless you're running as a Democrat in a primary. While approval for same-sex marriage is trending up, the most common type of support is something like Biden spoke about : they're "comfortable" with it. They probably aren't going to be a huge pro-gay plank of the DNC in 2016 (I'd be extremely surprised if they put support for ENDA in, for example, something Obama has been keeping at arm's length as DADT repeal took affect and same-sex marriage is being fought in the courts and state level politics)
Did you mean to say Republicans won't have a pro-gay plank in 2016?

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Nov 22, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



For Americans Elect 2016?

The Democratic Party has a poo poo ton of donors etc. who will not tolerate an ex-Republican on the ticket.

e: Now that he isn't a Republican is it ok for the media to speculate that he's gay? I'm gonna go email NPR to ask.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



jeffersonlives posted:

Like Hillary Clinton?
I'll concede the Kerry/McCain embarrassment, but comparing Hillary's career in GOP politics to a former AG and Governor of Florida is a bit much.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Two primaries for every region allows more fluidity in the campaign.

February: Pennsylvania, half of Northeast.
March: New York, other half of Northeast.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



naysayer posted:

Women probably generally aren't as good a choice for the executive office as men are. They still don't have the capacity for as much sway as men do, at least when interacting with a lot of countries in the second and third world.
I agree, but females don't need that much sway to do a better job than going on apology tours. :mrapig:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I believe the HI44 founder was a big Perot supporter or something other than a loyal Dem who really really loved Hillary.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



serewit posted:

Lucky, all I can remember is the breathless media coverage of the PUMAs long after the point where it was obvious Obama had won the primary.
We all knew who was winning that election. PUMAs made for better TV during the lull between the primary and Palin showing up.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I wonder if that was placed by Napolitano or someone trying to puff up the weak shortlist of women if Hillary doesn't run.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I forgot about Gillibrand.

Am I missing something about Klobuchar? Senator from Minnesota doesn't seem like a particularly good place to run from other than being next to Iowa.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



monoceros4 posted:

Screw that, I want him on the Supreme Court, so even if a Republican got elected President down the road they'd still have to deal with a Clinton in Washington.
You do not want to waste a seat on an old man with heart problems.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Vivek posted:

exactly what the GOP is looking for right now...religious to the point of not believing in evolution...kind of Sarah Palin-y...has no political experience
:allears:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Majestic posted:

Well that's certainly a thing. I guess I don't know who this Christian Heinze character is but it doesn't do wonders for my confidence in his analysis.
I don't think arguing over the definition of liberal governance really counters his general point.

I think he's too high on Jindal and too low on Pence and Santorum. I just don't like Jindal. I don't think the GOP primary voters will immediately settle for less and here is room for someone with a more conservative record than Rubio. They shouldn't win, but they'll have their moment in the sun and it's not impossible.

e: I also think he's wrong about Christie moving left in the future. I think the state legislature will keep sending him bills his has to veto to win a Presidential primary.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 09:01 on Feb 18, 2013

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



mcmagic posted:

They are pretty much College Republican/Breitards who happen to be gay and feel like talking about it once a year or so before they go back to supporting candidates who demagogue them.
Reminder that GOProud took no position of same sex marriage until last month.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Abel Wingnut posted:

Who is that?
Anderson Cooper, obviously.


Should I be worried about the electoral college shenanigans in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
These are very blue states so there's minimal chance of flipping in 2016 and only getting a 60% instead of 100% victory like there was in Virginia.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Obama would have won because the campaign would have adapted to the different system of allocation.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Joementum posted:

Well the 14 year old girls who loved the movie will be able to vote for her!

Also, she's actually drinking the beer. Rubio (the first in this series) didn't. And his interview began with a dissertation on 2pac and Pitbull.

eta: She talks very, very quickly. If you talk that fast you're going to inevitably say something you shouldn't.
What kind of beer?

Elite liberal beer, or crazy right wing Coors?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Why have so many debates?
Do they generate money or is it just free ad time in swing states?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Joementum posted:

They're cheap programming that gets a lot of eyeballs for cable news.
So it's a TV thing and not a party thing.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



If the spending limits aren't a big problem what's the point of moving up the convention?
Dodging the worst part of hurricane season?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



DynamicSloth posted:

Good luck raising a candidate's age as an election issue without seriously offending the largest voting block in the country.
Media will do that for you.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Holding office for a while gives you too much time to create a sensible record which is anathema to primary voters.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Chris Christie is just like Barack Obama!

"We're turning into a paternalistic entitlement society. That will not just bankrupt us financially, it will bankrupt us morally."

"[Ending abortion] is an issue whose time has come."

"I did veto a bill on gay marriage, not on gay rights."

"You, the people in this room [a Koch Brothers seminar], are the modern day patriots who will save this country or let it go by the wayside."

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I don't think Hillary Clinton is in a weaker position today than in 2007.
She doesn't have an obvious weakness like the Iraq War vote and Biden/second person in national polls winning Iowa isn't going to bring in a huge wave of support by proving his viability.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



That sounds about right. Terrible Clinton strategy is a more likely problem than the circumstances of the race being as bad as 2007.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Devour posted:

That said, I hope Joe Biden has the decency to not run in 2016. He's been running for president for 25 years and has failed miserably every time.
I like Joe but this is at least as big an issue as Clinton's awful handlers and any grudges.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Holding on to that Senate seat is worth more than improving the chances of winning 18 electoral votes.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Her mother looked good at 88 for a 2007 campaign ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSlmpIFr2wQ

The Insect Court posted:

Yes, it is Hillary's if she wants it, barring some huge scandal(of the for real type, not the "KENYAN USURPER LAUGHS AS AMERICANS DIE" Fox News chyron type). That doesn't mean she'll "clear the field", politicians are not known for their accurate self-assessments and so there will be people who think they can knock her off. There's also a lot to gain running for the nomination even if you know you've got one in a million odds, it's a massive amount of publicity and can conceivably be leveraged into a spot into the new administration or pole position next time around.
Hillary pushing out Cuomo etc. is going to make someone's career. There is a huge space for a young outsider running against two ~70 year old ex-Senators from the Obama administration. I don't think that background is a real problem but it allows for contrast and running one campaign against two people.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



She's not going to magically win Arkansas but she still has really good numbers with women.
[PDF] Crosstabs

Favorable among women
Fav-Un-Haven't Heard enough
Clinton 59-32-8
Biden 39-38-23

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



jeffersonlives posted:

Eh. Pawlenty's place in the race if it developed into anything was always going to be as the evangelical candidate, and Portman tossed that away when he decided to accept his son's sexual orientation.
Only for marriage. Portman is not sold on the idea his son shouldn't be fired for being gay.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



ufarn posted:

I wasn't really following the 2008 primary much, but can one party's primary affect the other party's similarly to how it can push its own candidates to the right or left like we saw with Romney?
I don't remember anything like that other than the Republicans falling over themselves pledging to be the candidate of change.

e: Everyone viable is indebted to Wall Street and the primary is mostly deciding which person or whose pet issue you like most. If it's O'Malley vs. Cuomo, I'd back the one who talks about appointing judges as a priority.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Jun 5, 2013

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



DynamicSloth posted:

Three things... What? How? Why?
They would bring up Mitt's policies and background as if he was the only other candidate.
Basically they decided Mitt couldn't generate necessary GOP enthusiasm and running against Mr. Burns would be easy.

e: Also they thought he was weird, which is totally a dogwhistle for Mormon and they should be ashamed!

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