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Mantle
May 15, 2004

Grouco posted:

Interesting. My available TFSA contribution room is 31k, and my RRSP available contribution room is ~13k. I'll only be starting with ~6k to invest, and then 500-1500 contributed each month.

98% of my income is taxed at 15%, and I do have about 30k in student tax credits carried forward.

Does it seem like going 100% into the TFSA might be the best bet for now, even if I do catch some tax drag from the withholding tax on dividends? I just wanted to avoid rebalancing into different accounts down the road for tax efficiency, but contributing to the RRSP right now might be even more tax inefficient!

Rule of thumb:

If you expect your income tax to be higher in the future, put money into the TFSA. (The growth won't be taxed in your future higher bracket)
If you expect your income tax to be lower in the future, put money into your RRSP. (Avoid paying high tax now)

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Mantle
May 15, 2004

Saltin posted:

Now that I am earning at the highest marginal rate, I am very aggressive about putting big contributions into my RRSP yearly, because it is so drat efficient and generates a big return.

A big return is bad. If you're going to contribute to RRSPs anyways, how about filling out a T1213 and getting immediate growth from your RRSP contributions instead of waiting until tax time?

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pbg/tf/t1213/README.html

Mantle
May 15, 2004

I agree. The more I learn about RRSPs, the less I like using them before maxing out my TFSA at this stage of my life.

1. You have to maintain a future liabilities sheet with RRSPs-- remember you have to pay SOME tax on that million bucks in there at age 65, whereas your TFSA is what you see is what you get.

2. At age 71 there are forced minimum withdrawals from your RRSP (RRIF), which increase as you age. CRA won't let you hide the money in there forever and sip it out one basic personal amount at a time. These forced withdrawals will probably push your marginal brackets up higher than you want.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Rising rates mean declining bond prices.

Can someone explain the relationship between interest rates and bonds? Shouldn't bonds be worth more of they return more interest?

Also why can interest rates literally not go down? Are they at 0%?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Put a different way, if I told you i knew of someone who could lend you money at 8% and I had an investment that would pay you interest of 10% plus $1,000 5 years from now, how much could you afford to pay before the deal economically didn't make sense? You could afford to pay a price which left you with an 8% return, which net of 8% interest would leave you economically neutral. If I later told you I could now get you money at a 7% interest rate, you could then pay more for the bond, as you would only need to make only 7% on your funds to break even.

How is having the 10% investment relevant in this example? And how do I pay for the 8% investment? It seems like it is not as straightforward as borrowing the money at 8% and buying the 10% investment.

What am I paying for in this case?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

acetcx posted:

If you buy a bond at 8% and a year later interest rates go up to 9% then think about what would happen if you tried to sell your bond. The next buyer could buy your old 8% bond or a new 9% bond so if they were the same price they'd always pick the 9% bond. The market solves this by making your old 8% bond trade for less than face value so that it has an effective 9% interest rate over its remaining duration.

It works the other way around, too. If interest rates go down, existing bonds become more valuable. However, keep in mind that the face value of the bond never changes so the market price of the bond only matters if you're trading bonds, not if you're holding them for their full duration.

So actually trading bonds has nothing to do with the nominal interest rates at the time, and you are actually making and losing money on change in interest rates relative to each other? So if interest rates don't change, no matter if rates are high or low, there is no movement in the bond market? And basically investing in bonds is guessing on whether interest rates are going to go up or down (simplified model, ignoring credit risk)?

Edit: Oh I think I missed something. Does holding the bond actually have intrinsic value as well, i.e. the actual nominal return on the bond?

Mantle fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Mar 30, 2014

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Sneak preview, this bond will be priced at $1,000, equal robots face value, because the coupon and prevailing rates are the same. Numerically:

Price = 50/((1+0.10)^1/2) + 50/((1+0.10)^2/2) + 50/((1+0.10)^3/2) + ... + 50/((1+0.10)^10/2) + 1000/((1+0.10)*10/2)

To decompose that mess, 50 is a semi-annual coupon amount ($1000*10%/2), and there are 10 of these coupon payments. The (1+0.10)^x/2 portion is the discount factor. X is the period number (coupon number), giving you exponents of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, etc up to 5. 1.1^0.5 will give you a discount factor of 5%, meaning your first payment of 50 on June 30, 2015 is worth about $47.5 today. You can do the math for the rest of the coupons, but the principal payment 5 years out is worth approximately $621 today. Add all that up and you get $1,000.

If, for example, rates now increased to 12%, the payments agreed in the bond contract would not change, so it's still a series of payments of 50,50,50,...,1000, but you are now discounting these payments at 12%, meaning they are worth less today. For example, the first coupon would be 50/((1+.12)^1/2) = $47.25 and the principal would be 1000/((1+.12)^10/2) = $567. If you do all the math you will come up with something less than $1,000. Probably around $900, but I'll be hosed if I'm going to do it all on my phone. This is the way in which prevailing interest rates drive bond pricing.

I can't believe you typed up two megaposts on a phone. Just to clarify, is the last term in your Price supposed to be 1000/((1+0.10)^(10/2))?

I plugged the numbers into Wolfram Alpha and I didn't get $1000 on the button. Why is that? https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/...%2810%2F2%29%29

Anyways, if I bought a bond for $1000 as you described, would I actually be receiving the payments of $50 every 6 months + the principal of $1000 at the end of 5 years? So nominally, I would be receiving $1500 over the 5 years, but the present value on January 1 would be $1000 at 10%? And if rates went up to 12% on January 2 after I had entered into the contract at 10%, the present value of my contract would be $938.42? https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/...%2810%2F2%29%29

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Garth Turner posted:

Diversification. Incredibly, 70% of Canadians who own stocks only have Canadian ones. Others own just three or four individual equities. Or they buy a single mutual fund and put it in their TFSA and RRSP and non-registered account. Fail. It’s a volatile world. You need both balance and diversification.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/03/31/real-men-invest/

What's wrong with buying a single mutual fund if the fund itself is diversified? Then I don't have to worry about rebalancing cause the fund does it for me. My investment advisor friend said that he has some clients that have $400k in a single fund Mawer Balanced A which is 60/40 equities/bonds. This sounds reasonable to me for someone who doesn't enjoy being a min/maxer.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

Because mutual funds such as that one are unjustifiably expensive, even if they are optimally diversified (which may be in question with many of these things).

That fund you mentioned has an MER of 0.96%. Its holder is paying $3,840 each and every year for the privilege of owning that asset. By contrast, identical performance could be achieved at a cost of less than half that with TD e-series, and far cheaper still with a portfolio of ETFs.

I can understand tolerating a slightly suboptimal situation in favour of simplicity, but four thousand this year, and the next, and the next... and pretty soon you're talking real money.

edit: And 0.96% is pretty cheap in the grand scheme of things. My favourite whipping boys, the Investor's Group jokers, charge upwards of 2% or even 2.5% in some cases. That seriously adds up over a lifetime of investing.

How is the MER payable? Is it prorated over the year for partial years?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

Because mutual funds such as that one are unjustifiably expensive, even if they are optimally diversified (which may be in question with many of these things).

That fund you mentioned has an MER of 0.96%. Its holder is paying $3,840 each and every year for the privilege of owning that asset. By contrast, identical performance could be achieved at a cost of less than half that with TD e-series, and far cheaper still with a portfolio of ETFs.

I can understand tolerating a slightly suboptimal situation in favour of simplicity, but four thousand this year, and the next, and the next... and pretty soon you're talking real money.

edit: And 0.96% is pretty cheap in the grand scheme of things. My favourite whipping boys, the Investor's Group jokers, charge upwards of 2% or even 2.5% in some cases. That seriously adds up over a lifetime of investing.

I myself do have about $10k in the Mawer Balanced A just trying it out on my friend's recommendation. I get that it is expensive, but if it is outperforming a self balanced portfolio by more than 0.96%, isn't it worth it?

How can I achieve identical performance with a portfolio of ETFs though? I created a fantasy portfolio of the 60/40 Global Couch Potato portfolio and plotted it against the Mawer Balanced A. Is my timeline too short? Also, are the returns for the Mawer fund already accounting for the MER or do I have to calculate that myself?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

tuyop posted:

I think the point is that, 80% of the time if you've read The Four Pillars, it won't outperform an indexed portfolio with the same balance. So you're paying for the privilege of someone else trying to beat the index and failing four out of five years.

I haven't read the Four Pillars yet but I hear about it all the time so I should eventually get to it. Anyways, I keep trying to find a justification for leaving the Mawer fund but from my (admittedly shaky) analysis skills that it is outperforming anything I compare it against, even with the MER.

I even found this analysis from the CCP:

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2011/04/20/how-did-the-couch-potato-stack-up/

How are the CCP model portfolios regarded in this thread?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Grouco posted:

Past performance does not indicate future results.

That's true, but we're talking about 10+ years of outperformance, over both bear and bull markets. Unless I am not reading the numbers right and making the correct comparisons, which is totally possible.

Saltin posted:

The idea is to compare it to some indexes, but because you've got a 60/40 managed fund to compare, it is not apples to apples. If you could compare them properly, conventional wisdom is that the indexes would win, as it's pretty hard to beat them consistently.

Lexicon said I could recreate the fund much cheaper using ETFs. Shouldn't I be comparing the fund to what I could create on my own? Why should I compare it to an index if I wouldn't be putting everything in an index anyways?

Am I right to infer that you suggest I shouldn't be diversified 60/40, regardless of my investment vehicle and that I should be 100% equities because the equities will outperform the 60/40 portfolio in the long run? If so, I think that may be true, but what if one of my goals is to reduce volatility?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

Final point: here's some historical data on CCP's performance: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2013/01/16/updated-couch-potato-report-card/. These numbers are especially respectable given that the 00s have generally been a financial poo poo-show.

These are the numbers to beat - over a sustained period and net of fees.

MrAmazing posted:

To actually test the effectiveness of Mawar at managing investments, you would need to randomly pick from the list of funds they had 10 years ago and see what their performance has been against their metrics.

Lexicon posted:

Great point. They also do tricks like rename and discontinue funds to make historical analysis difficult.

Thanks for all the patient explanation and the pointers. I'll proceed with skepticism and an open mind.

Mantle
May 15, 2004


Hey, I thought it was prudent to get a variety of opinions. =)

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Why aren't you just using a credit Union? Free access to all exchange network ATMs plus all HSBC ATMs. That's a bigger network than any one bank. If you live in BC you can even get free chequing with coast capital savings.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

My advice with forex is to buy the the foreign currency in your home country and home currency in the foreign country, using a currency exchange store, not a bank.

The reason is, in your home country, the currency store wants to get rid of foreign currency and in the foreign country, they want to get rid of your home currency.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

That does seem like reasonable logic, but does it translate to lower rates? It seems that in the latter case at least, you're a fairly captive customer.

Anecdotally, when I last visited the UK from Canada, I changed my CAN to GBP at an Indian currency exchanger in Vancouver at 1.71. The bank rate at that time was 1.70.

The time previous to that, I don't remember the rate I paid in Canada, but I walked all over London trying to find a similar rate when I ran out of GBP and I couldn't find anything even remotely close.

I've never changed back into CAN in a foreign country, so I don't "know" know that it works both ways.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Canadian Couch Potato posted:

Itching to switch

Whenever there’s a new product launch or a fee reduction like this, I get a wave of emails from investors who are itching to sell their current holdings to embrace the new ETFs. (Then they ask if I plan to change the recommendations in my model portfolios.) I remind them to keep cost reductions in perspective: low MERs are wonderful, but small differences are often trivial, especially when weighed against transaction costs.

Say you have a $20,000 holding in the Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap (VCN) and you want to switch to XIC to save 0.07% in management fees. That works out to an annual savings of just $14. If you make two trades at $10 apiece and lose another $10 or $12 on the bid-ask spreads it would take more than two years to break even. If you’re investing in a taxable account and sitting on a capital gain, switching makes even less sense.

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2014/03/25/ishares-cuts-its-fees-to-the-core/

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

Sure

1. Buy things which will yield capital gains or dividends
2. Earn those capital gains or dividends
3. Thanks to it being a TFSA, you don't owe tax on the outcome of step (2)

What, specifically, are you asking? Absurdly broad question

Also, USD assets that yield dividends held in a TFSA are subject to withholding tax so you probably don't want to put them there if your savings strategy lets you put them in your RRSP.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Lexicon posted:

This is correct, but it can be hard to fully ascertain numerically.

One thing I always tell people: if you're shovelling every last cent at the mortgage, quite apart from the likely higher investments returns elsewhere - you almost certainly aren't taking advantage of available tax shelters like the TFSA or RRSP. Ultimately that should be factored into your "expected return on investment" but many people don't.

I'm not sure this it the correct evaluation to make. I think the comparison should be expected increase/decrease in equity over X years for paying mortgage vs saving. Also this being Canada, your mortgage rate is not guaranteed for the entire amortization period so you need to factor in risk of changing interest rates. For example, if you are paying $2000/month towards mortgage and $1500 of that is interest, you probably should pay as much into your mortgage as possible to reduce your exposure to future changes in interest rates. If $1500 of that is going towards principal, you have less exposure to increased interest rates and might have a better return by putting your budget surplus towards savings.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

It seems like you're conflating investment vehicles with investment accounts. The RRSP doesn't have an MER of 2.2%, the investment you are holding IN the RRSP does. You could buy hold that same investment in a TFSA and it would still cost you 2.2%.

I can't give you a detailed plan right now, but one thing you need to be very aware of with registered accounts (i.e. TFSAs and RRSPs), they have restrictions on withdrawals and contribution limits. In particular, if you withdraw your money from your RRSP, the amount you withdraw is considered employment income and is added on top of year earnings in the year of the withdrawal-- therefore it is taxed at the highest marginal rate that you pay for that year. In addition to that, you do not regain the RRSP contribution room you used up when you initially put in the money.

How do you get out of paying 2.2% MER and move it to another institution you say? First convert the investment into cash, and leave it in your RRSP. Then you can move the cash into another RRSP opened at another institution (Questrade, Qtrade, Tangerine, TD, or whatever you decide to use). This transfer must be initiated by the receiving institution in order to avoid triggering a withdrawal from your RRSP, so talk to the receiving institution about how to initiate the transfer. You will also need to pay a transfer out fee from the transferring institution, which sucks. Once the cash is in the new institution's RRSP, then you can buy whatever investment vehicles you want according to your investment strategy.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

cowofwar posted:

I have accumulated ~$35,000 federal and ~$35,000 provincial tuition tax credits. So it looks like I will have a number of years where I can consume my tax credits and not pay any tax.

These credits reduce your taxable income. They are not credits to set off tax owing.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Don't buy a bond fund as they're just as likely to go down as anything else if (for example) there's an indication that rates will start to go up.

Can someone explain why this is the case? I thought rising interest rates would cool down equities and therefore create increased demand for bonds.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Short version, rates up = bond prices down

If this is the case, is it possible for both equities and bonds to go down if interest rates are too high?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Then is it still safe to say that bonds are a hedge against declining equities? I guess the question I have is, if the Canadian economy is going to suck this year and next, Canadian equities are going down, right? But at the same time, if interest rates go up Canadian bonds will go down as well?

Is this something that is likely to happen over the next 2 years?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Wilhelm posted:

Anyone know a good guide to Canadian credit cards or have a recommendation? I'm still rocking my 1000 limit with 1% rebate from when I was a teenager and really should take advantage of air miles etc.

I'll note that I fly somewhat regularly for work which I can pay for with the company card but am allowed to put points/rewards on my own card.

If you like cash back and buy a lot of stuff in foreign currency, I like the Amazon Chase card. No annual fee, no foreign currency exchange (usually 2.5%), 2% cash back spent on Amazon and 1% cash back on everything else. No travel/warranty/price protection benefits though.

For Canadian purchases I use the Capital One Aspire Cash. Basically the same thing except instead of free foreign currency excahnge and 2% cash back, I get warranty and price protection benefits.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Vatek posted:

Yes. Do not withdraw it yourself.

Intrabank transfers may have a fee attached of $100-$250. If you can sell and rebuy your portfolio for less than that, you can consider waiting until the end of 2015 to sell in your old institution, cash out, and rebuy in the new institution. Depends on your value calculation of time/money/risk etc.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Vatek posted:

It did, another $5500. The rumored 10k+ increase did not happen, sadly.

I thought it's yet to be determined since the finance minister is hiding the budget?

Mantle
May 15, 2004


slidebite posted:

Am I on glue thinking the TFSA got bumped up this year or was that just rumored for the next budget?

The increase for 2016 is yet to be determined.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Golluk posted:

It still seems like unless I plan to use all my deduction up next year, it may be better to get less back now, but invest it. Guess it is finally time I do some math.

10k deduction claimed at 21% (10k-40k) rate = 2.1k
10k deduction claimed at 31% (40K-82K) rate = 3.1k

So looking at 3 years, I would need it to grow 14% each year to match waiting to deduct when I'm in the 31% bracket.
Year 1 = 2.4K
Year 2 = 2.7k
Year 3 = 3.1k
Takes about 8% growth each year over a 5 year period.

Of course after doing some more math on when, and how much I'll be in the higher bracket, assuming:
10% raise each year (conservative side of what my manager has planned)
160 hours of OT for the year (very conservative)
Making the max RSP contribution each year (still won't hit the limit for matching)
Using deductions to bring my taxable income down to 40k each year
I'll be right back at 29K of unused deductions at the end of 5 years, which could have been in a TFSA.

Even jumping to 320 hours of OT (half what I did last year) I'll still have 2.5k of deductions left.

How about you contribute the 10k now, grow for 3 years, THEN (assuming you are getting your 10% raise each year) claim the deduction against your income that is taxed at the 31% bracket. This way you get the 3 years of growth (whatever they turn out to be) in addition to the higher deduction.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/22/the-difference-between-an-rrsp-contribution-and-deduction/

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Golluk posted:

I think your assuming I'm asking if I should contribute to the RSP. I'm asking if I should claim the deduction. Either option, that 10k is in an RSP, invested, and growing for 3 years. But do you claim the deduction immediately, get a 2.1K return, invest it in a TFSA for 3 years to also grow, or, do you wait 3 years to claim the deduction on taxable income in the 31% bracket, getting 3.1k, to then put in a TFSA and invest.

Both methods carry uncertainties. How well do the markets do? Do I actually break into the 31% taxable income bracket in 3 years to claim the deduction, depending on overtime, raises, still having a job.

Ah, I got it. Personally I would claim the deduction immediately and get that money in market. If you want to hedge, you can do 50% now and 50% later when you anticipate you will be earning income in the higher bracket.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

cowofwar posted:

MBNA smart cash mastercard (2% cash back gas/groceries) or scotia momentum visa infinite (4% gas/groceries but needs 60k income).

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/best-cashback-credit-cards-1670301/

I prefer the Capital One Aspire Cash to the MBNA smart cash because I don't buy much gas / groceries (cycle / eat out a lot), the Capital One card gives good price protection and warranty benefits and doesn't have a monthly rewards cap like the MBNA card does.

e: Also MBNA cash is only redeemable in increments of $50. Scotia Momentum has a $100 annual fee I think so I didn't consider it.

Mantle fucked around with this message at 07:43 on Mar 1, 2015

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Furcifer posted:

What should I do to maximize my TFSA productivity? I'd like to invest it in something liquid that does not correlate with the markets. Ideally I would like to use to the funds to take advantage of another recession, but i'd also like it to do more than sit as cash.


Thoughts and advice would be appreciated.

You are trying to time the market. Don't.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Furcifer posted:

So your saying is that I should be fully invested in the market always?

Well you haven't really given a timeline for how long you want to invest the money or your risk tolerance, but I would always have the money (e: fully) invested in a balanced portfolio of equity and bond indexes. The balance would be determined by your risk tolerance and timeline.

Mantle fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Mar 9, 2015

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Saltin posted:

TD will do this for you.

Assuming I need to hold my portfolio with TD and I'm not going to move my whole portfolio over to TD so I can do this... Any other options?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

slidebite posted:

Anyone offer a no - fee checking account at a brick and mortar bank anymore?

Min balance OK and only maybe a couple checks a year, mostly for payroll and e paying bills. We already deal with pcf but Mrs. Slidebite wants the ability to go to a branch if necessary.

Coast capital savings, although technically not a bank.

If you need only a few cheques, you can get 12 temporary ones for $2 instead of ordering permanent ones. Banks won't do that for you.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

lol internet. posted:

drat, I already submitted my tax and I received another RRSP receipt today saying for the taxation year 2014, but months Jan-Feb 2015 I put in 1170.

I am assuming I should amend my tax for 2014 to add this as the money is already in the RRSP account? Or can I just claim it next year?

I didn't realize this was coming but now that I think about it, it makes sense as I am on a company plan which adds bi-monthly.

I would just claim it next year cause I don't like the CRA looking at my returns more than they have to.

Baronjutter posted:

So I only got tax poo poo for my non TSFA investments. No where on any of my taxes (yay simpletax it was fun!) did I make ANY mention of my TFSA. Did I do things right or am I going to jail?

It's normal not to receive any slips for your registered TFSA account. What you should do to be prudent is log into your CRA Myaccount and verify the numbers that your TFSA financial institution reported to CRA match your TFSA transaction records.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Ah I read it as he had already reported the contribution. Either way he will have to make an adjustment.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Olive Branch posted:

How can I tell StudioTax (or the government) that I want to get my RRSP deductions refunded to me and deposited on my account rather than carry it forward? I am a poor goon so I don't earn enough to max out both my RRSP and TFSA, plus the US government wants its cut.

Incidentally, what free tax return software do you all recommend? I've been using StudioTax for the past few years but it can sure be muddled at times.

I don't quite understand your question. However, https://simpletax.ca/ has a cool RRSP calculator that gives you a 1 click calculation on how much of your contributions you need to claim in order to have 0 tax owing. Or you can just claim the entire contribution to maximize your return, if that's what you are asking.

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Mantle
May 15, 2004

Jan posted:

Dredging this up because I'm about to join the e-series bandwagon -- if I'm reading this right, if I transfer both my TFSA and RRSP to a TD Direct investment account and have the minimum balance between my TFSA and RRSP, I won't have any fees? Currently have way less than $15k in my RRSP but I'd still like to move it while I'm at it.

e: Wait, that's for non-registered accounts. Looks like it's still $25k in a single RRSP account. Blah. :argh:

Might it be worth just moving that RRSP to a Tangerine investment account? It's not like that 1.07% MER is going to hurt my whopping $9k.

Keep in mind that if you want to ever purchase something other than a Tangerine investment fund, then you will need to move your money out and incur a transfer fee. Currently it's $100, but hey, $100. It may or may not be reimbursed by your receiving institution.

I decided to consolidate everything in Questrade because of the free ETF purchases. Just waiting for my Tangerine funds to exceed $25,000 so I qualify for reimbursement from Questrade.

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