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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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kiimo posted:

That trade wasn't worth it for Alex Smith. But if you pretend that Marcus Cooper was part of the trade it's a steal.

Pretending is awesome. I like to pretend that Justin Houston was our 1st round pick two years ago and Jon Baldwin was our 3rd rounder.

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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Famous TV Dad posted:

The Chiefs have a really good defensive backs coach.

Al Harris is one of the Chiefs DB coaches!

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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But yeah Emmitt Thomas is a great DB coach, he was like the only coach Reid kept from the previous regime.

Coached Brandon Carr up into what he is, improved on Sean Smith a lot, Eric Berry has finally lived up to his draft hype, even Kendrick Lewis aint bad. Also Cooper of course

Couldn't do much for Stanford Routt

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Smith doesn't seem to have a weak arm particularly, he just struggles with an accurate deep pass. They are often overthrown.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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:lol: like a guy named Blake Bortles has a shot in the NFL

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Nov 14, 2005

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No Butt Stuff posted:

I can't tell if I want this to happen or not...

YES man, you do

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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No Butt Stuff posted:

I keep forgetting that we're getting Maclin. I really want Maclin. And for us to draft Ebron.

Ebron would be cool but I want to see what Travis Kelce can do when healthy, he was supposed to be the hot receiving TE for the Chiefs and I still have hope.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Mike Evans sounds a lot like Jon Baldwin

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Cyprien has played really well this year.



Chiefs should also be in the mix for Clinton-Dix

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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I would really love it if the Chiefs could address the secondary in the 1st round as I am convinced any WR they draft will bust.

Clinton-Dix, Dennard, Ebron, ASJ, Paul Richardson is my wishlist in order

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Hey friends, just popping in to post my wishlist for the #23 pick, ranked by how much I wish for them:

1. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
2. Marquise Lee
3. Eric Ebron
4. Alfonzo Dennard
5. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Call of Cholula posted:

Alfonzo Dennard is going to find new and interesting ways of falling out of the first round this year! (I know you mean Darqueze)

God damnit, I actually thought the Dennards were Alphonze and Alphonzo

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Regnevelc posted:

The worst is that if you put in any celeb the "(celebs name) feet" is always a top option.

....so what

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Beady Quinn's "now im done" Myoplex campaign is what got me interested in building my muscles as a college freshman :)

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Someone's feelings are hurt :(

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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The Raiders are probably as good as the Chiefs right now.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Volkerball posted:

You think the Chiefs are gonna take that big of a step back next year?

I think both the Raiders and Chiefs will be around 8-8 next year.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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bewbies posted:

Uh, alright. Regression only shows correlation so I guess we're ok.

(point being you're probably right that "wins in college" doesn't correlate strongly to success in the NFL but I think it is still worthwhile to take a look at the relationship)

It would be hell trying to build a good regression for QB play (at least an OLS model) because there is so much endogeneity involved, and the observations would not be I.I.D.

I mean, you can already guess what the sign of most of the estimators would be (completion %, TD/Int, Games Started are all positively correlated with NFL success) so the only use for the regression would be to see their magnitude, and those numbers would not be accurate, and hypothesis testing on them would suck due to the endogeneity.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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bewbies posted:

So, I'm doing this thing. I'm populating stats from 30 randomly chosen QBs drafted in the first 4 rounds since 1998.


I would have thought this as well, but so far at least based on an eyeball of the data there doesn't seem to be a lot of overlap. I'm a little more concerned about multicollinearity but I've kept my parameters limited and none really has much do with any others insofar as football is concerned so the output might be alright.

There isn't really a problem if the explanatory variables like games started and TD/INT ratio have correlation, it's just that there are so many undiscovered variables lurking in the error term (injuries, offensive scheme) that would muck things up.


edit: to be honest I am kind of being a pussy, this would be a great and fun thing to do and in undergrad I used NFL data for all econometrics projects, its just that the results won't have very good properties and be very useful. If we spend months and months and get as close as we can then there's probably a chance the resulting model could get TFF hired at footballoutsiders or something

also I don't know if MJBuddy still reads these forums in the offseason but he would be a good source to ask regarding how to do an accurate regression. I don't know much beyond OLS and regression discontinuity models.

Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Apr 21, 2014

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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I went to George Mason University (no football team) and Boston University (no football team), my parents went to KU...so...

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Denver having Dee Ford, Von Miller and Jared Allen...woof

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Alouicious posted:

Alex Smith is 30 in 2 days

Younger than Weeden

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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I want ODell Beckham JR badly guys.....

Also just ignore Parmesean Basil when he is talking about Alex Smith or John Dorsey

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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The only disappointing thing the Chiefs can do is draft Kelvin Benjamin. I'm even more okay with a guard

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Nov 14, 2005

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my Chefs wishlist for their pick (I think its #22)

1. Odell Beckham
1. JFF
2. Teddy Bridgewater
3. Ha-Sean Clinton Dix
4. Brandin Cooks
5. Zach Martin
6. Calvin Pryor

:)

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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It just sucks how expensive Eric Berry is, he's a top-5 pick on those old-school contracts. Trading him for a 2nd and grabbing Calvin Pryor as his replacement wouldn't be a bad move. I do love Eric though

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Nov 14, 2005

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The angle is he is expensive for a box safety. I amend my earlier statement, it would be dumb guys. I even have his jersey and watch all his Adidas commercials on Youtube. I am just a loving miser

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Blitz7x posted:

Jesus christ, Raiders: move back in the draft, pick up literally anyone with the new first pick and with the new second send it for Eric Berry


hire me Oakland

Isn't SS like the lone position of strength on the Raiders?

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Marcel Reese is a better Mike Tolbert, who cares about his roster position

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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Several of my online passwords involve Eric Berry

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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I think the Chiefs have done more good stuff than bad recently so quitting on them now seems unwise...

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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kiimo posted:

I know, I'm just jealous of Seattle because of that defense and Russell. I could never quit the Chiefs, I've been a married battered spouse too long to leave. It's how I know they love me.

My friend the sun will shine on our asses one day, I think it is soon.


vv It has not.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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The Puppy Bowl posted:

Meh. It's hard to name a draft that doesn't produce ten or so premier talents. The strong careers out of Rivers, Manning and Rothelisberger is the most impressive thing.

2009

nm you can probably find 10 talents, just the top 10 sucked.

LeSean McCoy, Brian Orakpo, Jarius Byrd, CM3, Harvin, few others...

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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elite talents such as DeAngelo Hall and Ben Watson :lol:

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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What if KC passed up Bridgewater for, say, Xavier Su'a-Filo

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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excidium posted:

What's worse than a nightmare? Night terror?

I would be happy with Lee, really happy. I am terrified the Chiefs are gonna take an OL. Even if it's a need, fuuuuck man

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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True but guys like Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant have had the dropsies. I think that can be fixed by practice. I want a WR so badly in the first, hell if we grab Marqise Lee and Paul Richardson in the 3rd that would be loving awesome.

So tired of trotting out poo poo like Chris Chambers, Chad Hall, AJ Jenkins. Bowe has never had a real #2 WR next to him.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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You should be pretty happy, yeah. Football and all sports are about entertainment, I'd take Manziel over Alex Smith even if it means a few less wins for my team

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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I have a solid reports coming to me that the Chiefs are going to go with Xavier Su'a-Filo tonight. Laugh and call me a rumor mongering turd but tonight when it happens you will remember me....

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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

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kiimo posted:

Okay I've somehow missed everything involving this giant QB can someone please fill in this ignoramus on the humor of this situation? Is it because the Texans might be trading for a guy that's never done poo poo?

Do you remember how Scott Pioli left New England, came to KC, and doomed us with a trade for Matt Cassel

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