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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Jimmy Johnson is a hall of fame coach so anyone with any basic football knowledge would know who he is. Jeff Kent was an All Star, MVP, and potential Hall of Famer so serious baseball fans would know him. Clifford Robinson is a journeyman NBA player so he's probably not too recognizable but would be a name some big fans would know, sort of like Culpepper. 90% of all sports execs are anonymous so someone recognizing Samson would probably require them being from the Miami area. Which the way this show works I wouldn't be surprised if they cast someone specifically because they went to college in Miami and said they were a Marlins fan or something.

Speaking of which I suspect they intentionally put the older New Jersey cop on the same tribe as Clifford Robinson, who lives in Jersey and played for the Nets. He seems like he may be the right person to recognize him. It seems like every time Survivor casts one of these secret "celebs" they always put them with someone who is a fan of their team or something that could help them recognize them.

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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Agreed, but since half of the cast is under 30 that limits the number of people who closely followed basketball in the 90s. Like I said, I expect someone to recognize him because I think that's how Survivor casting works. Cast a 90s NBA player and then cast a couple of people who specifically mention being huge NBA fans at the right time/rooted for the Blazers or whatever team he played on at the right time.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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From the show Colton seems like a guy adept at saying the right thing and trying to blend in right up until he hits a roadblock or a hurdle and then he falls apart, lashes out, and turns into a spoiled child. If everything's going fine for him I'm sure he's able to come off fairly well, it's when he faces some kind of problem that he shows what a terrible person he is.

So its not really surprising to me that he'd come off well in interviews. He's had months to figure out what to say and the odds of things spiraling out of his control are small.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I think "good" winners are generally overrated and "bad" winners are generally underrated. When someone "controls" the game people act like they're a genius mastermind who did everything right but there's always luck and good breaks that factor into that. Someone losing doesn't mean they sucked, it just means something went wrong. Maybe it was out of their control or maybe it was their mistake. But plenty of winners have made mistakes they survived and plenty of losers have done absolutely nothing wrong and were just victims of chance. And a lot of the winners people tend to call weak are people who managed to dodge and evade all this luck and game play to get to the end and secure the votes. And that's literally the point of the game so it seems weird to call them undeserving or bad winners.

For the most part all we're doing is taking whatever kind of player or gameplay we personally enjoy the most and elevating that to some objective scale of merit. Its silly. Parvatti played a hell of a game and entertained me. Cochran didn't entertain me at all and didn't make many big moves. But he won. He survived to the end and had the votes to win. So I'm not going to discredit the guy's win. He did what he had to do.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Feb 13, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Maybe they have a lot of that bizarre fruit Garret was chomping on.

xbilkis posted:

Slightly better odds at tribal success are counterweighted by much worse odds at individual success.

Even with a nearly 0% chance at tribal success (versus...let's say, a 20% chance if Garrett sticks in the game), you're probably getting a net positive if you go from a 50% chance of getting voted out in the case of tribal failure (and basically a guaranteed boot if you lose twice) to a nearly 0% chance of getting voted out next round, and fairly solid odds of staying in for 9 more days.

When you're at the point where there are 4 people left on a tribe that's been a dismal failure, and you're in the bottom rung of the tribal hierarchy, you might as well throw the dice and pray for the game to save you.

100% this. I'm a big believer that you have the leave the strategy at the door to start with and play for Tribe strength in the early days. But when you're down to four people on Day 7, your tribe is utterly incompetent and insane, and the guy leading it has just basically laid out the boot order in tribal council? You just gotta fight to survive and pray for a miracle. Tasha never had a choice. She knew she was a dead women walking when they announce J'tia was going home and Garrett confirmed it in Council. And Kass didn't seem terribly secure with the guys even before Garrett threw her under the bus. The tribe was hosed so you just have to try and be the last rat on the ship at that stage. Hope a lucky merge saves your rear end.

And the funny part is that it was absolutely the right decision because of that idol. They didn't know that but that dummy with an idol could have been a disaster for them. Now they took his rear end out early and with any luck they'll find his idol in a pile of his dirty underwear and all have a good laugh.

Man, I was laughing so hard during that council I nearly passed out.

What an amazing start. And the loving cop. Wow. Its impressive when you can be that crazy and stupid and not even in the bottom three of worse players in the season. That spy shack better follow through somehow. I can't wait to see him sitting on the side of it when the roof caves in and everyone is staring at him.

I'm all about Team Brawn. Cliff, Wu-Tang, and Sarah. I loved her extra commentary during the challenge. "Are they still working on their first piece? I must be on the wrong tribe."

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I think her "this isn't how Survivor is played" tantrum probably came after a lot more nonsense from Garrett. The way they were all acting and talking it seemed clear Garret wouldn't let anyone talk to anyone alone. So the tantrum was probably a frustrated response to him holding them all hostage to prevent scrambling. Then she and Kass went to "wash their feet", got in a few seconds of exasperate talk about Garrett, and then he came crunching along.

I mean, even Spencer felt a need to call Garrett out on that crap in Council so I just imagine there was way more of it. If I was there and he won't let me alone I would probably lose it too.

And honestly, I don't think Tasha had any other option. From her perspective she absolutely was the odd man out. She could have just gone along with it but then she would have been in the Ciera position from last season. Even though we know the Kass alliance with the guys wasn't that stable she had every reason to believe it was a strong three the way they were all on the same page. J'tia and her insanity just made it an ridiculous position for her to be in.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:04 on Feb 27, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Birth Ritual posted:

There's a few different ways of being beautiful, a few different ways of being strong, but there are a million different ways of being smart. And it's obvious that there are plenty of people who can be brilliant in one way, and an absolute moron in other ways. I think the Brains tribe probably had the most pressure to live up to what they were deemed, and they have obviously failed.

I totally would have voted out J'Tia for dumping the rice alone, but it is clear that it was a good personal move for Kass and Tasha to not go for her. Spencer's only hope is to try to align with her after they lose the next challenge!

I think someone else nailed it before. The problem with "Brains" is really smart people tend to think they're the smartest person in the room, when the reality is that as you said there's a million ways you can be smart and being a genius at one thing doesn't qualify you for jack else. That's what got J'tia in trouble initially because she got bossy and took charge without anyone asking. And David, Kass, and Garrett were all clearly playing hard right out the gate trying to outsmart everyone else.

On paper I wonder if Brawn might not have the best chance of working together just because so many of them are team athletes or members of fraternities like the police. To some extent or another they theoretically are all "team players" already. Stereotypically brainiacs just don't tend to play well with others. Of course even if there's any truth to this the nutty cop threatens Brawn's functionality.

As for Spencer I think his best bet is to appeal to Kass and Tasha's logic. J'tia has given them a dozen reasons to vote her off and is now clearly unstable. It just makes sense to keep Spencer if he can just pull even a little Vytas and ingratiate himself with the women. I doubt he's got the social game Vytas had but these women are barely an alliance and don't even seem to like each other much. All he has to do is make the very easy case that voting off the last guy and a stable person doesn't make sense and that he's not going to jump ship at the first sign of a merge. Of course that assumes Kass and Tasha play logically.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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The best part about that is he's whining about how hard it is and how he didn't come to "survive", he came to play the game. And then he's trying to roadblock and control the game and totally Magoos the hell out of every possible move.

I'll give him one bit of credit though, at least when he was voted out he didn't make any excuses and clearly seemed to recognize how bad that was. Marlins went out all "I don't regret anything, I played how I wanted to." Garrett had the decency and self awareness to go out "I'm a dumbass and this is embarrassing."

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Garrett's sort of responsible for creating the situation but J'tia dumping all the rice in the fire was never really a logical consequence he could have forseen. Not unless J'tia had proven herself as crazy in some way we didn't see before that. But yeah, they aren't going to starve any time soon. They can eat snails and fruit and try to fish. They'll just whine and be miserable for awhile, which could help Spencer move ahead of J'tia in the boot order.

I don't have a lot of hope for Spencer and I'm a little worried he's Cochran 2.0 who everyone loves and I hate, but I don't blame him hugely for aligning with Garrett. Mind you, that's the exact reason I say you should try and avoid forming tight alliances early unless you have to, because you have no idea who you're getting in bed with. I understand why he hooked up with Garett early and he seemed sane and rational right up until that tribe meeting.

And once Garrett pulled that "J'Tia is going home, NO ONE CAN TALK!" trip he gave Spencer no chance to rethink things. Kass didn't seem to give up a clear sign of which way she was going in Tribal and they never had a chance to talk privately so he had to flip a coin between the two lunatics and hope Kass went the same way. Outside of pulling a Caleb and trying to flat out count the votes in Council I'm not sure what else he could have done.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Tony just seems nuts. Like, we're talking "I don't really believe Phillip Sheppard was a secret agent. I think he's just crazy" nuts. I'm not convinced Tony's really a cop.

I don't know if Tony really believes cops jump across building like on TV or if he just thinks we believe it. But the spyshack, lying to the other cop when she had him dead to rights, and how he thinks we see police just makes him seem out of touch with reality.

He could screw up things for Brawn but I'm just not sure he's smart enough to since Cliff, Woo, Sarah, and Lindsay seem together well enough to handle it. If it comes down to the four of them vs Tony and the other lady its going to take one of them screwing up bad or Tony/other lady pulling off a great move to change things, I think. Or at least I hope because I really like Cliff, Woo, and Sarah.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I also shake my head in these shows when someone tells a pointless lie like that early in the game. Because its always these people deciding that whatever lie they're telling is hiding something that would be more damning than being caught in that unnecessary alive in a game about trust.

I'm glad Cliff didn't get caught up in that and just freely put it out there that he played some ball. Woo was obviously waiting for it since he recognized him and by not trying to hide it but also not boasting Cliff probably bought some respect from his tribe mates.

My three basic rules of this early game.
1) Don't get too deep in bed with someone you don't know because that can come back to bite you.
2) Don't tell unnecessary lies because they can come out and expose you later.
3) Don't carelessly piss people off by being rude, bossy, or lazy.

Someone fell to at least two of them in the premiere.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Feb 28, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Brains got fire from Tribal Council. Beauties started their own fire right away. I think Brawn might have got theirs from the comp.

But yeah, I don't know what kind of forewarning these players have that they've made Survivor or how long the process is but if I got even half way to being on a Survivor I'd just immerse every free hour I have in learning survival skills. Find some class or youtube channel that teaches you how to start fires, build shelters, fish, find and prepare food in the wild, ward off animals, whatever. It always blows my mind how few people can start fires. I'm sure its harder than it looks but on a tribe of 6 or 8 people how are there not at least half who busted their asses practicing and learning to start fires using whatever they found in their back yard? Whenever I see a Survivor start a fire right away I think "that guy/girl came prepared for this game."

Whenever I see a Survivor get on the beach and immediately start scheming and talking about who they can manipulate I just roll my eyes and prepare for an idiot who thinks they know everything but relies on the tribe to live. I'm looking at you, Brice, since David and Garrett are gone. You could at least have the courtesy of being crazy like Jersey Cop.

It's just weird because I doubt the really good "gamers" and "puppet masters" learned how to be that way by studying before the show. They're probably just people already adept at lying or reading people or manipulating people or whatever. But you can learn survival skills. If you don't got social skills by the time you try out for Survivor you might not be able to cram those in.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Feb 28, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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It seemway too early to tell how most of the players and people are. Spencer could be ok but he also give a me hints of the kind of guy I'll hate an Bgrifter will love. Most of the Brawn seem to be alright and Sarah seemed to have her head in the game. And I didn't get a huge vibe from most of the. Beauties beside Brice. Once Beauty has a little more conflict we'll get to know them better. There was just too much crazy in the first episode to get to know the seemingly normal ones.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Did Erik do something really stupid the second time around? He obviously wasn't a brainiac and he didn't seem to be actively playing but I don't remember him screwing up terribly. I know I wanted him to turn on Stealth-R-Us but considering how physically weak they were compared to the Three Amigos I can't really say it would have been the best move for him. And if I remember correctly he at least had to good sense to realize that Malcolm's "we're going to use the idols and vote Phillip so you might as well not vote for us" could have been a bluff and threw a vote at Phillip to better the odds against the Amigos throwing a curveball.

I mean, I think he's kind of a dope but I also think he was at a severe disadvantage in Micronesia against three of the best players the game as ever had. Under those conditions I'd probably expect the Black Widows would mind gently caress me too.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Man, one of the things I love most about Survivor is watching smug assholes hit the island running, think they have the game in control, get all cocky in confessionals and tribal, and then get their rear end sent home. Bonus points for being a sore loser. Brice was kind of amusing and the rest of the non-LJ tribe is pretty forgettable but Brice was going to wear thing really quick, especially if he was in the power alliance. You could see he was itching to throw that weight around.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw that Spencer and Tasha were as much to blame for that challenge as J'tia, if not more. They just lacked the strength to toss the buckets and J'tia seemed to be rarely getting water. J'tia sucks but so does the rest of her tribe.

And Spencer's doing a solid job playing the lovely hand he's been dealt but I don't think he's really doing anything praiseworthy yet. I hope he can find a way to survive because I rather see him in the later part of the game than probably any of his tribe mates. But for him to survive another Council before some kind of swap/merge he might have to do more than he is doing, or pray for another J'tia meltdown.

I was impressed with Sarah last week so I'm kind of sad to see her fall for Tony's silliness this week. I think she got a little high on being right about him and is letting that and "blue blood" blind her. Hopefully she wakes up and catches some of Tony's craziness.

BGrifter posted:

On RHAP Rob C mentioned they wouldn't let someone legit starve till it was dangerous or something. They'd offer some sort of trade for more rice like giving up a reward or dismantling their shelter.

Yeah, I assume if things get bad enough they'll do like Australia and offer to trade rice for something valuable. Or I was half expecting second prize in the challenge to be a bag of rice with an option to choose that if you win 1st. But let's remember its like day 9. "5%" of their rice is probably more than a tiny amount, they're probably not super beat up yet, and they probably haven't picked clean the natural resources around them. They probably could have survived the non challenge days on a couple of pieces of fruit each or something. The rice is probably something that will affect them more if they can keep winning and start to eat away at their rations.

Robnoxious posted:

Even in Tasha's confessional she said wouldn't be hesitant to cut J'tia loose despite their soul sista connection (which is really the only reason she hasn't been cut yet).
This feels like a really ugly implication to me. The two black girls might have allied because they were black but they also might have allied because the three white people allied against them. If you believe Tasha (and I do) she was willing to cut J'tia until Garret pulled all that crap and exposed his alliance. She was saying right after the open meeting that an alliance was obvious and Garrett confirmed it in Tribal. So Tasha was just worried that if J'tia went home she was going home next. She tried to save J'tia because it stood to better her position on the tribe and she felt she had nothing to lose.

Propaganda Machine posted:

I can only give shits about Brawn at this point. I'll put it up to opinion:

Do we like Woo, who has gotten a couple of reasonable confessionals and character building moments, or Vin Diesel, who's getting sold over the top? I can't tell if Woo will be a boring mid-season boot or a powerful dark horse. Likewise, I can't tell if Vin Diesel will go all Shamar, or turn into Ressel 2.0.
We haven't seen enough of Woo to really know but I think he's got the making for a very likable and skilled social and competition player. The question is how he is strategically but Brawn hasn't been tested on that yet. But he's got the makings of my favorite type of player. Solid at surviving, strong in challenges, good guy. It's just a question of how he plays the game when it comes time.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 11:15 on Mar 7, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Francessa also doesn't seem to hide her game well. If I remember correctly both times she went it was basically because people quickly identified her as Someone who could see through their bullshit and she failed to convince them otherwise. Part of the game is making the tribe think you're less of a threat than you are.

Eliminating Brice made sense since he was on the outside alliance and seems like more of a physical and game threaten then Morgan. The only real reason to vote out Morgan would have been the possabilty of her having the idol, but between LJ having it and her not using it before the first vote it probably would have paranoia to still think that way.

I'm also not thinking there was any race stuff behind the brains. The tribe broke into duos early like it always does. When David was voted out that left Kass alone and a Garret and Spencer picked her up. It just happened they were white and the outsiders were black. I suppose there's a possible deeper issue of how often the black people "just happen" to be on the outside and I would love to see more evenly distributed seasons like Yul's but I wouldn't want to apply racial stuff based on a pattern to individuals without some evidence. If there's a problem its the system.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 7, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Gervese is the Jackie Robinson of Survivor stereotypes.

TheChad posted:

Survivor just needs to cast more minorities, don't need to have whites ALWAYS outnumber everyone else in a 2 or 3 to 1 one ratio.

Yeah. The season divided by race wasn't the best idea but the positive about it was that there was an even racially playing field so none of this sort of "why did the nearly all white tribe have to vote out the only minority first?" stuff happened. There's really no reason not to keep the white/straight people no greater than 50%. Even if the Survivor audience is racist I'm sure they're watching for the game and brand at this stage.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Pinterest Mom posted:

But that's exactly what ended up happening though? The Candice/Parv/Adam/Jonathan alliance systematically voted out all the non-white people until you were left with White People + Nate vs Ozzy/Yul/Becky/Sundra.


Poque posted:

Yeah, but a big part of that is going to be switching things up in a tribal swap and sticking to original tribal lines. That felt more frat/bro as an alliance - hence the inclusion of poo-chopping Nate - and as such Jonathan didn't fit and ended up flipping.

Yeah, that really came down to tribal stuff in the end, that was divided racially. The black, Asian, and Hispanic tribes didn't come into the game with a disadvantage to the whites in terms of numbers. It was the only time in the games run they were all on even footing. But it so happened that the way it worked out some minorities got shifted onto a white dominated tribe and then tribal lines hit them.

Which is why it was a bad overall idea because it made the game about race by dividing them by race. But if you look beyond that having a perfectly even breakdown of races gives the minorities a fairer shot from day one because it puts them on even playing grounds even on a lot of subconscious or cultural levels. My perfect Survivor cast would have a perfectly even breakdown of white vs black vs Hispanic vs whatever, gay vs straight, man vs woman, old vs young, etc. And divided evenly that would be the fairest cultural and racial playing ground in Survivor history.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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JesusSinfulHands posted:

One black guy on Survivor who can swim does not invalidate all the other moments we've had such as Gervase swimming terribly (twice), Osten nearly drowning, Cliff/Brice sitting out this year, or many other moments that I can't remember off the top of my head.

I actually thought this was a little exaggerated. Like we have no idea why Brice and Cliff sat out. Its the stereotype that's making you say "its because there's a stereotype that black people can't swim." Unless I missed something the two of them never actually said they couldn't. Cliff in particular is a middle aged guy with a pot belly. Make him white and he's still the most likely guy on paper to sit out a challenge that has you swim a long distance, climb a big wall, and then swim back. Maybe he's a weak swimmer on top of that but that seems like an assumption people are making. Like until I read this thread when I saw Cliff sit all I said was "yeah, oldest, heaviest guy makes sense." Then I get in here and see all the "black people can't swim" stuff and that's the first I even wondered if he couldn't swim.

Outside of Osten and Gervase are there really a lot of clear examples of black Survivors not being able to swim? There's not at on of black Survivors but there's usually at least two per season. If just a few incidents stand out then it seems like cherry picking to me.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Sheesh.

Still, I'm not sure that makes her a racist or anti Semite. More like an incredibly insensitive jack rear end.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Dear God, the Brains tribe is terrible. J'tia is obviously the worst of the bunch but she's completely distracting everyone from how bad the lot of them are. I was all prepared to give Spencer a pass since he carried them in that challenge but his Council performance didn't exactly convince me this is a guy with Survivor game. He got lucky Tash and Kass went the way they did because he sure wasn't making too strong a case.

And drat Brawn going all to hell. Sarah and Woo, I believed in you and then you turned on Uncle Cliffy over nothing? Woo didn't even need Crazy Cop's transparent lie to be convinced. He just goes "Cliff's old and rich" and he's turned? drat Woo. You suck. It doesn't even make sense. Why are you turning on the buddy who everyone agrees doesn't need the money? That's who I want at the end.

And Beauty. Dear lord. The funny thing about that egg thing is it sounded like a couple of them knew the right answer but they obviously weren't sure of it. And LJ's weird rear end dinosaur thing. It made me almost entirely forget how bad Morgan looked this episode with her "hey, Jeremiah did it all" and "he's not even that beautiful" stuff.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Eh, I'm sure the debate actually happened. Tasha and Kass did seem to genuinely be debating the decision in council, especially Tash.

On some level it made sense. Its a safe bet that a swap or something is coming up soon. They genuinely trust J'tia to be loyal to them if they all end up on the same tribe while Spencer obviously could jump ship. And even if the swap/merge didn't come next and they go back to council J'tia goes easy and being a minority of two on a tribe isn't that much strategically worse than a minority of three.

It was stupid when Brains were thinking Day 39 on Day 1, because you have to survive the first stage of this game before you worry about the second. But now its like Day 12 and the first stage is all but over. They were essentially conceding that they lost this part of the game and gambling on the best way to set up the second part.

It was the "Garrett vs J'tia" debate all over again. Two bad choices and a certain amount of logic behind both of them. Ultimately I think they made the right call (or at least the easy one you don't have to second guess yourself on) but I don't even think it makes a huge difference at this stage. They're at the mercy of Survivor twists at this stage and I don't think any of them are competent enough players to turn things in their favor.

Although there are very few good gamers emerging so the second stage of this game is likely to devolve into more madcap antics and I guess anyone could come out the other side of that. At this stage I wouldn't bet on anyone.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 05:13 on Mar 13, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I completely forgot the idols. Who has them? LJ and Tony?

It feels kind of early for a merge. There's still 14 people, right? 6 Brawn + 5 Beauty + 3 Brain? So I'd guess two 7 person tribes with a random shakeup and then merge at 10.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Woo was obviously playing to the majority and said as much but he also clearly had no reservations at all about cutting Cliff's throat. And I think people are just projecting what they want to on him as far as throwing the challenge. Maybe he loved the idea, maybe he didn't, but he went along with it and it sure seemed to be working. Sarah wasn't exactly giddy about throwing it either. If I remember correctly Brawn got all their balls last and they couldn't never get them. What saved Brawn was that Cliff wasn't throwing it and had the obvious advantage in that last part of the challenge where he blew Spencer away.

xbilkis posted:

I don't understand how people are simultaneously saying "how could they even consider keeping J'Tia" and "I hope Spencer flips as soon as he can!!", because it doesn't seem like a very difficult connection to make.

Yeah, I feel like I'm verging on J'tia/Brains white knighting but I'm really not. J'tia is terrible and the Brains are terrible. But the logic there seemed pretty obvious in the same way that it seemed obvious why Tasha wanted to keep J'tia over Garrett. It's just people not being able to see the game from their perspective, and probably a good bit of people really pulling hard for the nerd.

Slightly related I just listened to the Garrett interview on RHAP and I don't understand at all why anyone would be impressed by him there. He sounded like the same full of himself, controlling tool he appeared to be on the show. His whole spiel was about how he really had totally control of Kass and no one knew he was with Spencer and no one was upset about the tribe meeting and he didn't REALLY say anything bad in Counical and you can't REALLY blame him for not bringing the idol to Council. It was just all arrogant excuses and rationalizing.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I don't think she's particularly savvy but I don't think she's particularly dumb either. She just has absolutely no power or ability to influence votes so she's swaying in the wind towards whatever direction seems to best get her one step farther. She got left on a limb when David got voted out so when the guys said "J'tia" she went with it. Then Garrett threw her under the bus and made her question her place as the third wheel and Tasha basically offered her a lateral move with only J'tia in her way so she went with it. Then she and Tasha realized Spencer is a cruddy ally so weighed the merits of gambling on keeping J'tia again. It all makes sense considering she's on a sinking ship trying to find the last life boat. It's the sort of play you usually see post merge from that goat who hangs on until final four simply because they have no loyalty or backbone. But she's shown no ability to grab the rudder and try to steer things some way.

Say what you will about Tasha, she's actually moved this tribe once or twice. I get the impression if she had decided to vote Spencer last night Kass would have gone along with it. Kass tried to paint that as Tasha being flaky but that's pretty rich considering she's just been following along. Still, Tash is going to play her way out of the game if she doesn't pull off a miracle and forge a post merge alliance. Kass could easily last deep in this game because she poses no threat and has shown a willingness to go any way gets her one move farther.

Kass and Spencer seem to be getting credit because they're very vocal about how inept the Brains tribe is. But that's not hard to see and neither has done anything since Day 1 to change the game. Someone said it last week but the Brains problem is simple and cliche (David also said it in his post eviction interview). Everyone on the Brains tribe thinks they're the smartest one in the group and everyone else is the problem. One of the is right about the "smart" thing but they're all the problem.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 06:37 on Mar 14, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Eh, I'd be saying the same thing if I was him even if I was half assing it. But its week 3. Woo will show what kind of player he is as we go deeper in the game.

Besides, if it was just Sarah and one other throwing it that basically means Woo and Cliff nearly got beat by Spencer solo. That's not something to be proud of.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Adus posted:

Spencer is getting credit because he's entertaining and also seems to be a decent player. I know you don't like players who are sarcastic or smug, but I think there's a difference between those things and just simple self-awareness. There's nothing wrong with lamenting how much your tribe sucks when you suck as much as they do. Besides, I'm not sure what sort of big moves you are expecting anyone on Brains to make at this point, especially since things you could arguably call moves so far have only resulted in disaster. Spencer's biggest move has been proving himself to be decent in challenges so if that's kept him around then he's at least more worthy of being there than J'Tia.

I actually really have nothing against Spencer and I actually don't totally mind a smug/sarcastic player if he's entertaining to me (Rob C would be a good example of that). I may not want to see them win but I can enjoy the ride. To be honest I'm probably over compensating a bit for what I perceive to be a bit of a Cochran/goon thing around Spencer. That's not totally fair and I'll try and turn it down. Mostly I just haven't seen anything impressive or special about Spencer. On the other hand I haven't seen anything especially objectionable or stupid about him either. He's just kind of there for me. I'd be happy to see him make it to the merge and get a new hand in the game to see what he does with it, because he at least seems slightly more deserving than Tash or Kass for that. I guess I just don't see anything that really overly separates him from the rest of the Brain dead pack and think he's probably had a pretty solid hand in the tribe's failures as most of them have (but J'tia has had the largest) instead of the "unlucky victim who got stuck with these idiots" thing that seems to be developing online for him. But then there's probably that bias/over compensation thing, I admit.

But I also think that some of it is that I think Tash and Kass are being cast a little overly "idiotic" for trying to navigate between J'tia and Spencer who they don't trust and don't have much reason to. And as much as J'tia has truly sucked she has become a bit of a scapegoat for every Brains failure. So again, I'm probably just over compensating a bit to try and see Spencer put where I think he belongs with Tash and Kass.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Mar 14, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Piell posted:

Spencer literally did 90% of the latest immunity challenge by himself.
He did and I give him credit for that. He absolutely carried that challenge.

quote:

Also he did the smart thing and voted for the person who dumped out the rice rather than the tribe's physically strongest player.
And he had the luxury of doing that knowing that it would put his alliance in total charge of the tribe if it happened and with absolutely no fear of Garrett voting him out next. We've been over this. Tasha voted out Garrett because he, Spencer, and Kass were clearly conspiring against her and she'd logically be the next one out. Voting out J'tia would have been going against her own best interests, regardless of how she felt about the rice or the tribe's chances with Garrett. You'd have to be an idiot to vote out the only ally you have when you have a chance of turning the power around at that stage. Even of Kass hadn't turned Tasha wouldn't have changed her position in the tribe because she was already on the bottom and Garrett's next target.

Kass voted out Garrett because he threw her under the bus and she decided he was a bad ally. She also realized that in allying with Tasha and J'tia she moved into a position of power over Spencer and she stood a chance to outlast J'tia thus moving up in the tribe from a shaky three to "final two". That's playing for losses but its not a terrible thing to keep in mind considering how utterly incompetent the tribe had proven up to that point.

You're entirely focused on the hypothetical edge Garrett would have given them in the next challenge when its entirely plausible it would have been meaningless and Tasha and Kass would have been the next two on the chopping block. Tasha and Kass were covering their asses. Spencer wasn't in that position so his decision making worked differently.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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It would follow the pattern of Garrett and David also feeling they were the smartest ones in the tribe and did way more than the evidence would seem to indicate. In the end I bet there's going to be six Survivor losers all telling a similar story about how their brilliant game was screwed up by those five idiots they were put with.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I wouldn't bet on Woo. He's an obvious threat and if this newfound Crazy/Hot alliance have any brains they take him out next. Even if they don't Lindsay is vulnerable and Sarah is vulnerable on the other side and Tony doesn't trust him so who the hell is on his side? The man is a little screwed right now. His position could shape up but he'll need a touch of random Survivor luck and Brains might have stolen most of that for that perfect tribal breakdown.

Seriously you couldn't have drawn that tribe better for Brains. The perfect three beauties with no drat sense to just sell each other down the river while Sarah just waves in the wind.

sportsgenius86 posted:

They had to have edited a shitload of stuff out to make that look like a shock on TV because there's no way he sits on that idol given what we saw
My only thinking is that he figures even if the idol saves him today he's still outnumbered so he's probably gone next week. Its a huge rear end gamble but I guess I can kind of see sitting on that idol just because it makes him SO dangerous now. I wouldn't have done it but now he's got some new allies, a solid game head, great comp skills, and an idol no one could possibly suspect after that. Trish and Tony deserve to get bit in the rear end by that down the line.

drat, gently caress Trish and Tony being nutty fucks and throwing away the huge advantage Brawn had. gently caress the Brains falling backwards into the best position in the game. gently caress the Beauties being a mess and walking away from this week unscathed. Uncle Cliffy! I'm so sad now. Life and Survivor are unfair.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Robnoxious posted:

LJ not playing the HII was a balls of steel gamble but since he didn't play it, no one will assume he has one and that could come back to knife someone else in the back down the line.

Yeah, if this breaks right for him he has the numbers in this tribe and seemingly safe alliances with Trish and Jefra that should get him to the merge. Then he potentially has Jeremiah, Alexis, or maybe Sarah or whoever ends up on the outs on the other tribe. He shouldn't have to touch that idol for a long time and it could change or win the game when he uses it. It takes a lot to get there but by surviving this absurdly close call he might have put himself in the best position in the game.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Yeah, I just figured that he figured if Tony doesn't flip today than he's not going to talk Tony into flipping later. I guess it might have been worth risking it and threatening a tied vote/rocks situation. But that demands a lot of trust in Jefra and Trish to stay true. Trish just sold her entire tribe out so I don't know.

The whole thing was a huge rear end gamble. I wouldn't have had the balls to do what he did but I can kind of see why he did it. It was a pretty high risk/high reward situation. Using the idol would have been a more conservative play that probably would have left a target on his back no matter how it played.

And you're right that whenever someone uses an idol its usually just a one week save, but I think its just so early in the game it has to be hard to burn an idol with 13 other people in the game. Not doing it runs the risk of screwing up like Garrett and I'm sure everyone has nightmares of being in that James/China situation where he has two idols and he's in the jury because he wanted to wait one week too long. But it has to be tempting to hold onto that thing until the merge when you REALLY need it. When you're this early in the game and it looks like you might have another option I guess some people can just convince themselves to make a choice and hope for the best.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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In reality though its only really Lindsay who can be mad at him. Woo and Sarah were both in on throwing the challenge last week to blindside Cliff. So Sarah won't be upset and Woo is a dummie for not seeing this coming.

In order to "flip" I think you technically need to pick a side in the first place. Tony has obviously been playing for himself and only himself since the start. He'll do whatever he deems best for himself next Council and it wouldn't be surprised if that's mending fencs with Woo and Lindsay and trying to target LJ.

For what its worth my "gently caress Tony and Trish" was just me being sad my favorite is gone. I think it might have been a bad move for them because they're weakening their power right now hoping things work out down the line. If I'm LJ I don't trust those two at all and any chance I have I take elsewhere. But I honestly don't know if I think it was a good or bad move for them. I think its way too early to be worrying about your alliance position and start playing dirty. A lot can happen and Final Five/Six is a nice place to be at this stage.

But I don't know any more. These people are all playing for Day 39. Either they're playing chess I can follow or they're nuts.

BGrifter posted:

Really surprised by the immunity challenge result. The non-Brains tribe looked pretty stacked, but Spencer is really stepping up in challenges.

I'm not an engineer so I could be wrong and I'd have to rewatch to be sure but I think Brains 2.0 winning came down to them sticking their two strongest in the front eventually. I feel like thats where you want the power so you can guide and drive the ram, everyone else just has to keep the thing in the air. Brawn 2.0 had more strength but never seemed to focus it. And Tony probably wasted a ton of time and strength trying to break 2x4s with kicks. I'm guessing it also helped on the second wall that Brains 2.0 are smaller so they probably had to break less of the wall to get through. Cliff probably needed a Kool Aid Man size hole to get through.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 07:19 on Mar 20, 2014

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Binary Logic posted:

I'm fairly certain there was a rule that Probst stated they had to use the log to break through the wall. And yet Tony used his hands and feet without getting a warning. So there was "bullshit" as you call it on both sides.

When Tony started kicking the cross beams Jeff said you could do that as long as you were still holding onto the log. But I think the kicking thing was stupid. There's a reason you'd want to knock down a door with a battering ram instead of kicking it down. I'm still convinced Tony only thinks he's a cop because he loves cop shows. So he wanted to kick down some doors like he wants to jump across roofs.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I think you guys are overthinking this. They grabbed balls. It happened to link three of them up. That's a little weird but not enough so to warrant more than a shrug.

I said it before but I think the weirder fortuitous breakdown was how Beauty was split perfectly to cause them to self destruct. If LJ or Jefra had gone over instead Alexis or Jeremiah then that would have at least been a solid two, and LJ probably wouldn't have been stupid enough to throw Morgan under the bus and throw himself at the mercy of the Brains. If one of them had replaced Morgan than it would have probably completely changed the tribe making 3 united Brains and 3 united Beauties with Sarah as the swing vote.

Even the Brawn split seemed kind of fortuitous. If Sarah had been with that big group instead of Trish I really don't think she would have turned on Cliff there. She may have been suckered into all that stuff before but I think she would have seen the value in the power alliance for the next few rounds while Trish was obviously just super emotional. I could be wrong, though.

But the thing to remember is this show was taped six months ago and edited together. Sometimes things look fortuitous because the talented professional editors and storytellers knew it was going to play out that way and could craft their editing to tell the best story.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Yeah but she wanted to do that on a tribe where she had the majority with her. Doing it in this tribe would have demanded her trusting in Woo and the Beauties and giving up that sure thing power alliance the Brawn had. I think the circumstances are different enough that she might have changed her mind. Remember that Tony wanted Cliff gone last week too but he had all but abandoned that idea because even he could see the value in keeping the Brawn tribe together and taking out LJ. It was Trish and her crush on LJ that made that happen.

Plus had they lost last week then they would have had to vote out a Brawn and its easy enough to convince Woo or Lindsay that Cliff is that guy without it reading as too devious. But voting out Cliff this week is a public and undeniable betrayal of the Brawn tribe that could have come back on Sarah and might not have had Woo's support.

We'll never know but my gut just says Sarah would have seen the value in sticking with Cliff and Lindsay a little while longer at least into the merge over trusting in LJ and Jefra (and risking a Beauty post merge alliance).

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Poque posted:

Round 1 was Tasha/Morgan/Sarah vs Lindsey/Trish/Jefra (3 girls v 3 girls)
Round 2 was Alexis/Spencer/Jeremiah vs Cliff/LJ/Trish (2 guys, 1 girl)
Round 3 was Sarah/Spencer/Jeremiah vs Cliff/Lindsey/Tony (2 guys, 1 girl)
Yeah, Orange were just bad at it due to size and maybe fatigue. Cliff was a tough one to move but I also thing Spencer and Jeremiah are pretty weak and went about it wrong. As much as I love Uncle Cliff I kept thinking the way to go would have been for each guy to grab a leg and make a wish.

It was all worth it, though, for that moment where Alexis is flying across the beach and Cliff is laughing as Spencer and Jeremiah hopelessly paw at him like little babies. Survivor Comedy Gold.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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BGrifter posted:

Of course. I've just been hearing a lot of "worst challenge tribe ever" and the like, I think that's excessive. They're a pretty average tribe with one outlier.

I guess I'd have to rewatch some of the offending tribes but I think if you look at most of the worst challenge tribes you'll find a majority of people who are competent or have some skills as the non-J'tia Brains do. But what usually kills those tribes is the lack of teamwork or egos or just the negative momentum. As much as people like to blame J'tia for all the loses because she did often play a kep role in them there's other things you can point to with all of them, including voting off their two strongest men first.

J'tia was a liability who lost at least one challenge single handedly but the bigger problem is that Brains were playing the game from the second David picked Garrett as the odd man out and they never came together as a tribe until they had no other choice. And I think in the end the reason Brains will look bad in Survivor history is because the three tribe format gave them second chances they failed on too.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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Unfortunately you really do have to avoid this thread or any kind of Survivor discussion or commentary if you want to stay spoiler free on old seasons. I did my best when I was binging my way through the show but even if you check out as soon as you see an unfamiliar name you still start to get familiar with those names. Then eventually every time you're starting a season and recognize one or two people's names in the first episode and immediately assume those are the people to watch and one of them is probably the winner.

Metropolis posted:

I agree Brains looks extra bad partly because they didn't just lose, they lost to two other tribes. But I would say they are not the worst ever (though they are certainly a weak lineup) because they didn't lose every time.
I think trying to define any serious absolute ranking of things usually just feeds into biases of some kind. You could argue that Brains are better than Russell Swan's tribe because they won one or you could say Brains are worse unless they produce two players as good and successful as Malcolm and Denise. In the end there's a whole ton of contextual luck and circumstance that makes it impossible to fairly compare them. It's theoretically possible that if you swap those two tribes into each other's seasons they do better just because of different opponents or a different setting or a different initial twist or different challenges.

In the end all we can really say is they both really sucked.

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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

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I lost any chance to like Morgan when her immediate reaction to Brice being voted out and her not terribly well conceived blindside plan falling apart was to
A) clumsily try to blame it all on Jeremiah.
B) whine that Jeremiah wasn't hot enough to be on the Beauty tribe.

Morgan probably benefited from that Tribal swap even more than the Brains. Who knows how things will play out for her now but she was toast on the Beauty tribe. And they hadn't even found out yet that she lied about the idol clue on Day 1. Sarah blowing up that lie and Morgan trying to brush it off as Alexis stared slack jawed at her was kind of hilarious.

Morgan is a bad player and not coming off like much of a better personality.

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