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mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
That was amazing-- definitely the best opener I can remember. Brice, Morgan, Cliff, Sarah, Tony, Kass, Tasha, Spencer, and J'Tia are all already All-Stars material and it's only Episode 2. I ultimately liked Blood vs. Water and it's chaotic gameplay, but this is a nice reminder that you don't need fifteen twists and a bunch of returning players to ensure big blindsides and big moves.

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mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

LeJackal posted:

When your tribe loses the first and second challenge, you're going to be even weaker for the third. The double counsel means everyone is scrabbling, nothing gets accomplished but lazy bad social scheming which weakens the tribe for the next challenge. Soon the tribe is whittled down to the last two exhausted people that get thrown into the other tribes which have had a lot of time to build alliances. The odds of coming back from a split like that are astronomical.

Tell that to Malcolm and Denise.

As others have said, the Brains tribe are probably going to lose the next few challenges anyway. Kass needs to quickly get herself in a situation where she can be in the top 2 of her tribe, and taking out Garrett was the best way to ensure that, especially now that J'Tia has alienated herself from Tasha.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Feral posted:

The difference was Brandon got sent home right after that.

And there was a tribal swap right after, so the new food was nominally for the new tribe.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Really sad to see Brice go, he was the only interesting person on that tribe. But I am very glad the Brains won for once-- I was worried if they lost every challenge and were Matsing'd that they'd never try 3 tribes again.

All seasons should be 3 tribe seasons. :colbert:

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Deciding whether to vote out J'Tia or Spencer was not at all an obvious choice. If the tribes were to stay together together, it's true that they are MORE likely to win with Spencer, but it's certainly far from a guarantee and it's also possible to win without him.

It's also not clear if trying to win another challenge is even beneficial-- history has shown that tribes that have never or almost never gone to Tribal Council pre-merge completely fall apart at the merge (see the last 3 seasons for great examples). It's been said in interviews that you get really paranoid about your tribe and your alliance without going to Tribal to solidify that alliance. If they keep Spencer, win a challenge, and then Brawn goes to Tribal and solidifies it's loyalties you could have a big alliance in play at merge that will be harder to break up.

On the other side of things, while J'Tia is MORE likely to remain loyal to Kass and Tasha than Spencer, it's again not a guarantee and it's also unclear if Spencer would definitely flip. Furthermore, Spencer or J'Tia are only useful as an ally if they can make it to the merge, so you have to factor in the probability they get voted out in an upcoming tribal swap (again, not at all obvious who has better odds to survive a tribal swap).

There are also a dozen other factors at play here: quality of life at camp, attempting to seem less threatening as a group at the merge, and even silly things like thinking about who would be better to take to the Final 3 if by some miracle the three of them can get there. I ultimately agree that Tasha and Kass made the right call, but I see why they were so torn and I can definitely understand why they'd consider keeping J'Tia.

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

TMMadman posted:

His actual quote was: The worst part about being in this tribe is that the girls have succeeded in putting themselves in a power position. The problem is, by doing that, they have run the tribe into the ground.

It's a factually true statement and, except perhaps for using the word girls, I don't think it's particularly misogynistic. He isn't stating that anytime a woman gets to be in power, she will do something wrong. He isn't stating that he hates them because they are women.

Sorry, I didn't mean the quote itself was particulary misogynistic, just that the line left me uneasy in the context of some other things he said (like his line about having to be more emotional as the only guy left on the tribe-- because Kass and Tasha are the kind of people that will keep a man in the game for showing an emotional side :confused:).

I disagree with it being a "completely true" statement though. There were 3 challenges after Garrett left: the bucket challenge which they won anyway (and where Tasha/Spencer hurt them way more than J'Tia), the blindfold challenge where Garrett wouldn't have been helpful except for being not-J'Tia in the last minute of the challenge, and the swimming challenge where he may have actually been useful. "Maybe costing us 12 eggs and beating the tribe that was trying to lose at one challenge" is not really "running the tribe into the ground." The tribe was doing terribly enough with Garrett, voting him out had nothing to do with running the tribe into the ground.

Shakugan posted:

The boot order for the initial tribe in a 3-tribe game doesn't matter too much when a two tribe merge is almost guaranteed at some point. Not actually losing as a tribe is WAY more important than having a good position in the boot order, because going into the two tribe merge with numbers is more important than the boot order in a very early alliance that is likely to change later anyway.

This isn't true at all, since in a 3 tribe game the decimated tribe can easily act as kingmaker at the merge. There have only been 2 other 3 tribe seasons, and both saw members from the worst tribe go fairly far in the game because one of the bigger tribes needs to allign with them to get a majority. That's why 3 tribe games are so interesting, it's no longer as simple as one tribe picking off another because they don't have the numbers to do that.

Also keep in mind that, due to tribe balancing issues, the existence of a "decimated tribe" is very likely to begin with-- so a tribe that loses the first 2 immunity challenges definitely needs to be assuming they will lose the rest, and the goal starts shifting towards being the last 2 members of that tribe.

STAC Goat posted:

To be honest I'm probably over compensating a bit for what I perceive to be a bit of a Cochran/goon thing around Spencer.

As someone who liked Cochran a lot and is lukewarm at best towards Spencer, I don't think you're overcompensating at all. He passes the bare minimum "aware there is a game being played" test, but that's about it.

mancalamania fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Mar 14, 2014

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

STAC Goat posted:

My only thinking is that he figures even if the idol saves him today he's still outnumbered so he's probably gone next week.
That's what he was saying, and 90% of the time people are in situations where they need to use Idols this is probably true. But this was one weird exception where, had the vote been 4 for LJ and 3 for Cliff, playing the idol actually overthrows the majority and makes things even. It's only under certain circumstances were playing the Idol buys you more than just 3 more days, and this actually may have been one of them and he still didn't play it! I guess maybe he thought it was unlikely that Trish would flip without Tony?

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
On the subject of throwing challenges, I think the Brains should consider throwing the next challenge to get Jeremiah, Sarah or Alexis out. Their main goal should be preventing any majority alliance at the merge, and right now that looks like it could be LJ/Jefra/Jeremiah/Alexis/Trish/Tony/Sarah. The question is whether they have enough information to realize this.

Knowing the Brains, though, they'll try to lose but accidentally win.

Then they forfeit Immunity, and vote out Morgan. Or Spencer. :doh:

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Shakugan posted:

I think she's just had some bad luck, there's nothing really to indicate that she's a bad player. The lie about the choice between idol clue and shelter was a pretty good one, and her throwing Jeremiah under the bus as soon as they got back from tribal that one time was pretty smart. She's been unlucky that the numbers just didn't go her way, but I wouldn't call her a bad player (at least from what we've seen so far). Not fantastic, but not bad.

As for the personality thing, the only thing that's been sketchy thus far was her "he's not even that beautiful" comment, but given the circumstances it's hard to really know how indicative that is of her personality.

Yeah, when she outed Jeremiah as a liar I thought it was a silly and pointless move, but somehow it seemed to really get under Alexis's and Jeremiah's skin to the point where the remainder of that alliance completely fractured on the new orange tribe.

As for the "he's not even that beautiful" comment, that was awesome. :colbert:

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Well what's interesting about the dynamics on the Orange Tribe is that they would (and will) change drastically depending on how much information they get from the Purple Tribe. If it's clear at the challenge what happened and what the new majority alliance is over there, I think it makes a lot of sense from Morgan's perspective to ally with the Brains and throw as many challenges as they can to keep Woo and Lindsay and try to form a majority coalition at the merge. Then she's not fourth in an alliance of four, but one of three outsiders in an alliance of six, with the added benefit of voting out all the people that hate her most.

Of course, the problem is that from the Brains perspective, it makes more sense to try to ally with anyone BUT Morgan, since it would fracture the potentially dangerous super alliance of Sarah/Tony/Trish/LJ/Jefra/Alexis/Jeremiah. While Alexis and Jeremiah didn't seem overly fond of each other last episode, there's no reason to think they wouldn't be logical and join up with their old allies to form a majority at the merge, especially if they have no new allegiance to the Brains.

Someone mentioned earlier that the worst case scenario for the Brains is a late merge at Final 9, but I think the real danger is a merge at Final 12 (after the next Tribal). If the Purple tribe loses another Immunity and sends Woo home, the Brains are left with very few potential allies to get a majority in the merged tribe and are in big trouble. To avoid a tie in that case, they need to get 2 of Sarah/Tony/Trish/LJ/Jefra/Alexis/Jeremiah to flip to their side (and that's assuming Morgan and Lindsey are guaranteed to be with them, which isn't a 100% sure thing). On top of that, their main enemies will be controlling both of the remaining Hidden Immunity Idols.

EDIT: Even worse scenario, merge at Final 11, and letting Purple vote out both Woo and Lindsay.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I got the sense some stuff happened with Lindsay that we didn't see, based on how Jeff was treating her-- it almost seemed like a sense of relief. Maybe she ran off on her own without even telling the crew, and production was freaked out they had a missing person on a deserted island in the middle of the night. Or I'm imagining things, I don't know!

I do think the Brains made the right move in getting rid of Alexis. Jefra and Alexis were probably the strongest 2-person alliance on the Beauties, and while that didn't explicitly come up in this episode I'm sure Morgan (and possibly Jeremiah) told the Brains as much.

I'm kind of confused as to why everyone seems so certain the post-swap tribes will stick together at the merge. Why on earth does Woo seem complicit in sticking with his new tribe when they were directly responsible in directly voting out in closest ally, and indirectly responsible for voting out his next closest ally? Similarly, I don't see any reason Jeremiah would rather be with these guys than LJ and Jefra, who he knew for much longer.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Tony was definitely great casting. On paper, he and Brad Culpepper are very similar players, so I couldn't really tell you why I find Tony so likable and Brad such an rear end in a top hat.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Shakugan posted:

People are rooting for him because he's playing the mastermind with the right mind set; he nudges people in the direction he wants them to go and lets them believe it's their own decision, and then laughs at them in their confessionals rather than in their face (which has been the downfall of many a would be mastermind).

Yes, the mastermind who got blindsided in the very first episode when the entire rest of his tribe voted out his closest ally. It was all part of his master plan.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

sportsgenius86 posted:

That's a tough position though. Obviously Garrett was a gigantic moron/loose cannon, but at the same time, anyone with a brain would have seen the future trajectory of that tribe in challenges if you cut him loose. You would have to be really dumb to look at what would be left after Garrett and think you're going to be highly competitive in team challenges.

In the 3 challenges after voting out Garrett, the Brains came in second in one of them and lost one by a matter of seconds. Only the swimming challenge had much of a physical component, and if Brawn hadn't been trying to throw that challenge, it's not even clear if Garrett would have helped much then either.

Certainly on aggregate Garrett is more useful than J'Tia in challenges, but an annoying trend in recent seasons is to never vote out any strong, buff guys pre-merge out of fear of losing every immunity challenge thereafter. It's both boring for the viewer and also not really founded in much reality-- as shown by Brains winning their first challenge after voting out Garrett, and the loved ones tribe winning their first challenge after voting out Brad Culpepper.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I haven't listened to the podcast, but Garrett claiming that Kass made up her mind before Tribal is directly at odds with Kass's confessional minutes after Tribal where she stated she didn't decide until she got there. I assume Garrett didn't see that until after the podcast, which further shows that he is not particularly socially aware and somewhat deluded about what actually went down.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Right now, Chaos Kass's best chance to win is by mixing up alliances constantly. If she just pagongs Tasha/Spencer/Jeremiah/Morgan, then either Kass is next to go or she's a goat with no votes in the Final 3. But if she can get other people to keep alliances fluid, she's no longer the only traitor and could potentially get herself to the end with equally-hated people.

The good news for both her and the viewer is I think she's smart enough to realize this, and I have a feeling this will be a crazy finish.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Propaganda Machine posted:

I think we mostly had Pagongings in Caramoan and South Pacific. Maybe more, but recent seasons have been very forgettable.

On thinking about it, I think Toby kind of win me over this week. With his idol use, he went from selfish prick to goofy team player. Good for him.

I also realized that the TP idol might not suck, given that the finder keeps it and its power secret. It was only so gamebreaking way back when because neither of those were the case. We've never seen an uberidol holder draw votes before. It could be awesome.

Without knowing the exact rules of the super idol, it's hard to say if it would be gamebreaking. I re-watched Panama a few months ago (the first season with the uber idol) and I got the sense that once the votes are read you couldn't play the idol on someone else. Meaning, for example, if Terry is holding onto the idol at Tribal, and Sally gets voted out, Terry can't give the Idol to Sally to save her. With these rules, the super idol isn't really much more powerful than the current idol these days since the players have gotten so good at vote splitting.

But, from what I vaguely recall about the Cooks, Yul was able to take control of the game by claiming he could and would do just that-- threatening Penner that, if anyone in his alliance got voted out, Yul would save them and Penner would go. That's what made the idol so game-breakingly powerful that season, since Penner really had no choice and was screwed either way. If those were the rules (and/or are the rules with the super idol this season), then I think the idol will be terrible again since it makes little sense to keep it a secret. If someone like Spencer finds the super idol, all he has to do is do the exact same thing Yul did and threaten someone like Jefra to join them or he can guarantee she goes home.

EDIT: They never explictly stated that rule in Terry's season, I'm just going by how the season went down-- otherwise, I can't imagine why on earth Terry would just watch as his alliance is voted out one-by-one and not do anything to stop it. Other than Terry being a completely narcissistic dope (probably just that!).

mancalamania fucked around with this message at 07:47 on Apr 3, 2014

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

sportsgenius86 posted:

I've always wondered, if you get voted out with an idol in your pocket, can you take it out and give it to someone as you're leaving?

I don't think so, but I know Jeff said in interviews that in the Redemption Island seasons if you got voted out with the Idol in your pocket you kept it when you went to RI. Given all the interaction between the RI players and the in-game players in Blood vs. Water, that may also allow handing off your Idol to someone while at a duel.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
While I'm sure most people in this thread already know what "special powers" the new idol has (from a pre-show interview Probst gave), I was thinking about other modified idol mechanics that could be interesting. The only one I came up with that was actually substantially different but also not overpowered is: play the idol like the current idol (after votes are cast, but before they're read) and if you receive a plurality of votes, all votes are nullified and everyone immediately re-votes AND you can play the same idol on someone else on that particular re-vote. The main idea is to counter vote splitting. If I play the idol on myself but the vote was split on me and my partner, now I have a chance to save both of us on the second round-- if the majority alliance want to avoid multiple immune members in the minority, then they have to pick exactly one person to vote for and not split the vote.

Probably a bit too complicated to ever appear on the show, but interesting to think about. It would certainly be interesting to see the meta-game change for a substantially different idol.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Cochran blindsiding Andrea and Brenda back-to-back, by far the two biggest threats to win the game at that point, is 10x the move than Spencer seems to have in him.

Granted, that was his biggest move and was at the end of his second season. Basically what I'm saying is Spencer only has about a season and a half left to shape up or ship out. :colbert:

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I always assumed that when people quit because they missed their families it was more "I can't concentrate on this game anymore" rather than "I have to get home ASAP," since I don't think they can just opt out of the sequester. Maybe if they're particularly distraught they can call home and check in? I do remember hearing that they sent Brandon Hantz home after Caramoan, but that was a bit different.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I find Laura's story pretty unlikely, since the 7 Mick-voters would have had to coordinate somehow to all vote for Natalie instead, or else there would have still been some Mick stragglers.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Factor Mystic posted:

This is part of what would make it great. Undermine those assumptions in the final 6, and watch the chaos.

In the past, they haven't announced surprise Final 2s beforehand, meaning the only chaos we would get would be around at the Final 3 when they unexpectedly have to vote off another person.

The problem with the Final 2 vs. 3 situation is that, while I think Final 2s are better (prevents a strong 3-person alliance from holding a majority for the last few TCs) it's only effective if they know the Final 2 is coming. If not, you still get the same boring endgame, just with a bigger chance that someone deserving gets knocked out right before the final TC (like Micronesia). And of course, Probst will just simplify things and say "see! Final 3's ARE better!" while missing the bigger picture.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Not that I necessarily think Kass is a good player, but no one should be so convinced that Kass traded a guaranteed Final 3 spot for 6th place. Sarah had said in a couple of interviews that she had a solid Final 3 pack with Spencer and Jeremiah. Who knows if she's telling the truth, or if Spencer intended to honor that deal, or if Kass had any knowledge of it-- but there's at least some reason to think Kass felt like her current alliance was a dead end.

It seems silly to write her off just yet, especially since I think she's been pretty reasonable and level-headed the rest of the season. She makes counter-intuitive moves, but that doesn't always mean they are bad. (But this particular move was probably bad)

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
What an awesome season. No idea what will happen, but now would be a great time for Kass to go back to her old alliance. A tight 4 of the 3 Brains + Jeremiah is probably the most mutually beneficial arrangement, and then it would be a Phillipines-esque Final 4: Tasha and Spencer taking the role of Malcolm and Denise, trying to get the other out right before Final TC.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I think based on Tony's last confessional before Tribal he clearly wanted to vote out LJ and then return to his old alliance, especially Trish. The problem is that he seems to underestimate how hard Jefra and Trish will have taken this vote, and how unlikely they are to trust him now.

Of course, with this season it's hard to trust anybody. You have two hugely unpredictable and aggressive players in Kass and Tony, and Tony appears to come with Woo's vote automatically. With only 8 players left, any majority next week will almost certainly need to rely on one or both of Chaos Kass or Cops R Us.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

It's always good to the final 5?

It was final 6 for a while, which made more sense-- final 5 seems cheap and makes the first Tribal of the finale anticlimactic. But yeah, they switched it to final 5 a couple of years ago, I believe.

Also they've had Final 4 finales with a Final 3 at Tribal before. They pad the extra time with a reward challenge, where the reward is usually an advantage at the final Immunity challenge. It kind of happened twice just last year actually-- Phillipines for sure, and sort of Caramoan if you take into account that Erik was medevac'd 2 minutes into the episode.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Lone Goat posted:

How many times was the season winner the person that won the last immunity challenge? By having less eliminations, it gives the "better" player a greater chance of making Final Tribal Council.

These are the worst case scenario, but I'd much rather have those seasons end the way they did, than have FTCs where the final 2 could have been:

Monica/Gervase
Dawn/Sherri
Lisa/Skupin *(Denise did not win final immunity)
Chelsea/Sabrina
Coach/Albert
Natalie/Phillip

But the meta-game is completely different if the players are planning for a Final 2, so it's very unlikely the Final 3 would be the same people. As an example, Monica said numerous times in interviews that she knew she was on the bottom of her alliance with Tyson and Gervase, and implied that she would have flipped on them if there was a Final 2-- but because she knew she could get to the Final 3 with either alliance, it never made much sense to flip since Ciera and Hayden were far bigger jury threats.

Final 3s encourage one smart person making a small, core alliance of 3 with 2 goats. You can't really do this with a Final 2, because a 2-person alliance never has a majority of votes at a given Tribal. When it happens with 3 people, it's very hard to stop once you get to the Final 6, leading to a very anticlimactic finish (last season is a great example).

What made the earlier seasons so interesting at the end was that it often made sense to bring a strong jury threat to the endgame, since it increases the odds you get brought to the Final 2 if you don't win the Final Immunity. It's how you can end up with really bizarre votes, like Aras trying to keep Cirie in the game at Final 4 in Panama since he knew Terry would be likely to win the Final Immunity challenge and would probably take him to the finals over Cirie (who would probably sweep the vote).

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Shakugan posted:

I'm hoping for more than just a couple of newbie seasons before the next all stars.

What I really want to see is a season where every single castaway is a prospective "Brain tribe" member. It's not even that they all have to be smart (I mean, we've seen pretty clearly this season that not all of the brain tribe members were particularly smart in a Survivor strategy sense), they just need to think that they are smart. Because smart people on Survivor often can't help themselves in overplaying due to a supreme belief in their own intelligence, and a season where almost every player overplays would be a gigantic clusterfuck... and therefore awesome.

It's because when most people come up with a counterintuitive idea they can recognize it as a bad idea and abandon it, but when people who think they are smart come up with the same idea they convince themselves they have thought of a clever, outside-the-box idea.

That's why I was confused that everyone here and even on the show was so surprised by the Brains making weird moves, since it completely matches all my experiences with people who are told they are smart in real life (i.e. all of academia).

mancalamania fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Apr 19, 2014

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Nicaragua has to be the season with the biggest nosedive in quality part way through. Most of the season is pretty above-average with the exception of Na'onka's unpleasantness, and includes the early blindside of the colossal rear end in a top hat Shannon, the later blindside of then-frontrunner winner Brenda, Marty's comedy of errors trying desparately to stay in the game, and a badass older lady who wins multiple challenges and thrives on trolling Marty. Then, in just the last few episodes, you have the double quit, that same badass older lady becoming one of the most unpleasant and bitter boots of all time, a bunch of other incredibly bitter and unpleasant Tribals (including and especially the final), and an absolutely out-of-nowhere winner.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Samarium posted:

He was going to be on HvV, but CBS gave his spot to Russell at the last minute, after they saw Russell play in Samoa.

According to Shane on RHAP, he said that he was supposed to be on South Pacific going against Coach, but Shane backed out for some reason, and they replaced him with Ozzie. Just imagine how different both of those seasons would be.

I feel bad for the returnees that seem to consistently be considered to return and then cut at the last second. I know Natalie from Micronesia is in a similar situation-- I think she was actually flown out for Heroes vs. Villains as an alternate, and I remember her name being mentioned during Blood vs. Water casting.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Fast Luck posted:

Because they're still down 4-3. I really think even if he was told the vote would be on Jeremiah, all it would mean is he'd keep the idol in his pocket. He's in survival mode, waiting for a fracture.

I wonder if Spencer heard Woo's line about them voting based on where Idols might be and assumed Woo was bluffing and they were voting actually voting Spencer. If so, it's not bad reasoning-- Woo was kind of a dope for letting the real reason of his alliance slip.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I don't really like the super Idol, but Tony is such a wildcard that I'm hopeful he can make it interesting. I would love to seem him come up with some ridiculous plan like telling everyone in the game to vote for him at Tribal so he can use his one vote to vote out Jefra or something. Of course, if any other player tried something like that it would backfire, but knowing Tony's luck in this game it would work and actually put him in a better position in the game.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
A simple vote split is the best counter to the Super Idol-- the big difference between the Super Idol and regular idol is that vote splitting is the *only* way to counter the Super Idol. On one hand, the Super Idol isn't a big deal because the players have gotten so good at vote splitting, but on the other hand vote splitting is only possible if you have a 2/3rds majority, which is much harder to come by so late in the game (and its actually impossible at the Final 5).

On a related note, I'm kind of amazed how good the players have gotten at vote splitting. Given that those tight 3-3-3 vote splits are so precarious that even one person voting unexpectedly can change the outcome, it's surprising that it's only really happened like two times (Cirie and Tyson in Heroes vs. Villains). Especially amazing that things never went awry in Caramoan given that they unnecessarily split almost every vote, and Sherri and Erik entertained the idea of ruining everything every single week but never actually went through with it.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Rarity posted:

There are plenty of great players who have never won it at all, I think anyone getting the win deserves respect for it. Except Neleh. gently caress Neleh.

:confused: Neleh lost that season, Vecepia won.

Shakugan posted:

The super idol does bring in an interesting strategy for next season. Someone could get a regular idol, show everyone, and then tell them that it's a super idol.

Yeah, I think the only interesting thing about the new idol are lies like this. It would also be interesting if Tony lies about what special powers the Idol has-- though it's also very unfair since the other players have no way to know if he's lying.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

BGrifter posted:

Part of why it was so stupid was Ozzy took a huge risk for a laughably small payoff. Ozzy's gameplay is tone deaf on so many levels it's almost painful to watch.

Yeah, the irony is (post-merge of South Pacific spoilers) Christine would have been a much better ally for Ozzy's alliance than Cochran, so his big move actually worked against him.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Spencer and Tasha played that perfectly. Loved Tasha's confessional that as a nice side effect of trying to make Tony paranoid, she's also strengthening her relationship with the girls for the future. Things are now set up perfectly for Trish and Kass to finally abandon Tony's madness and turn on him. As long as the SuperIdol doesn't completely ruin everything this will make for a great finish.

Also anyone that was questioning Tasha's auction move is nuts. Just two seasons ago in Caramoan there was both a challenge advantage and a separate Hidden Immunity clue up for grabs. Her ideal situation was both her and Spencer immune at Tribal, and that was not going to happen if both of them used their $500 on what they assumed to be a challenge advantage that would only help one of them. I also think it was unfair for Jeff not to say exactly what they were bidding on-- if it was clear that it was an Idol clue, Spencer and Tasha could have tailed him all day a la Andrea tailing Malcolm at this exact point in Caramoan.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

John Cena posted:

The big difference between someone like Tony and someone like Russell at the end: tony is likeable. Likability goes a long way and can be what saves your rear end at Final Tribal. His moves aren't done out of malice, he's not pointlessly talking poo poo to his other tribemates, it's all in the name of the game, and his moves broken down on an individual level are completely justifiable when he voted someone out. He's not blindly getting rid of people, he's targeting people he perceives as a direct threat to his game, be it long term or short term. With him, no vote has been one that was of waste. With how he has interacted with people before, and how he'll probably speak to the jury, I think he's nearly a shoo-in if he makes it to final tribal to win. The guy clearly has controlled the pace of this game from the getgo, has avoided alienating people, and the only thing I can see backfiring on him is the clapping after some of the votes, which can probably be spun as him applauding his alliance for successfully making a move.

Russell's moves were all strictly strategic and not personal as well. But moves like him voting out Danielle for no discernible reason other than the weird, twisted paranoid logic in his head really alienated him from the jury. While I see where Tony was coming from by voting out Jefra, I also saw Russell's twisted logic in voting out Danielle; I also think both moves were overly paranoid, unnecessary, and alienating.

I do agree that Tony is ultimately more likeable, and from reading interviews it sounds like Russell lost largely because he was kind of an antisocial loner at camp which Tony is not. But I do think, given what we've seen now, Tony will be struggling to win a majority of jury votes if he's up against anyone except for Kass or maybe Woo.

I also think Tony is not so great at explaining his reasoning for his votes, which could hurt him at the Final Tribal. While the broad move of voting out LJ makes sense (vote out the biggest threat in your alliance and then get back in their good graces), the way he described his logic in confessionals was very confusing ("the minority alliance voted for me so if I can trick LJ into technically saying the words "vote out Woo" then maybe LJ is untrustworthy enough for me to vote against him to save myself").

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Guys, we've got it all wrong. This season isn't proof that all seasons should be all-newbies, it's proof that all seasons should have this exact cast. These 18 people are magical, just sign them on for like 6 seasons and film the insanity.

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mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I personally love Kass as a character on the show, and somewhat like her as a person. On the show she's been instrumental in two huge moves, and her smug snarky confessionals are pretty amusing. Players that keep getting thrown around in the game and hated by the other players but can still keep their composure and a sense of humor are pretty likeable. Sorry she insulted goon-favorite Spencer, but a confessional poking fun of the immature selfish guy for being an immature selfish guy, especially given that he humiliated her in front of the entire tribe a few weeks ago, doesn't strike me as petty or malicious. Her snark was mostly accurate in this case, and even if it was unnecessarily smug it was amusing to see her take such a satisfaction in taking Spencer down a peg. Don't worry goons, I think Spencer will be just fine from mean old Kass's comments and from STAC Goat's "lame-o" insults.

I also think her two biggest moves (voting out Garrett and flipping to Tony's alliance) are not nearly as bad as people in this thread thing; in fact, I think voting out Garrett was a decidedly good move. She's not the best player this season, but she's far from the worst and if nothing else she's an entertaining character who's making bold moves and I happily anticipate her return in some future season.

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