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I think people who want to spend their own money to short China are foolish. The government has enough control over the financial sectors to cook the book however they want. They can make an actual recession not appear as a recession. China would have to be in actual slow down for a few years before it shows. Also, I don't have number to back me up, but my feeling is China still has a lot of headroom to tax the manufacturing/export business when push comes to shove. Its not like the like of Thailand and Vietnam can pick up the enormous orders from Walmart. One big hurricane can shut down the country of Thailand. The infrastructure is not ready. China can just make up some new tax (in the name of environmental or whatever) to tax the Dongguan factories. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Apr 14, 2014 |
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Apr 14, 2014 06:47
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| # ¿ May 6, 2024 11:22 |
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Russia and China to Conduct Joint Naval Drills in East China Sea. This was announced last week too. So Beijing must have planned this.
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May 8, 2014 12:29
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Well at least Kaiser Kuo will be able to afford an apartment in Beijing.
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May 11, 2014 01:29
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China must have negotiated a decent price. Tsar Putin got China to back them up on the Ukraine issue and Russia didn't say anything about Diaoyu Island/South China sea.
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May 23, 2014 03:44
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Did you guys read the article Cultural Imperial posted? China is doing another round of mini-stimulus package. I know alot of people in China are waiting for the property price drop so they can finally afford an apartment.
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Jun 2, 2014 04:15
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Cultural Imperial posted:Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife. Only time the property price legit drop in the last (15 years?) was in the later half of 2008. I remember some people even gave up on their mortgages because the apartment price on the market was actually lower than their mortgaged amount. Soon afterward the property price sprung back to getting higher and higher. Many people regretted that they didn't buy an apartment at the time.
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Jun 2, 2014 19:46
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icantfindaname posted:So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in the economy down to the very basic level, and interfere freely, if not extremely heavily, in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor. I understand this is how it work: (I am completely pulling out of my rear end so bare with me here) In the Communist party system hierarchy, its complete fractional. You have to take side as soon as you have a half way serious position in the party. That's how you advance you political career. And the party cadres who has the largest corruptions are usually the city level vice mayor, or mayor himself since secretary of the party committee is usually the more powerful position. The police chiefs who fall for corruption charges are almost always the vise police chief. The way the corruption work is that the main guy never touch the money himself. Its always the vice whatever guy that does the dirty work. You need to get work done you need to build something you always have to spend tons to money to get the government approval. The money will get distributed to the whole party hierarchy in the whole district. Of course you have to make sure you spend the money on the right fraction, because if you bet on the wrong horse when the Beijing protection falls, a whole bunch of people under the big man all fall for various corruption charges as well. Almost everyone is dirty, because that's how you get eanything done in China, so its not hard to find actual corruption charge to bring against you. And I am speaking this as a cultural thing, in China alot of times you have to grease the palms to get things done. For example, undergo surgery in the hospital you are expected to give red pockets to all the doctors and nurse involved. You don't have to pay it but most people who go in for surgeries usually do. This is just one example, the whole political system is like that, times 10. There are so many governmental bureaus that can put a stop on the project you are working on its petty much impossible to get anything done through the clean and official channel. Now if you want to know if this system is fair, and encourage competition. I don't know. Personally I have always thought Taiwan has just as much corruption, going by the things I read on the Taiwanese newspaper. But it didn't stop it from becoming a developed country. From an economic angle as long as there are no large number of party cadres cash out the money and run out of China, the money is still in China. It will get back to the economic one way or the other. If you are in a big city, go to university, graduate with a decent grade and go work for a foreign company, you actually don't have to deal with any corruption on the personal level. Maybe a couple red pockets to the kitdergarden techers and thats it. Now in regard to the anti corruption mechanism, there are always various bureaus. Rich people/entrepreneurs actually don't have a lot of power in China. It's no different from Russia. There are very few out spoken rich people in China. Alot of the people's business success are heavily tied to the regional party cadres they are aligning with. The party know all about your dirt. As soon as the protection umbrella in Beijing fall or retire, you are very well will be the next one to go. The moment the man above decide to close the net on a party official is called 双规 （double required, it stands for "required time, required location".) A couple of guys from the Discipline Inspection Commission will sudden show up unannounced. You are brought to a heavily guarded little mansion, in "required location, required time" write down all your deeds in a specific corruption investigation. The unspoken rule is that anything else you write down about a comrade for different issues that's not being investigated won't be prosecuted, for now. There is no communication with your friends and family. They will watch you and make sure you don't kill yourself too. The "double required" procedure is a party internal investigation mechanism, its only used for party officials. As you can see, the corruption in the provincial level is more likely a "secretly sanctioned corruption" as oppose to "unsanctioned corruption". I don't think anybody will ever figure out how much negative impact it has on the country. I would like to know if there is a meta way to measure it too.
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Jun 4, 2014 04:37
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FrozenVent posted:http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html I read the news earlier. At least they try to keep the corruption money inside China. Also, 3/4 of the "naked officials" rather lost their jobs then get their spouses back to China, I guess they have funneled the dirty money out of China already.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:15
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I read in one of the economy lecture that the forecoming global warming (something like 2-3 degrees in the next 80 years) will be bad for Europe and subcontinent but benefitial to countries like US and China.
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Jun 29, 2014 02:33
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Arglebargle III posted:You're Chinese. Do you think whatever course it is wasn't simply lying to you? It's from this lectures series: America and the New Global Economy Lecture 35, The Economics of Global Climate Change I will give you the exact quote, "....the economic lost according to the mid-range estimate of global warming is smaller than you might expect, at lease for the world as a whole. Standard estimates are 3 degree Celsius of warming by 2100 could lead to a fall in world GDP of 3% at that point. The reason the warming hurt some area and help some area. For example it looks likely that Russia, North America and china could benefit from global warming as their climate gets a little warmer, while say Africa, Latin America, South Asia and Western Europe probably will suffer from global warming. Also alot of world economic are not that dependent on temperature change"
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Jun 29, 2014 14:54
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computer parts posted:No, it's just the point where prediction becomes impossible. Aren't you excited we will live long enough to see the result? BTW, Japan TV NHK made a landmark documentary series "Silk Road" in the beginning of 80s when China and Japan were BFF. 1st series 12 episodes were made inside China and 2nd series 18 episodes filmed from Kashmir to Eypt. I have watched it a few times. I am convinced there were major climate change in central asia in the last 2000 years. The study in this field is still very primative.
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Jun 29, 2014 17:49
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dilbertschalter posted:Yeah, the Yangtze River Delta has been the economic/cultural heartland of China most of the last thousand years and even fairly "small" rises in sea level doom it. Here is a hilarious project for you. A sea canal that link Beijing to Tianjin and turn Beijing into a sea port. http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2014/06/21/a-new-china-dream-beijing-a-sea-port/
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Jun 30, 2014 13:42
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Word on the street is that Ma is investing into football because the current emperor, Xi is an avid football fan.
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Jul 7, 2014 01:56
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Bip Roberts posted:How much are public suicides actually a barometer of underlying economic problems? I can see them being related but it seems like it might be a pretty coarse grained canary in the coal-mine to look at these things. This is Chinese version of school shooting. There have been at lease 2-3 major instants of bus suicides. One was in Shenzhen, either 2008 or 2009. Most people climbed out. Another one in Fujian or some such small coastal city, huge number of people were burnt to death, like 40+ or something. I remember there is another recent one. I saw photos of a survivor, who was completely stunned. This incident barely kill anybody because the guy didn't use real gasoline. But yeah its very terrible. And there is no effective way to prevent it. China usually take these kind of news off newspaper websites the next day. The Uyghurs extremists chopping people up with sabers in contrast is easier to handle. What the government do is award the police and civilians who fought the attackers with huge amount of "Good Citizen" rewards. This gives the civilians incentive to fight the low-tech attackers. When that high speed train accident happened, I thought there was going to be a lot more high speed train accidents follow. But it appear the railway authority has a good handle on the high speed rail technology.
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Jul 13, 2014 20:09
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icantfindaname posted:So why exactly don't they just reform the hukou or whatever? It's not like it would be hard to do, just change the law so municipal services are based on residency. What benefit is there for that outweighs the drawbacks? Is it convenient for municipalities and local politicians? I understand the provincial level officials love it. Its the only one useful tool they have to control the population flow slightly.
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Jul 16, 2014 03:20
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I don't understand any post that complain about China's population size since China is the only country that has a population control policy.
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Aug 13, 2014 20:34
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Arglebargle III posted:Chinese people complain about China's population size constantly and rarely mention the population controls. Lets assume that's true, so you are saying you should make pointless complaint because Chinese make pointless complaint in Chinese forums?
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Aug 14, 2014 16:32
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Arglebargle III posted:The point is that it's hardly a pointless complaint. There are too many people in China. When someone on the street says that to you, you just nod. It's true. OK, I will game. What's your suggestion on China's population problem?
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Aug 20, 2014 05:54
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When China's GDP get close to the United States' GDP, there will be all kind of accounting tricks go into effect to lower the reported number. There is a Chinese saying "The bird that stick its neck out gets shot."
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Aug 25, 2014 19:29
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computer parts posted:Probably just switching to per-capita GDP. Per-capita GDP IMO is not really useful tool to describe an economic. China's economic doesn't resemble economic of the other countries in the similar per-capita blanket. When you economic is large enough, you have access to all kind of tools such as currency manipulation, Shanzhai World Bank to reshape the world economic.
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Aug 26, 2014 16:28
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caberham posted:Speaking of hilarious deliveries, anyone remember Diablo 3? Well the video game was banned in China and sellers/buyers used the code word Da Bo Luo 3. Which literally meant 3 pineapples. Hilarious. Anyone brought an iPhone 5 got 5 bags of Apples instead? I also heard a joke on Taobao goes like this, "One day a buyer ordered a phone from a Taobao seller with a slogan 'Guaranteed authentic, one fake gets ten in compensation!' which is a very popular phrase on Taobao . He opened the delivery package, 11 phones fell out..."
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Aug 30, 2014 13:11
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I have been reading some economic books recently. One interesting point about I got from Michael Pettis's "The Great Rebalancing" is that China is not really a "export economy", China is a "Investment Economy". China used about 50% of its GDP for reinvestment, which is a crazy rear end high number. It only happened twice before, Germany in the 30s and Soviet Union in the 50s. I think Beijing will try harding and harding to negociate infrastructure projects to digest the internal over supply labor force and keep the machine running. Things like the 8 billion railway lines for Uganda is kind of thing Beijing bascially build the raidroad for Uganda for free (lets face it, the money BJ lead to Uganda will never get it back), but as a mean to use Chinese labor force and make Uganda slowly pay it back with export miniral and oil resource. Beijing has been eyeing the railroad and canal projects in Thailand for a while. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Oct 12, 2014 |
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Oct 12, 2014 18:12
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You can read the list of stuff confiscated from Zhou Yongkang/family. I don't know how accurate the list is.
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Oct 12, 2014 21:51
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My Imaginary GF posted:Have a link? I don't know what Epoch Times is but thats what I found on my phone. China has tons of foreign asset/bonds oversea, more than its foreign debt. The Chinese market is not going to be affected by the oversea market that much. quote:I'm pretty certain of the sociological impact when growth slows due to the housing burst: increased civil unrest, increased inflation, decreased imports, viscious cycle which causes a rapid rise in unemployment rates and threatens global markets. Look, the housing market is not going to burst. Reason 1 the government has too much economic controlling levers in the domestic market. Reason 2 the housing market went up precisely because housing is one of the very few ways the chinese can do investment. If you put your money in the banks, which are all owned by the government btw, you get very meager interest return. Chinese civilians have almost no way to invest in oversea financial market either. ( More on this later)
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Oct 13, 2014 03:55
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4 people burnt to dead was dressed in fake police uniforms too. Crazy poo poo.
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Oct 16, 2014 05:43
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ocrumsprug posted:Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP. You can just look at the raw material import numbers, you don't have to look at China's number. Figuring out new ways to use China's over supply labor force IMO is more important than real estate "bubble". Chinese still has no other way to put their saving money except saving accounts with very low interest and real estate.
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Oct 21, 2014 22:53
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After Israel, the most democratic country in Middle East is Iran, and it got the shittiest treatment from the US.
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Oct 22, 2014 05:30
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Even Russia got poo poo from the US during the Yeltsin years. The US market was never open to Russia. And the Russia Georgia war was basically war between two democratic countries. I don't consider Russia a democratic country now but it was for a few years.
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Oct 22, 2014 05:58
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I wouldn't count Turkey as part of ME because Turkey didn't want to be counted as part of ME. I probably will count Turkey as ME now because Turkey now wants to be part of ME, also Turkey is doing things to the minority blatantly only can be justified under ME value system. Iran is till more democratic than Turkey. Iran's check and balance between the Supreme Leader, the President and Revolutionary Guard still works IMO.
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Oct 22, 2014 16:11
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icantfindaname posted:Why not both at once? Japan did it, so can China Japan's bubble was triggered by the raising yen. China hasn't allowed Yuan appropriated. As a matter of fact China has showed IMF it's willing to drag IMF mediating functions to a haul if it get any more hush criticism from IMF. I don't think China's domestic stock market will get a decent bubble in the near future. Low return in stock market and high saving rate are two sides of the same coin. If China want Chinese keep putting money in the low interest saving accounts, they wouldn't let the stock market take off.
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Dec 9, 2014 03:49
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China just increased gas tax to keep domestic gas price high after the international gas price drop. This world wide gas firesale is basically the Americans and the Arabs's conspiracy to punish the commie infidel Russkies . It's going to totally crash Venezuela by accident.
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Dec 13, 2014 06:41
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I spent the entire weekend hitting GAP stores to take advantage of their endless 10 off coupons and didn't check SA at all. I see I didn't miss anything.
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Dec 15, 2014 13:31
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Ceciltron posted:We didn't miss your crass materialism, either. I was buying GAP tacky underwears and socks for 99 cents or free, I am bleeding Corporate America, and helping out Chinese underpaid labors!
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Dec 15, 2014 22:07
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Selling land is Chinese provincial governments' main source of income. There is no chance Beijingwill let the real estate price drop if they can help it, even though the current real estate price is too high in relation to the Chinese income.
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Dec 22, 2014 16:39
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Fojar38 posted:So lots of ink has been spilled about China's attempts to "rebalance" its economy away from production and towards consumption. I'm a little bit confused as to how that's supposed to work though, because doesn't becoming a consumption-based economy necessitate also being a high income economy? China is still 82nd in the world for GDP per capita and the average Chinese income is still below $5000. How exactly are people envisioning a consumption based economy will work? I don't believe this theory personally. Consumption economic is what alot of economists want China do. I don't believe Beijing either believe in it or is doing it. I think China is still doing "investment economy". Beijing is just shifting from domestic infrastructure investment to foreign infrastructure investment. I think BJ is betting on places like India infrastructure market, high speed rail in resource rich African countries, canal projects in Nicaragua and Thailand etc etc to carry the growth in the next 10-20 years. edit: also building loving islands in South China Sea. That's basically another form of huge resource invest, for projects that doesn't count in the military budget but clearly can be used for military purpose. The only sector I see China is going full body consumption economy is the imported movie market. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 02:21 on Apr 1, 2015 |
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Apr 1, 2015 02:18
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Fojar38 posted:What of those countries don't want the Chinese to come and build a bunch of infrastructure that nobody will use? I doubt India would be keen on the prospect of the Chinese building most of their stuff for example. In fact China has cheesed off most of its neighbours in Southeast Asia as well. That leaves Africa but Africa remains a very unstable place to invest. First of all, the whole India is badly in need of infrastructure upgrade. Getting the Indians to hire Chinese companies is the hard part. As far as how well will this work out for Beijing, I don't know. I don't have stat on what percentage of GDP these foreign investments are taking up. I guess if it doesn't work out Beijing can just sell cheap weapons to Shia and Sunni countries. This world is going to hell in a hand basket.
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Apr 1, 2015 05:33
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Fojar38 posted:So apparently the inevitable overtaking of US GDP by China is going to happen around 2030 now. According to your numbers, new year's prediction will be 2038.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:06
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You can group more than half of the countries in the world in the authoritarian definition. China and Russia practice very different brands of authoritarian government. Chinese oversea diaspora is more comparable to Jews. Chinese inside China gets their own archetype. They are not comparable to the Russians.
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Apr 10, 2015 15:47
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TheBalor posted:Also, that was a very good read. The fact that none of his major targets in the anticorruption drive have been Princelings is pretty telling. Bo is princeling.
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Apr 10, 2015 19:21
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| # ¿ May 6, 2024 11:22 |
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Gail Wynand posted:Because China's success isn't just about cheap labor - it's also about good infrastructure, a relatively secure investment environment, and the specialized human/physical capital that builds up after being the world's factory for several decades. If companies just wanted cheaper labor, they'd outsource from southern China to the hinterlands but that hasn't happened nearly as quickly as analysts thought. Basically, you can source labor intensive productions (shoes, shirts etc) outside of China. For products that require heavy engineering skills (phones tablets droids electronic toys, cheap walmart appliances etc) there is no replacement for Guangdong, China. The Taiwanese are specialized in building cheap labor intensive factories all over South East Asia, you can ask them. It just take one hurricane (Thailand) or a political riot (Vietnam) to show how other South East Asian counties have inferior investment environments to Guangdong. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Apr 15, 2015 |
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Apr 15, 2015 03:56
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