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icantfindaname posted:That's why I said 'beyond the initial stages' The US economy was larger than any European economy by the post Civil War era and at that point demand was mostly internal. The US economy was never nearly as geared towards exports as China is or Japan was in its day It didn't have to, it had arable land to throw its surplus population (who in turn would eventually consume finished goods) and vast amounts of natural resources in its own borders to plunder. If anything at this point China's natural resources are dwindling which raises the question of what would actually fuel a new boom to fill the previous one.
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Aug 24, 2015 05:03
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Everyone needs at little mass "fear" now and again, it is all apart of the market stages of grief.
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Aug 24, 2015 06:30
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Teal posted:I am not very deeply vested in this or anything, but hasn't Chinese export been dropping for a while? China in many ways has already been out competed in the labor market, and unfortunately problem with cheap commodity prices is that it means it is cheaper for everyone else as well. They may very well be stuck in a lower-middle income trap, their domestic consumption simply isn't strong enough to support manufacturing growth but their labor prices are still too high to compete versus the true bottom of the barrel. Shadoer posted:Except I was under the impression that the American and European economies were doing better and consumption was expected to increase. So shouldn't that mean good times ahead for China's cheap crap? "Doing better" in a very narrow sense, growth is positive (well in the US at least) but wages are still very flat and much of the job growth that has happened is in low paying and/or part time labor. In Europe, unemployment is still high in many countries and even then many of them are struggling to grow. Japan is back in recession. It is basically a portion of a broader consumption crisis, there are plenty of factories and oil wells but demand isn't in the right place. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 09:59
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Daduzi posted:Remember, in a sense none of this is real. Stock markets operate to a large extent on a form of mass hysteria. What's real is less important than what is percieved to be real. Beijing's ham fisted attempts to shore up the stock market and devalue the RMB are causing investors to conclude that 1) the Chinese economy is nowhere near as healthy as official statistics make it out to be and 2) the CCP is far from infallible. This causes re-evaluation of investments that are predicated on Chinese growth, which causes sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs, which causes further sell-offs etc. If anything the complete lack of veracity in their statistics is probably going to be a even bigger headache, everyone is going to be assuming the worst once now that confidence has finally broken down. There is a certain massaging that goes on with all statistics, but at a certain point you lie too blatantly for too long you lose control of the narrative.
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Aug 24, 2015 10:15
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Shadoer posted:Okay China's cooking the books and the Chinese economy isn't doing as well as the government reported, and hell considering it's unemployment rate has apparently stayed strangely the same for some time now, it's possible that China is already in recession and may have been there for some time. Well the issue at this point is that the US is still doing like I said "okay" and a rout in China may not be enough to cause a recession here. That said, I don't think the Fed is going to be able to raise rates for a while, and even then QE may have to return because fiscal stimulus is politically impossible. The US may be able to stay out of a recession, it is going to be harder for the rest of the developed world with some exceptions. That said, some barely positive growth in the US isn't enough to solve the issue. I am thinking it may be more similar to the 1997 Asian Crisis than an actual 2008-09 or worse scenario. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 10:25
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Shadoer posted:Except, correct me if I'm wrong (which I probably am) a lot of companies were banking on being able to shore up their revenue by selling to the Chinese market. Heck on a darker note, the whole era of really cheap credit has been because of China... and if China's this hosed, doesn't that mean the age of cheap credit we've been enjoying going to come to an end terrifyingly soon? If anything treasuries may spike and interest rates may go down, in the short term as the world looks for a safe harbor. I don't think a collapse in China would actually affect US credit markets much. As for North America, the US itself may do okay, Mexico and Canada may be harder hit though. It is probably going to be a lot more expensive for Canadians to go across the border. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:36 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 10:32
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CommieGIR posted:That's the trick: The Chinese Government has been propping up the markets for ages, misreporting debt an dumping funds to maintain their standing. It really depends on exactly where you are and what you are invested in, but obviously China is going to be hit far harder than anywhere else. If you are in the US and not invested in energy, it very well be not a very big deal with some exceptions.
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Aug 24, 2015 20:28
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Radbot posted:So how is $50-250k in nondischargeable debt that slowly sucks at future consumption like a vampire an investment, again? Either way, the debt is overwhelmingly owned by the federal government, and therefore isn't going to work like private/semi-private debt (like mortgages).
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Aug 24, 2015 22:00
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GoutPatrol posted:Only if you plan on retiring this/next year. Yeah, unless you specifically invested in the Chinese market recently before its peak, the more prudent strategy is probably not to panic. It is also a real mistake to assume you can retire based on a "never ending bull market," that never works.
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Aug 25, 2015 00:53
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Necc0 posted:Has anyone gone back and collected all the Wall St. banks' statements assuring everyone that everything was fine when we felt the first tremors of this? Were they playing a con telling everyone else not to panic while they quietly cashed out or did they take a haircut along with everyone else? It is a bit more murky because Chinese statistics are so opaque, I am sure plenty of them thought there would be a crash and said the opposite. However, I don't know if anyone was really truly knew" because all the numbers are obvious garbage and the Chinese government itself may not even know what is actually going on. However, this thread has been pretty bearish about China for a while. If anything the latest events have re-cemented historical theories on developmental patterns that get thrown out any time a "miracle" happens. There are no miracles in economics, not even during a industrial revolution.
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Aug 25, 2015 01:58
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NEED TOILET PAPER posted:I thought the Shanghai stocks didn't open for another 40 minutes? It's 8:50 where I am right now (EST) and the stocks opened last night at 9:30. I assume they are talking about futures and pre-market trading, the proper show is in half an hour.
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Aug 26, 2015 01:59
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Often after a giant vertical dive in a market, there is often a brief "stabilization" before a more swallow decline to its ultimate bottom (2100-1800 in case of the Shanghai exchange). Markets rarely actually just collapse into nothing in a single run but slowly reach equilibrium after a initial complete panic.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:55
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sudo rm -rf posted:Except it's been dropping since the June. It's possible this is the bottom. Looking at the market at a whole, it is still obviously quite overvalued compared to where it was at the same point last year. Usually, after a bubble like the one at the moment collapses, it takes a while for it to work out before that bottom is found. It may drag out longer in China simply because the state has a stake in the market itself in quite a literal sense. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 08:39 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 08:31
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Yeah, government intervention aside, this is a pretty classic example of what happens in a unregulated marketplace and this is very much about unfettered capitalism eating people alive (and the government throwing the pensioners/small investors into the fire to try to quell it). In all honesty though, if China suddenly had a even more ideologically free market (somehow) than they have, it wouldn't have helped.
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Aug 26, 2015 23:59
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Junkyard Poodle posted:What government intervention would have saved the day on this one? Nothing can be done to advert a crash of this extent when it finally forms, the issue was pulling regulation from the market in order to form the bubble in the first place. You can to try to frame this into "the Communists and their five year plans" are the cause but this is really about a government trying to keep a economic boom going on indefinitely by pulling regulation and plenty of more "traditional" free market states do this as well. It isn't really a battle of ideologies here beyond the Chinese government being even more incompetent at doing the same thing as many western governments (that said the Eurocrisis is pretty neck and neck as far as incompetence goes). They should haven't have made the radical changes they made to regulation, and instead actually work on the myriad social, ecological and economic issues that are plaguing China (which is admittedly never going to happen). If anything throwing pensions into the fire is cited as "government intervention" when at the same time can be called another form of deregulation to feed their beast of a market. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 00:28
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Also it still has an active Maoist insurgency in part of the country they are having a difficult time stamping out. That said, I fully expect to hear more about "India's peaceful rise" in the future, if China isn't going to cut it, they are going to have to find someone else especially since India in the last year had pretty high growth. That said, their latest surge is because of considerable devaluation of the Rupee.
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Aug 27, 2015 20:53
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Fojar38 posted:Relations between the US and India are sufficiently good that hopefully people won't have to sell a "peaceful rise" narrative, not that it matters because India is even more contained by geography than China is. Japan was a firm US ally across the Cold War, and it didn't help them. Hell, there were theories circulating that Japan would rearm and attack the US. Fear-mongering doesn't really need much reality attached to it. ------- I wouldn't bet on Brazil, they were very reliant on exporting commodities to China for most of the 2000s and if China is going down they are taking Brazil and the other exporters with them. If anything the Olympics (along with the World Cup) has become a farcical white elephant in the minds of the Brazilian public for good reason.
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Aug 27, 2015 21:14
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Arglebargle III posted:That's not true, the Japanese Miracle was built on client-state favorable trade policy from the US. You think the big Japanese firms were selling their products to the Japanese in the 70s? Soviets? The relatively small economic bloc of Western-Europe-minus-Spain-and-half-of-Germany? Japan was still a US ally even if the US purposefully allowed them to have a trade advantage, if anything it was a key part of the relationship. The insanity was assuming that Japan was just "pretending" to be an ally just to rebuild and "bomb pearl harbor again." My point is the limited nature of the JDF and their relationship with the US "didn't help them" in the eyes of paranoid American conservatives and the press (including popular authors Micheal Crichton) who did their best to build up a fear of the Japanese among the public during the mid 1980s to the early 1990s. Once the property market crashed in Japan, a decade later you started seeing similar paranoia directed at China. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 05:52
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Anyway if you want to talk about ROI from a Asian bubble, look at the Nikkei over the past 25 years. It is just under about half it was before the crash of the early 1990s and if anything I think is a more readily useful example compared to US markets.
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Aug 30, 2015 02:17
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More importantly a deficit should be measured versus growth, and in the case of the US, the difference is minimal enough at this point not to be an issue, if anything the US should be spending more to stabilize growth, and reduce under employment. Ironically enough, the US if anything was one of the few countries to even have anything close to a working strategy to re balance itself after 08-09.
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Aug 31, 2015 00:02
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Another issue that isn't really talked about is how much volumes have declined in recent months in the Shanghai exchange, and that at this point the actual number of trades occurring is only a fraction of what they were even in June. Basically, either through companies delisting themselves or government decree, the Shanghai exchange has more or less has stopped functioning as it once was, and at this point probably isn't really a useful clearinghouse for prices at this point. The positive aspect of this for the government is that prices aren't falling off a cliff but it is going to keep investors out simply because no one trusts those prices. (There are some direct parallels to bitcoins here.)
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Sep 14, 2015 10:38
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Spazzle posted:What evidence do we even have that the chinese economy is growing right now? Electricity usage shrunk 3% which doesn't sound like gangbusters growth for a developing country.
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Oct 26, 2015 21:51
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The final evolution of Portlandia is a bit hosed up, but seriously I love (hate?) how so much comes together from 20th century and the 21st century into one mind numbing package. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Oct 28, 2015 |
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Oct 28, 2015 20:22
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Jumpingmanjim posted:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/china-abandons-three-decade-old-one-child-policy-to-lift-growth It has been in the cards for a while, but I think the recent crisis has caught them flatfooted. Also, it is going to take 18 years before that new generation comes of age, a bit too late to save Chinese growth.
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Oct 29, 2015 13:23
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Freezer posted:When you're manipulating the numbers at will, does it even matter? Only in the sense if you want to know what Beijing thinks it can get away with. That said, we more or less Chinese growth more or less could be anywhere between 6-3% at this point.
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Nov 9, 2015 17:00
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Toplowtech posted:I still want a thriller with Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes on how chinese companies are going to take over the world. Looper is probably the closest you are going to get.
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Mar 12, 2016 10:25
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MiddleOne posted:The steel part especially I think is the one that is running on fumes here. The international steel market has been hitting bottom quotas ever since the 2008 recession in terms of price and mostly that's because Chinese steel is competing on what I can only dub as Uber terms. They can provide the same product at a vastly cheaper price by simply not making any profit. So while steel mills have been getting decommissioned all across the world the Chinese mills keep on floating by absorbing more state loans. If you see things from the eyes of the Chinese leadership this makes sense (at least to some extent), they know what happened when SOEs were closed en masse in the former Soviet Union. Those plants are obviously overproducing but the Chinese government not only doesn't want to give up its growth objectives, it fears massive layoffs and their aftereffects. Granted, alternatively you could see Chinese steel plants as a WPA or "digging and filling holes program" it keeps people employed and diverts them from rioting in the streets.
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Nov 7, 2016 09:15
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I wonder if it is a response to Trump, a way to under cut the USD before he takes office. Remember that the RMB trades in a highly regulated band. I guess a trade war has to start somewhere. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Dec 5, 2016 |
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Dec 5, 2016 23:15
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R. Guyovich posted:imperialism being a specific stage of capitalism and not "a government doing things" goes all the way back to lenin and has plenty of theoretical backing. that definition clashing with a more broad use of the term doesn't make it an incorrect framework Admittedly, Lenin's term has a lot to due to with the time he lived and the circumstances of the Russian Civil War when imperial powers were striking across the former Russian Empire. Also, the RSFSR/USSR was in many ways ahead of its time in the degree of cultural and linguistic autonomy it promised (although obviously not political autonomy). ----------------------------------- Also, China is far from irreverent to the world economy and it doesn't take a Han nationalist to see that. China obviously reached the end of its burst phase of industrial development, right now it is probably most comparable to the Soviet Union sometime in late 1960s/early 1970s. Admittedly, an advantage the Chinese have it their not tied to a single commodity like the Soviets were (oil). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:07 on May 13, 2017 |
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May 13, 2017 15:47
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Fojar38 posted:It's not irrelevant yet but its irrelevance has been increasing as more and more barriers are erected by the CCP. Case in point: The stock market crashed again last week but nobody outside of China cared I take more as Chinese stock markets not being creditable (and not being well connected to international finance) than the Chinese economy itself being irrelevant.
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May 14, 2017 11:36
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Kassad posted:The pension problem, sorry. A combination of factors, migration from rural areas to the city has caused a regional imbalance, prices have naturally inflated more than pensions, and older Chinese people are simply living longer. Basically, slow population growth + industrialization/modernization has predictably put pressures on pensions.
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Jun 27, 2017 09:21
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oohhboy posted:There have already been riots here and there. It's only going to get worse as China keeps pushing countries into bonded slavery with their false promise of riches while they plunder them while building white elephants everywhere to boost perceived GDP leaving the locals with useless or unmaintainable structures. Granted, let's be honest, there are two sides of the coin here, most of those countries are desperate for investment in the first place because there generally ignored otherwise (including yes the legacy of decolonization/cold war). The one constant is exploitation.
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Jun 27, 2017 10:59
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Peven Stan posted:Misleading post. Total debt hit 300% of GDP, not just public debt. Total American debt to GDP ratio is 350% Yeah Chinese state debt is about 46%, the vast majority of total debt is household debt. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Jul 3, 2017 |
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Jul 3, 2017 14:07
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Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Wait, I thought it was (often state owned) corporate debt? Yeah, I forgot to edit that post, but yeah it mostly corporate debt, admittedly though there are close links with most Chinese corporations and the government. It is very much, in my opinion, the closest analog is Japan in the late 1970s/1980s after the main phase of high growth dropped from the 1960s/early 1970s. That said China does still have two things going for them compared to Japan of the early 1990s, they are still relatively undeveloped compared to Japan of that period (although catching up) and its population growth is still higher (very slowly accelerating). I could see China's grow slowly stagnant, but I don't know if it would actually largely flatline like Japan but simply be closer to the international norm (2-3%). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:01 on Jul 4, 2017 |
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Jul 4, 2017 07:30
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